Bracketology

[whovous]

Iowa up 6. So, we should be cheering for Wiscy over Iowa?

If Iowa wins this one, they have to lose at home against PSU.

 

[schnaurt]

41 brackets

We are in 33 of the 59 that were updated today.

 

[ILLINI76]

I think were going to have 3 bad losses when it's all done. Indiana and Penn State will have an RPI of over a 100.

 

[ejam21]

I agree. They've had a great season and if they get to the MVC Championship game, they should be in without question.

I do find it somewhat humorous in some of our fans puffing our chests out on how deserving we are over a team like Illinois State, who has played great since December.

Three weeks ago, we're ready to fire the coach, the team wasn't NIT worthy.....The SFC was on the verge of being burned to the ground....

ISU is going to win between 25-28 games, they won their conference regular season championship and we'll see what happens this weekend. If they get to the Championship game, lose to Wichita State and get left out.....That would be BRUTAL. They've done the work.

We still have work to do.

Yea they looked great losing by 41 to wichita st...in feb
they played 24 of their games vs RPI 100+teams...a lot of the bubble teams would look pretty good vs that sched.
They have ONE top 50 win....ONE
two top 100 wins to our 11...
They have as many bad losses as decent wins (lost to 236 murray state and 114 tulsa).
Travesty? no. They should schedule someone OOC or go to a conf that has some teams if they don't like it.

 

[StateFarmCenter]

Middle Tenneesee hangs on to beat 6-24 FIU by 3.

Sucks, I think that would have ended their at large hopes. Now root for them to win cusa tournament.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

I think were going to have 3 bad losses when it's all done. Indiana and Penn State will have an RPI of over a 100.

PSU might hurt. I think the committee would realize the IU we lost to was not that bad of a team.

 

[Illinell]

I love following the brackets (especially now that we're on the positive side of the conversations).

However one thing that stands out to me is our momentum. After the last few games, I feel better about this team than I have felt about an Illini squad in a very long time. We can play with a lot of good teams if we keep this up.

 

[Cheez]

Now that Minnesota has won, is there any outcome where Illinois doesn't play round1 vs Iowa and round2 vs Purdue now?

Coming into tonight, there were 512 ways the remaining 9 games of the season could play out.

Illinois was a 7 seed in 64 / 512 (12.5%) and in the 8/9 game in 448 (87.5%)

Scenarios:
#8 seed vs. Iowa: 160 / 512 (31.25%)
#9 seed vs. Iowa: 128 / 512 (25%)
#9 seed vs. Michigan: 128 / 512 (25%)
#7 seed vs. Nebraska: 48 / 512 (9.375%)
#8 seed vs. Nebraska: 32 / 512 (6.25%)
#7 seed vs. Ohio State: 16 / 512 (3.125%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

After Minnesota beat Nebraska only 256 scenarios remained. Of those, there are still 32 / 256 (12.5%) where Illinois is the 7 seed, and 224 (87.5%) where they do not.

Scenarios:
#8 seed vs. Iowa: 96 / 256 (37.5%)
#9 seed vs. Iowa: 64 / 256 (25%)
#9 seed vs. Michigan: 64 / 256 (25%)
#7 seed vs. Nebraska: 16 / 256 (6.25%)
#7 seed vs. Ohio State: 16 / 256 (6.25%)

Note: This is just a grouping of all possible scenarios, and does not assume the likelihood of an individual event occurring. If someone wants to provide me the win likelihood of the final seven games, I would love to weigh each scenario that way.

 

[FatGreg]

If Iowa splits and Michigan loses at Nebraska, we end up with the 7 seed against either Nebraska or OSU, right? Assuming we win at RU, that is.

 

[Cheez]

If Iowa splits and Michigan loses at Nebraska, we end up with the 7 seed against either Nebraska or OSU, right? Assuming we win at RU, that is.

Correct.

 

[BillyBob1]

If Iowa splits and Michigan loses at Nebraska, we end up with the 7 seed against either Nebraska or OSU, right? Assuming we win at RU, that is.

Nebraska looked terrible again tonight.

 

[whovous]

Can Nebraska still get as high as a ten seed?

 

[Deleted member 236589]

Yea they looked great losing by 41 to wichita st...in feb
they played 24 of their games vs RPI 100+teams...a lot of the bubble teams would look pretty good vs that sched.
They have ONE top 50 win....ONE
two top 100 wins to our 11...
They have as many bad losses as decent wins (lost to 236 murray state and 114 tulsa).
Travesty? no. They should schedule someone OOC or go to a conf that has some teams if they don't like it.

You're describing every "mid-major" outside of Gonzaga. You're also talking about wanting a tournament of only Power 5 schools. This is a completely different discussion however. What do you think we'd say if ISU asked us to play in Normal? Hell no! That would be Whitman's answer.

So, you're going to penalize them for not playing anybody, saying their only option to increase their SOS is to go and play 4 or 5 true road games against top 20 teams to compensate for the 10-15 resume building opportunities that the P5 schools have pre-built into their schedules year in and year out?

Forget the numbers for a second.....I look at three teams that should make it just from watching them play. Middle Tennessee, Wichita State and ISU. If you think that we would go into any of those gyms and feel secure about the outcome, I think your wrong.

However, based on metrics, due to $$$$ and how the system is set up, seems you'd rather have a 10th place ACC team over an elite mid major.....Each time, every time. The RPI, BPI, blah, blah, blah....Are always going to say so.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Iowa wins @ Wisconsin. They have good wins & 2 in a row on the road. RPI is still really high, but they are probably on the fringe of the bubble now. Not that we needed any more company.

 

[haasi]

Iowa wins @ Wisconsin. They have good wins & 2 in a row on the road. RPI is still really high, but they are probably on the fringe of the bubble now. Not that we needed any more company.

ya now they can feel free to lose to PSU - that would kill two birds

 

[Cheez]

Can Nebraska still get as high as a ten seed?

Possible Scenarios after Iowa defeats Wisconsin: 128
Of those, Illinois is a 7 seed in 16 (12.5%), and an 8 or 9 seed in 112 (87.5%)

Scenarios:
#9 vs. Michigan: 48 / 128 (37.5%)
#9 vs. Iowa: 48 / 128 (37.5%)
#8 vs. Iowa: 16 / 128 (12.5%)
#7 vs. Nebraska: 8 / 128 (6.25%)
#7 vs. Ohio State: 8 / 128 (6.25%)

Note: This is just a grouping of all possible scenarios, and does not assume the likelihood of an individual event occurring. If someone wants to provide me the win likelihood of the final seven games, I would love to weigh each scenario that way.

 

[Tygor]

Iowa wins @ Wisconsin. They have good wins & 2 in a row on the road. RPI is still really high, but they are probably on the fringe of the bubble now. Not that we needed any more company.

If Iowa and Michigan both win, we get Michigan in the 8/9 game? That's an awful draw if so.

 

[frozenrope9190]

Man, Wisconsin is hitting the skids, aren't they?

 

[Chris Yates]

Iowa wins @ Wisconsin. They have good wins & 2 in a row on the road. RPI is still really high, but they are probably on the fringe of the bubble now. Not that we needed any more company.

Will this push Iowa into the RPI top 100, and thereby give us two more RPI top-100 wins, though?

 

[Tygor]

Possible Scenarios after Iowa defeats Wisconsin: 128
Of those, Illinois is a 7 seed in 16 (12.5%), and an 8 or 9 seed in 112 (87.5%)

Scenarios:
#9 vs. Michigan: 48 / 128 (37.5%)
#9 vs. Iowa: 48 / 128 (37.5%)
#8 vs. Iowa: 16 / 128 (12.5%)
#7 vs. Nebraska: 8 / 128 (6.25%)
#7 vs. Ohio State: 8 / 128 (6.25%)

Note: This is just a grouping of all possible scenarios, and does not assume the likelihood of an individual event occurring. If someone wants to provide me the win likelihood of the final seven games, I would love to weigh each scenario that way.

According to kenpom:

Michigan over Nebraska (64%)
Iowa over Penn State (68% but that's before UW game)
Illinois over Rutgers (59%)
Ohio State over Indiana (57%)

Any others you need?

 

[Chris Yates]

If Iowa and Michigan both win, we get Michigan in the 8/9 game? That's an awful draw if so.

I'd rather play Michigan than Iowa. We have absolutely nothing to gain in another game against Iowa.

 

[ILLINI76]

Could the game against Michigan be a winner gets in to the tournament. Plus playing Michigan could give us another 50 RPI win.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

Will this push Iowa into the RPI top 100, and thereby give us two more RPI top-100 wins, though?

They were already in the top 100, now at 73. This does ensure they stay in the top 100, they might have slipped out with another loss.

 

[whovous]

If Iowa Michigan and Illinois win their last games, it will be Michigan and Illinois in the 8-9 game.

 

[StateFarmCenter]

Possible Scenarios after Iowa defeats Wisconsin: 128
Of those, Illinois is a 7 seed in 16 (12.5%), and an 8 or 9 seed in 112 (87.5%)

Scenarios:
#9 vs. Michigan: 48 / 128 (37.5%)
#9 vs. Iowa: 48 / 128 (37.5%)
#8 vs. Iowa: 16 / 128 (12.5%)
#7 vs. Nebraska: 8 / 128 (6.25%)
#7 vs. Ohio State: 8 / 128 (6.25%)

Note: This is just a grouping of all possible scenarios, and does not assume the likelihood of an individual event occurring. If someone wants to provide me the win likelihood of the final seven games, I would love to weigh each scenario that way.

Purdue 57%
Wisconsin 73% (albeit tonight's loss not quite reflected)
Maryland 67%
Illinois 59%
Iowa 68% (tonight not reflected)
Ohio St 57%
Michigan 64%

Using kenpom