Bracketology

[thunderwear]

Meh, we’ll see I guess. When I posted that they had 5 games left and 4 were against ranked opponents. They were looking like they might go 18-14 with very few quality wins.

The blowout against Iowa probably punched their ticket to the dance as long as they still beat NW in their 2nd to last game.

I really think the hardest thing for us this year, was that we didn't win any of the close games early in the season. Had we pulled a few of them, this season would look much different.

Ohio State has generally scheduled poorly and just focused on not losing bad games. This season is one of those seasons. I like where we stand with Underwood, more than I like where Ohio State stands... but, wait a few classes and that could change.

 

[bobbob]

I really think the hardest thing for us this year, was that we didn't win any of the close games early in the season. Had we pulled a few of them, this season would look much different.

We beat UNLV in a close one. The only two close games we lost before 1/1 were ND and FAU. Flipping two games from OOC wouldn't change much about this season. We'd still be well below .500 and not going to the NIT.

 

[Deleted member 11241]

We beat UNLV in a close one. The only two close games we lost before 1/1 were ND and FAU. Flipping two games from OOC wouldn't change much about this season. We'd still be well below .500 and not going to the NIT.

Georgetown, Gonzaga and Ohio State were all close games before 1/1 that we could have won but didn't have enough to finish. Add those 3 to the 2 games you mentioned, and we are at 15-13 (7-10). Win out our remaining 3 games and have a good showing in the BTT and we are easily on the bubble looking in. With our SOS we could very well be talking about an at large bid

 

[bobbob]

Georgetown, Gonzaga and Ohio State were all close games before 1/1 that we could have won but didn't have enough to finish. Add those 3 to the 2 games you mentioned, and we are at 15-13 (7-10). Win out our remaining 3 games and have a good showing in the BTT and we are easily on the bubble looking in. With our SOS we could very well be talking about an at large bid

I consider close games to be within 5 pt or OT.

We lost to tOSU by 10 and were down by double digits most the last 10 minutes... It was not a close game in any sense. Gonzaga put us away pretty well the last 3.5 minutes. I'll concede GT, they got most their winning margin in the last minute.

 

[ChiefIllini]

We lost to tOSU by 10 and were down by double digits most the last 10 minutes... It was not a close game in any sense. Gonzaga put us away pretty well the last 3.5 minutes. I'll concede GT, they got most their winning margin in the last minute.

With 17 seconds left, a red hot Trent Frazier air balled a wide open 3 pt shot to give us the lead. That my friend is borderline textbook for a game to be considered close.

 

[bobbob]

And we'd still be sub 500 and not going to the NIT. Losing close games wasn't the issue this year. Losing too many games was.

 

[ChiefIllini]

And we'd still be sub 500 and not going to the NIT. Losing close games wasn't the issue this year. Losing too many games was.

Honestly, only reason I'd like to see this team make the NIT is because I think it would be a nice reward for the kids. As a fan, a consolidation bracket bid is something I couldn't care less about. That being said, they removed the 500 mark criteria for the NIT. Not saying we have a good shot, but something to keep in mind.

Losing close games has been an issue the past two years. Not the main issue, as you point out, but still an issue nonetheless. Good teams play well under pressure, and we haven't. Not saying your criteria for close games is wrong, but personally, my criteria is within ~ 5 points under 4 minutes. By my count 8 close games were lost this year: Georgetown, Gonzaga, ND, FAU, IU, NW, UW, and PSU.

There were a few of those that shouldn't have been close either. It got a lot better this year (compared to the previous one), but winning close games is one of the most important markers of a "good" team. Closing games is huge and BU has talked about it being an issue. No, it isn't single highhandedly holding us back, yes there are bigger issue, but winning these kind of games is something that needs to happen.

 

[Deleted member 8632]

Kaleb Wesson suspended for violation of athletics department policy. Looks like he will be back before the season ends. Not good for a big10 bubble team.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Kaleb Wesson suspended for violation of athletics department policy. Looks like he will be back before the season ends. Not good for a big10 bubble team.

Their weed policy is a little more liberal than ours.

 

[bobbob]

Honestly, only reason I'd like to see this team make the NIT is because I think it would be a nice reward for the kids. As a fan, a consolidation bracket bid is something I couldn't care less about. That being said, they removed the 500 mark criteria for the NIT. Not saying we have a good shot, but something to keep in mind.

Losing close games has been an issue the past two years. Not the main issue, as you point out, but still an issue nonetheless. Good teams play well under pressure, and we haven't. Not saying your criteria for close games is wrong, but personally, my criteria is within ~ 5 points under 4 minutes. By my count 8 close games were lost this year: Georgetown, Gonzaga, ND, FAU, IU, NW, UW, and PSU.

There were a few of those that shouldn't have been close either. It got a lot better this year (compared to the previous one), but winning close games is one of the most important markers of a "good" team. Closing games is huge and BU has talked about it being an issue. No, it isn't single highhandedly holding us back, yes there are bigger issue, but winning these kind of games is something that needs to happen.

Five of our wins (UNLV, Maryland, MSU, Rutgers, tOSU) would meet your criteria too. 5-8 (35%) for a team that is 10-18 (38%) doesn't sound that far off to me. It's easy to point out all the close losses, but unless you take an honest look at the close wins it is meaningless. Being 5-13 in the unclose games is the issue. Getting better at close games isn't going to solve that.

Good teams aren't good because they win close games, they win close games because they are likely better than the other team. Feel free to point out any team that has a better record in close games than unclose games.

The path to the NCAA tournament is not going 5-13 in unclose and 13-0 in close games; it is going 13-5 in unclose and 7-6 in close.

 

[ChiefIllini]

Five of our wins (UNLV, Maryland, MSU, Rutgers, tOSU) would meet your criteria too. 5-8 (35%) for a team that is 10-18 (38%) doesn't sound that far off to me. It's easy to point out all the close losses, but unless you take an honest look at the close wins it is meaningless. Being 5-13 in the unclose games is the issue. Getting better at close games isn't going to solve that.

Good teams aren't good because they win close games, they win close games because they are likely better than the other team. Feel free to point out any team that has a better record in close games than unclose games.

The path to the NCAA tournament is not going 5-13 in unclose and 13-0 in close games; it is going 13-5 in unclose and 7-6 in close.

At this point, I agree with you big picture wise. Thing is, teams can definitely have better records in unclose games, than close games. Call it what you want, but I'm essentially saying you need to have composure and clutchness if you want to be a good team. No I don't have examples, but their are definitely teams that wound up having major disparities in blow wins for and close games lost.

This year, the team has improved in not making a ton of late game mistakes. But just because they might go 13-5 doesn't automatically mean they dont go 5-8 in close games again. Like I said, close game results is not the main issue this team has, but it isn't something to chalk up to some winning percentage comparison between unclose and close games. If you want to be known as a trully good/great team, you have to be good in close games. You can't ignore them and hope winning percentage in them magically increases because your overall winning percentage does.

 

[thunderwear]

We beat UNLV in a close one. The only two close games we lost before 1/1 were ND and FAU. Flipping two games from OOC wouldn't change much about this season. We'd still be well below .500 and not going to the NIT.

Don’t forget Gonzaga. That would flip this season completely. Probably set us on a different trajectory.

 

[thunderwear]

And we'd still be sub 500 and not going to the NIT. Losing close games wasn't the issue this year. Losing too many games was.

With our strength of schedule, turning a few games into wins would be the difference between nothing and I’m bubble consideration. Especially a team like Gonzaga. Consider Tevian was out for many of the games, it is a much easier narrative to sell

 

[bobbob]

With our strength of schedule, turning a few games into wins would be the difference between nothing and I’m bubble consideration. Especially a team like Gonzaga. Consider Tevian was out for many of the games, it is a much easier narrative to sell

We'll see what happens to PSU, because they are pretty much us with a couple more wins. They would have V-Tech/Michigan wins that stack up against the hypothetical Gonzaga/MSU wins. They are right next to us in SOS. They are the resume you are arguing for.

I think they're sitting home. Everyone who says we were a couple games away should think they are bubble.

 

[illini80]

Are we back to being the best 10-18 team in the country? I love that argument.

 

[Truffaut]

We'll see what happens to PSU, because they are pretty much us with a couple more wins. They would have V-Tech/Michigan wins that stack up against the hypothetical Gonzaga/MSU wins. They are right next to us in SOS. They are the resume you are arguing for.

I think they're sitting home. Everyone who says we were a couple games away should think they are bubble.

If Penn State wins out, including a win at Wisconsin, they'll be 8-12 and probably tied for 8th in the Big Ten. From there two BTT wins (including the #1 seed) would have to punch their Dance card. But what if they win out and lose their second BTT game?

 

[BlueLeader]

We are in danger of a BTT 11 seed. That cannot happen. We need to beat Indiana, and stay 2-1 in the stretch here or we have no control.

 

[JamesB]

What’s our best case scenario bracket wise going into the BTT? I’d like a 10 seed opposite OSU, with the winner taking on a MSU team taking on water. Thoughts?

 

[Truffaut]

A ten seed seems pretty hard to create.
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb
This bracket generator has been mentioned several times in this thread. It uses Sagarin to predict the outcome of the remaining games and create a "starter" bracket. You can change any result to see how the bracket changes.

The current bracket has us beating NW and losing our last two games and gives us an 11 seed. That means we play on Wednesday. If you change the Indiana game to a win and change nothing else, we are an 8 seed. If you change PSU to a win as well, and leave the rest as-is, we are still an 8 seed. We need to win all three games AND see OSU lose at NW or lose at home to Wisconsin to get us a 7 seed. That strikes as our most-likely route to the 7-10 game, but it is not all that likely. The bracket has us playing Indiana again under that scenario.

 

[JamesB]

11 seed would be disappointing. The Beberman predictor has us winning against NW and Indiana and losing to Penn State, earning a first round bye.

 

[illini80]

11 seed would be disappointing. The Beberman predictor has us winning against NW and Indiana and losing to Penn State, earning a first round bye.

A few games ago I thought winning the last 3 was a pretty good bet. If we play the way we did the last couple that won't happen. Settle down, play hard, no hero ball and we will be fine.

 

[WhiteHorseWings]

What’s our best case scenario bracket wise going into the BTT? I’d like a 10 seed opposite OSU, with the winner taking on a MSU team taking on water. Thoughts?

I think we root hard for the gophers over Purdue and win out. Then we get gophers followed by sparty.