How could a team be more efficient but not as good as a less efficient team? If you score more pts per possession and give up fewer points per possession, weighted with SOS, then aren’t you the better team?
Bracketology
- Status
How could a team be more efficient but not as good as a less efficient team? If you score more pts per possession and give up fewer points per possession, weighted with SOS, then aren’t you the better team?
As much as I want to agree, SOS is important, but we still needed to win games with a tough schedule. So I don't think SOS argument would hold weight. If anything, some of the teams we are competing with will have better records against similar opponents.
Having said that, if Illinois can win 5 of the next 6 and run to the semifinals or finals of the BTT, I think the selection committee will strongly consider this team. I believe the selection committee is created for this exact reason. To bring in the best teams. If we win like that down the stretch, which includes a few more wins against top seeded teams, we will be an appealing selection. There is legitimate rationale for why we weren't winning early in the season, the team was young. And the young team pushed teams like Gonzaga and Michigan. If we win this many end of season games, the storyline will be appealing and the narrative will play in our favor.
But we have quite a few tough wins ahead. And, Penn State will not be a walk in the park.
Maybe they prefer to play at different tempos and the higher ranked team isn't as efficient when the other team changes their tempo.
Maybe one team is really good at FTs, but the other team is better at not putting them on the line.
Because the transitive property doesn't really work in sports.
Alternatively - if the most efficient team is always the best, why do different efficiency systems (kenpom, t-rank) spit out different rankings?
How would you justify putting a team in over a team from their conference with similar SOS/records that beat them twice just because they were .0005 more efficient overall?
"more efficient" and "better" are correlated, but they are not the same thing.
You could be right on this but there could be another reason the committee would give the Illini strong consideration....if the Illini some how were on the bubble so to speak and be selected to the field, we would definitely be a cinderella team...give the start of the season and the number of underclassmen that we play and the story of Giorgi and his family....the press would be salivating over this story....much the same way Loyola and Sister whatever her name is was the story and cinderella team of last years tourney....doubt that would enter into the committee's decision making process....but story lines like these sure don't hurt viewer ratings and publicity....this would be a pipe dream for the bkball program, but never hurts to dream
A lot of you forget that Trent didn’t play against Gtown, Jones didn’t play for 8 games, Trent got hurt in the ND game, DeLaRosa is coming off a torn ACL...if we really are knit-picking, and we end up with 17/18 wins, and our SOS, Q1/2 record, and advanced stats are all favorable, those factors may play a role.
In terms of the “cinderella” story, it may play a factor as well. Look at Syracuse, they’re on the bubble and get in basically every year. We are a B1G team, on the rise, young, have good storylines etc. I think we have a real shot if we finish 5-1, and 2-1.
In terms of the “cinderella” story, it may play a factor as well. Look at Syracuse, they’re on the bubble and get in basically every year. We are a B1G team, on the rise, young, have good storylines etc. I think we have a real shot if we finish 5-1, and 2-1.
Last edited:
If we win out and the best scenarios regarding our opponents that are near quadrant boarders come to fruition, our team sheet looks like this going into the Big Ten Tournament:
Q1:7-9
Q2:5-5
Q3:2-1
Q4:2-0
This would involve Georgetown (79 to 75) and Northwestern (home) (77 to 75) going from Q3 to Q2, and Nebraska (39-31) and Northwestern (away) (77 to 75) from Q2 to Q1.
Other teams on the boarder that could slide into the wrong direction:
Florida Atlantic (148, cutoff 160)
UNLV (160, cutoff 160
)
E Tennessee St (72, cutoff 75)
Missouri (92, cutoff 100)
Xavier (95, cutoff 100)
Penn State (70, cutoff 75)
Food for thought. These fun scenarios could end any time now, so better enjoy it.
BTW, Illini are 6-3 since I started growing a mustache, so I am doing my part.
Q1:7-9
Q2:5-5
Q3:2-1
Q4:2-0
This would involve Georgetown (79 to 75) and Northwestern (home) (77 to 75) going from Q3 to Q2, and Nebraska (39-31) and Northwestern (away) (77 to 75) from Q2 to Q1.
Other teams on the boarder that could slide into the wrong direction:
Florida Atlantic (148, cutoff 160)
UNLV (160, cutoff 160
)E Tennessee St (72, cutoff 75)
Missouri (92, cutoff 100)
Xavier (95, cutoff 100)
Penn State (70, cutoff 75)
Food for thought. These fun scenarios could end any time now, so better enjoy it.
BTW, Illini are 6-3 since I started growing a mustache, so I am doing my part.
By "better", I meant better overall season/resume. Obviously the things you mentioned come into play when 2 teams actually square up on the court. But it's impossible for the committee to factor these style of play differences in when selecting teams.
Different systems use slightly different formulas, right? That's why it's best to use an aggregate of respected systems.
Good point. Maybe if teams are virtually tied then use a tiebreaking procedure. Head to head, then number of Q1 wins for example. Still no need for a committee.
When you aggregate several systems, you make a choice on how much to weigh each one. When you create a tiebreaker, you are adding in decisions about what counts as a tie and how to break it.
You are basically moving the committee (human) decision making process from post-season to pre-season. You are making these decisions and then hoping that they look right after the season ends. I would rather have those decisions made after the season is over and we have all the data.
There is no way to make a system that doesn't have human input at some point. There isn't going to be a perfect system. I prefer the stats to be tools to help humans make informed decisions and the human factor to be at the end to catch any statistical anomalies.
I'm a huge fan of the committee looking at kenpom and other advanced stats. I think it makes them more informed. I'm just not sold on any of them being more than a tool.
Tacomallini
- Washington State
I blame the 3 losses on your unwillingness to go full beard.
ILLINI76
- Springfiled, IL.
There's only 1 possible ticket for us to get into the dance, and that's winning the BTT. We'd need to string together 4 very good games, which I think we can do. We're playing really good basketball right now, and while any team might be hot against us, I think we're playing well enough to beat almost anyone under normal circumstances. Having watched the BTT over the years, it's pretty rare for a team that has to play extra days, to win it. I think Iowa did it once playing on Thursday. I know UConn once won the Big East tournament as a double-bye. I just think it's a big ask to play a game every day and compete with a team that isn't as fatigued.
Should be exciting to watch given we have a chance, and we know going into it that we need to survive and advance.
Should be exciting to watch given we have a chance, and we know going into it that we need to survive and advance.
That worked out okay for UConn in the end. I think we'd all take that fate if it had to come to it.
haasi
- New York
Ucomn
2011 UConn was 9-9 in big east and 9 seed in their conference tourney. Won five games in five days, then won ncaa tourney as a 3 seed. Remarkable run. Kemba.
2011 UConn was 9-9 in big east and 9 seed in their conference tourney. Won five games in five days, then won ncaa tourney as a 3 seed. Remarkable run. Kemba.
My post season analysis: Begins March fourteenth. When you lose, the season is over.
As the season has progressed, we have been able to put up longer and longer win streaks. Hopefully our longest win streak of the year is our last one.
As the season has progressed, we have been able to put up longer and longer win streaks. Hopefully our longest win streak of the year is our last one.
illinihawk16
- Chicago
Spot on.
The Dave
- CA
The only problem with that statement is that it would also be true if we didn't win any more games this season.
The only problem with that statement is that it would also be true if we didn't win any more games this season.
you are correct, but if you think that, you haven't been paying attention.
Expectations. If they don’t win a game, all will be disappointed. Win at least 2 games, that’s great, setups well for next year. Can’t go into BTT expecting 3 or 4 wins, cross that bridge if they get there.
At this point I'd be really disappointed if we did not get a first round bye, and if they hold serve on Saturday it'll be really difficult to avoid one even if they lose out for the rest of the season as I don't see fewer than four teams finishing with six wins or less. That's great and exactly where we want to be, but it also sets up a third-round game against one of the top two seeds. We can beat any team in the league, but it's still going to be a major event if we wind up winning two games in this tournament given the above.
If we come in somewhere between a 7 and 10 seed, I think that we have about a 1% chance of winning the tournament. The needle doesn't really move until you get to the semis, but even then you're in the 10-15% range depending on who you draw over the last two games. I will say that if this team wins four of the next five and then gets to the tournament finals, you've got an interesting conversation on your hands -- 10-10 in the league, and a neutral court win over another top 10 and top 20 team to boot, but a losing record (barely). I doubt the committee has the guts to take us even if we stack up favorably with the rest of the bubble, and then you *really* kick yourself over some of the early losses.
First things first, though. Saturday is a critical game, you can basically pencil in the bye if you get it.
illinihawk16
- Chicago
Win 3 of 5 down the stretch plus 1 in the BTT and we end up at 14-19, which I think would put us squarely in the conversation, but not necessarily guaranteed a spot. Doable
There was a website that was pretty popular on this forum for NIT bubble watch or NIT seeding scenarios over the past few years. Maybe somebody can help me remember the website.
illinihawk16
- Chicago
There doesn't seem to be a lot right now (this is all I found : https://www.dratings.com/predictor/bracketology/ ), but it looks like some of the other websites may not publish projections until early March.
Deleted member 29907
D
Guest
I don't get OSU being a 10 seed - every time I've watched them they just look very so so.
I really liked Dance Card (https://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm), but I can't tell if they are still active this year or not.
- Status