Bracketology

#2
"The Good Land", WI
That 7 seed looks pretty attainable. We have to win out. Minnesota's last two look to be Ls. Ohio State has to play at Wisconsin. I believe we hold the head-to-head tie breaker against both Rutgers and Ohio State.

Based on the generator, we win out and the above happens to OSU and Minn, we get the 7 seed.
 
#3
Assuming no upsets, looks like if Illinois loses the next 2, they don't get a bye. Have to win at least 1/2. If they beat Penn State, they get the 7/10 matchup against Ohio State and then Mich St. If they beat Indiana, they get in the 8/9 matchup with Purdue awaiting the winner.
 
#6
Most beatable of the top 4. Easiest way to the NCAA is through MSU.
Yeah exactly. To get them, we need to beat PSU. The Indiana game is irrelevant in that winning it only decides if we get purdue & a bye, and that scenario, or playing 5 games, makes NCAA basically an impossibility.
 
#7
Careful what we wish for... the winner of 7/10 is going to play either MSU or Mich. I sort of want Michigan, I think we are due to beat them. Nearly certain the winner of the MSU/UM final game of the season determines who is the 2 and who is the 3 seed.
 
#8
Looking (probably too far) forward, out of playing Purdue, UM, MSU, or Wisconsin, what is everyones order of preferred opponent? Personally Wisc, MSU, Purdue, UM is my order. UM over PU just because I think they are always a scary team this time of year, and they have more weapons than PU. Wisconsin is clearly the choice, but that would probably be at best a Saturday matchup for us.
 
#9
That 7 seed looks pretty attainable. We have to win out. Minnesota's last two look to be Ls. Ohio State has to play at Wisconsin. I believe we hold the head-to-head tie breaker against both Rutgers and Ohio State.

Based on the generator, we win out and the above happens to OSU and Minn, we get the 7 seed.
I would prefer to stay an 8/9...not really liking our chances of knocking off any of PU/MSU/UM, but if you are dreaming of a miracle give me a 1 seed - 4 seed, vs 2 seed - 3 seed - where we only have to beat one of the top 3 to get to the finals, assuming we can even get through our 2nd round game.
 
Likes: Berg88
#10
Here are the updated Big Ten standings after this weekend, heading into the final week of play:

Purdue (15-3)

Michigan (15-4)
Michigan State (14-4)

Wisconsin (12-6)

Maryland (12-7)

Iowa (10-8)

Ohio State (8-10)
Minnesota (8-10)

Illinois (7-11)
Rutgers (7-11)

Indiana (6-12)

Nebraska (5-13)
Penn State (5-13)

Northwestern (3-15)

We have GOT to beat Indiana and prevent them from jumping up to our spot and making us play for our (BTT run hope's) lives at Penn State. Assuming we beat IU and lose at PSU (and my predictions of which teams win this week come true), here are the projected seeds and matchups in Chicago:

WEDNESDAY
(13) Nebraska vs. (12) Penn State
(14) Northwestern vs. (11) Indiana

THURSDAY
(9) Minnesota vs. (8) Illinois
UNL/PSU vs. (5) Maryland
(10) Rutgers vs. (7) Ohio State
NU/IU vs. (6) Iowa

FRIDAY
MINN/UI vs. (1) Purdue
UNL/PSU/UMD vs. (4) Wisconsin
RU/OSU vs. (2) Michigan State
NU/IU/Iowa vs. (3) Michigan

If we could somehow get revenge at PSU and win out, we would (presumably) tie Ohio State for the seven seed and get the tie breaker ... that would be absolutely huge, as we would get Rutgers first round and a rematch with MSU (instead of Purdue) in round two.
 
#11
Woodridge, IL
How do the tiebreakers work such that most are suggesting we have the tiebreaker over OSU? We lost 2x to them and we have no wins against PU. Is it presuming that PSU/MSU tie and we would be 1-1 over the co-champs?
We beat Ohio State in Columbus. They beat us at the United Center.
 
#12
How do the tiebreakers work such that most are suggesting we have the tiebreaker over OSU? We lost 2x to them and we have no wins against PU. Is it presuming that PSU/MSU tie and we would be 1-1 over the co-champs?
We are 1-1 vs. OSU (remember the United Center game in December), and we have a better record vs. the top 2 than they do ... at least according to the simulator I plugged this into.
 
Likes: ChiefIllini
#13
Still lots of senarios in play, Most will play out before the IU game. BL, Need to win one of last two. Might as well win the 1st.

BTW Dan, thanks for the reference to the calculator.
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#15
I'm curious to see how our style of play holds up across the long weekend. Will the Illini be more fatigued than the opponent as the weekend progresses? Or, will all teams be fatigued, and the Illini will be better suited creating an advantage?

Seems like they faded in the preseason tournament after playing Gonzaga to the wire. It would be nice to see them get a few wins in the BTT.
 
#16
Before (during?) the game they showed an "as of right now" BTT seeding. Had us as 10 going against OSU as the 7, IIRC. I'd be down with that. Don't recall what our potential 2nd round matchup was.
 
#19
Won't know the seeding at the top almost until the season plays out, so hard to predict any real seeding preference for Illini. But based upon recent results, I think we really would prefer most to avoid Purdue. But no matter we need to win at least one of the next two to avoid extra Wed game.

I think these are correct.

1st Seed Senarios (8-9 play in)/ 7-10 plays into 2d seed):

A. Purdue: Wins out or goes 1-1 (@Min, @NW) and MSU beats Mich. Purdue has head to head tie break with MSU.
MSU 2d seed, Mich 3d

B. Michigan: Purdue loses at least one and Mich beats MSU. Mich has head to head with Purdue
Purdue 2d, MSU 3d

C. MSU: Purdue loses out and MSU wins out including beats Mich.
Mich 2d, Purdue 3d
 
#20
I'm curious to see how our style of play holds up across the long weekend. Will the Illini be more fatigued than the opponent as the weekend progresses? Or, will all teams be fatigued, and the Illini will be better suited creating an advantage?

Seems like they faded in the preseason tournament after playing Gonzaga to the wire. It would be nice to see them get a few wins in the BTT.
My opinion is and has been that our style of play does not translate well to this format. We don't have the depth to finish some of the games with the energy we need to be successful. I don't see any way we can sustain 4 games back to back.
 
Likes: 3DegreeIllini
#21
Illini optimist
Charleston
Looking (probably too far) forward, out of playing Purdue, UM, MSU, or Wisconsin, what is everyones order of preferred opponent? Personally Wisc, MSU, Purdue, UM is my order. UM over PU just because I think they are always a scary team this time of year, and they have more weapons than PU. Wisconsin is clearly the choice, but that would probably be at best a Saturday matchup for us.
MSU, Wis, UM, PU

Purdue wrecked us last time. MSU is struggling.
 
#22
My opinion is and has been that our style of play does not translate well to this format. We don't have the depth to finish some of the games with the energy we need to be successful. I don't see any way we can sustain 4 games back to back.
Maybe but there has been a consistent statement from opposing coaches stating that you have to prepare for Illinois defense. Anybody playing their second game won't have time to prepare.
 
#24
Illinois can also get the 7 seed with two wins and one Minnesota loss if OSU loses both at NW and at home to Wisconsin.