Let me guess -- he has the 6 losses being the 5 road games and the MSU home game. I have no idea who Torvik is, but I hope he/it doesn't spend a lot of time crunching numbers to come up with that analysis.
Bracketology
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Let me guess -- he has the 6 losses being the 5 road games and the MSU home game. I have no idea who Torvik is, but I hope he/it doesn't spend a lot of time crunching numbers to come up with that analysis.
I love this team but I’m not jumping on the bandwagon yet, I would love to see how they handle success! Go ILLINI!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
For a trip down memory lane, here are the locations we have been sent to over the last twenty years (theoretically "protected" seeds):
2013: 7-seed in Austin, TX
2011: 9-seed in Tulsa, OK
2009: 5-seed in Portland, OR
2007: 12-seed in Columbus, OH
2006: 4-seed in San Diego, CA
2005: 1-seed in Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO
2004: 5-seed in Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA
2003: 4-seed in Indianapolis, IN
2002: 4-seed in Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI
2001: 1-seed in Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX
2000: 4-seed in Winston-Salem, NC
This really kind of reminded me that we seemed surprisingly underseeded in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ... is that how people saw it at the time??
2013: 7-seed in Austin, TX
2011: 9-seed in Tulsa, OK
2009: 5-seed in Portland, OR
2007: 12-seed in Columbus, OH
2006: 4-seed in San Diego, CA
2005: 1-seed in Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO
2004: 5-seed in Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA
2003: 4-seed in Indianapolis, IN
2002: 4-seed in Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI
2001: 1-seed in Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX
2000: 4-seed in Winston-Salem, NC
This really kind of reminded me that we seemed surprisingly underseeded in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ... is that how people saw it at the time??
And I see draft bracket has NC A&T gets in as a 16 seed
I have not taken a hard look at the numbers (of other teams).
However, just looking at IL, we are playing on-steroids D and have a serviceable O.
The other factor I see is that this team's O or D is not impacted by what happens at the other end. It is almost like the O and D are two diff, disjointed games.
And, this team has elevated their game in the B10.
So, to bundle the losses to Miami, Missouri, Arizona - IMHO - will not reflect well in a stat-based comment. Weights are an important component. (IF those (AZ, Miami, MO) games were played today - which is what this team is doing - playing today - I submit the results will be different.)
So. I see this team holding all home games, with the MSU game being a tossup. Their D will carry them.
On away games, I am very bullish. The one game that concerns me is the one at PSU - just not enough days to recover between TWO away games. It does not mean we will win. But, we will win our fair share - I would say (at this time) 4 at the very least.
However, just looking at IL, we are playing on-steroids D and have a serviceable O.
The other factor I see is that this team's O or D is not impacted by what happens at the other end. It is almost like the O and D are two diff, disjointed games.
And, this team has elevated their game in the B10.
So, to bundle the losses to Miami, Missouri, Arizona - IMHO - will not reflect well in a stat-based comment. Weights are an important component. (IF those (AZ, Miami, MO) games were played today - which is what this team is doing - playing today - I submit the results will be different.)
So. I see this team holding all home games, with the MSU game being a tossup. Their D will carry them.
On away games, I am very bullish. The one game that concerns me is the one at PSU - just not enough days to recover between TWO away games. It does not mean we will win. But, we will win our fair share - I would say (at this time) 4 at the very least.
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One thing I noticed with Lunardi's bracket is that if we beat Marquette, then we'd play Gonzaga in a road contest in Spokane.
And before anyone asks, Gonzaga is not normally the host of the 1st 2 rounds of games in Spokane. It's normally Washington State or, in this year's case, Idaho.
And before anyone asks, Gonzaga is not normally the host of the 1st 2 rounds of games in Spokane. It's normally Washington State or, in this year's case, Idaho.
I’d love to see 11 B1G teams in and no teams play each other until the sweet 16 at the earliest.
If 13-7 is a 6 seed this year somethings wrong. I predict the season champion to have 15 wins so 13 might be 2nd or 3rd place in the strongest conference in the country...
So does Kenpom. After Northwestern, we have a brutal 8 game stretch. By Kenpom's game rating system, we have 7 A games and 1 B game (similar to quad 1 and 2 I think).
Sure, but if MSU wins the Big Ten at 15-5, they could conceivably end up down at a 3 seed still. I went back and looked at 2009, we were 24-9 (11-7 plus 1-1 in BTT), tied for second in the conference, and we were a 5 seed. This year 23-11 (13-7 plus hypothetical 1-1 in BTT) makes a 6 seed seem possible. As good as the conference is, for the sake of this discussion, you have to remember our non-conference schedule was week and we didn't look very good during it.
Yep. That would put us at 7-8 in the B1G with a lot of people melting down on here, but with us set up to finish 11-9. He also shows us as having the easiest of remaining schedules in the B1G. And yes barttorvik does spend some time crunching numbers. I use him since I don't subscribe to KenPom. He has us ranked 31 in the nation now (10th in the B1G), and IIRC had us at 18 to begin the season which seemed rather hopeful given last year's results.
http://barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Illinois
But things never work out as expected. The margin between winning and losing is very small which can and does cut both ways. And since we are playing better as of late, like most everyone on here, I am hopeful that we outplay our ranking.
Stadium also has us in Spokane, but as an 8 seed playing LSU: https://watchstadium.com/stadiums-updated-ncaa-tournament-projections-01-13-2020/
That's because we thankfully don't have to play Illinois.
kiwanegarris22
- South Carolina
Nice. Thanks!For a trip down memory lane, here are the locations we have been sent to over the last twenty years (theoretically "protected" seeds):
2013: 7-seed in Austin, TX
2011: 9-seed in Tulsa, OK
2009: 5-seed in Portland, OR
2007: 12-seed in Columbus, OH
2006: 4-seed in San Diego, CA
2005: 1-seed in Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO
2004: 5-seed in Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA
2003: 4-seed in Indianapolis, IN
2002: 4-seed in Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI
2001: 1-seed in Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX
2000: 4-seed in Winston-Salem, NC
This really kind of reminded me that we seemed surprisingly underseeded in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ... is that how people saw it at the time??
And interestingly, ESPN in 2006 rated us the #6 college basketball program of all time, one spot behind IND as I recall.
You should include sites for the prior 20 years to make the analysis complete, dating back to NCAA bracket expansion (beyond 32 teams).
Lots of great seeds over the past 40 years!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I'm not sure how relevant that is. If we were a 1-seed and we got sent to Tampa to play an 8-seed Florida, I would not care what their record was there recently ... I would feel pretty screwed over.
(And I would confidently bet there would be a lot more Illini fans in St. Louis cheering on their 8-seed team than Florida fans in Tampa cheering on their 8-seed team.)
Hopefully it will be Gonzaga
Tacomallini
- Washington State
Well if it happens, I’ll be there!
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
Me, too! I have a second place up in the Spokane area so would be very easy and cheap for me.
Oh how i miss the OLD BIG EAST
Having worked at RTP, that’s about the most beautifulthing I’ve ever seen.
For a trip down memory lane, here are the locations we have been sent to over the last twenty years (theoretically "protected" seeds):
2013: 7-seed in Austin, TX
2011: 9-seed in Tulsa, OK
2009: 5-seed in Portland, OR
2007: 12-seed in Columbus, OH
2006: 4-seed in San Diego, CA
2005: 1-seed in Indianapolis, IN --> Rosemont, IL --> St. Louis, MO
2004: 5-seed in Columbus, OH --> Atlanta, GA
2003: 4-seed in Indianapolis, IN
2002: 4-seed in Chicago, IL --> Madison, WI
2001: 1-seed in Dayton, OH --> San Antonio, TX
2000: 4-seed in Winston-Salem, NC
This really kind of reminded me that we seemed surprisingly underseeded in 2002, 2004 and 2006 ... is that how people saw it at the time??
2002 I don’t think we were under seeded. That was Maryland’s year and had a lot of teams that had more wins than us. 2004 we got screwed after losing to providence and starting slow in conference. But we were the outright conference champs and should’ve been an elite 8 team. 2006 they really hung on for dear life in keeping is ranked in top 15 for too long. Just didn’t have the real pieces we needed but to be a top 10 team.
My hunch is there'd be more Illini fans in Tampa for an 8 seed Illini team than Florida fans in STL for a 1 seed Florida team.
Agreed. This is a very simple way of making sure we stay on track for a tourney berth.
What is the consensus on our easiest road games left? From easiest to hardest I will say...
Northwestern
Iowa
Penn St
Rutgers
Purdue
Michigan
Ohio St (I think they'll be a well oiled machine by the end of the year)
But I think this year it really depends on when we play each team. I never feel good about playing a team that's pissed off about a loss. And especially not this year with almost everyone fighting for tourney hopes/seeding. Perfect example is Wisconsin will probably get stomped tomorrow night because MSU will be on a mission after the way they lost @Purdue.
I remember when Michigan State would get podded out there because Jud Heathcoate lived out there after he retired and that brought some more Michigan State fans out there for games.
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