Chicago Cubs 2019 Season

Oswego, IL
I am really just blown away by the home/road disparity. Can anyone remember anything analogous that did not involve a disproportionately hitter or pitcher-friendly home park?
Briefly heard on 670 this morning a comparison with the 1987 Twins. Not sure of some of the more granular stats, but they were 56-25 at home and 29-52 on the road. Though the Metrodome was a unique stadium I'm not sure if it was really beneficial to either hitter or pitcher.
 
Cubs' team OPS is .796 at home and .763 on the road. And that's completely normal. Most teams are a little worse on offense on the road. The average disparity between home and road OPS is right at .030.

It's the pitching that makes the difference. Home ERA is 3.27 (2nd best in the Majors) and away ERA is 4.73. That's a run and a half difference per game when the MLB average difference is about a third of run between home and away.

Basically, the Cubs are an above average offense wherever they play. At home they're a great pitching staff, but away they're below average.

There has also been a ton of bad luck involved. The Cubs have actually outscored their opponents on the road 268 to 264. They're playing 6 games below their Pythagorean expectation on the road. Which means they probably don't have to make any real changes to be a .500 road team over the rest of the year. Do that while continuing to win at home over the next two months and they should walk away with the division.
 
Cubs' team OPS is .796 at home and .763 on the road. And that's completely normal. Most teams are a little worse on offense on the road. The average disparity between home and road OPS is right at .030.

It's the pitching that makes the difference. Home ERA is 3.27 (2nd best in the Majors) and away ERA is 4.73. That's a run and a half difference per game when the MLB average difference is about a third of run between home and away.

Basically, the Cubs are an above average offense wherever they play. At home they're a great pitching staff, but away they're below average.

There has also been a ton of bad luck involved. The Cubs have actually outscored their opponents on the road 268 to 264. They're playing 6 games below their Pythagorean expectation on the road. Which means they probably don't have to make any real changes to be a .500 road team over the rest of the year. Do that while continuing to win at home over the next two months and they should walk away with the division.
Thanks for those stats, they ease some of my worries. Really crazy the starters haven't walked anyone in 6 straight games since the beginning of the 20th century. Chatwood's looked like at least an average long reliever. The Castellanos trade is already a win in my book and Heyward has looked very comfortable in center (not to mentioning being the leadoff hitter the cubs needed). Hopefully Contreras will be back soon.

Would like to see some of the younger guys get some relief pitching work in September (which they will). Still think we are a couple relievers from being a real contender, though the Astros/Yankees look about as real as they will come. Course the dodgers are another hurdle too.
 
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[ W ] #61

Never a doubt! (The Javy and Happ homers, that is). And Castellanos has already been worthwhile in less than a week in Chicago.
 
[ W ] #62

What a much needed deep start from Quintana. Also nice to see Happ playing pretty well since being called back up.
 
[ W ] #62

What a much needed deep start from Quintana. Also nice to see Happ playing pretty well since being called back up.
“Pretty well” is an understatement. He’s torching the ball.

ETA - 1.052 OPS since the call up. And it’s not being cheap. The ball has been over 100 mph off his bat in 5 of his last 6 PAs.
 
Likes: IanKEvans2
Houston, Texas
“Pretty well” is an understatement. He’s torching the ball.

ETA - 1.052 OPS since the call up. And it’s not being cheap. The ball has been over 100 mph off his bat in 5 of his last 6 PAs.
How many strikeouts? Haven't watched many games since he came up.
 
Oh, and th
How many strikeouts? Haven't watched many games since he came up.
6 in 31 plate appearances. Which is pretty modest in this day and age. Compare to his 33% k rate for his career entering the season. He had four of those Ks in his first 15 plate appearances and has only 2 in his last 16. None is his last 8.

Yesterday, in the AB after the grand slam, he even lay off a fastball up at eye level, which has been his kryptonite.

I’m well aware that this is a very small sample size, but the early returns are pretty encouraging. He seems to be seeing the ball well and is putting the barrel on the ball.
 
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Somehow I missed Jonathan Lucroy signing with the Cubs yesterday. Not the Lucroy of old, but a good veteran catcher to acquire this late in the game.
 
Houston, Texas
Oh, and th

6 in 31 plate appearances. Which is pretty modest in this day and age. Compare to his 33% k rate for his career entering the season. He had four of those Ks in his first 15 plate appearances and has only 2 in his last 16. None is his last 8.

Yesterday, in the AB after the grand slam, he even lay off a fastball up at eye level, which has been his kryptonite.

I’m well aware that this is a very small sample size, but the early returns are pretty encouraging. He seems to be seeing the ball well and is putting the barrel on the ball.
Yeah, I’d take that from him.
 
Little Rock, Arkansas
Saw a lot of alleged Cubs fans on twitter saying how disrespectful it was that he batted lefthanded. I guess they didn't realize a C/2B was pitching. But a lot of hand wringing over it which is something I don't understand.
Did they not see the pitch that the guy threw? It would probably STILL be in the air if Javy hadn’t batted left handed.

Some people will find anything to get butt-hurt about.
 
Did they not see the pitch that the guy threw? It would probably STILL be in the air if Javy hadn’t batted left handed.

Some people will find anything to get butt-hurt about.
The "pLaY tHe GaMe ThE rIgHt WaY" crowd always finds a way to complain about any piece of fun baseball players have. Especially players like Baez.
 
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Houston, Texas
Did they not see the pitch that the guy threw? It would probably STILL be in the air if Javy hadn’t batted left handed.

Some people will find anything to get butt-hurt about.
Yeah, I don’t think the pitch registered on the speed gun. It was a blowout, Twitter people! Lighten up!
 
This pieced together bullpen will be quite interesting in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully they can fend off the Reds to salvage a split.