Chicago Cubs 2019 Season

#301      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
ChiefIllini said:
The Q trade was worth it. He's got a sub 4 ERA as a cub. We traded from an area of surplus for an area of need. The fact is, Eloy/Cease would've contributed nil over the past couple seasons, whereas Q has given us a solid 3/4 starter.

Anyone who thinks we gave up too much for that trade obviously doesn't understand how most MLB trades work.
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His ERA with the Cubs is 3.99 so yeah, I guess technically, he's under 4.

Look at the pitchers he compares to, courtesy of Baseball Reference:

  1. Jaime Garcia (965.5)
  2. Jack Kralick (961.2)
  3. Jon Niese (961.1)
  4. Julio Teheran (960.4)
  5. Mat Latos (958.5)
  6. Dallas Keuchel (956.9)
  7. Britt Burns (955.2)
  8. Pascual Perez (953.8)
  9. Hiroki Kuroda (948.9)
  10. Ray Washburn (948.8)
How many of these guys are you giving up Dylan Cease (minors), Bryant Flete (minors), Matt Rose (minors) and Eloy Jimenez to get? I would guess none.

While I agree he's been a "solid 4th starter, "solid" 3/4 starters don't get traded for that package of players.
 
#302      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
bdutts said:
His ERA with the Cubs is 3.99 so yeah, I guess technically, he's under 4.

Look at the pitchers he compares to, courtesy of Baseball Reference:

  1. Jaime Garcia (965.5)
  2. Jack Kralick (961.2)
  3. Jon Niese (961.1)
  4. Julio Teheran (960.4)
  5. Mat Latos (958.5)
  6. Dallas Keuchel (956.9)
  7. Britt Burns (955.2)
  8. Pascual Perez (953.8)
  9. Hiroki Kuroda (948.9)
  10. Ray Washburn (948.8)
How many of these guys are you giving up Dylan Cease (minors), Bryant Flete (minors), Matt Rose (minors) and Eloy Jimenez to get? I would guess none.

While I agree he's been a "solid 4th starter, "solid" 3/4 starters don't get traded for that package of players.
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Those are full career numbers that BR is making the comparison to. Quintana is only 30 years old and will surpass the careers of every single non-active guy on that list. If you want an apples to apples comparison you should use the comparisons through age 29.
 
#303      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
bdutts said:
His ERA with the Cubs is 3.99 so yeah, I guess technically, he's under 4.
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Actually, according to Baseball Reference, it's 3.89 :)

You can throw similar players at me all you want, but the fact is, at the moment of the trade, tell me someone better, who the cubs could've gotten, for equal or lesser value. Sometimes, trades can be win win, and it was for both the Sox and the Cubs.
 
#304      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Looking at the guys who had the most similar careers to Q through age 29...

Oddly, three of them got hurt and never pitched after the age of 29 - Niese, Latos and McGlothlin. And Ben Sheets got hurt and never pitched a full season again.

Matt Garza’s career went up in smoke at age 30.
Anibal Sanchez’s career looked like it went up in smoke, but he may have revived it last year in Atlanta. We’ll see.
Denny Lemaster has one more good year.
Pete Harnisch had two more good years.
Paul Splittorff was a decent starter for another 7 years.
Chuck Finley was a just below HoF performer for another decade+.

Q has obviously already surpassed the three guys that never pitched again. From there the Cubs are looking for more Splittorff or Finley and less Sanchez and Garz for this year and 2020, the last year of his contract. If they get that at under $12M a year, that’s a complete bargain and well worth the trade.
 
#305      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
ChiefIllini said:
Actually, according to Baseball Reference, it's 3.89 :)

You can throw similar players at me all you want, but the fact is, at the moment of the trade, tell me someone better, who the cubs could've gotten, for equal or lesser value. Sometimes, trades can be win win, and it was for both the Sox and the Cubs.
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Quintana to this point has not helped them win anything in terms of pennants or World Series. I thought that was the point of adding him at such great expense.
 
#306      

ChiefIllini

C
ChiefIllini
Illiniaaron said:
Quintana to this point has not helped them win anything in terms of pennants or World Series. I thought that was the point of adding him at such great expense.
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And Cease, Jimenez, and co. would've to this point? Q gave them way more than any of the previously mentioned would've the past 2+ years.

Bottom line the Cubs traded a lot of future potential for current production--as most trades in the MLB do. I'm not trying to laud this trade as a miracle for the Cubs, but in terms of Q's age, contract, and overall ability, it was at least close to fair. Teams have given up more for a lot less.
 
#308      

Ramrod2010

R
Ramrod2010
champaignchris said:
Looking at the guys who had the most similar careers to Q through age 29...

Oddly, three of them got hurt and never pitched after the age of 29 - Niese, Latos and McGlothlin. And Ben Sheets got hurt and never pitched a full season again.

Matt Garza’s career went up in smoke at age 30.
Anibal Sanchez’s career looked like it went up in smoke, but he may have revived it last year in Atlanta. We’ll see.
Denny Lemaster has one more good year.
Pete Harnisch had two more good years.
Paul Splittorff was a decent starter for another 7 years.
Chuck Finley was a just below HoF performer for another decade+.

Q has obviously already surpassed the three guys that never pitched again. From there the Cubs are looking for more Splittorff or Finley and less Sanchez and Garz for this year and 2020, the last year of his contract. If they get that at under $12M a year, that’s a complete bargain and well worth the trade.
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Holy crap, I did not expect to come here and see a Ben Sheets reference today.

Also, lol at having a 2.70 season ERA, 0.983 WHIP and ending up 12-14. Those Brewer teams were awful (though they have been better since).
 
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#309      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
ChiefIllini said:
And Cease, Jimenez, and co. would've to this point? Q gave them way more than any of the previously mentioned would've the past 2+ years.

Bottom line the Cubs traded a lot of future potential for current production--as most trades in the MLB do. I'm not trying to laud this trade as a miracle for the Cubs, but in terms of Q's age, contract, and overall ability, it was at least close to fair. Teams have given up more for a lot less.
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And I'm just pointing out like others that there are two sides to looking at trades like these. There are two different questions in play: Could they have made a better trade at that time? Probably not. But inherent in trades like this, you have to look at the production of the veteran player you receive and what he contributes towards winning championships, and the production of the younger players for the rest of their careers. Jimenez and Cease may not pan out. However, if they go on to have great careers with the Sox and help them win a World Series, and Quintana does not do the same for the Cubs, will you still call it a good trade? And believe me, I'm not implying that any of this is easy for a GM to decide.
 
#310      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
Illiniaaron said:
And I'm just pointing out like others that there are two sides to looking at trades like these. There are two different questions in play: Could they have made a better trade at that time? Probably not. But inherent in trades like this, you have to look at the production of the veteran player you receive and what he contributes towards winning championships, and the production of the younger players for the rest of their careers. Jimenez and Cease may not pan out. However, if they go on to have great careers with the Sox and help them win a World Series, and Quintana does not do the same for the Cubs, will you still call it a good trade? And believe me, I'm not implying that any of this is easy for a GM to decide.
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Had the Cubs not won the World Series the year prior, I don't think they make the Quintana trade.
 
#311      

mattcoldagelli

mattcoldagelli
The Transfer Portal
mattcoldagelli
Illiniaaron said:
But inherent in trades like this, you have to look at the production of the veteran player you receive and what he contributes towards winning championships, and the production of the younger players for the rest of their careers
Click to expand...

Well, yeah. That's how it goes with trades involving players that aren't yet at MLB level.

If the Cubs go through the prime of this roster with only 1 WS, there will be a lot of people ahead of Jose Quintana on the finger-pointing list.
 
#312      

Illiniaaron

I
Geneseo, IL
Illiniaaron
mattcoldagelli said:
Well, yeah. That's how it goes with trades involving players that aren't yet at MLB level.

If the Cubs go through the prime of this roster with only 1 WS, there will be a lot of people ahead of Jose Quintana on the finger-pointing list.
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I think there are some early signs that they might already be through the prime of this roster.
 
#313      

bdutts

bdutts
Houston, Texas
bdutts
champaignchris said:
Those are full career numbers that BR is making the comparison to. Quintana is only 30 years old and will surpass the careers of every single non-active guy on that list. If you want an apples to apples comparison you should use the comparisons through age 29.
Click to expand...

ok, here you go:

  1. Denny Lemaster (963.4)
  2. Jon Niese (961.1)
  3. Paul Splittorff (961.0)
  4. Mat Latos (958.5)
  5. Matt Garza (954.0)
  6. Pete Harnisch (948.2)
  7. Anibal Sanchez (947.1)
  8. Chuck Finley (945.5)
  9. Ben Sheets (944.5)
  10. Jim McGlothlin (943.9)

Others asked what else could they have gotten? Don't know who Theo and Jed were talking to. Unless they come out and say who they were talking to and about, we'll never know. For sure, they like Quintana's contract and I think that's part of the reason they gave up so much for him.

Like I said, if he pitches like the 5.1 WAR guy, I will not have a problem with the trade. If he pitches like the 1 WAR guy he has pitched like since coming to the Cubs, then I will have a problem with it. For those who think it's a good/great trade as it stands right now, we will have to agree to disagree.
 
#315      

RockfordIllini

R
RockfordIllini
The other thing you have to consider re: Quintana is the value of his contract and the fact that he was under control for at least 3 years at the tome of acquisition.

Maybe a future all star like Jiminez was too big a price to pay, but you can’t pay everyone and having a solid starting pitcher at Quintana’s salary maybe helps you sign one of the talented position players.
 
#316      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
It’s an awful big leap to assume that Jimenez will be an All Star. For example, he was never as good in the minors as Schwarber was in 14 and 15 or Soler was in 14.
 
#317      

South Farms

S
near Ogden & Rt 83
South Farms
the three things that just about almost every team that wins a WS can point to for making it happen are
Pitching
Pitching
Pitching

Cleveland flat out didn't have enough arms in October 2016 and it cost them . Same with the Dodgers in 2017.
You cant do it with 3 guys giving you all the starts . By game 4 or 5 , with your # 1 or #2 going on short rest AFTER a long season and 2 prior rounds of playoffs , those guys are outta gas. We've seen that movie before. When you can get a quality #3 guy, who can not only help you win the division or win a playoff series, and all you are giving up is future stuff, you make that trade. Smart trade then , Smart trade now.
 
#323      

IanKEvans2

IanKEvans2
IanKEvans2
[ Walkoff ] #10

Chatwood looked much improved today! Getting outs on the ground.

Moreover, Javy is this team's heart & soul.
 
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#324      

Shane Walsh

Shane Walsh
aka "Captain Oblivious"
Cynthiana, Kentucky
Shane Walsh
Safe to assume that Morrow is effectively finished in a Cubs uniform. Has a buyout after this season.
 
#325      

champaignchris

C
champaignchris
Shane Walsh said:
Safe to assume that Morrow is effectively finished in a Cubs uniform. Has a buyout after this season.
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Yup.

Meanwhile, it’s about time Almora grabbed some pine. (As in the bench, not the bat.) I’d be more patient if he hadn’t spent the last three months of 2018 OPSing .548. The team is too deep to keep giving him that many at bats. Heyward can play center.