Bad signs looming:
* we're in the midst of a world-wide pandemic
* cold weather pushing people indoors; cases will consequently rise even more
* Covid deaths have doubled in the past couple of weeks
* nationally, we've shot to 200,000 Covid cases daily; just recently 30,000 daily cases was considered high (or BAD)
* contact tracing rules are very conservative and restrictive (particularly given the coronavirus impact on young fit, healthy college athletes)
* unlike football, basketball programs don't have the sheer numbers to survive contact tracing; similar to Wright State, one positive diagnosis is going to shut a team down for roughly 3 weeks
I agree the latest surge is really bad --the numbers bear that out. But, to play the optimist:
* Emergency use authorization would mean vaccinations can begin in about 8 weeks.
* There are millions of doses already produced and waiting.
* Vaccine effectiveness is very high.
* Pharma money.
* Gov and business money (general).
* (specifically) Basketball money.
Delays wouldn't surprise me, but giving up on the season seems really unlikely, mostly because of 4, 5, and 6. JMO.