College Football Playoff

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#1
Michigan
First rankings are out today, and the BIG has 2 of the top 4 with unbeatens Ohio State and Penn State. SEC has LSU and 'Bama. Haven't followed it closely enough to have a strong opinion, but it sets up some really good games for the remainder of the season. As usual, there will be some one loss teams that deserve to play for a championship, but won't get in. Where's my committee vote! They really need an 8 team format where every P5 champ goes, the other conferences combined get a guaranteed slot, and the committee adds 2 wild cards. Notre Dame would complain, but let em.*

No mention of the Illini :p

*apologies for complaining about the CFP format. I can't help myself.

 
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#2
First rankings are out today, and the BIG has 2 of the top 4 with unbeatens Ohio State and Penn State. SEC has LSU and 'Bama. Haven't followed it closely enough to have a strong opinion, but it sets up some really good games for the remainder of the season. As usual, there will be some one loss teams that deserve to play for a championship, but won't get in. Where's my committee vote! They really need an 8 team format where every P5 champ goes, the other conferences combined get a guaranteed slot, and the committee adds 2 wild cards. Notre Dame would complain, but let em.*

No mention of the Illini :p

*apologies for complaining about the CFP format. I can't help myself.

This process and the outcomes are usually a huge joke. This one is no different. In prior years they make excuses for Alabama because they were last years Nat Champ and still undefeated, this year they leave Clemson out. OSU plays PSU and Alabama plays LSU. Bet they try to slide Georgia in the top 4 before the season is out
 
#3
I think a fun format for the football postseason would be a 16 team playoff where conferences get bids based on the bowl and playoff results from the previous year. So the top 3 conferences get 2 auto bids, the next 4 conferences get 1 auto bid and the other 6 slots are at-large.

Then you still keep all the other bowl games as part of postseason play and just assign each one a point value (along with the playoff games). It would make fans actually interested in a low-tier B10 vs ACC bowl if the result could impact something beyond those two teams.

I’d think you’d have to eliminate the conference championship games to make the schedule work and I’m sure there are other challenges, but one can dream!
 
#4
This process and the outcomes are usually a huge joke. This one is no different. In prior years they make excuses for Alabama because they were last years Nat Champ and still undefeated, this year they leave Clemson out. OSU plays PSU and Alabama plays LSU. Bet they try to slide Georgia in the top 4 before the season is out
Bolded: I definitely see your underlying point but in this case, Georgia can't be slid in by anyone. They're either gonna play Alabama or LSU for the SEC title. If they lose, they're absolutely out. If they win, I don't see how you can keep them out. Their case is pretty much cut and dry, assuming they beat Auburn in a couple weeks.

Realistically, assuming all goes according to script, it's gonna be Clemson, Ohio State/Penn State and some combination of Alabama/Georgia/LSU. And that's fine but it kinda sucks, there's no drama in it. I like Calvin's idea, make it 8 with each Power 5 Conference Champion, the highest rated Group of 5 program and 2 committee choices. I actually think that's a fantastic idea. Makes the conference championships truly matter (They don't now), gives the Group of 5 the relevancy they crave/deserve and it still allows for some drama with the committee making 2 picks. I love that idea.
 
#5
Bolded: I definitely see your underlying point but in this case, Georgia can't be slid in by anyone. They're either gonna play Alabama or LSU for the SEC title. If they lose, they're absolutely out. If they win, I don't see how you can keep them out. Their case is pretty much cut and dry, assuming they beat Auburn in a couple weeks.

Realistically, assuming all goes according to script, it's gonna be Clemson, Ohio State/Penn State and some combination of Alabama/Georgia/LSU. And that's fine but it kinda sucks, there's no drama in it. I like Calvin's idea, make it 8 with each Power 5 Conference Champion, the highest rated Group of 5 program and 2 committee choices. I actually think that's a fantastic idea. Makes the conference championships truly matter (They don't now), gives the Group of 5 the relevancy they crave/deserve and it still allows for some drama with the committee making 2 picks. I love that idea.
It is more a statement about them being in the top 4 before the conference champ games. Which if they are already ranked high, it gives them legitimacy to keep them there if another conference champ has 1 loss. That is what bugs me. College football used to be all about "every game matters". Well if your conference champ cant even play for a natty, then does it?
I think most argue for an 8 team playoff. I think it is just a matter of time before it changes. It took forever just for a 4 team. The more times a conference champ gets left off, the closer we will get to the 8 teams.
 
#6
St Louis
If you want to 1) televise more football and make a ton more money, 2) make all the Power 5's happy 3) give legit access to Group of 5 and 4) incorporate some "at large" selections, by all means go to 8 teams. You don't need 8 teams to determine the best team however; 4 does that just fine.
 
#7
If you want to 1) televise more football and make a ton more money, 2) make all the Power 5's happy 3) give legit access to Group of 5 and 4) incorporate some "at large" selections, by all means go to 8 teams. You don't need 8 teams to determine the best team however; 4 does that just fine.
Does it though? Can you tell me 100% that Ohio State is better than Oklahoma? No you can't. Only way to find that out is to give them a shot IF they are the best team in their conference
 
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#8
St Louis
Does it though? Can you tell me 100% that Ohio State is better than Oklahoma? No you can't. Only way to find that out is to give them a shot IF they are the best team in their conference
If you assess as of right now, nobody knows definitively who the top 4 are. But come December 10th, it'll be very clear. There are 5 more weeks of high profile games and conference championships. The top 4 will survive and be clear.
 
#9
Some people have proposed the probably impossible idea of switching conference championship weekend to the first round in an eight-team playoff, played at the stadiums of the higher seeds. Here’s a comparison of what that might look like under both scenarios:

Current conference championship games:

ACC: Clemson/UVA (presumed blowout)
B1G: Minny/OSU (presumed blowout)
B12: Oklahoma/Baylor (rematch of a game three weeks earlier)
P12: Oregon/Utah (good matchup, possible playoff spot on the line, but two schools with non-massive fan bases, located 9 and 11 hours from the stadium)
SEC: Bama or LSU/Georgia (good matchup, shot for UGA to get in with an upset, but would they rank higher than the Bama/LSU loser?)

On the other hand, here's how a first playoff weekend might look:

Penn State at Bama
Oregon at Ohio State
Georgia at Clemson
LSU at Oklahoma

Losers could go back into the non-playoff bowl pool.
 
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#10
Ok so lets say OSU Clemson LSU Oklahoma Oregon/Utah all win out and you have 1 loss Alabama Penn State and Baylor. You would have
No loses
1. OSU
2. Clemson
3. LSU

1 lose
Oklahoma
Baylor
Alabama
Oregon/Utah

How can you tell me other than Oklahoma beating Baylor that any of those teams are clear cut above any other?
 
#11
Some people have proposed the probably impossible idea of switching conference championship weekend to the first round in an eight-team playoff, played at the stadiums of the higher seeds. Here’s a comparison of what that might look like under both scenarios:

Current conference championship games:

ACC: Clemson/UVA (presumed blowout)
B1G: Minny/OSU (presumed blowout)
B12: Oklahoma/Baylor (rematch of a game three weeks earlier)
P12: Oregon/Utah (good matchup, possible playoff spot on the line, but two schools with non-massive fan bases, located 9 and 11 hours from the stadium)
SEC: Bama or LSU/Georgia (good matchup, shot for UGA to get in with an upset, but would they rank higher than the Bama/LSU loser?)

On the other hand, here's how a first playoff weekend might look:

Penn State at Bama
Oregon at Ohio State
Georgia at Clemson
LSU at Oklahoma

Losers could go back into the non-playoff bowl pool.
I though that was looking real good but then realized by the end of the season, it wouldn't be Penn State and Ohio State. It would be Minnesota and Ohio State and that doesn't look near as good.
If you do the general 8 team format that is always discussed, the conference champ game is your first round of the playoff
 
#12
St Louis
Ok so lets say OSU Clemson LSU Oklahoma Oregon/Utah all win out and you have 1 loss Alabama Penn State and Baylor. You would have
No loses
1. OSU
2. Clemson
3. LSU

1 lose
Oklahoma
Baylor
Alabama
Oregon/Utah

How can you tell me other than Oklahoma beating Baylor that any of those teams are clear cut above any other?
While that may be possible, it's not probable. In fact, per fivethrityeight.com, the odds of OSU, Clem, LSU, Ok and Utah all winning out is <0.25%. Substitute Oregon and it's not much better. November has proven to be *nuts* in the 5 years of the CFP.

Will be interesting to see how close the LSU/Alabama and OSU/PSU games are.
 
#13
While that may be possible, it's not probable. In fact, per fivethrityeight.com, the odds of OSU, Clem, LSU, Ok and Utah all winning out is <0.25%. Substitute Oregon and it's not much better. November has proven to be *nuts* in the 5 years of the CFP.

Will be interesting to see how close the LSU/Alabama and OSU/PSU games are.
2018
Zero Loses
Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame

1 Lose
Georgia
Oklahoma
Ohio state

2017
0 zero loses
1 lose
Clemson
Oklahoma
Georgia
Alabama (Didn't even play for the conference champ but got in)
Wisconsin

2015
Zero Loses
Clemson
1 Lose
Alabama
Mich St.
Oklahoma
Iowa
Ohio State

2014
Zero loses
FSU
1 lose
Alabama
Oregon
TCU
Ohio State
Baylor

That is Four years out of the six of the playoff that someone is getting Effed. 100% of the time, some one gets the shaft 66% of the time
 
Likes: Calvin
#14
I though that was looking real good but then realized by the end of the season, it wouldn't be Penn State and Ohio State. It would be Minnesota and Ohio State and that doesn't look near as good.
If you do the general 8 team format that is always discussed, the conference champ game is your first round of the playoff
This figures that OSU beats Penn State and Penn State beats Minny, giving both teams one loss and PSU getting the edge because of head-to-head (though I wouldn't necessarily make hard and fast rules like that).

I'd eliminate conference divisions for the purposes of determining championships (though you could keep them for scheduling), which has led to numerous terrible championship matchups over the years and endless discussions about unequal strength among divisions within a conference.
 
#15
St Louis
There will always be an argument for #'s 5-7 or so. The reality is, in 5 playoff seasons, the semi final games have been duds, with the average margin of victory being 21.4 points. Just 2 of the 10 games were decided by one score or less. Many were over at halftime. The average margin of victory in 5 championship games is better, 12.4. 2 of the 5 have been blowouts, 3 of the 5 were outstanding one score games, including one OT game.

Either the college football playoff process has been super unlucky w/ actual semi final results, *or*, there really are just 2, maybe 3 really elite teams each year.
 
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#16
There will always be an argument for #'s 5-7 or so. The reality is, in 5 playoff seasons, the semi final games have been duds, with the average margin of victory being 21.4 points. Just 2 of the 10 games were decided by one score or less. Many were over at halftime. The average margin of victory in 5 championship games is better, 12.4. 2 of the 5 have been blowouts, 3 of the 5 were outstanding one score games, including one OT game.

Either the college football playoff process has been super unlucky w/ actual semi final results, *or*, there really are just 2, maybe 3 really elite teams each year.
What does the outcome of the games that were actually played have to do with the games that DIDNT get played? Again, the top four do not become clear, nor will they
 
#17
St Louis
You can't play all the games to find out all the outcomes. The line has to be drawn somewhere and 4 works. If you were getting *really* close games in the semis and finals, you'd absolutely have an argument that teams 5-8 should get their shot. But that's not happening.

Would it have been fun to see if and "effed" Ohio State could have given Clemson a go last year? Sure, why not? But they literally effed themselves by losing by 29 points to a 6-6 Purdue team. "Effed" Georgia lost to Alabama in essentially a play in game too.

In 2017, Wisconsin got left out because they lost their conference championship game.

What can happen is you can have fun when you get the final 4. Ohio State in 2014 is a great example of that.
 
#18
Ok. You literally said at the end of the year there will be four clear teams that deserve their shot. I in fact showed you four out of the six years that was not the case. 8 team playoff is not all the games. It is very doable and I would lay money in 5ish years that is what we will have. I want teams that have earned their shot to get their chance. Teams are being left out based off opinions and not results and that is what is wrong.

FYI in 2017 Alabama didn't even play in their conference championship because they lost to Auburn. What is better, losing your conference champ game or not even earning the right to play in it? Essentially 2nd or 3rd place, its a clear answer. But the 3rd place team got to play. But you say Alabama beat Clemson so that proves Wisconsin wasn't good enough? huh? You see that doesn't make any sense correct? Especially when you add in that Wisconsin went and beat Miami by 10 points on the road in their bowl game.
 
#19
St Louis
My point is there are 2-3 really good teams. The rest, whether 4 or 8, is just a parade and process to get to the top 2 playing.

I have no doubt the playoffs will be expanded. But it will be done so because all the big conferences will want access, not because teams 5-8 will actually win the thing.

which teams were left out in 2018, based on opinions? 2017?
 
#20
New York
Wherever you draw the line, there will be controversy over whether team X should have made it in. So for example in a 4 team playoff, fans of teams 5-7 will all be clamoring that they should have been because it’s not so easy to distinguish them from teams 3 and 4. In a 68 team march madness with 43 at large teams, teams 44-48 will be yelling because their resumes were arguably better than teams 40-43. But the more you expand the field, the less likely it is that there can be controversy over what really matters - whether a reasonable contender for champion has been unfairly excluded.

I think 4 teams does a defensible job of including all the teams that have established themselves as having a right to contend for the championship, but there can be times where a team that is arguably the best in the country is excluded because for instance it’s a Group of 5 team that hasn’t been tested, or because a team had an early season loss that was enough to disqualify them even if they’ve been awesome since then. Expanding to 8 has benefits in that respect and seems like there’s not much downside - just more TV ratings, more excitement, more money for schools, etc.


on balance, I think Calvin’s suggestion is an excellent one.
 
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#21
Literally every other level of football has a large playoff structure that the fans of those leagues seem to like. NFL has a 12 team playoff, FCS has a 24 team playoff, D-II has a 28 team playoff, D-III has a 32 team playoff, NAIA has a 16 team playoff, and Illinois high school has 8 different 32 team playoffs.

Sure, maybe there aren’t tons of upsets but the pageantry of those events is great and gives more fans a reason to care about the postseason. Furthermore, an expanded playoff structure may allow for more recruiting parity as more teams would get postseason exposure on the national level.
 
#22
My point is there are 2-3 really good teams. The rest, whether 4 or 8, is just a parade and process to get to the top 2 playing.

I have no doubt the playoffs will be expanded. But it will be done so because all the big conferences will want access, not because teams 5-8 will actually win the thing.

which teams were left out in 2018, based on opinions? 2017?
I literally wrote the list out, look at the post
 
#23
St Louis
Take Calvin's suggestion, and apply it to last year and use the final playoff rankings to seed. For sake of argument, I'm including Notre Dame and Georgia as the two at large selections (sorry, Michigan). Here's what your first round of games would look like:

1. Alabama
8. Washington - This would not have been much of game

4. Oklahoma
5. Georgia - If Oklahoma wins, we'd get the game we got anyway. If Georgia wins, we'd get a rematch played just weeks earlier.

3. ND
6. Ohio State - If ND wins, we'd get the game we got anyway. If OSU wins, that's would be a new matchup .

2. Clemson
7. UCF - This would not have been much of a game
 
#24
St Louis
Literally every other level of football has a large playoff structure that the fans of those leagues seem to like. NFL has a 12 team playoff, FCS has a 24 team playoff, D-II has a 28 team playoff, D-III has a 32 team playoff, NAIA has a 16 team playoff, and Illinois high school has 8 different 32 team playoffs.

Sure, maybe there aren’t tons of upsets but the pageantry of those events is great and gives more fans a reason to care about the postseason. Furthermore, an expanded playoff structure may allow for more recruiting parity as more teams would get postseason exposure on the national level.
The Playoffs have devalued the Bowls to a notable degree and that's unfortunate. But when fans had the imperfect Bowl system, we clamored for more; we wanted a playoff. The conferences set their own interests aside for the greater good of the postseason and gave us a four team playoff. It was a landmark move. Now we want expanded playoffs. Who wouldn't want *more* college football? We as fans shovel it in our mouths as fast as it's put on the plate. But expanded playoffs won't bring national championship upsets.

In all those other levels of college football, those playoffs are run by the NCAA (or NAIA). FBS is run by conferences and Notre Dame, who structure it to their benefit, and throw just enough candy around to make everybody else happy. The playoffs will expand at some point because the conferences want that, but not because 5-8 will win the thing.
 
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