College Football Playoff

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#51
Alabama doesn't have a chance for a signature win. Beating Auburn won't mean much, and the committee won't punish Georgia for playing an extra game and (presumably) losing to #1 LSU.
In this case, they absolutely will. The committee will not, under any circumstance, put a 2 loss team in the CFP over a name, 1 loss program who’s only blemish will have been to the 1 seed (Which LSU will be under your scenario).

There’s no chaos needed here, this is clear cut. The only chaos comes in the event of another Alabama loss.
 
#52
Loda, IL
Time out.... are we writing Minnesota off here? If they win out their regular season, they will have beaten #4 PSU, a top 25 Iowa, and possibly a top 10 (at least top 15) Wisconsin. Is the rest of their schedule so weak that their one loss (which would be to #1 Ohio State in the championship) would make them weaker to other 1-loss teams?
Say they run the table, they would need to keep their loss to Ohio State VERY close. I also agree that it is BS that a team like Minny who started out ranked lower because of the historical perception of their football program don't get the same shot as a team like Penn State or even Florida for christ sake
 
#53
This isn’t relevant to the conversation and I’m generally loathe to praise other programs but Auburn, my hat is off to you for trying to manage the schedule you’ve played/will play. Oregon, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, LSU and Alabama. Talk about running the gauntlet, whew, that’s brutal.
 
#54
There are actually 5 undefeated teams. You’re forgetting Baylor and of course LSU.

If Alabama wins out, the SEC is getting two teams. Bama and the winner of LSU/Georgia.
Bama ain't playing in the playoff unless LSU loses 2 games and bama wins the SEC
 
#55
Bama ain't playing in the playoff unless LSU loses 2 games and bama wins the SEC
Care to friendly wager?

The only scenarios in which they don’t get in are:
-They suffer a second loss
-Georgia wins the SEC

Otherwise, they will absolutely be in, no question.
 
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#56
Care to friendly wager?

The only scenarios in which they don’t get in are:
-They suffer a second loss
-Georgia wins the SEC

Otherwise, they will absolutely be in, no question.
Sure. It maybe my heart getting in the way here but I am seeing
LSU
OSU
Clemson
Baylor/Okl/Oregon
Remember Oregon basically lost on the last play vs Auburn at the beginning of the year and they were down thier top 3 WRs. The committee takes early loses and injury into account. Alabama doesn't have 1 good win. And beating Auburn isnt enough with the rest of that schedule
 
#57
Sure. It maybe my heart getting in the way here but I am seeing
LSU
OSU
Clemson
Baylor/Okl/Oregon
Remember Oregon basically lost on the last play vs Auburn at the beginning of the year and they were down thier top 3 WRs. The committee takes early loses and injury into account. Alabama doesn't have 1 good win. And beating Auburn isnt enough with the rest of that schedule
“Alabama doesn’t have one good win”.

Neither does Oregon, Utah or Oklahoma. Utah and Oklahoma both have losses to non-ranked, 3+ loss teams. Winning their conferences won’t matter, just as it didn’t last year when OSU was left out.

If Alabama wins out, you have to tell yourself that an Oregon team with no good win and a loss to Auburn is better than an Alabama team that beat Auburn and lost to the 1 seed (In your scenario) by less than a TD with an injured Tua. Good luck with that.
 
#58
Michigan
Care to friendly wager?

The only scenarios in which they don’t get in are:
-They suffer a second loss
-Georgia wins the SEC

Otherwise, they will absolutely be in, no question.
What makes you think so? They have played a relatively weak schedule and are 0-1 against CFP ranked teams.

(L) #2 LSU
(TBD) #11 Auburn

That's it! The elite teams of the SEC are LSU, Georgia, FL, Auburn, and Bama. They only have 2 of those on the schedule: the first of which they lost, and the second will be against a #11 that will drop further if they beat them. They don't play Georgia, they don't play Florida, and they won't be playing themselves. They won't be a division champ, let alone a conference champ. I just don't see that as the kind of schedule that will let them back into it, especially when you've got possible undefeated teams in tOSU, Clemson, and LSU. They won't be the best one loss team if they make it that far. Their best shot is other top teams losing.
 
#59
Okay, let's do this real quick, can someone tell me right now if [enter team name here] wins out (including any conference championships), they're in for sure. This would mean no help from other teams. For example, we know that if Ohio State wins out, they're in no matter who else wins or loses. We can go from there after I see this list.

My list would be this:

AAC
There's no team from this conference getting in regardless of what they do without major, major help.

ACC
Clemson

Big 12
Gosh... I want to say Baylor and Oklahoma, but I'm not sure either gets in without help. Baylor would be undefeated with a win over Oklahoma, but who else? Oklahoma would have a couple nice wins over Baylor and Texas, but I don't think they're a sexy 1-loss team. They'd need a handful of other teams to either lose their first game or their second.

Big 10
Ohio State
Minnesota
Penn State

C-USA
The entire NCAA organization would have to collapse.

FBS Independents
No one without help

MAC
See C-USA

MWC
Nope. Too bad though. Some day I'd like to see Boise State get their chance, but until they play tougher opponents and quit blowing games against weaker ones...

Pac-12
Similar to the Big 12, I want to say Oregon and Utah. They both benefit from being ranked high right now, but both have rather uninspiring resumes... Oregon's one loss comes from one of the only two top 25 teams its faced, and Utah's loss came at the hands of USC. I think they both need to run the table and meet in the Pac-12 championship in order for on of them to be in. Even then, I'm not sure they get the "sexy 1-loss" moniker either. I think they both need help.

SEC
LSU
Georgia even with one loss, an SEC Champion Georgia goes regardless of anything and everything else that shakes out over the rest of the season.
I want to put Alabama here, too, but honestly, even if Alabama wins out, they NEED either LSU or Georgia to lose before the championship game. If neither do, then they NEED LSU to win the SEC Championship. The Playoff committee has always had a hardon for 1-loss SEC teams (even if they don't play in the SEC Championship), but it'd be hard to reconcile a 1-loss Alabama team over a 1-loss LSU team or 1-loss SEC Champion Georgia. Thus, byt definition, Alabama needs help to get in. But they are certainly not out.

Sun Belt Conference

Hahahahahaha

Long story short, I would say there are at best 10 teams right now with a "it's in our own hands" possibility of getting to the Playoffs. Would you all agree, or am I off base here?
 
#60
What makes you think so? They have played a relatively weak schedule and are 0-1 against CFP ranked teams.

(L) #2 LSU
(TBD) #11 Auburn

That's it! The elite teams of the SEC are LSU, Georgia, FL, Auburn, and Bama. They only have 2 of those on the schedule: the first of which they lost, and the second will be against a #11 that will drop further if they beat them. They don't play Georgia, they don't play Florida, and they won't be playing themselves. They won't be a division champ, let alone a conference champ. I just don't see that as the kind of schedule that will let them back into it, especially when you've got possible undefeated teams in tOSU, Clemson, and LSU. They won't be the best one loss team if they make it that far. Their best shot is other top teams losing.
Oh, it’s quite simple. That long argument you made? Apply it to every single team not named Minnesota or Georgia that is ranked from 5-10 today. And then tell me with a straight face that Georgia (1 loss to unranked and no bowl South Carolina) and Minnesota (Undefeated and still ranked behind Alabama) will win out.

There’s your answer.
 
#61
“Alabama doesn’t have one good win”.

Neither does Oregon, Utah or Oklahoma. Utah and Oklahoma both have losses to non-ranked, 3+ loss teams. Winning their conferences won’t matter, just as it didn’t last year when OSU was left out.

If Alabama wins out, you have to tell yourself that an Oregon team with no good win and a loss to Auburn is better than an Alabama team that beat Auburn and lost to the 1 seed (In your scenario) by less than a TD with an injured Tua. Good luck with that.
It is the question of the unknown that gets Oregon in over Alabama IMO. We know this far into the season that Alabama is not better than LSU. We do not know what Oregon can do with a full roster at this point (have to win out). Only way to answer that question is to let them play.
 
#62
There seems to be some add fallacy in which everyone thinks the top 10 teams will all finish undefeated or with one loss and all have fantastic resumes. They don’t. Oklahoma’s signature win is Texas. Oregon signature win is USC. Utah’s signature win is Washington. Penn State has a number of nice victories but gets OSU in a couple weeks, they’ll be a 2 loss team that doesn’t win their conference. The only teams you’re looking at in relation to Alabama are Minnesota and Georgia.
 
#63
It is the question of the unknown that gets Oregon in over Alabama IMO. We know this far into the season that Alabama is not better than LSU. We do not know what Oregon can do with a full roster at this point (have to win out). Only way to answer that question is to let them play.
That question goes both ways. What if Tua plays that game against the team you slate as the #1 seed healthy?
 
#64
Here’s where it gets chaotic:

Alabama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl
Utah and Oregon both win out, Utah defeats Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship Game
LSU defeats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
Minnesota wins out but loses to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game
Oklahoma wins out
 
#65
Here’s where it gets chaotic:

Alabama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl
Utah and Oregon both win out, Utah defeats Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship Game
LSU defeats Georgia in the SEC Championship Game
Minnesota wins out but loses to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game
Oklahoma wins out
Assuming all teams win out except for the losses mentioned here, I think under this scenario here are your playoff teams:
Ohio State #1
LSU #2
Oklahoma #3
Utah #4

Based purely on how ridiculously high Utah is ranked right now and how much Minnesota gets pooped on.

Otherwise I think a 1-loss Minnesota has to go over a 2-loss any team. And honestly ought to go over a 1-loss Pac-12 champion.
 
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#66
Assuming all teams win out except for the losses mentioned here, I think under this scenario here are your playoff teams:
Ohio State #1
LSU #2
Oklahoma #3
Utah #4

Based purely on how ridiculously high Utah is ranked right now and how much Minnesota gets pooped on.

Otherwise I think a 1-loss Minnesota has to go over a 2-loss any team. And honestly ought to go over a 1-loss Pac-12 champion.
Honestly? That would be tough to accept if you’re a Minnesota fan. I don’t think Utah is any good. Oklahoma will have no resume and an L from 3 loss Kansas State but this is how the committee works and it’s what people aren’t factoring.

I would say your top 4 would match mine, begrudgingly.
 
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#67
One thing to keep in mind, I guess, is that Minnesota actually does have a couple decent matchups coming up. If they can win out until the B1G Championship, my bet is that they would actually be ranked higher than Utah/Oregon heading into championship week.

Now, under that same scenario, maybe Minnesota doesn't get looked past? If it were the SEC, the playoff committee would have already spread their seed all over the place in excitement.
 
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#68
One thing to keep in mind, I guess, is that Minnesota actually does have a couple decent matchups coming up. If they can win out until the B1G Championship, my bet is that they would actually be ranked higher than Utah/Oregon heading into championship week.

Now, under that same scenario, maybe Minnesota doesn't get looked past? If it were the SEC, the playoff committee would have already spread their seed all over the place in excitement.
Generally, I would agree. Unfortunately this is where things get murky. Minnesota has games against Wisconsin and Iowa left. A win over Wisconsin will up their resume, a win over Iowa would not for much the same reason beating Texas A&M (By 3 scores) doesn’t up Alabama’s. Both programs will finish with a number in the “L” column that will preclude them from a ranking with any type of meaning, assuming they’re ranked at all (A&M won’t be, they get Georgia and LSU to close the season. They also drew Bama, Clemson and Auburn. Brutal schedule). Do wins over Penn State and Wisconsin look more favorable to the committee than an Oregon/Utah conference champion with a win over Oregon/Utah?

I don’t have the answer to that question.
 
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#69
Assuming all teams win out except for the losses mentioned here, I think under this scenario here are your playoff teams:
Ohio State #1
LSU #2
Oklahoma #3
Utah #4

Based purely on how ridiculously high Utah is ranked right now and how much Minnesota gets pooped on.

Otherwise I think a 1-loss Minnesota has to go over a 2-loss any team. And honestly ought to go over a 1-loss Pac-12 champion.
Everyone here forgetting about the defending National Champions who still have not lost a game, Clemson?
 
#71
ESPNs rank of strenght of record
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Baylor
4. Minnesota
5. Clemson
6. Penn State
7. Auburn
8. Oregon
9. Florida
10. Alabama
 
#72
“Alabama doesn’t have one good win”.

Neither does Oregon, Utah or Oklahoma. Utah and Oklahoma both have losses to non-ranked, 3+ loss teams. Winning their conferences won’t matter, just as it didn’t last year when OSU was left out.

If Alabama wins out, you have to tell yourself that an Oregon team with no good win and a loss to Auburn is better than an Alabama team that beat Auburn and lost to the 1 seed (In your scenario) by less than a TD with an injured Tua. Good luck with that.
I agree about Bama having a good chance to get in, but I don't think it's as clear cut as you believe. The eye test could keep them out. If Oklahoma, Oregon, or Utah turn it up a notch and start destroying teams a la Ohio St then the committee might give them a chance. I don't think any of those 3 are good enough to do that, but it would make it interesting if one of them does.
 
#74
Strength of record? What does that even mean?
It is based off percentages an average top 25 team would have the record they have going against the teams on their schedule. According to them, LSU had a 1% chance to be undefeated at this point. How they come up with that number I do not know.
I wanted to point it out because we all know ESPN has a financial interest in the SEC. Even with that, they are putting content out there showing Baylor as legit
 
#75
Plainfield
I preface this by confessing that I believe there never will be a fair and unbiased system to determine a ‘true national champion on the field’ despite the claim that a playoff system does. As i read this thread the problems are all laid out - bias towards one loss SEC teams especially Alabama, Minnesota’s handicap etc. When you look at the teams being discussed it is the same small group of teams every year with an addition or two. So we are mostly trying to annually decide whether Ohio St is better than Alabama and Clemson? I fail to see the purpose. If you look at each conference there is mostly one or two teams every year that have a chance at a playoff. Has this system only made the rich richer? It’s clear in the Big Ten we’re living in the era of the Big One and everyone else.
 
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