Coronavirus Pandemic

#26
Houston, Texas
Two doctors I talked to said they would be surprised if there was not another surge of outbreak when school starts and during the usual flu season.
Australia will be interesting to watch to see if there is an uptick since they are hitting winter season.
 
#30
Personally, I don't see how we can come to sensible policy without accurate and widespread testing, of which we have neither AFAICT. Seems like that would be priority #1.

Fun fact: Whenever I talk to an ordinary person about a loved one in bad shape, they tell me how hard it was to get tested, if they managed to get tested at all. Whenever I read the news, the political elites, rich, and famous seem to have no difficulty. Maybe it's just me....
 
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#31
Houston, Texas
Personally, I don't see how we can come to sensible policy without accurate and widespread testing, of which we have neither AFAICT. Seems like that would be priority #1.

Fun fact: Whenever I talk to an ordinary person about a loved one in bad shape, they tell me how hard it was to get tested, if they managed to get tested at all. Whenever I read the news, the political elites, rich, and famous seem to have no difficulty. Maybe it's just me....
Which state? In Texas, it started as only people who had symptoms could get tested. The past two or three weeks or so, anyone who wanted a test could get one. Initially, it was challenging but once they got things ironed out, went pretty well.
 
#32
Forgottonia
Personally, I don't see how we can come to sensible policy without accurate and widespread testing, of which we have neither AFAICT. Seems like that would be priority #1.

Fun fact: Whenever I talk to an ordinary person about a loved one in bad shape, they tell me how hard it was to get tested, if they managed to get tested at all. Whenever I read the news, the political elites, rich, and famous seem to have no difficulty. Maybe it's just me....
I can tell you in our county, at this point if you feel you may have been exposed, you can be tested for free by the health dept. Much different than 3 weeks ago.
 
#33
Right now, my hope is that we have a season. What are teams going to do when a player, coach, staff member, family member, or one of their contacts are positive, and everyone they've been in contact with is supposed to quarantine for 14 days? Seems like you could have an endless stream of 14 day resets, and teams by their very nature involve potential for community spread. The rising cases combined with the astonishing lack of leadership nationally or in certain parts of the country (looking at you Texas et. al.) have me expecting that the pandemic will prevent a return of sports. I suppose we'll get fair warning given there are other sports that have scheduled seasons before bball (correct me if I've got any dates wrong below). Was looking at ESPN and they report some big numbers for cases on certain college fball teams, for example. You hope there are no deaths from these cases, but it seems inevitable that someone has a condition that makes them vulnerable.

MLB - July 23
NBA - July 30
College football - tbd & different conferences are working off different plans
College bball - same
 
#34
As cases/deaths fell even after states were reopening in late April/early May, there was consensus that we’d probably see SOME sort of increase coming.

Hopefully, by the end of July, we look back at this increase in case rate as the start of a minor increase, subsequent leveling off, and eventual decrease.

I think that’s the only way schools will be open this year.
 
#35
Chicago
As cases/deaths fell even after states were reopening in late April/early May, there was consensus that we’d probably see SOME sort of increase coming.

Hopefully, by the end of July, we look back at this increase in case rate as the start of a minor increase, subsequent leveling off, and eventual decrease.

I think that’s the only way schools will be open this year.
I share your hope, but also hold a fair amount of skepticism that we'll level off and decrease quickly enough. My guess is that in the next 2 or 3 weeks, we'll see more traction around postponing the season or limiting schedules to conference-only.
 
#36
As cases/deaths fell even after states were reopening in late April/early May, there was consensus that we’d probably see SOME sort of increase coming.

Hopefully, by the end of July, we look back at this increase in case rate as the start of a minor increase, subsequent leveling off, and eventual decrease.

I think that’s the only way schools will be open this year.
I just keep reminding myself that the plan isn't to kill the virus but to slow it down so our health care system can deal with it
 
#37
I just keep reminding myself that the plan isn't to kill the virus but to slow it down so our health care system can deal with it
And to buy time to allow a vaccine to be developed. Ultimately, that is likely the only way out of this that doesn't involve mass death on a much more unimaginable scale.

I really hope we get football this fall. Color me skeptical. I think the success or failure of MLB's effort to resume play later this month will be very informative for other leagues.
 
#38
It makes me sad to say, but my expectation is that there is a significantly less than 50% chance the season gets started and a close to zero chance it gets fully played. I think it’s highly likely that at least one P5 team experiences an outbreak during training camp, at which point there will be enormous pressure to cancel, to which naturally cautious administrators will cave. This, even though the CDC data shows that hospitalization rates among young people are much lower than cumulative influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points during recent influenza seasons. Stated differently, even though the data strongly suggests that the Covid-19 health risks to young generally healthy people (ie Athletes) is very low, that won’t stop some administrators from taking the even more safe approach of just shutting down a team at the first signs of outbreak. Once one team in a conference shuts down, the whole thing falls apart.

Making me more pessimistic is my belief that the risk of infection will increase substantially as we head into the Fall, when classes are in session and kids spend a lot more time indoors. As an historical example, during the 1918 pandemic, the second wave in the Fall was much larger and deadlier than the initial wave in the Spring. Ugh.

Hate to be Debbie Downer, but it’s July and none of the trend lines I see are positive. Cases are skyrocketing in the heat of summer when kids are outside a lot and not confined in classrooms. No bueno.
 
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#39
Always Illini
Central Illinois
It makes me sad to say, but my expectation is that there is a significantly less than 50% chance the season gets started and a close to zero chance it gets fully played. I think it’s highly likely that at least one P5 team experiences an outbreak during training camp, at which point there will be enormous pressure to cancel, to which naturally cautious administrators will cave. This, even though the CDC data shows that hospitalization rates among young people are much lower than cumulative influenza hospitalization rates at comparable time points during recent influenza seasons. Stated differently, even though the data strongly suggests that the Covid-19 health risks to young generally healthy people (ie Athletes) is very low, that won’t stop some administrators from taking the even more safe approach of just shutting down a team at the first signs of outbreak. Once one team in a conference shuts down, the whole thing falls apart.

Making me more pessimistic is my belief that the risk of infection will increase substantially as we head into the Fall, when classes are in session and kids spend a lot more time indoors. As an historical example, during the 1918 pandemic, the second wave in the Fall was much larger and deadlier than the initial wave in the Spring. Ugh.

Hate to be Debbie Downer, but it’s July and none of the trend lines I see are positive. Cases are skyrocketing in the heat of summer when kids are outside a lot and not confined in classrooms. No bueno.
It is sad to see this trend but I see no way that any of the sports get a season in this year. USC just announced that all classes will start online for the fall. That is happening in a number of smaller schools too. With the skyrocketing infections and the trend toward younger people getting infected I cannot imagine a scenario in which higher education continues largely in person and sports continue. I too and very sad to say it and would truly love to see any sort of season for these athletes (and fans too) but I don't see it happening.
 
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#41
Pretty sure the health care system is not overwhelmed and hasn't been through this whole "pandemic" outside of a few isolated cities.
Basically just the NYC area so far. Texas, Arizona, and Florida hospitals are nearing capacity, though, so it's not out of the realm of possibility to see something similar happen in, say, Houston or Phoenix in the near future. It's not a given, either, of course.

Mass death hasn't happened and won't... if you follow the numbers the number of cases goes up and the death rate continues to plummet.
The families and friends of roughly 131,000 Americans (so far) would likely beg to differ.

Death rate trails case rate. It's too early to determine whether that trend continues. Additionally, death rate is also related to hospital capacity, so it was much higher when NYC was completely inundated and has dropped off since as they have returned to having enough capacity. This trend could easily reverse if one or more other major cities hit crisis levels like NYC did.

The answer to the problem is herd immunity ( and allowing our bodies to do their thing fighting disease) not a vaccine that only covers a specific strain.
Essentially all epidemiologists disagree with you. A vaccine is the short path to herd immunity. Letting the virus run wild through the population will, on the other hand, almost certainly overwhelm healthcare systems nationwide and lead to an explosion in deaths.

That's why a lot of people still get the flu after getting the flu shot. It's because it only covers specific strains.
This isn't the flu. There aren't dozens of strains of this where we have to make our best guess. Further, strains develop through mutation, so the odds of developing more strains increases if you let it run rampant through the population and have more hosts within whom to mutate. If you keep it suppressed as much as possible until there is a vaccine, you minimize its opportunities to develop into new strains.

I'm curious how many of the athletes are actually concerned about covid-19. I'm guessing the reason we only hear about the ones who are concerned is because everyone who is not worried is being politically correct and afraid of being ostrasized for voicing their opinion.
I truly don't understand how this has become an issue of "political correctness" at all. 131,000 Americans have died in a few months. 521,000 people worldwide have died in a few months. Other countries have shown that suppression works. How is this at all controversial?
 
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#43
Baja Ontario
My concerns are that deaths lag well behind virus onset and they also increase when treatment resources are exceeded. So cautious optimism while remaining anxiously wary.
 
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#44
Cary, IL
My concerns are that deaths lag well behind virus onset and they also increase when treatment resources are exceeded. So cautious optimism while remaining anxiously wary.
I am not as worried about the deaths jumping up, based on what I have seen. However, there are serious, long lasting side effects for some that are even young and healthy.
 
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#46
Forgottonia
U of I prof predicts college football deaths due to covid 19. Dr Sheldon Jacobson, a computer data modeling expert, was also on Saturday Sports Talk. He pointed out the “normal” death rate is more than would be expected from covid, but we all know that won’t be what’s in the headlines. I’m more pessimistic about fall sports than I was a few weeks ago. Esp since athletes are starting to speak out. As they have every right to do.
 
#48
ICE: Foreign Students Must Leave The U.S. If Their Colleges Go Online-Only This Fall

Sydney Brown, S, Illinois (Canada)
Blake Hayes, P, Illinois (Australia)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/hmkw7c/ice_foreign_students_must_leave_the_us_if_their/
Our immigration system is broken. Students who are trying to better themselves through education, not being allowed to stay while trying to do things the right way, is embarrassing to me as an American.

Next point, what are they supposed to do if they live in a country with poor/inconsistent internet access? How do they keep up with studies, and consequently, how do they remain eligible?

Finally, where do they go if they live in a country that has travel bans on people coming from the US?
 
#50
Forgottonia
ICE: Foreign Students Must Leave The U.S. If Their Colleges Go Online-Only This Fall

Sydney Brown, S, Illinois (Canada)
Blake Hayes, P, Illinois (Australia)

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/hmkw7c/ice_foreign_students_must_leave_the_us_if_their/
Won’t matter anyway at that point. If there are no students on campus there will be no fall sports.

I‘m guessing it’s a bit more nuanced than the headline. There are countries that aren’t allowing travelers from the US in right now. I’d guess Australia is one of those since they closed their borders quickly before.