Coronavirus Pandemic

#51
And to buy time to allow a vaccine to be developed. Ultimately, that is likely the only way out of this that doesn't involve mass death on a much more unimaginable scale.

I really hope we get football this fall. Color me skeptical. I think the success or failure of MLB's effort to resume play later this month will be very informative for other leagues.
The Premiership and Bundesliga are both playing, which is more akin to the contact involved in basketball. Baseball has already screwed up testing, the knuckleheads.
 
#52
Fortunately, studies are already underway to begin looking into the long-term impact off COVID-19.

Regarding the vaccine concerns, vaccine safety is heavily monitored during their development, and ongoing monitoring is conducted millions of times over as they are administered to the public. Decades on decades of vaccine research & development has shown extremely low, if any long-term effects, let alone severe side effects. These strict guidelines are in place for the safety of the public and is why the development of a COVID-19 vaccine cannot be rushed nor shouldn't be expected by the end of the year.
 
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#53
The Premiership and Bundesliga are both playing, which is more akin to the contact involved in basketball. Baseball has already screwed up testing, the knuckleheads.
Sure, but both of those leagues are playing in countries that are better off than we are at the moment. We will see.
 
#54
Fortunately, studies are already underway to begin looking into the long-term impact off COVID-19.

Regarding the vaccine concerns, vaccine safety is heavily monitored during their development, and ongoing monitoring is conducted millions of times over as they are administered to the public. Decades on decades of vaccine research & development has shown extremely low, if any long-term effects, let alone severe side effects. These strict guidelines are in place for the safety of the public and is why the development of a COVID-19 vaccine cannot be rushed nor shouldn't be expected by the end of the year.
Out of context this post by me looks out of place. I'll provide some clarity in that it was in response to what looks to be a post that looks to have been removed.
 
#56
Situation is grim, that's for sure.

Cases are surging to new records right as practice is beginning
On-campus vs on-line student learning is a huge disruption to the college model that supports sports
Team sports are inherently super-spreader events
Strong evidence that a large population within college sports (African Americans) have worse outcomes from Covid
The money flow from revenue sports is at risk of collapsing
Leadership is fragmenting into conference affiliations
Oh, and America has a large swath of anti-science conservatives that want to turn this into a political fight more than they want to help with the pandemic problem

Did I miss anything?

I appreciate the optimism that's currently driving the planning, but if conference schools diverge (and they will) on how to handle student learning, it may force the dominoes to fall in the opposite direction of where they're aiming for. Like everyone here, I want to see the pandemic under control, students, especially those with high-risk conditions, able to safely continue their plans. But I just have a hard time believing the current plans are justified.

Please forgive my pessimism. TIA
 
#57
Houston, Texas
Australia will be interesting to watch to see if there is an uptick since they are hitting winter season.
Looks like Australia is increasing in the number of cases so that does not bode well for the rest of the world. Deaths are negligible in Australia but it’s a lagging indicator. We will know more in 6 weeks.
 
#59
I don't know JACK about viruses nor the medical field. But I keep seeing post about positive results for a vaccine. How long does it take to get into circulation if one is developed? If it could be going around within 6 months, I think we will play. There are a lot of powerful people looking at losing A LOT of money if we don't have a season. Money trumps all sadly
 
#60
I don't know JACK about viruses nor the medical field. But I keep seeing post about positive results for a vaccine. How long does it take to get into circulation if one is developed? If it could be going around within 6 months, I think we will play. There are a lot of powerful people looking at losing A LOT of money if we don't have a season. Money trumps all sadly
I am by no means an expert, but from my understanding from the articles I've read while there has been good news on the vaccine, that was a relatively limited trial and it is very early on in the testing. So I'm still not expecting an approved vaccine until at least next year
 
#61
st petersburg, fl
I don't know JACK about viruses nor the medical field. But I keep seeing post about positive results for a vaccine. How long does it take to get into circulation if one is developed? If it could be going around within 6 months, I think we will play. There are a lot of powerful people looking at losing A LOT of money if we don't have a season. Money trumps all sadly
Lots of variables in that, but unlikely we'll get enough people vaccinated by end of year for that to be the reason we're able to get back to football (not saying we won't get back to football, but vaccine in 6months likely won't be the reason):
  • September is the absolute earliest you're going to get phase 3 data from Moderna (most advanced US program). More likely it'll be end of year/early next year, but there's a possibility politics will play into it and Trump administration will push to have early data published pre-election. Assuming that early data is good enough for approval (risky - but this whole process has been risky), then the earliest you have distribution is October.
  • Problem is manufacturing capacity (and the potential politics around it). Moderna has said they'll be able to do 500M doses annually...eventually (and you need 2 doses/person 1 month apart, so capacity for 250M people). Likely won't be there right away and there's questions on how it'll be allocated by country (does US take all initial capacity for itself? share with others assuming it's first or one of the first?). I'm guessing they won't have that capacity until early 2021. That means whatever capacity they do have will be allocated to high risk people (elderly, healthcare workers, etc.)
  • There are other programs that are not too far behind (J&J, AstraZeneca, etc.) that'll help with capacity, but also unlikely to have meaningful impact by end of 2020
Of course, the above all assumes that the vaccines work. We only have phase 1 data from Moderna, and it's just antibody data. The FDA has said antibody levels are not sufficient to prove a vaccine works. There's been several examples of vaccines where antibody data looked good but actually immunity wasn't good (RSV, and i believe SARS is the other one). I'd google Ken Frazier's comments (Merck CEO) if you want to learn more about that. It's promising, but we're still in the 3rd inning of this game, and Moderna's platform has never had an approved product and was only tested on 45 people.
 
#62
Omaha, Nebraska
I am by no means an expert, but from my understanding from the articles I've read while there has been good news on the vaccine, that was a relatively limited trial and it is very early on in the testing. So I'm still not expecting an approved vaccine until at least next year
Also, add on top of that the amount of time to manufacture and distribute the vaccines to the world population. I am no expert either, but I would imagine once it IS approved and vaccines start rolling out, it's not healthy college athletes who will be given top priority. I love college sports as much as anyone, but there are certainly more people in need of being in front of most athletes in terms of place in line.
 
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#63
Omaha, Nebraska
Lots of variables in that, but unlikely we'll get enough people vaccinated by end of year for that to be the reason we're able to get back to football (not saying we won't get back to football, but vaccine in 6months likely won't be the reason):
  • September is the absolute earliest you're going to get phase 3 data from Moderna (most advanced US program). More likely it'll be end of year/early next year, but there's a possibility politics will play into it and Trump administration will push to have early data published pre-election. Assuming that early data is good enough for approval (risky - but this whole process has been risky), then the earliest you have distribution is October.
  • Problem is manufacturing capacity (and the potential politics around it). Moderna has said they'll be able to do 500M doses annually...eventually (and you need 2 doses/person 1 month apart, so capacity for 250M people). Likely won't be there right away and there's questions on how it'll be allocated by country (does US take all initial capacity for itself? share with others assuming it's first or one of the first?). I'm guessing they won't have that capacity until early 2021. That means whatever capacity they do have will be allocated to high risk people (elderly, healthcare workers, etc.)
  • There are other programs that are not too far behind (J&J, AstraZeneca, etc.) that'll help with capacity, but also unlikely to have meaningful impact by end of 2020
Of course, the above all assumes that the vaccines work. We only have phase 1 data from Moderna, and it's just antibody data. The FDA has said antibody levels are not sufficient to prove a vaccine works. There's been several examples of vaccines where antibody data looked good but actually immunity wasn't good (RSV, and i believe SARS is the other one). I'd google Ken Frazier's comments (Merck CEO) if you want to learn more about that. It's promising, but we're still in the 3rd inning of this game, and Moderna's platform has never had an approved product and was only tested on 45 people.
You said it better than I did. haha, I should have read your response before I posted mine.
 
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#64
Also, add on top of that the amount of time to manufacture and distribute the vaccines to the world population. I am no expert either, but I would imagine once it IS approved and vaccines start rolling out, it's not healthy college athletes who will be given top priority. I love college sports as much as anyone, but there are certainly more people in need of being in front of most athletes in terms of place in line.
i think somebody said this earlier but it’s a great point. the successful trial needs 2 doses about a month apart. So obviously the entire worlds population probably won’t be getting the vaccine but, however many do you 2x that number. So maybe 10-12 billion doses for the 5-6 billion people who get it?

how long does that take to manufacture
 
#65
Houston, Texas
Lots of variables in that, but unlikely we'll get enough people vaccinated by end of year for that to be the reason we're able to get back to football (not saying we won't get back to football, but vaccine in 6months likely won't be the reason):
  • September is the absolute earliest you're going to get phase 3 data from Moderna (most advanced US program). More likely it'll be end of year/early next year, but there's a possibility politics will play into it and Trump administration will push to have early data published pre-election. Assuming that early data is good enough for approval (risky - but this whole process has been risky), then the earliest you have distribution is October.
  • Problem is manufacturing capacity (and the potential politics around it). Moderna has said they'll be able to do 500M doses annually...eventually (and you need 2 doses/person 1 month apart, so capacity for 250M people). Likely won't be there right away and there's questions on how it'll be allocated by country (does US take all initial capacity for itself? share with others assuming it's first or one of the first?). I'm guessing they won't have that capacity until early 2021. That means whatever capacity they do have will be allocated to high risk people (elderly, healthcare workers, etc.)
  • There are other programs that are not too far behind (J&J, AstraZeneca, etc.) that'll help with capacity, but also unlikely to have meaningful impact by end of 2020
Of course, the above all assumes that the vaccines work. We only have phase 1 data from Moderna, and it's just antibody data. The FDA has said antibody levels are not sufficient to prove a vaccine works. There's been several examples of vaccines where antibody data looked good but actually immunity wasn't good (RSV, and i believe SARS is the other one). I'd google Ken Frazier's comments (Merck CEO) if you want to learn more about that. It's promising, but we're still in the 3rd inning of this game, and Moderna's platform has never had an approved product and was only tested on 45 people.
I'd guess that if the Phase 3 results look "promising", they will "somehow" find a third party to make more than the 500M they can make, assuming they haven't already found a partner to help manufacture it.
 
#66
I'd guess that if the Phase 3 results look "promising", they will "somehow" find a third party to make more than the 500M they can make, assuming they haven't already found a partner to help manufacture it.
I wouldn't be shocked if big money finds a way to get those vaccines to athletes that make them big money. You feel me?
 
#67
st petersburg, fl
I'd guess that if the Phase 3 results look "promising", they will "somehow" find a third party to make more than the 500M they can make, assuming they haven't already found a partner to help manufacture it.
They've done that. A few companies that have partnered with vaccine companies for manufacturing (with Moderna as well as others) are Emergent Bioslutions, Catalent, Lonza, etc. But you can only build capacity so fast and it's not like there's a ton of capacity laying around (vaccine manufacturing is hard). J&J is building 3 new facilities specifically for COVID vaccines, but they don't expect to be at full capacity (1B doses/yr) until late 2021 (as a side note, building 3 manufacturing facilities for a drug that hasn't even started human clinical trials is unheard of, they're taking a fair amount of financial risk there).
 
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#73
Cary, IL
So what are they going to do, tell the "student athletes" to stop going to class?
My daughter is at U of I, she is only going to have 1 in person class this semester, a chemistry lab. And, she could have done that remotely too, if she chose. Before anyone asks, labs last semester were done where one person did the lab, and the students had to figure out the mistakes that they made from reviewing the data. I would think going bubble after Christmas, could work. 2 week quarantine, push all conference games to 2021, play games every 3-4 days starting 1/10. By 3/6, that is 17 games. Just spit-balling here.
 
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