Well it's year three of the Lovie tenure, that isn't some sort of argument, thats plain fact. If you want to debate whether he gets a pass the first year, I could see arguments on both sides, and yes I think to those who matter in the AD, this is consider his second "graded" year.
The bolded is the part that interests me. Are you suggesting that if he doesn't make a bowl next year, he's gone? For a team that hasn't passed half the wins necessary to become bowl eligible in back to back year, with a possibility of making that a three-peat, it's a bold claim. Our schedule is about as light as it'll ever get next year, but that's a plateau this team has looked up to for a while now.
For now, I'll stick with Whitman's prescribed "progress" as the measuring stick. The first 5 games showed progress, the last two, I'm not so sure.