The Illini had one of their highest average ratings for a recruiting class, yet, due to a small class size, 247 ranked them 13th in the Big Ten. Is this a fair assessment? In this post, I will stack the Illini against all of the Big Ten West opponents, as well as Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State and Rutgers in the East. (No need to try to compare with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State.)
My methodology is simple. I took the individual ratings from 247's class calculator and made bar graphs to see how they stack up. Some players had no rating and are ignored. The class calculator includes only recruits; transfers like Luke Ford, Richie Petitbon and A.D. Miller aren't included. (The class calculator makes it very easy for me to pull the data. Otherwise, I wouldn't be doing this.) Also, ratings can and do change, but this is where we stand as of last weekend, when I pulled the data.
Before comparing the 2019 classes, I'd like to compare the combined classes of Tim Beckman (2013-2015) with Lovie Smith (2017-2019). To be fair, I'm excluding Beckman's first class which was shortly after he was hired. Over the three years compared, they each recruited 67 players. Smith had one player rated below 0.75, so does not appear on the chart. There is no question that the talent level has increased across the board with Lovie Smith.
However, has it increased enough? In the second chart, I've added a line designating Northwestern's lowest rated player for 2019, as well as all of the players rated lower than that over the last three years. To put this in words, Northwestern has had 9 players rated at 0.8397 or lower, while Illinois has had 34. In other words, all of Northwestern's players are rated at or above the gray line.
And comparing 2019 to 2018, I don't think there is any question that this year's class is significantly better. To give some perspective, I've included Northwestern's lowest rated 2019 recruit (0.8397), which is very close to Lovie Smith's median recruit ranking (0.8390).
I won't try to place every school's recruiting rank. I'm simply going to compare the ratings and decide for or against Illinois. Since I'm conceding Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, Illinois starts out 0-3, so they can't do better than 4th. But surely they can do better than 13th, can't they?
Since I've been including Northwestern's lowest rated recruit for 2019, let's start with them. If this were for a basketball team, Illinois wins hands down. But this is football, where depth is vitally important, both in terms of the number of starters and the higher incidence of injuries.
If we shift our view to try to match up the recruits the best we can, we see that Northwestern can't touch Illinois' top three recruits, but Illinois ends up with a lot of spots they can't fill, and all above Smith's median rating. I think this is close, because the top players could be game changers. But because I think quality depth is more important, I'll concede the recruiting battle to Northwestern. That puts Illinois 0-4 in the Big Ten, and 0-1 in the division.
Going alphabetical in the division, let's look at Iowa. I've included the Northwestern lowest rated recruit for perspective. Remember, it's just a hair higher than the Lovie Smith's median recruit, so I think it gives a great marker. I think we'll see a common theme. Does the ratings of Illinois' top recruits outweigh the depth of their opponents classes? I don't think so. Advantage, Iowa. Illinois 0-5 (0-2) for those keeping score.
Next up, Minnesota. P.J. Fleck brought in twenty players in this class rated above Lovie Smith's median rated player. Depth wins out over the top three again. I now have Illinois 0-6 in the Big Ten and 0-3 in the West.
Nebraska... ouch. Scott Frost did pretty well in his first full recruiting class. No contest. Illinois 0-7 (0-4).
Purdue... Jeff Brohm brought in 22 players at or above Lovie Smith's median rated player and exceeded the Illini's highest rated recruits. Illinois 0-8 (0-5).
Wisconsin brought in an entire class rated above Lovie Smith's median rated player. If they ever bring in a highly rated quarterback... oh, crud. I now have Illinois last in the division, and 0-9 in the Big Ten.
Due to website limitations, I'll look at the East division in the next post.
My methodology is simple. I took the individual ratings from 247's class calculator and made bar graphs to see how they stack up. Some players had no rating and are ignored. The class calculator includes only recruits; transfers like Luke Ford, Richie Petitbon and A.D. Miller aren't included. (The class calculator makes it very easy for me to pull the data. Otherwise, I wouldn't be doing this.) Also, ratings can and do change, but this is where we stand as of last weekend, when I pulled the data.
Before comparing the 2019 classes, I'd like to compare the combined classes of Tim Beckman (2013-2015) with Lovie Smith (2017-2019). To be fair, I'm excluding Beckman's first class which was shortly after he was hired. Over the three years compared, they each recruited 67 players. Smith had one player rated below 0.75, so does not appear on the chart. There is no question that the talent level has increased across the board with Lovie Smith.
However, has it increased enough? In the second chart, I've added a line designating Northwestern's lowest rated player for 2019, as well as all of the players rated lower than that over the last three years. To put this in words, Northwestern has had 9 players rated at 0.8397 or lower, while Illinois has had 34. In other words, all of Northwestern's players are rated at or above the gray line.
And comparing 2019 to 2018, I don't think there is any question that this year's class is significantly better. To give some perspective, I've included Northwestern's lowest rated 2019 recruit (0.8397), which is very close to Lovie Smith's median recruit ranking (0.8390).
I won't try to place every school's recruiting rank. I'm simply going to compare the ratings and decide for or against Illinois. Since I'm conceding Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, Illinois starts out 0-3, so they can't do better than 4th. But surely they can do better than 13th, can't they?
Since I've been including Northwestern's lowest rated recruit for 2019, let's start with them. If this were for a basketball team, Illinois wins hands down. But this is football, where depth is vitally important, both in terms of the number of starters and the higher incidence of injuries.
If we shift our view to try to match up the recruits the best we can, we see that Northwestern can't touch Illinois' top three recruits, but Illinois ends up with a lot of spots they can't fill, and all above Smith's median rating. I think this is close, because the top players could be game changers. But because I think quality depth is more important, I'll concede the recruiting battle to Northwestern. That puts Illinois 0-4 in the Big Ten, and 0-1 in the division.
Going alphabetical in the division, let's look at Iowa. I've included the Northwestern lowest rated recruit for perspective. Remember, it's just a hair higher than the Lovie Smith's median recruit, so I think it gives a great marker. I think we'll see a common theme. Does the ratings of Illinois' top recruits outweigh the depth of their opponents classes? I don't think so. Advantage, Iowa. Illinois 0-5 (0-2) for those keeping score.
Next up, Minnesota. P.J. Fleck brought in twenty players in this class rated above Lovie Smith's median rated player. Depth wins out over the top three again. I now have Illinois 0-6 in the Big Ten and 0-3 in the West.
Nebraska... ouch. Scott Frost did pretty well in his first full recruiting class. No contest. Illinois 0-7 (0-4).
Purdue... Jeff Brohm brought in 22 players at or above Lovie Smith's median rated player and exceeded the Illini's highest rated recruits. Illinois 0-8 (0-5).
Wisconsin brought in an entire class rated above Lovie Smith's median rated player. If they ever bring in a highly rated quarterback... oh, crud. I now have Illinois last in the division, and 0-9 in the Big Ten.
Due to website limitations, I'll look at the East division in the next post.