After watching three full games (including last night's loss), here's my brief take on the team:
Abrams - Looks waaaay better than I expected. I was concerned that he wouldn't be the same after the achilles tear, but he looks pretty quick and much more skilled and cerebral than he was pre-injury. His shot looks terrific (even though I'm prepared for a regression to the mean). I expect him to shoot 33-36% from 3 for the year, which is a huge improvement. Still makes some bad decisions with the ball, but I think he should be playing PG full time.
Tate - Great kid, love having him on the team. Last night I thought he played pretty well overall, despite the last few minutes of the game. He is what he is: good ball handler, good passer, good effort guy, average defender, average athlete, average size, abysmal shooter. He would be a nice piece to have off the bench. He would be a solid/average backup P5 point guard. He just, IMO, should not be starting. He should be playing 8-12 mpg. I really hope that Tracy is moving over to the 1 and JCL is joining the starting lineup pronto. Tate is not a PG you can win with.
Lucas - Haven't seen much yet, obviously. Got some good run against McKendree and looked terrific, I thought. He's quicker than I anticipated - actually looks like a shifty, athletic player. From his high school highlights and reviews, I thought he'd be an average athlete, but he looks pretty dynamic. Obviously, he's not getting it done in practice or we'd see him more. Probably behind the curve with regard to defense and understanding the system. Hopefully we see more from Te'Jon as the year progresses. I'm excited about the combination of him, Trent Frazier, and Da'Monte in years to come.
JCL - Looks totally one-dimensional so far on offense. I think we were all hoping that he would be better off the dribble this year. Maybe that's still coming. (So far, he's only shot 7 two-pointers and missed all of them; every shot he's hit has been a three and he's only gotten to the line once) I'm shocked at how relatively little he's playing. I assume he's being eased back in after the hand injury. I fully expected him to be our second best player and a no-brainer starter/30-minute guy. We need him on the floor to create spacing. Physically, he looks athletic and strong.
Hill - Up and down so far. He always looks like the best player on the floor, but the results have been mixed. He's an obvious stud, but I wish he wouldn't settle for so many pull-up jumpers. I know it's his bread and butter and he's awesome from mid-range when he's feeling it, but if a few don't go in he needs to start driving all the way to the hoop and/or posting up smaller defenders.
AJ - Finding a role as a 3-and-D guy off the bench. Still looks a little overwhelmed by the speed of the game sometimes, but my gut says he's settling in. I can envision his role as an upperclassman now: long-armed wing who can match up with shooters defensively and hit spot-up jumpers in rhythm on offense. Or at least that's the floor. Every team needs 1-2 guys like that off the bench. He could still become more than that, obviously.
DJW - Showing flashes, even though he didn't really see the court last night. Inconsistent but super talented. Jury's out on whether it will ever fully click for him, but at worst he's a versatile defender who can make the occasional 'Wow!' play as a bench contributor. Still the same high ceiling, but I feel like his floor is going up.
Finke - Mixed so far. He's averaging 12.4 ppg and 7.4 reb, but his defense has been poor, his BBIQ and passing ability haven't shown up (apparent strengths of his), and the free throw shooting is just utterly baffling. This is a kid whose main role on offense is stretching the floor, but he's shooting under 42% from the charity stripe. I expect that number to go up considerably, but his form looks awful. He gives the offense a unique dimension and is a true weapon for us, but he also has some glaring weaknesses. Guessing Leron will supplant him soon in the starting lineup, especially if Mav continues to start at C.
Leron - Just one game, but he looked pretty decent. Good energy. Hit the boards harder than his 4 rebounds would indicate. Stroke looks nice. Looks more athletic than last year (obviously due to the knee). I think he'll be a quality B1G starter from here on out.
Mav - Looked terrible last night. Otherwise, has looked pretty dang good. We know what Mav brings to the table: he's an athletically limited kid with good size, good touch on his jumper, a few post moves, and no ability to defend or rebound. He's averaging 2.4 rebounds in over 22 minutes. He's literally one of the worst rebounding 6'10 centers in America. If we had the luxury of bringing him off the bench for 12-15 mpg, he'd be a true asset. As a starter, his strengths and weaknesses probably balance out, but he doesn't give us an advantage most games against P5 competition.
Thorne, Jr - Looks sluggish and heavy. Still a huge body with some skill in the paint, but he looked quicker last year. Has never been a good defender, but at least will block a shot here and there. Much better rebounder than Mav. If he and Leron are both in, we should be able to board with just about anyone. In his present condition, he's a backup caliber player that gives us an advantage occasionally based on match-ups (or mitigates what a guy like Isaac Haas can do in the paint). I thought he'd be better than this, but I think the knee and conditioning issues are going to hold him back all year. Hopefully he gives us more down the road, but I'm not super hopeful at this point. Either way, he's a useful player and seems like a good guy - glad to have him on the team.
My updated evaluation of the team is as follows:
Backcourt - If Tracy slides over primarily to PG and JCL gives us at least what he did toward the end of last year, this is a good group. Tracy looks very good, Hill is about what we expected, and we have shooting and athleticism at each position. We should be able to score a lot of points, even against good teams. If Tate continues to start and JCL regresses this year, the ceiling is a lot lower. Jordan, DJW, and Kipper are a decent set of bench players at the 2-3. I have a hunch that Te'Jon won't get much tick unless the season goes off the rails. I think that's okay, though, provided Tate returns to a backup role.
Frontcourt - I expected this to be a top-4 unit in the B1G, but now I think that was overly optimistic. I do think that Leron may emerge as a solid all-around player this year (like honorable mention all-conference level), but Finke, Morgan, and Thorne are all pretty limited. They all have unique strengths, but they'd probably be best suited as key backups at the P5 level. Don't get me wrong: they're all pretty good players. The huge concern for this group is defense. They can score, and all except Mav can rebound adequately or better. Overall, it's not a horrific unit by any means, but I think it's probably average in the B1G.
Biggest Concern - Defense. It's just not good again this year. Got to improve.
Other Concerns: Turnovers - this has been a strength for Illinois in the past, but this year we're not taking care of the ball; Heart/Killer Instinct - a perennial concern; Team Athleticism - we're pretty average, which may be an issue against NC State, WVU, FSU, MSU, IU, and a few others; Coaching - Groce has a lot to prove. Last night was demoralizing. Let's see how the team and staff bounce back.
Updated Record Prediction: 9-4 non-con, 11-7 B1G, 1-1 BTT; NCAA #9 seed, 1-1 NCAA; final record of 22-13
Anyone have a different perspective?
