Amazing to think our 2017 class, one year later, is DaMonte & Trent. I honestly don't think that's a bad class given how good Trent's been, and where I think DaMonte will get to, but it's only 2 guys. Sure hope more of this class fits.
Illini Basketball 2018-2019
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Amazing to think our 2017 class, one year later, is DaMonte & Trent. I honestly don't think that's a bad class given how good Trent's been, and where I think DaMonte will get to, but it's only 2 guys. Sure hope more of this class fits.
I think the "Underwood needs to find his type of player" argument is spot on.
Recruiting rankings are great but are not the end all be all. There is something to be said for toughness, fit in system etc. Example A is Penn State 2 years ago, who played mainly freshman. From what I understand that class was more highly ranked than Penn State's usual haul, but by no means loaded with top 100 4* type guys. On paper, we were the more talented team and also the more experienced team. But both games they whipped us. If I recall they were up 20+ at one point in each game (believe we came back at home to make it close before falling short).
We've tried the "recruit the highest rated kids possible and roll the ball out" way, and have underperformed relative to our recruiting rankings. I think it's worth a try to recruit to a system and look for toughness.
Many players will fail, but enough will flourish. I don't know about you all, but I am tired of the "how did we get our butts whipped by THOSE guys?" narrative. I am ready to flip that script.
Recruiting rankings are great but are not the end all be all. There is something to be said for toughness, fit in system etc. Example A is Penn State 2 years ago, who played mainly freshman. From what I understand that class was more highly ranked than Penn State's usual haul, but by no means loaded with top 100 4* type guys. On paper, we were the more talented team and also the more experienced team. But both games they whipped us. If I recall they were up 20+ at one point in each game (believe we came back at home to make it close before falling short).
We've tried the "recruit the highest rated kids possible and roll the ball out" way, and have underperformed relative to our recruiting rankings. I think it's worth a try to recruit to a system and look for toughness.
Many players will fail, but enough will flourish. I don't know about you all, but I am tired of the "how did we get our butts whipped by THOSE guys?" narrative. I am ready to flip that script.
I apologize because it doesn't really matter, but the average vs. total ranking thing doesn't make sense to me. Folks say that the total rating of a big class is padded by having a bunch of low-level recruits added in, and then cite an average score -- dragged down by those same low-level recruits -- as evidence. That argument dings a big class both ways, assuming the last couple of guys are chaff.
If you want to evaluate a class by taking a look at the top three or four guys only, that would make sense. And it's probably the most reasonable way to take a look at it, since you're unlikely to have a class where more than three or four guys wind up contributing.
Like I said before, though, it doesn't really matter. This class is somewhere between the 20th and 30th best in the nation no matter what score you choose to look at, and I don't think that there's a huge difference between being number 23 or 28.
Giorgi committed before Feliz or Tevian.
come on...we have exactly 2 bigs on the roster right now & they are both untested freshman, every team in America would be recruiting more bigs. He had all the minutes he could handle here & I'm not really seeing that high of a chance on any immediate impact bigs that you would say he doesn't have a fair chance of competing with in 2019.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
I would love a quality 5th year, but apparently, BU does not agree. He's the one with his neck on the line. Me, I just have my emotional stability, confidence, pride, enjoyment and alumnus status to worry about. Now that I think about it, we're about even.
What's amazing about the utterly thoughtless, reflexive devotion to The Cult Of The New Coach is the way it eliminates probably the best, strongest, most occam's razor-y justification for optimism.
The guys who left weren't fits, the guys who left weren't talented enough, the guys who left couldn't handle hard coaching, the guys who left hadn't been scouted thoroughly enough, all this balderdash whose sole and exclusive purpose is just to say words which conjure the blame outside of the realm of the savior figure. This isn't analysis, it's a Socratic thought experiment, it's like answering an SAT question or something.
What if this class and this season is going to be different because Underwood is a smart guy who possesses the ability to learn from his mistakes, take in new information, and get better?
DOES NOT COMPUTE for the Loyalty hivemind because it engages with the possibility of imperfection in the Savior Figure, but I doubt there is a successful coach in America who wouldn't point to that as a primary factor in building what they have built.
This goes for individual players as well. Whatever a player achieves was predestined by who they were as recruits, we just have to smash all these random data points into a narrative about what Good Recruits are and what Bad Recruits are. No, actually, players who are good are players who improve.
The guys who left weren't fits, the guys who left weren't talented enough, the guys who left couldn't handle hard coaching, the guys who left hadn't been scouted thoroughly enough, all this balderdash whose sole and exclusive purpose is just to say words which conjure the blame outside of the realm of the savior figure. This isn't analysis, it's a Socratic thought experiment, it's like answering an SAT question or something.
What if this class and this season is going to be different because Underwood is a smart guy who possesses the ability to learn from his mistakes, take in new information, and get better?
DOES NOT COMPUTE for the Loyalty hivemind because it engages with the possibility of imperfection in the Savior Figure, but I doubt there is a successful coach in America who wouldn't point to that as a primary factor in building what they have built.
This goes for individual players as well. Whatever a player achieves was predestined by who they were as recruits, we just have to smash all these random data points into a narrative about what Good Recruits are and what Bad Recruits are. No, actually, players who are good are players who improve.
You have to read the statement in its entirety, not pick and choose. Specifically, "the average rating of a recruit is a better indicator, combined with the positions/gaps that these highly rated recruits fill."
Again, the huge critical position gap that we have is inside game, which was already weak, and we lost Black, Finke, Ebo on top of that. The average ranking of the recruits at those positions is the problem, this is not the the top 2-3 or whatever you want to arbitrarily assign.
As mentioned, we should be better at 1-3 because the quality of players we add in those positions (also measured by average ranking) is pretty good, just an indication that some of these recruits have a higher chance of succeeding early on. I do not think anyone is worried about Ayo (and personally, from good sources that I trust, independent of rankings, Feliz will be very good). It is our inside game at 4/5 that is the problem.
None of that is wrong, but I'm not sure that recruiting rankings are well-suited to measure something so granular. I'm not trying to call you out specifically or anything, just was originally responding to a general sentiment that's popped up around this class specifically due to the low ranking of a couple of guys we brought in.
APS iMBA
- Urbana, IL
Yeah me too. Hopefully we can find someone. Everything feels last minute once again. You'd think we'd be used to this by now.
Wanted to get this out there to see what everyone has to say. i am doing a little research for a podcast that I do and stumbled across some interesting facts and wanted to share.
BU gets all the credit in the world for turning around SFA. However he did it mainly with leftover roster construction.
BU's first year at SFA. 5 players scored 10+ points all of them were on the roster the year prior.
BU's second year at SFA. 3 of the top 5 scorers and rebounders weren't his recruits. 1 freshman and 1 JR did crack top 5 in scoring. Leading scorers 1/2 were inherited from year 1 of his takeover.
BU's third year at SFA 3 of the top 6 players he DID bring in so good job on that.
Why does he get all the success in the world for succeeding at a lower level program with a majority of players there were already on the roster. We as Illinois fan can easily relate this to Weber winning with Coach Self's players. Similar scenario here, BU did do a heck of a job coaching this team to new levels that the program never had reached before but it wasn't because he brought in players that fit his system to turn that program around.
Now maybe BU had the tools he needed to succeed already on the roster but we keep saying that BU has a system and he is recruiting to fit the system. From what I can tell his didn't need to do that at SFA to succeed.
Similarly with his 1 year of success at OK State the top 5 scorers that year were inherited from the previous regime. We all know that Jawun Evans took off but I don't see the track record of BU bringing guys in to fit his system and having success.....
Thoughts?
BU gets all the credit in the world for turning around SFA. However he did it mainly with leftover roster construction.
BU's first year at SFA. 5 players scored 10+ points all of them were on the roster the year prior.
BU's second year at SFA. 3 of the top 5 scorers and rebounders weren't his recruits. 1 freshman and 1 JR did crack top 5 in scoring. Leading scorers 1/2 were inherited from year 1 of his takeover.
BU's third year at SFA 3 of the top 6 players he DID bring in so good job on that.
Why does he get all the success in the world for succeeding at a lower level program with a majority of players there were already on the roster. We as Illinois fan can easily relate this to Weber winning with Coach Self's players. Similar scenario here, BU did do a heck of a job coaching this team to new levels that the program never had reached before but it wasn't because he brought in players that fit his system to turn that program around.
Now maybe BU had the tools he needed to succeed already on the roster but we keep saying that BU has a system and he is recruiting to fit the system. From what I can tell his didn't need to do that at SFA to succeed.
Similarly with his 1 year of success at OK State the top 5 scorers that year were inherited from the previous regime. We all know that Jawun Evans took off but I don't see the track record of BU bringing guys in to fit his system and having success.....
Thoughts?
I think when asking that question, this aspect of it is impossible to ignore...
Combined Years Of Experience With Underwood On His Initial Staff Of Assistants:
Stephen F. Austin - 3
Oklahoma State - 8
Illinois - 0
skyIdub
Winged Warrior
C'mon, it's 100% Ebo's personal decision based on things we may never really know. Nobody chased him off. That's just ridiculous.
Maybe there was a personality clash with Kane? Maybe he really didn't fit with the rest of the team? Maybe he hated Chambana? Maybe the food choices were terrible? Maybe he has a girl in Chicago?
I loved thinking of a big like him running the floor as we witnessed last year, and I hope he finds a good place to flourish.
Maybe there was a personality clash with Kane? Maybe he really didn't fit with the rest of the team? Maybe he hated Chambana? Maybe the food choices were terrible? Maybe he has a girl in Chicago?
I loved thinking of a big like him running the floor as we witnessed last year, and I hope he finds a good place to flourish.
I definitely believe Underwood would say that some mistakes have been made early in his tenure in a off the record conversation. Some things may be outside of his control as well. I’m definitely one who thinks we have a good coach and staff but I also believe they are learning on the job a little bit as many of us do/have. I think he gets 3 years regardless which means his 4th year will be judgment time as to if he stays or goes. If he learned and adjusted or failed. I like the style our team played last year and it was obvious the talent wasn’t there. We will likely be bad again this year and that will be in part because he ran off half the team. He’ll get another couple chances to stock the cupboards before we know.
I think it just shows how bad off our program was when Underwood took over here. His previous stops had pieces in place that he was able to mold into a winning team/culture. That didn't work out here. I think Underwood may have been as surprised as all of us at how ill equipped this team was to play in the Big 10.
Good post, and I had posted similar thoughts in the past. Even at Illinois, Frazier, DW, and Black seemed to fit BU's "system" much better than pretty much all of his own recruits (e.g., Smith, Alstork, Vesel). Self's recruits obviously were great for Weber's system, better than his own. Ford's recruits at OSU were fine for BU's system. And on and on.
Water is wet... good, talented players fit very many systems, even independent of who successfully recruited them.
If BU is able to upgrade talent without positional gaps, he will succeed. All other often mentioned hope that BU will outcoach and outsystem B1G schools and coaches by consistently finding diamonds in the rough who will "fit" his system is hogwash.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
I love Ingram because he was a role player on the best team, but we are comparing a college redshirt senior (our memories) to a true freshman. If you want to look at the stats, Ebo had a very very good chance of blowing past Ingram's contributions to Illinois (statistics, not team success). Our memories are distorting actual production. Ingram made 10 total 3's at Illinois, spread over 62 career games. That doesn't mean a couple of those weren't big shots, but again, we shouldn't be comparing a true freshman to a redshirt senior to production based on a couple shots. Ebo would have been a good player at Illinois and checked a lot of boxes for the team's need for an athletic and frontcourt player. I agree with the original poster that Ebo's freshman stats compare favorably, if not better, than the examples.
Peoria Illini
- Peoria, IL
Equally amazing is the number of folks that automatically after one season and a trying offseason think this coach is in over his head and we are headed for a "kevin stallings death spiral".
Underwood has admitted they've had misses and they are learning from their mistakes and adjusting things.
I just find it interesting that many on this board always expect the worst and think that the grass is always greener away from Champaign.
I'm willing to give the new coach a few years to put his mark on the program. He's had success at other places and has learned from some solid coaches. As for improving players, mixed bag. Black and Kipper both improved, AJ a little improvement, Finke didn't seem to, and TeJon not a great start, but seemed to buy in and find his niche later in the season.
We'll see how DaMonte and Trent and the remaining players develop this coming season.
I think it's pretty clear that Underwood is a step up from Groce regarding coaching aspects and strategy. Can he build this program? Remains to be seen. But I'm not going to cut bait yet.
Peoria Illini
- Peoria, IL
You might be able to argue that Self's recruits were better in Weber's offense than they would have been in Self's system. The '05 team was one of the most unselfish teams that I've ever seen.
I noticed in the other classes you listed that no one was rated remotely close to what Ayo is rated. Time will tell whether this class is a building block class or not.
I don't think there is even an argument to the contrary. Self said as much himself. Those guys were tailor made for Weber's system.
t7nich
- Central IL
Agree with the bold. I was just pointing out that your assessment of him didn't really match his stats/production. I would be surprised if our staff was interested, JMO.
Brad said there will be another wave of transfers this summer, makes me think he's hoping/waiting for something to materialize?
Do you actually think Ebo a 44% free throw shooter was ever going to be a threat offensively from anywhere other than a few feet.? He played smart and did shoot but is that what we "need" from our 5 and we cant do better than that then we are screwed. I'm scratching my head why people think our new recruits or a possible transfer cant out perform that low expectation from our 5 it is not like losing Black. If I was a B10 5 dealing with that would be easy. Others we have are a threat and must be guarded!
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I agree that BU wanted him to stay. I also think Ebo realized the longer he stayed the less he was going to play. If I didnt love the Illini like I d go to UIC too unless he is good enough to play at a better program for 3 years I doubt he gets those offers, clearly you guys must. I dont feel he would have been playing much after this year
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