Illini Basketball 2018-2019

[Berg88]

Some of the guys that he brought in last year won't make it. But my personal expectation isn't, and will never be, that everyone coming in will be better than everyone going out. What I will say is that it's unlikely that the guys coming in will be markedly worse than the guys coming out, simply because the guys going out performed very poorly by high-major standards. The dust hasn't settled yet, but my expectation is that one of the guys on your list will perform well at a P5 school, and that's Coleman-Lands. (Who, incidentally, was not an Underwood recruit.) The balance of the list Including Mark Smith wound up at mid- or low-majors, and did so for a reason.


FIFY.

The "they transferred to weaker schools" analysis is getting tired. Myke Henry transferred to Bradley. Kendrick Nunn transferred to Oakland. Was that because they weren't good enough to play in the B1G? JCL went to DePaul after being an all conference freshman and setting our school record for 3-pts made as a freshman. Was he not good enough to play in the B1G?

The math is different when you are dealing with transfers. There may be better schools that would have kept Ebo if they also had the option to have him immediately eligible and not need to burn his redshirt. But that wasn't an option for anyone but us. With JCL, schools had to offer 3 years of scholarship for 2 years of play after a one year wait. Compare a freshman transfer to a high school senior. You are looking at spending 4 years of scholarships on both, but the senior is available the next year, gets to play for 4 instead of 3, and still has a redshirt available if they get injured. Those all way in favor of the senior which means the transfer has to be that much better than the incoming class to get a spot on a roster. Add on to that the fact that most of the seniors sign in the fall when the transfers don't even know they are transferring yet. The opportunities for the two are not even remotely equal, so diminishing the transfers by saying they ended up at inferior schools is superficial analysis at best.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

The "they transferred to weaker schools" analysis is getting tired. Myke Henry transferred to Bradley. Kendrick Nunn transferred to Oakland. Was that because they weren't good enough to play in the B1G? JCL went to DePaul after being an all conference freshman and setting our school record for 3-pts made as a freshman. Was he not good enough to play in the B1G?

The math is different when you are dealing with transfers. There may be better schools that would have kept Ebo if they also had the option to have him immediately eligible and not need to burn his redshirt. But that wasn't an option for anyone but us. With JCL, schools had to offer 3 years of scholarship for 2 years of play after a one year wait. Compare a freshman transfer to a high school senior. You are looking at spending 4 years of scholarships on both, but the senior is available the next year, gets to play for 4 instead of 3, and still has a redshirt available if they get injured. Those all way in favor of the senior which means the transfer has to be that much better than the incoming class to get a spot on a roster. Add on to that the fact that most of the seniors sign in the fall when the transfers don't even know they are transferring yet. The opportunities for the two are not even remotely equal, so diminishing the transfers by saying they ended up at inferior schools is superficial analysis at best.

No, it's not superficial. Your 3 to play 2 point is offset by the "I know what I'm getting" point.

Yes, the options are more limited for some, but during transfer season there are often lots of schools with gaps that make opportunities that might not have been there in the fall. Quite frankly, that's part of the reason KY had interest in Mark Smith.

You conveniently don't mention JCL's sophomore year which obviously played much more into how we was perceived in the transfer market. In fact, since we routinely talk about the sophomore jumps I've got to imagine that sophomore slumps diminish a player's value greatly.

Of course, we don't know necessarily about the interest that might have been shown by a school that wasn't reciprocated. I really can't say whether Henry had "better" offers than the one he took in his back yard.

Just curious, since this point is "superficial" what is the list of transfers that you feel were diminished by our fans but turned out much better? Myke Henry seems obvious, but do you have others?

 

[Obelix]

Just curious, since this point is "superficial" what is the list of transfers that you feel were diminished by our fans but turned out much better? Myke Henry seems obvious, but do you have others?

I think he is making a different point. Since transfers have to sit out a year, the opportunities diminish since the incoming school has to burn an extra scholarship year. So while some of them would have been attractive to some schools of the same caliber (or better), the extra scholarship year is a deterrent. That is absolutely true IMO. That is actually the big appeal of the 5th year transfers. If one could take away the provision (no sit out year), the 5th year transfer market would significantly shrink.

 

[ChiefGritty]

I think he is making a different point. Since transfers have to sit out a year, the opportunities diminish since the incoming school has to burn an extra scholarship year. So while some of them would have been attractive to some schools of the same caliber (or better), the extra scholarship year is a deterrent. That is absolutely true IMO. That is actually the big appeal of the 5th year transfers. If one could take away the provision (no sit out year), the 5th year transfer market would significantly shrink.

The crazy offer list for Cameron Johnson, who was a rare grad transfer with two scholarship years left, really proved this point. He was a decent player on a bad Pitt team, and yet had schools like UNC and Kentucky after him.

 

[dbeverly26]

The "they transferred to weaker schools" analysis is getting tired. Myke Henry transferred to Bradley. Kendrick Nunn transferred to Oakland. Was that because they weren't good enough to play in the B1G? JCL went to DePaul after being an all conference freshman and setting our school record for 3-pts made as a freshman. Was he not good enough to play in the B1G?

The math is different when you are dealing with transfers. There may be better schools that would have kept Ebo if they also had the option to have him immediately eligible and not need to burn his redshirt. But that wasn't an option for anyone but us. With JCL, schools had to offer 3 years of scholarship for 2 years of play after a one year wait. Compare a freshman transfer to a high school senior. You are looking at spending 4 years of scholarships on both, but the senior is available the next year, gets to play for 4 instead of 3, and still has a redshirt available if they get injured. Those all way in favor of the senior which means the transfer has to be that much better than the incoming class to get a spot on a roster. Add on to that the fact that most of the seniors sign in the fall when the transfers don't even know they are transferring yet. The opportunities for the two are not even remotely equal, so diminishing the transfers by saying they ended up at inferior schools is superficial analysis at best.

First, note that I did mention Coleman-Lands as a player who went to a high-major school and who I expect to perform well. You're also absolutely right to say that there are other factors in play, which is probably most notable in Nunn's case. If he didn't have the disciplinary baggage attached to his departure, he probably ends up at another P5 school.

Limiting the discussion to the players I was actually talking about -- namely, those who have left during Underwood's tenure minus Coleman-Lands -- I think that there's a decent amount of evidence that they weren't guys who were going to get a ton of burn with a P5 program. And it's not just because there aren't enough slots on P5 teams for transfers, either. The majority of B1G teams had transfers on their roster last season, and that's not an anomaly. Transfers are a part of the modern game, and that goes for basically every program in the NCAA.

 

[TCTORNADO]

This is partially true. The lower ranked guys don't really add much value in those rankings. Using the class calculator, we'd be 31st with just Tevian Jones, Ayo, and Alan Griffin, instead of 25th with the entire group.

The real injustice in that class calculator is Andres Feliz with a .8678 score which would place him at #328 in the class. Not even close.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

I think he is making a different point. Since transfers have to sit out a year, the opportunities diminish since the incoming school has to burn an extra scholarship year. So while some of them would have been attractive to some schools of the same caliber (or better), the extra scholarship year is a deterrent. That is absolutely true IMO. That is actually the big appeal of the 5th year transfers. If one could take away the provision (no sit out year), the 5th year transfer market would significantly shrink.

I understand what he's saying and I don't deny that for some situations that's a factor. But he's claiming we're diminishing kids based on where they end up. My point is that if we've diminished them there should be a substantial list of guys who we talked down but then burned it up where they landed. I'm not seeing it.

No one was talking down Nunn because of his landing spot. But others we did, and for good reason. They landed at a lower level because that's probably where they belonged. And lo, they're stats demonstrate it.

 

[alaskaillini]

If we get to the point where a player transfers out to be at a "better program," then we are in real trouble.

 

[Berg88]

First, note that I did mention Coleman-Lands as a player who went to a high-major school and who I expect to perform well. You're also absolutely right to say that there are other factors in play, which is probably most notable in Nunn's case. If he didn't have the disciplinary baggage attached to his departure, he probably ends up at another P5 school.

Limiting the discussion to the players I was actually talking about -- namely, those who have left during Underwood's tenure minus Coleman-Lands -- I think that there's a decent amount of evidence that they weren't guys who were going to get a ton of burn with a P5 program. And it's not just because there aren't enough slots on P5 teams for transfers, either. The majority of B1G teams had transfers on their roster last season, and that's not an anomaly. Transfers are a part of the modern game, and that goes for basically every program in the NCAA.

Regarding Nunn, that's very much part of my point, you can't judge the player simply be where the land, there are other factors at play and deeper analysis is required. And to be fair to you, I don't think you were claiming that you were only looking at their landing spots, my complaint was more with the notion than you specifically. With respect to the players who left this past year, Mark Smith obviously ended up at a P5 school, Finke supposedly had offers from PSU, Stanford, Vandy, and Nevada, Ebo, I think, will find success at Northeastern (whatever that means for what his career here could have been is a mystery to me), and Matic seems like it wasn't a good fit at all.

 

[dbeverly26]

Regarding Nunn, that's very much part of my point, you can't judge the player simply be where the land, there are other factors at play and deeper analysis is required. And to be fair to you, I don't think you were claiming that you were only looking at their landing spots, my complaint was more with the notion than you specifically. With respect to the players who left this past year, Mark Smith obviously ended up at a P5 school, Finke supposedly had offers from PSU, Stanford, Vandy, and Nevada, Ebo, I think, will find success at Northeastern (whatever that means for what his career here could have been is a mystery to me), and Matic seems like it wasn't a good fit at all.

Sure, and you could spill a lot of ink discussing why kids transfer to various programs and what it all means. I guess my point of view is that most of what we lost over the past year is replaceable for the most part, and there were factors likely out of Underwood's control that caused some of the turnover (notably, with Black and Ebo). Between that and my belief that we're not really close to a point of no return with respect to recruiting, I can't get behind the assumption that whatever the past six months was is going to be a recurring cycle for the balance of Underwood's tenure.

It's all hand-waving right now owing to the fact that everyone here knows about 5% of the story, myself included. But we got another week until tipoff, so I'm gonna wave those hands.

 

[Dan]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1055570464498696192

 

[Deleted member 643761]

I don't follow all of our transfers that closely, but I know Myke Henry, Nunn, and Jamar Smith all played well at smaller schools. But again, that isn't altogether the point, the point is that you can't simply say "their transfer offer sheet isn't impressive, therefore none of the other B1G coaches think they are good enough to play here."

First, when people diminish players who leave, it's not for guys leaving who are forced out for academics or behavior. (Nunn and Jamar) I'm sure that there was plenty of dissing of Henry, especially about the SF vs PF issue. But those guys who left and went to lesser schools almost always turned out to be lesser players. although, you can go back to Kyle Wilson and Scott Shaffer and find exceptions there. but who else, truly?

 

[Sizzler22]

Myke Henry transferred to DePaul not Bradley.....and is now in the NBA. I think you are thinking of Shaw transferring to Bradley.

 

[Berg88]

First, when people diminish players who leave, it's not for guys leaving who are forced out for academics or behavior. (Nunn and Jamar) I'm sure that there was plenty of dissing of Henry, especially about the SF vs PF issue. But those guys who left and went to lesser schools almost always turned out to be lesser players. although, you can go back to Kyle Wilson and Scott Shaffer and find exceptions there. but who else, truly?

My whole point has been that the place a transfer lands is not necessarily indicative of their ability to contribute in the Big Ten. There are transfer players who have the skill to contribute on successful Big Ten teams who will not get the opportunity to transfer to those teams. Having a best offer from UW-Milwaukee as a sophomore transfer is different than having a best offer from UW-Milwaukee as a high school senior.

I gave you 3 players from the last 10 years, there are probably more from longer ago, there may be more from the last 10 years I don't recall. You dismissed 2 of them by looking closely at their situations rather than just looking at where they went. That, of course, is very much the point. Looking closely at the player and their situation is a much better plan for determining if they could be successful in major college basketball than just looking at what school they transfer to. You could say that just looking at the transfer school, and not the player and the situation, is superficial...

I've mentioned this regarding Ebo several times now. His stat line from last year compares favorably to Egwu's freshman stat line. Egwu ended up being an all-conference defensive player and our all time blocks leader. Ebo ends up at Northeastern. If he stayed, I doubt he would have broken Egwu's record, but the fact that people are so comfortable dismissing him as not good enough to even be on the team is, in my opinion, wrong headed. And to reduce it down to "Ebo is at Northeastern, obviously he couldn't hack it in the Big Ten" is lazy, poor analysis.

In 18 months, we may have a few more people as evidence for my side. But we may not as well. That's ok, I'm not saying that Ebo and Matic are going to be great wherever they go (not even sure Matic is playing?). I'm just saying that I'm not ready to write these players off because of the schools they transferred to. Hope that makes sense.

 

[Illini_1979]

Fletch gettin' it done.

 

[Obelix]

First, when people diminish players who leave, it's not for guys leaving who are forced out for academics or behavior. (Nunn and Jamar) I'm sure that there was plenty of dissing of Henry, especially about the SF vs PF issue. But those guys who left and went to lesser schools almost always turned out to be lesser players. although, you can go back to Kyle Wilson and Scott Shaffer and find exceptions there. but who else, truly?

A few comments:

1) I do not see the need to diminish players who leave for whatever reason, including players who graduate. Some posters feel the need to put down players leaving, to feel good about players coming in. It is not that players are getting paid millions of dollars to do a job and they fail, players get recruited and represent the University. Even if a player does not belong at that level, the blame should be with the coaches who offered him a scholarship, not the player. You can certainly critique skills, style of play, etc. but why dis them on the way out? No need for that, There are a couple of players in particular that IMO posters unnecessarily diminished them on the way out the last few years: Finke and Tate. Again JMO.

2) We have not had many players who transferred and did not perform at next destination. Some players who had injuries (e.g., Shaw) or some players who did not belong and transferred after a coaching change (e.g., Djimde). Sure there have been some players like Colbert, etc. but recent transfer players like JCL, Smith, TJL, Finke, and Ebo still have a chance to become better players at their next destination. The jury is still out on them.

3) It would be more appropriate to be more critical of players who left because of disciplinary, legal, and academic reasons, than the other way around, players who were true student-athletes but did not have the best skills. The blame there again should be with the coaches who recruited them, professionals who get paid millions of dollars to make solid decisions.

4) On your question, there are some other players (in addition to Henry) who transferred and had very good, if not great, careers at their next destination. From recent transfers, Aaron Cosby certainly did much better averaging 13.7 ppg at Western Kentucky, and even Devin Langford (though at lower level) eventually had a solid career at Kentucky Wesleyan where he became a double digit scorer all of his remaining 3 years. At the highest level, although in the 90s, Brett Robisch went on to become a star at Oklahoma State. Ryan Blackwell went to become a 3-yr starter at Syracuse where he had a very solid career (better than Illinois). And Awvee Storey transferred from Illinois, had a very good career at ASU, and later played in the NBA (currently an assistant at WNBA).

 

[ILLinoize92]

Myke Henry transferred to DePaul not Bradley.....and is now in the NBA. I think you are thinking of Shaw transferring to Bradley.

Myke Henry was briefly in the NBA, I think he's in Isreal playing now. Just a small correction

 

[Obelix]

Fletch gettin' it done.

That is indeed a very nice piece of work by Illini Athletics. Well done!

 

[FeelYourPaign]

Fletch gettin' it done.

I think that was about 400 lbs that AJ was squatting. Woof !

 

[westms77]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1055570464498696192

Give the man a raise

 

[illinitiger]

The real injustice in that class calculator is Andres Feliz with a .8678 score which would place him at #328 in the class. Not even close.

Great example that ratings aren't everything...and the staff is looking below the radar. Hi IQ players and athletes seems to be staff themes. Giorgi and Andres were definitely below the radar promising pickups that dont contribute to any star rating analysis or pontifications.

 

[StateFarmCenter]

Great example that ratings aren't everything...and the staff is looking below the radar. Hi IQ players and athletes seems to be staff themes. Giorgi and Andres were definitely below the radar promising pickups that dont contribute to any star rating analysis or pontifications.

We should probably watch them play a game before making such comments, Giorgi in particular. His hs tape was some of the worst I've ever seen for an Illinois recruit so I get his ranking. Hope he proves me wrong. I dont think random scrimmage reports when hes matched up vs an incredibly raw 18 year old is enough to say otherwise yet.

 

[Krush 2010]

Only 7 days until we see this years product on the court for the first time! Hopefully, that'll calm down some of the doomsday people.

 

[Berg88]

We should probably watch them play a game before making such comments, Giorgi in particular. His hs tape was some of the worst I've ever seen for an Illinois recruit so I get his ranking. Hope he proves me wrong. I dont think random scrimmage reports when hes matched up vs an incredibly raw 18 year old is enough to say otherwise yet.

Lots of people on this board treat freshman bigs like lottery tickets. Before they know what will happen, they enjoy living the fantasy where we hit it big. But once they scratch it off and see that it's just another ordinary freshman big, they want to toss it aside and get a new one.

 

[Berg88]

Only 7 days until we see this years product on the court for the first time! Hopefully, that'll calm down some of the doomsday people.

My guess is, for a lot of people (myself included), there is no possible out outcome against Illinois Wesleyan that increases my confidence.