Illini Basketball 2018-2019

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Bonnaroo Land
Oregon has 5 other guys who are at least his height. The Illini have 3, and one of them can't run. Oregon is also extremely young, like the Illini, but still managed to get a big win against Syracuse. (2 Sr., 1 Jr, 4 Soph, 6 Fr.) Two of the freshmen are arguably top 10 recruits, and nearly all of them are top 100. If they are mediocre, we are a complete disaster... I fail to see how Francis wouldn't be getting more than 7-8 minutes a game at Illinois, but it doesn't really matter. We will never know.
Premise fails due to the high rankings of their recruits compared to ours.
 
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Wasn’t Myers Leonard a two and done? I recall a shaky, foul ridden freshman year and then a much better sophomore year.
Meyers Leonard is an athletic 7'1... a lot more NBA teams draft on pure potential when you are that size and shape I think.
 
The A
Meyers could have used another year of college ball, but as I recall his family's financial situation wasn't ideal.
 
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Little Rock, Arkansas
Meyers Leonard is an athletic 7'1... a lot more NBA teams draft on pure potential when you are that size and shape I think.
Definitely true. I was more responding to the post that said we didn’t ever have any two and through guys. But completely agree that Leonard was drafted on his major potential.
 
Premise fails due to the high rankings of their recruits compared to ours.
I will clarify... I think Oregon will be quite a bit better than mediocre by the time March rolls around. They have a good coach and loads of talent. They dropped a couple of questionable games, but will probably play better and more consistently as the season goes on.
I doubt Okoro is surprised by his lack of playing time this season. The guys playing ahead of him were either already there or already committed when he headed to oregon. If early playing time was a huge factor for him, he would already be in Champaign.
 
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Would we be getting quality minutes from him right now though? There is a reason he is getting the minutes he is right now. So if he isn't playing on a mediocre team, he probably isn't ready.
OK, how about Castleton not getting any minutes on a great Michigan team. He'd be getting all he could handle here.
 
That's an ambitious goal for a top 30 prospect. We've had some great players at Illinois, and we have never even had an actual two and done. We did have a couple guys that sat out one year and played 2.
Wasn’t Meyers 2 and done?

Edit: Nevermind. It’s been answered in the thread. Frank should’ve been 2 and done. Coming back for his Junior Year cost him about 20 draft slots and several million dollars.
 
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I've watched a couple of Oregon games as the other team I follow closely is in the Pac 12. In addition to Bol, the Ducks have Wooten and Paul White (formerly of G'Town). Next year the Ducks have two PFs and a center coming on board, but White will be gone and most likely Bol. I keep an eye out for Okoro when I watch Oregon, but sightings are few and far between. He did get some tick in their first two games as lower-level teams but not much since.
 
Sorry don’t know how to post the pics but they are nice. Much better than men’s. We need to stick out. Wear orange more
 
Wanted to post some statistical findings so far this season, please see below!

Offense:
- Free Throw Rate: (309/353) - 27.2% of all possessions end up at the charity stripe, one of lowest in D1. This is more indicative of personnel v system IMO. Coach's spread system stresses constant attacking of the rim, team will get better.

- 3PT Attempt Rate: (167/353) - Coach trusts analytics and understands shot distribution. Great sign for offensive attack that wants to be multi-dimensional and balanced.

- Assist Percentage: (102/353) - At 55.6% Illinois is in the upper-third of scores coming from assists. I expect even more improvement as season goes on due to system understanding. Coach does not want the ball to stick. Ranking also reflects a team oriented approach as opposed to favoring isolation moments for players.

Defense:
- Free Throw Rate: (5/353) - This goes without saying. Illinois fouls too much. This is a must fix.

- Total Rebound Percentage: (62/353) - Preseason rebounding concerns have been validated. The emergence of Samba Kane can do wonders for the rest of the season.

- Assist Percentage: (105/353) - A staple of Coach's defensive system where teams cannot get into their usual offensive rhythm against the Illini. A great sign that the pressure defense turns teams to play 1-1 instead of 5v5

- Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage: (97/353) - More proof that Coach's defensive system is effective. In the 83 percentile of team defenses in the category that accounts for the fact that a three-pointer is greater than a traditional field goal. Once again hammers home the thought that less fouling will only skyrocket defensive efficiency.

- Turn Over Percentage: (19/353) - Wouldn't be right to not include how often Illinois is turning over opponents. Absolutely elite in forcing turnovers and will always be this way with Coach.

Overall Takeaways:

On offense, Illinois is still working on attacking the rim. If Samba Kane can continue his growth than expect Illinois to draw more fouls. Furthermore, a real rim threat will make defenses play more honestly against Coach's primary spread action of the first and second cutter actions. Illinois is moving the ball well and is well versed in taking a three when a good opportunity presents itself. I am pleased with the shot selection so far. On the personnel side, not a lot of dynamic drivers. This may be an unfair criticism of the team however since finding good to elite attackers is extremely difficult and/or takes time. On defense we all know Illinois needs to do better, and that is foul less. Once again growth from Samba with his height and length will allow Illinois to rebound better defensively.

We are not even 1.5 seasons into the Coach Underwood era and I am greatly pleased with what I am seeing. The last regime had a conservative and inefficient defense, and their offense consisted of falling apart after one pick and roll didn't work. Coach Underwood has a diverse offensive system that will get better once player development and familiarity increases. The ball does not stick and there are always counters to what is happening on each and every possession. Coach's defense is the question of would you rather force turnovers or hope you can defend long enough and be fortunate enough to force a bad shot or go against a team that is a bad 3PT shooting team? Not every program can be Virginia. Coach Underwood's defensive is a direct compliment to his offensive system.

I understand it is very easy to get caught up in the micro-moments and be frustrated. But from a macro-perspective this is a program with a clear path to competitive sustainability and excellence.

Ok, long post over.
 
Wanted to post some statistical findings so far this season, please see below!

Offense:
- Free Throw Rate: (309/353) - 27.2% of all possessions end up at the charity stripe, one of lowest in D1. This is more indicative of personnel v system IMO. Coach's spread system stresses constant attacking of the rim, team will get better.

- 3PT Attempt Rate: (167/353) - Coach trusts analytics and understands shot distribution. Great sign for offensive attack that wants to be multi-dimensional and balanced.

- Assist Percentage: (102/353) - At 55.6% Illinois is in the upper-third of scores coming from assists. I expect even more improvement as season goes on due to system understanding. Coach does not want the ball to stick. Ranking also reflects a team oriented approach as opposed to favoring isolation moments for players.

Defense:
- Free Throw Rate: (5/353) - This goes without saying. Illinois fouls too much. This is a must fix.

- Total Rebound Percentage: (62/353) - Preseason rebounding concerns have been validated. The emergence of Samba Kane can do wonders for the rest of the season.

- Assist Percentage: (105/353) - A staple of Coach's defensive system where teams cannot get into their usual offensive rhythm against the Illini. A great sign that the pressure defense turns teams to play 1-1 instead of 5v5

- Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage: (97/353) - More proof that Coach's defensive system is effective. In the 83 percentile of team defenses in the category that accounts for the fact that a three-pointer is greater than a traditional field goal. Once again hammers home the thought that less fouling will only skyrocket defensive efficiency.

- Turn Over Percentage: (19/353) - Wouldn't be right to not include how often Illinois is turning over opponents. Absolutely elite in forcing turnovers and will always be this way with Coach.

Overall Takeaways:

On offense, Illinois is still working on attacking the rim. If Samba Kane can continue his growth than expect Illinois to draw more fouls. Furthermore, a real rim threat will make defenses play more honestly against Coach's primary spread action of the first and second cutter actions. Illinois is moving the ball well and is well versed in taking a three when a good opportunity presents itself. I am pleased with the shot selection so far. On the personnel side, not a lot of dynamic drivers. This may be an unfair criticism of the team however since finding good to elite attackers is extremely difficult and/or takes time. On defense we all know Illinois needs to do better, and that is foul less. Once again growth from Samba with his height and length will allow Illinois to rebound better defensively.

We are not even 1.5 seasons into the Coach Underwood era and I am greatly pleased with what I am seeing. The last regime had a conservative and inefficient defense, and their offense consisted of falling apart after one pick and roll didn't work. Coach Underwood has a diverse offensive system that will get better once player development and familiarity increases. The ball does not stick and there are always counters to what is happening on each and every possession. Coach's defense is the question of would you rather force turnovers or hope you can defend long enough and be fortunate enough to force a bad shot or go against a team that is a bad 3PT shooting team? Not every program can be Virginia. Coach Underwood's defensive is a direct compliment to his offensive system.

I understand it is very easy to get caught up in the micro-moments and be frustrated. But from a macro-perspective this is a program with a clear path to competitive sustainability and excellence.

Ok, long post over.
Thank you for this info. I was ecstatic when learning of BU’s defensive style and after the first few games this year began questioning it. Numbers don’t tell everything, but your post makes me feel good about a couple things.

1) Fouling is a major problem, but can be fixed. Both, by current players gaining experience in the system and with upgrades in length and athleticism in recruiting.

2) We are a 6’5 to 6’7 explosive wing (calling Tevian Jones) away from being a dangerous offense. Ayo and Trent can get by their guy, but struggle to finish at the rim in traffic. A player that can blow by their man and demands being fouled or it will be a posterizing dunk changes the dynamic of our offense.

My last observation, although subjective, is that we are way behind in overall athleticism on this team. I watch other high major programs and the level of athleticism is not comparable. Other than Kipper, Samba and Giorgi we don’t have anyone that consistently plays above the rim. I don’t just mean dunking either. I mean going high for blocks or pulling rebounds down from above the rim. Just seems we are a MVC team from an athleticism perspective. Others may not agree. Just what I am seeing as I watch teams on TV from across the country.
 
Washington State
Wanted to post some statistical findings so far this season, please see below!

Offense:
- Free Throw Rate: (309/353) - 27.2% of all possessions end up at the charity stripe, one of lowest in D1. This is more indicative of personnel v system IMO. Coach's spread system stresses constant attacking of the rim, team will get better.

- 3PT Attempt Rate: (167/353) - Coach trusts analytics and understands shot distribution. Great sign for offensive attack that wants to be multi-dimensional and balanced.

- Assist Percentage: (102/353) - At 55.6% Illinois is in the upper-third of scores coming from assists. I expect even more improvement as season goes on due to system understanding. Coach does not want the ball to stick. Ranking also reflects a team oriented approach as opposed to favoring isolation moments for players.

Defense:
- Free Throw Rate: (5/353) - This goes without saying. Illinois fouls too much. This is a must fix.

- Total Rebound Percentage: (62/353) - Preseason rebounding concerns have been validated. The emergence of Samba Kane can do wonders for the rest of the season.

- Assist Percentage: (105/353) - A staple of Coach's defensive system where teams cannot get into their usual offensive rhythm against the Illini. A great sign that the pressure defense turns teams to play 1-1 instead of 5v5

- Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage: (97/353) - More proof that Coach's defensive system is effective. In the 83 percentile of team defenses in the category that accounts for the fact that a three-pointer is greater than a traditional field goal. Once again hammers home the thought that less fouling will only skyrocket defensive efficiency.

- Turn Over Percentage: (19/353) - Wouldn't be right to not include how often Illinois is turning over opponents. Absolutely elite in forcing turnovers and will always be this way with Coach.

Overall Takeaways:

On offense, Illinois is still working on attacking the rim. If Samba Kane can continue his growth than expect Illinois to draw more fouls. Furthermore, a real rim threat will make defenses play more honestly against Coach's primary spread action of the first and second cutter actions. Illinois is moving the ball well and is well versed in taking a three when a good opportunity presents itself. I am pleased with the shot selection so far. On the personnel side, not a lot of dynamic drivers. This may be an unfair criticism of the team however since finding good to elite attackers is extremely difficult and/or takes time. On defense we all know Illinois needs to do better, and that is foul less. Once again growth from Samba with his height and length will allow Illinois to rebound better defensively.

We are not even 1.5 seasons into the Coach Underwood era and I am greatly pleased with what I am seeing. The last regime had a conservative and inefficient defense, and their offense consisted of falling apart after one pick and roll didn't work. Coach Underwood has a diverse offensive system that will get better once player development and familiarity increases. The ball does not stick and there are always counters to what is happening on each and every possession. Coach's defense is the question of would you rather force turnovers or hope you can defend long enough and be fortunate enough to force a bad shot or go against a team that is a bad 3PT shooting team? Not every program can be Virginia. Coach Underwood's defensive is a direct compliment to his offensive system.

I understand it is very easy to get caught up in the micro-moments and be frustrated. But from a macro-perspective this is a program with a clear path to competitive sustainability and excellence.

Ok, long post over.
Juiceman, your messages to likes ratio is sick. Keep up the good work!
 
- Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage: (97/353) - More proof that Coach's defensive system is effective. In the 83 percentile of team defenses in the category that accounts for the fact that a three-pointer is greater than a traditional field goal. Once again hammers home the thought that less fouling will only skyrocket defensive efficiency.
I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers. The ones I'm looking at are slightly different, but very similar for the most part. However, Kenpom has us at 221/353 for defensive effective field goal percentage. I know it's only one stat, but it is one of the more important defensive stats and it is bleak from over here. Do you know if the stat you're looking at is adjusted for opponents? That might be causing the big discrepancy.
 
Barttovik also has us at 221st for eFG% defense.

That sounds about right. Our eFG% will be higher (worse) than our defensive efficiency because of the focus on generating turnovers.
 
I gathered statistics from basketball reference.

Once I realized how affordable KenPom was I quickly subscribed.

I will be citing KenPom moving forward, but overlaps do occur in the numbers that still have me confident in my conclusion.

Apologies for not citing my references earlier!
 
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Uh, so I have taken a self imposed break from this and the Illinois games as I need to control my blood pressure. Anyway, what is up with De La Rosa? Somewhere I heard an oblique comment (I forget where I read it, or maybe heard it watching a replay of the UNLV game?) about him being injured and yet after reading through myriad posts here catching up I have not seen any reference to it, like what happened, how long will he be out, etc. Thanks in advance for any answers to my burning questions.
 
Juiceman, your messages to likes ratio is sick. Keep up the good work!
Thank you Tacomallini!

Using my time in-between jobs to go for my passion of basketball analysis with an emphasis on x's and o's and analytics.

As an Illinois alum I can't help but want to share findings I think everyone should see before coming to their own conclusion.
 
News flash: Giorgi is proving that this coach won't need a whole team of 5 star players to win. Give it time boys.
I hesitate to write this, but if starting the season 4-7, with 0 P6 wins and only one win being against a mid major is proving BU is capable of winning without 5 stars, we have a different definition of what constitutes real winning. I'm all for morale victories for now, but it gets old real quick, air balls and rim outs only get you so far, and they might help with advanced metrics, but the W-L is what matters, regardless.

Giorgi is probably the best "find" in this class. He's given us some extremely valuable minutes, playing well above his ranking as a freshman, it's highly impressive. But this isn't what I consider proving BU can win without a cast of mainly 4/5 star players. Short term, I judge BU for not retaining some more experience on this team, or having a better plan to get more highly sought after players , but that isn't exactly what I think Whitman (or BU (obviously)) had in mind for this team. I'm all in on our coach getting his guys, whether they be ranked 10th or 300th. I'm also all in on him getting 4 years to prove this (and more if it means we are truly trending upwards). By the time Giorgi et al are upperclassmen, then we can talk about BU proving he doesn't need 4/5 star kids, but right now it's painfully obvious this team doesn't have what it takes to win many P6 games. The multi million dollar question is, what is it? Whether it be knowledge of BU's system, pure experience/age, or talent, it wont be known for a few years, but I will remain skeptical the former two will out weigh the latter in the end.

Winning means having more W's than L's, that isn't the case, Giorgi's good play or not.
 
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