Illini Basketball 2019-2020

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I hav watched the NBA and there is a lot of isolation in the game or 2 on 2 and 3 guys watching and waiting for a kick. Of course. there's more but i'm not going to bore everybody here. And i certainly don't dispute the ball handling and shooting in the NBA is unmatched. But these guys are the best in the world! The college game is nowhere near the level the NBA game is skill wise for the vast majority of players. But this is a matter of preference. I would be more inclined to lay off the 3 pt. line, because shooting %;s will go down, which i think will do the opposite of what i think the rule change intends. Open up more space to the basket.
 
Does the new 3pt line open the game on the inside, or for the shooters? I can see how this rule change could actually increase the number of 3 pointers.

There should be about 10%-15% of additional floorspace within the 3pt line. I think this makes a zone defense more difficult to run. Do teams run less zone? If not, then we'll likely see more teams trying to shoot over it getting cleaner looks.

With man defense in mind, I think it will be more difficult for the perimeter defenders to help inside. So, do teams let the big men hold their own, help anyways and risk the open 3, or play more zone? Two of the three options result in more 3s the way I see it.
 
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I watched Euro bball when I was on vacation. These guys can shoot extremeky good. Was surprised how little bit of space they need to drain it. I'm concerned for the teams overly reliant on 3s. Going to see a drop in percentage make and less 3s.

I think Illinois will be ok as I see the team less reliant on 3s with Giorgi and Kofi plaing inside. Also see more feeds into the cutters.
 
I don’t know that players have taken 3s with their toes at the line as much as some seem to believe. Deep 3s are practiced by most teams daily because most teams have nba lines painted on their practice court. A couple years ago the rockets were profiled for practicing and taking deep 3s, and their percentages were good because the extra space allows for more time to release, and also catches the defense off guard because they think you won’t pull it. NBA players are obviously the best in the world, but most players practice deep 3s, and there are some analytics that support taking deep 3s because of the time and space you have to shoot.
 
I don’t know that players have taken 3s with their toes at the line as much as some seem to believe. Deep 3s are practiced by most teams daily because most teams have nba lines painted on their practice court. A couple years ago the rockets were profiled for practicing and taking deep 3s, and their percentages were good because the extra space allows for more time to release, and also catches the defense off guard because they think you won’t pull it. NBA players are obviously the best in the world, but most players practice deep 3s, and there are some analytics that support taking deep 3s because of the time and space you have to shoot.
This all makes sense, but now a “deep” 3 is even deeper, as defenses will play the line. I’m not convinced it will matter, but still. I tend to think most dudes will profile about the same.
 
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The new line was used in the NIT tourney. The %'s were 2-3 points lower than the average. That is obviously a limited example. I don't think this will open up the game as intended, but we shall see.
 
Somewhere I read that moving the line made a 2% difference. Not sure how accurate that is or how it was calculated but don't see the game signifantly changed as it will just change the practice point. We should have a strength down low next year with Giorgi, Kofi, and Kouma. That may do more to help our 3 pt % than anything else. Hoping for a huge difference with Alan getting open shots and improvement from Ayo and Tevian. We have huge upside potential but still potential not proven. If individual games show potential, excellent possibilities in Tevian, Kipper, and even Kouma (in HS game). Believe we also need coaching improvement with more pieces. Going to be hugely disappointed if we are not BIG competitive and favored in home games.
 
Somewhere I read that moving the line made a 2% difference.
A 2% difference still makes it a more efficient shot than a mid range, so it’s still worth taking. As long as it’s still an efficient shot worth taking, it will have to be guarded, which should open up the middle some more.

This where scouting comes into play though. Who do you need to full on deny at the line, who can you stunt and recover on to, and who can you completely help off of in the gap and risk them getting an open shot.
 
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Winged Warrior
It's been proven time and again, the teams that pass the ball best win. Our two best teams ever are Exhibit 1A and 2A. It doesn't matter where the line is if the fourth or fifth pass finds a wide open shooter/cutter that can convert.

Hell, move it to NBA distance.

That's what the kids are....ahem.....shooting for.
 
Was bored and spent a few minutes looking at D1 3 pt attempts per game averages from 1998 - 2018. Interestingly, the number of attempts per game was slowly rising linearly until 2008 when they last moved the line back. After that change, the number of attempts slightly dropped to 18 per game (per team), and surprisingly remained completely flat until 2015, when there was an abrupt increase.
 
My hypothesis is that the linear and gradual increase prior to 2008 was do to skill improvement, while the increase in 2015 was due to philosophy and style changes. If so, not sure moving the line back will change much.
 
This all makes sense, but now a “deep” 3 is even deeper, as defenses will play the line. I’m not convinced it will matter, but still. I tend to think most dudes will profile about the same.
Smart coaches will have their defenses play the player. Why defend the line if the guy can't hit from there?

You guard players how they deserve to be guarded. If a guy is capable of hitting from the longer distance, then you'd need to guard him at the longer distance even if he was 2 ft behind the line,
 
A 2% difference still makes it a more efficient shot than a mid range, so it’s still worth taking. As long as it’s still an efficient shot worth taking, it will have to be guarded, which should open up the middle some more.

This where scouting comes into play though. Who do you need to full on deny at the line, who can you stunt and recover on to, and who can you completely help off of in the gap and risk them getting an open shot.
The further move away from teams taking long 2's is a big part of why I think that space will be opened up on the inside as a result of this change.

The other thing is that I don't think there's a material difference in the way teams guard a guy who hits 33% of his threes as opposed to 35%. In the context of a single game, where that guy takes maybe three or four shots, that 2% difference is basically invisible. It may be the case that the 2% reduction isn't evenly distributed -- that is, bad shooters will be impacted more than good ones -- but I think that as a general rule, if you guard a guy at 19'9", you guard him at 22'2" as well.

The impact on the efficiency of three-point shooting should be dwarfed by the impact made by forcing defenders two feet further out. That's an extra step, which will completely change how defenses are able to rotate and help, and will put a huge additional premium on guys who can provide one-man rim protection services.

Underwood's offense has a lot of concepts aimed at exploiting space. Hopefully this becomes beneficial for us.
 
The further move away from teams taking long 2's is a big part of why I think that space will be opened up on the inside as a result of this change.

The other thing is that I don't think there's a material difference in the way teams guard a guy who hits 33% of his threes as opposed to 35%. In the context of a single game, where that guy takes maybe three or four shots, that 2% difference is basically invisible. It may be the case that the 2% reduction isn't evenly distributed -- that is, bad shooters will be impacted more than good ones -- but I think that as a general rule, if you guard a guy at 19'9", you guard him at 22'2" as well.

The impact on the efficiency of three-point shooting should be dwarfed by the impact made by forcing defenders two feet further out. That's an extra step, which will completely change how defenses are able to rotate and help, and will put a huge additional premium on guys who can provide one-man rim protection services.

Underwood's offense has a lot of concepts aimed at exploiting space. Hopefully this becomes beneficial for us.
Well said.
 
Food for thought...

College 3P% Avg: 34.29%
College 3P% Median: 34.20%
College 3P% Std Dev: 2.54%
College 3PA per Min: 0.56
College 3PA per FGA: 0.39

NBA 3P% Avg: 35.44%
NBA 3P% Median: 35.10%
NBA 3P% Std Dev: 1.44%
NBA 3PA per Min: 0.67
NBA 3PA per FGA: 0.36

Edit: Stats for 2018 seasons. The per min stat assumes no overtime; college = 3PA /40, NBA = 3PA / 48. I didn't bother to find the actual average minutes played per game.
 
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Winged Warrior
Food for thought...

College 3P% Avg: 34.29%
College 3P% Median: 34.20%
College 3P% Std Dev: 2.54%
College 3PA per Min: 0.56
College 3PA per FGA: 0.39

NBA 3P% Avg: 35.44%
NBA 3P% Median: 35.10%
NBA 3P% Std Dev: 1.44%
NBA 3PA per Min: 0.67
NBA 3PA per FGA: 0.36

Edit: Stats for 2018 seasons. The per min stat assumes no overtime; college = 3PA /40, NBA = 3PA / 48. I didn't bother to find the actual average minutes played per game.
 
The further move away from teams taking long 2's is a big part of why I think that space will be opened up on the inside as a result of this change.

The other thing is that I don't think there's a material difference in the way teams guard a guy who hits 33% of his threes as opposed to 35%. In the context of a single game, where that guy takes maybe three or four shots, that 2% difference is basically invisible. It may be the case that the 2% reduction isn't evenly distributed -- that is, bad shooters will be impacted more than good ones -- but I think that as a general rule, if you guard a guy at 19'9", you guard him at 22'2" as well.

The impact on the efficiency of three-point shooting should be dwarfed by the impact made by forcing defenders two feet further out. That's an extra step, which will completely change how defenses are able to rotate and help, and will put a huge additional premium on guys who can provide one-man rim protection services.

Underwood's offense has a lot of concepts aimed at exploiting space. Hopefully this becomes beneficial for us.
I’m actually really interested in how this impacts our defense. A pack line would get stretched and have more space to cover when they help in the gaps and close out. We’re already so far extended I wonder if it even makes a difference.
 
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I’m actually really interested in how this impacts our defense. A pack line would get stretched and have more space to cover when they help in the gaps and close out. We’re already so far extended I wonder if it even makes a difference.
Since we seem to pick up at half court - I don't see how this makes a difference to us at the ball. In theory, I guess our overly aggressive D that relies on alot of rotation and help side D could be one step further away from helping or one step further away from defending their offside man at the 3 point line. We were getting beat off the dribble A LOT last year when teams spread us out and took away some of the help.
 
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The impact on the efficiency of three-point shooting should be dwarfed by the impact made by forcing defenders two feet further out. That's an extra step, which will completely change how defenses are able to rotate and help, and will put a huge additional premium on guys who can provide one-man rim protection services.
You seem to be suggesting that offenses will be better because we move the 3pt out or am I missing something? If that were the case, wouldn't teams have figured that out already and just be doing that anyway.
 
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