You are factoring in the possession gain on offense but it doesn't appear that you are factoring in the opponent's loss of possession. For each turnover the opponent loses their average points/non-turnover possession (because points/possession already factors in the team's turnover rate and would artificially lower the points they miss out on when they do in fact turn it over) and we gain our average points/possession, no?The point the article is making is that EVEN IF Illinois were to get those extra 3.98 turnovers per game to be the best at forcing turnovers in the NCAA, it just isn't worth that much and it would likely come at the cost of introducing more defensive weaknesses elsewhere. The team that scored the most points per possession in the 2018-19 season was Gonzaga with 1.197 points per possession (https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/offensive-efficiency). 3.98 extra possessions * 1.197 is just 4.76 points per game. And that would be the absolute ceiling since it doesn't factor in that forcing those 3.98 turnovers and running your offense eats up game clock and therefore you aren't really increasing your total possessions per game by 3.98.
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