I continue to be less optimistic than a lot of posters here (surprise, we're biased!) I was giving this some more thought, and I think it comes down to 3 point shooting, and the ability to close out games.
3 Point Shot:
Last year, we had three "plus" shooters on the team (better than D1 average, approx 34.3%. When you look at tournament teams, that goes up, but not wildly so).
40.5% Trent
35.2% Ayo
41.5% AJ (graduated)
I believe the line is moving back this year, and is expected to knock off 2-3% from the averages. That could actually help us, if our relative strength is the front court.
Closing Out
Closing out games is subjective and intangible, but road games are hard to close out. We won at OSU, and although I believe technically it was neutral, Maryland at MSG should count. We stunk for a lot of the year, so it remains to be seen if a more experienced and talented edition of the team can run the offense for 40 minutes, with the will & skill to finish off opponents.
I expect we'll be significantly better, but without some orange-colored glasses, I see and up & down conference slate. I'll be happy with anything over .500.