Illini Basketball 2019-2020

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Only 5 times has a team had an RPI of 32 or better and missed the tournament.

1997 Texas Tech due to forfeits
2006 Missouri State, Hofstra
2007 Airforce
2008 Dayton

I know you said NET but RPI has the history and the ranking is what I presume to be relevant opposed to the metric itself.
With the insane parity this year, could certainly happen again.
 
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
Illini are #32 in first NCAA NET rankings of the year. Ohio St. #1, Maryland is #11, Penn. St #18, Michigan #21, MSU #29, Iowa #33 and Indiana #36. Surprised that DePaul is only 43.
Big Ten NET Rankings (thru 12/15/19)
1 Ohio St
11 Maryland
18 Penn St
21 Michigan
29 Michigan St
32 Illinois
33 Iowa
36 Indiana
44 Purdue
48 Minnesota
51 Wisconsin
61 Rutgers
153 Nebraska
174 Northwestern

Illinois currently sitting at #6 in the conference. I'm okay with that (for now).
 
Likes: foby
Loda, IL
Someone posted in the NBA draft thread that Kofi is not doing much better statistically than other top BIGs in the conference, but he seems like more of a load than any bigs we've faced on AZ or MI. 4 of 6 FotW awards is testimony enough.
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Was hoping to put up a thread on our tourney resume, but somehow I lost my thread posting privileges. Opps, not sure what I might have done. Anyway, without researching everything, I think we're in better shape than most posters have said. Our overall SOS is weak, but we don't have any terrible losses (Miami is obviously our worst, with a NET ranking of 89). AZ and MD are excellent near-certain tourney teams. Michigan gives us a top-25 win. Our NET ranking is a very respectable 32. We seem to be getting better, and I'm hopeful we can win a game or two on the road.

The thing I find most interesting, though, is what a wide open year this is. There isn't a dominant team in the entire country. If you use Kenpom stats, the top team(s) are typically +30 points better than an average D1 team. OSU is the top team currently, and it's weaker than any #1 in any year in the Kenpom era. For reference, our 2005 team was +32.68, and the North Carolina team that beat them for the national championship was +32.77. The top 10 this year start at +21.36 for Purdue up to OSU at +27.04. Should be the craziest year in a long time.
so your saying the 2019-20 NCAAM season will be like the 2007-08 NCAAF season? I will take it
 
I know it’s early, but as BU said previously there will be plenty of opportunities moving forward. As it stands there are 10 remaining Q1 games (of course that could change)View attachment 5350
Thanks for posting that!

I'd add that NET was pretty volatile early on last year and I'd expect it to be the same this time around. I think NET doesn't factor in any sort of pre-season predictions, where something like Pomeroy keeps preseason predictions in the model well into the conference season. The result is way more volatility from NET, though they do converge somewhat by the end of the year.
 
Thanks for posting that!

I'd add that NET was pretty volatile early on last year and I'd expect it to be the same this time around. I think NET doesn't factor in any sort of pre-season predictions, where something like Pomeroy keeps preseason predictions in the model well into the conference season. The result is way more volatility from NET, though they do converge somewhat by the end of the year.
Using advanced metrics with a relatively small sample size will of course lead to volatility as the sample size increases, and I’m expecting these to change as well. However, things are not likely to change enough that the Illini will lack opportunities for major resume boosting wins as the season progresses.
Side note is that I personally love looking at the progressions as the season goes on coming from an Econ background.
 
Likes: dbeverly26
Hopefully I hope they are mature enough to realize rankings while exciting and fun really mean diddly right now. I remember us beating Magic and MSU and being 16 or 17 and 0 and not even making the dance. Take one game at a time, play hard, smart avoid injuries and worry about rankings you have earned in March.
Yeah, Steve Lanter, our PG, blew out his knee and we had no reasonable back-up. The team couldn't hang without Lanter.
 
Using advanced metrics with a relatively small sample size will of course lead to volatility as the sample size increases, and I’m expecting these to change as well. However, things are not likely to change enough that the Illini will lack opportunities for major resume boosting wins as the season progresses.
Side note is that I personally love looking at the progressions as the season goes on coming from an Econ background.
Agreed, the B1G is definitely good this year and we'll have plenty of chances to pick up the wins we need, especially since we have a relatively unfriendly draw from the unbalanced schedule. If anything, I'm expecting our nonconference schedule to look worse when the dust settles.

I'd been shooting for 19-12, 9-11 as the target to get in but now I'm thinking we'll need to go 10-10 assuming we beat Mizzou. It's a bit uncomfortable, but splitting the first two conference games was pretty helpful.
 
Interesting article on the flaws of the quadrant system and a video about a better metric called wins above bubble. Illini are currently 0.2 wins below bubble. https://hoopvision.substack.com/p/the-quadrant-system-must-go
Thanks for the article. I like the idea of wins above/below bubble, I think that's a great way to present the ranking.

I don't think the quadrant system fits into the NET ranking the way its described in the article, though. I don't know with certainty, but I have the impression that the Quadrant System is for visualizing the teams strength of schedule to the committee (and pundits). I don't think the designation matters in the actual ranking.

So when the article states there is a bigger impact comparing games between the #30/#31 team than comparing the #1/#30 teams - I don't think that's true. Yes, the #31 team would be in the Q2 stack, but it would be at the top of the list, and the #30 team would be at the bottom of the Q1 stack. At this point you're trusting committee members to properly understand the proximity between those two teams.

Edit: thinking about it a little more I think the greater impact might be between the Q2 and Q3 because Q3 and Q4 losses are going to be summarized as "bad" losses. Best case for Illini is Miami moves up to Q2 which will be tough because that was a true home game.
 
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Likes: CHEEF
I like Hawkins long term but I don't see him being effective in the Big Ten until he really adds to that skinny frame.
I disagree. This guy has guard/wing skills and really drive the ball well, plus stretch the floor. I think he's underrated and will contribute right away.
 
They have done it Tess!
Wildwood
Holding any hope (need) on a twice suspended player (in consecutive years, no less) is not really a good omen.
Josh Gordon says hello (6x). I believe in second chances, but after 2 times you have to see if he values team over self.
 
Josh Gordon says hello (6x). I believe in second chances, but after 2 times you have to see if he values team over self.
At this point Im assuming he’s gone next year. It would be great if he plays himself into the rotation and stays, but I think odds are low.
 
Only 5 times has a team had an RPI of 32 or better and missed the tournament.

1997 Texas Tech due to forfeits
2006 Missouri State, Hofstra
2007 Airforce
2008 Dayton

I know you said NET but RPI has the history and the ranking is what I presume to be relevant opposed to the metric itself.
Well not to throw a wrench into things, but Illinois' RPI is 63.
 
I know it’s early, but as BU said previously there will be plenty of opportunities moving forward. As it stands there are 10 remaining Q1 games (of course that could change)View attachment 5350
This is great. As long as we take care of northwestern and Nebraska we just need to finish around 0.500 in conference play to have a really solid resume. I’m still hoping for 12 conference wins but let’s see how we handle Missouri before I get to excited.
 
Big Ten NET Rankings (thru 12/15/19)
1 Ohio St
11 Maryland
18 Penn St
21 Michigan
29 Michigan St
32 Illinois
33 Iowa
36 Indiana
44 Purdue
48 Minnesota
51 Wisconsin
61 Rutgers
153 Nebraska
174 Northwestern

Illinois currently sitting at #6 in the conference. I'm okay with that (for now).
I'd take it if you told me that's how the year would end up.
 
Likes: haasi
Waukegan
True, but only 15 minutes from your best player by far is going to set you back. I’m not for sure, but think he came into the game injured (edit: concussion from the Rutgers game)
What? Kofi is playing for Rutgers now?

Too soon?
 
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For what it’s worth, staff and Kofi had planned him being here two years to develop and test the NBA.
I still feel Kofi will use a second year to refine his post game, but I don’t think anyone expected he would be running the table as a B1G freshman like he’s been.
I scouted him a few times in H.S and you could see his power and athleticism, but man; his body wasn’t the same as it is now. He just plays longer stretches without looking as fatigued.
If he leaves after 1 year, kudos. He definitely worked his butt off to get there.
 
For what it’s worth, staff and Kofi had planned him being here two years to develop and test the NBA.
I still feel Kofi will use a second year to refine his post game, but I don’t think anyone expected he would be running the table as a B1G freshman like he’s been.
I scouted him a few times in H.S and you could see his power and athleticism, but man; his body wasn’t the same as it is now. He just plays longer stretches without looking as fatigued.
If he leaves after 1 year, kudos. He definitely worked his butt off to get there.
Maybe this is too much of the kool-aid but when I look at BIG rosters there aren’t any I want to trade. Sure there are specific players I would like to have but our only balance problem is depth at the 4 now. And Kipper playing like he is now compares ok to other teams depth and we have some potential on the bench. We don’t have the best player at any position (except maybe Kofi) but we have a skilled player at every position. Team has the potential to win the BIG imo.
 
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