Illini Basketball 2019-2020

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#26
If Giorgi were putting up 15 points and 8 rebounds, you live with those passes. I'm sure Jokic for the Nuggets has a lot of TOs and bad passes, but you live with those because he puts up other big numbers plus you get those awesome passes that he does complete.

Giorgi has a few sweet passes in a game, and some bone-headed ones that are off the mark, but just doesn't do enough extra (or even really enough really good passes) that makes you overlook those bad passes. IMO.
Right now if you bench Giorgi you're putting Kipper or Tevian on the floor in his place.

Regarding Tevian: I know this board is high on Tevian's potential but if you take away last years Maryland game he hasn't shown much. In Italy he was out played and in the minutes he's gotten since coming back from his suspension he's making a lot of mistakes.

Regarding Kipper: Giorgi's a better 3 point threat and better in the paint. The numbers back this up. Kipper's got some great athleticism but it so often comes with terrible terrible luck? mental lapses? idk what it is but Kipper's not better than Giorgi right now.

The only other option is to run a shorter lineup that consists of Trent(6-2), Ayo(6-5), Williams(6-3), and Griffin(6-6) but as soon as you sub in Feliz(6-0) for Ayo or Griffin that lineup gets way too short. So until Tevian or Kipper improve, Giorgi's going to be seeing minutes at the 4 (and by the time they improve Giorgi will have hopefully improved as well).
 
#27
Right now if you bench Giorgi you're putting Kipper or Tevian on the floor in his place.

Regarding Tevian: I know this board is high on Tevian's potential but if you take away last years Maryland game he hasn't shown much. In Italy he was out played and in the minutes he's gotten since coming back from his suspension he's making a lot of mistakes.

Regarding Kipper: Giorgi's a better 3 point threat and better in the paint. The numbers back this up. Kipper's got some great athleticism but it so often comes with terrible terrible luck? mental lapses? idk what it is but Kipper's not better than Giorgi right now.

The only other option is to run a shorter lineup that consists of Trent(6-2), Ayo(6-5), Williams(6-3), and Griffin(6-6) but as soon as you sub in Feliz(6-0) for Ayo or Griffin that lineup gets way too short. So until Tevian or Kipper improve, Giorgi's going to be seeing minutes at the 4 (and by the time they improve Giorgi will have hopefully improved as well).
We are on the same page here. Giorgi is going to play the 4. Not that he is good there, but our options are limited. I do think it'd be nice to limit Giorgi's and Kofi's minutes together and get Giorgi more time at the 5. All the talk of Giorgi being the only one to get Kofi the ball MAY be true, but it could be the position and plays that put him in the right spot to deliver the ball to Kofi most frequently.

All that said, and I think BU is going to do what he wants and he is paid a whole lot of money to make those decisions.
 
#28
Do not see Kipper over Giorgi as even close. There is a reason for our positive rebounding and it starts with two bigs.
Agree with the rest of the post, however one could argue that Kipper at 14 mpg vs Giorgi at 25 minutes at game (how many down low on the block). The numbers are not that far off with exception 3 pt and rebounding differences. Location on floor, total minutes played..etc. all factor in.

I am sure none of us really want Giorgi shooting 3's, and our overall guards are rebounding at a clip Andre/Alan/Williams/Ayo are all very close to Giorgi average rebounding. 5.2 to 4.9-4.4-4.3-4.1 for our guards.

Not sure Kipper couldn't get there as well if he were playing the 4 opposite of Kofi. Giorgi for all his passing may help us more being off the bench and primarily a 4/5 vs more of just a 4 passing to the 5?

None of this is meant to disparage Giorgi in anyway, love the kid, nor endorse Kipper as he is aggravating more often than not...but the argument can be made.
 
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#29
I am sure none of us really want Giorgi shooting 3's, and our overall guards are rebounding at a clip Andre/Alan/Williams/Ayo are all very close to Giorgi average rebounding. 5.2 to 4.9-4.4-4.3-4.1 for our guards.
I may be in the minority but when Kofi and Griffin are on the floor with Giorgi and the opponent gives Giorgi a wide open look I absolutely want Giorgi to take that shot. Giorgi is shooting at 30.7% so that would be an expected 0.921 points per shot which is lower than our average team efficiency of 1.031 points per possession. However, when you factor in that Kofi is averaging 56 Offensive Rebounds per 40 minutes and Alan Griffin is averaging 27, that has to be worth another 0.1-0.3 points per Giorgi 3 point attempt.

Reports indicate that Giorgi is hitting the 3s in practice and warmups so it's also possible that with more in game attempts his percentage could increase to ~34.3% which would make a Giorgi 3 just as good as Illinois' average points per possession. As long as his shooting percentage doesn't slip below 28% (0.84 points per shot) I say, look for an open pass underneath or the extra pass to Trent/Griffin and if it's not there take the wide open 3 that they're daring you to shoot.
 
#30
Giorgi, and Feliz are the only players consistently willing to make an interior pass right now. I think that complicates the idea some of you have with regard to GBs minutes.
You think Kofi averages 15 ppg because only two people pass to him primarily? The entire team passes into the post and that's clearly a focus on the offense. If anything, Kofi struggles passing out of the post when he meets a double team.
 
#31
You think Kofi averages 15 ppg because only two people pass to him primarily? The entire team passes into the post and that's clearly a focus on the offense. If anything, Kofi struggles passing out of the post when he meets a double team.
I think Kofi is averaging 15 ppg because of his rebounding, NOT because the other 4 are racking up assists getting him the ball.....
 
#32
Agree with the rest of the post, however one could argue that Kipper at 14 mpg vs Giorgi at 25 minutes at game (how many down low on the block). The numbers are not that far off with exception 3 pt and rebounding differences. Location on floor, total minutes played..etc. all factor in.

I am sure none of us really want Giorgi shooting 3's, and our overall guards are rebounding at a clip Andre/Alan/Williams/Ayo are all very close to Giorgi average rebounding. 5.2 to 4.9-4.4-4.3-4.1 for our guards.

Not sure Kipper couldn't get there as well if he were playing the 4 opposite of Kofi. Giorgi for all his passing may help us more being off the bench and primarily a 4/5 vs more of just a 4 passing to the 5?

None of this is meant to disparage Giorgi in anyway, love the kid, nor endorse Kipper as he is aggravating more often than not...but the argument can be made.
Kipper has not improved since his first year. People say they hope that good Kipper would show up. With the exception of the Michigan State game he excelled in he has been very mediocre
 
#33
Kipper has not improved since his first year. People say they hope that good Kipper would show up. With the exception of the Michigan State game he excelled in he has been very mediocre
Ehh...kind of. He had a really good Sophomore year (even if slightly up and down and enigmatic!) after a short freshman campaign. To see a guy average double digits as a sophomore go down to barely scoring a basket a game is crazy though!
 
#34
Kipper has not improved since his first year. People say they hope that good Kipper would show up. With the exception of the Michigan State game he excelled in he has been very mediocre
Fair enough opinion, but the stats don't lie, and if he gets 25 (not saying he should) minutes what does his stat line possibly say then?
 
#36
Fair enough opinion, but the stats don't lie, and if he gets 25 (not saying he should) minutes what does his stat line possibly say then?
He has had plenty of chances to show he deserves more minutes
 
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#38
I assume as the blood bath that is the B1G continues, it'll dwindle some teams chances of making it. 9/10 B1G teams making it seems like a pipe dream, but then again if there is a huge clump of seemingly equal teams we might squeak that many in there.

Side note--which conference has sent the most teams to a single NCAA tournament (including play in games) ever? I'd assume the ACC has sent 10 at least once.
 
#39
Side note--which conference has sent the most teams to a single NCAA tournament (including play in games) ever? I'd assume the ACC has sent 10 at least once.
Big East sent 11 in 2011 that's insane. We wont get there, but getting to 10 would be awesome for the conference.
 
#41
Something I dont think gets mentioned enough is how willing BU was to alter his defensive strategy. It's great that it's been working well for the most part, and you can chalk a lot up to the players, but quitting the intense pressure and first pass denial for a more packed line look seems to have done wonders, and thats a big shift in philosophy. He ran essentially the same defense for his entire HC career (admittedly im not sure how OSU focused on the previously mentioned points, im assuming they did though given the defensive ranking his year there).

If we had more consistent 3 pt shooters, this team would be as well rounded as any out there. I will ding BU for not trying to throw a better half court offense out there than the spread, it's boring to watch most of the time and seems to facilitate lazy offense by off ball players.

My point is that it's refreshing to see a coach change up his style mid tenure. I don't recall that happening frequently (if ever) with Weber or Groce.
 
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#42

This is such a creative prop. We're currently tied with Rutgers with third-best odds to win the NIT after North Carolina and "Field". Given that the bet balances NCAA tourney selection chances/strength relative to NIT field, those odds could plummet in either a good or bad way going forward.
AKA if you're planning to bet on Illinois to win the NIT you're probably better off waiting until after we play Wisconsin and taking the new odds.
 
#43
Bonnaroo Land
I think Kofi is averaging 15 ppg because of his rebounding, NOT because the other 4 are racking up assists getting him the ball.....
I don't believe it is one or the other exclusive. No player is an island, even if they are built like one.
 
#45
Something I dont think gets mentioned enough is how willing BU was to alter his defensive strategy... ...My point is that it's refreshing to see a coach change up his style mid tenure. I don't recall that happening frequently (if ever) with Weber or Groce.
Totally agree especially with regard to Weber. His stubbornness was off the charts and childlike.

I’m really impressed with the work Underwood has done to balance winning now and winning his way to foster and grow the style he wants.

Personally, I think he’s still a tweak or two in the lineup away from maximizing this teams potential.

After watching this season unfold I’m really looking forward to curbello being in the fold and if Miller replaces Ayo with upgraded shooting even better.
 
#46
Totally agree especially with regard to Weber. His stubbornness was off the charts and childlike.

I’m really impressed with the work Underwood has done to balance winning now and winning his way to foster and grow the style he wants.

Personally, I think he’s still a tweak or two in the lineup away from maximizing this teams potential.

After watching this season unfold I’m really looking forward to curbello being in the fold and if Miller replaces Ayo with upgraded shooting even better.
As far as tweaks/adjustments, etc., it still baffles me why they haven't put in a pick and roll with Ayo/Kofi.

Kofi is mobile enough and has good enough hands I think to be a really effective finisher at the rim.

Ayo of course is great finishing at the rim but is also effective from 15-18 ft when left open.

But we get Ayo and Kofi going downhill, who is going to stop that? Defenses wouldn't know what to do.

And we should get wide open 3's as a result of it. Which should make our 3 point shooters more effective.

Think it would be simple to install and would create a lot of problems. Much more than the weave at the top of the key. Just MHO.
 
#47
Think it would be simple to install
It's P5 Basketball, nothing is easy to install and make work, except for us arm chair coaches. Wait till I tell you my next recruiting class, Top 3 player nationally, easy to get....:gossip:
 
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#48
Springfield
KenPom, etc. I wonder if anyone ever looks at what they predicted before the season and halfway through the season to see how close they actually were?
 
#49
If we call the non-con play warmups and focus in just on conference play Illinois is looking pretty dang good this season.

Using current Kenpom Ranks
--------------------------------
@ #7 (MD) lost by 1
Vs #19 (UM) won by 9
@ #3 (MSU) lost by 20
Vs #20 (Pur) won by 26
@ #24 (Wis) won by 1

It's not hard to put on some lightly orange tinted shades and go back to the narrative of MSU being a national title contender and thinking that maybe a road game against top talent right after the holidays was never going to be a good opportunity for a win anyway so it's better that we lost to one of the best teams in the country, even if it was a blowout.

Our remaining schedule per Kenpom is
-------------------------------------------
Vs #34 (RU) - Note 1
Vs #101 (NU) - Note 3
@ #20 (Pur) - Note 2 (also already won by 26)
@ #19 (MU) - Note 2 (also already won by 9)
Vs #37 (MN) - Note 1
@ #22 (IA) - Note 2
Vs #7 (MD) - Note 4
Vs #3 (MSU) - Note 4
@ #34 (RU) - Note 2
@ #27 (PS) - Note 2
Vs #140 (Neb) - Note 1 & 3
@ #101 (NU) - Note 2 & 3
Vs #43 (IN) - Note 1
@ #4 (OH) -
Vs #22 (IA) - Note 1 (&4?)

Note 1: we beat the #19 and #20 @ home already
Note 2: we beat #24 on the road and almost closed @ #7
Note 3: 1 of 3 of our easiest remaining games
Note 4: revenge matchup?

By the numbers, 12 of our remaining 15 games should be "easier" than games we've already won. We also haven't dropped any games (in conference play) that are "easier" than each of those 12 matchups yet. We probably wont finish 15-5 but if we've really developed since Arizona, learned not to come out flat since Miami, figured out how to close since Maryland, and gotten a tougher mindset since Missouri it's a possibility. At the very least I see 3 wins and 9 coin flips remaining. Say the coin is against us and we only win 4 of 9 that would have us finish 10-10. If we put Rutgers away I don't think 11+ conference wins is out of the question.
 
#50
As far as tweaks/adjustments, etc., it still baffles me why they haven't put in a pick and roll with Ayo/Kofi.

Kofi is mobile enough and has good enough hands I think to be a really effective finisher at the rim.

Ayo of course is great finishing at the rim but is also effective from 15-18 ft when left open.

But we get Ayo and Kofi going downhill, who is going to stop that? Defenses wouldn't know what to do.

And we should get wide open 3's as a result of it. Which should make our 3 point shooters more effective.

Think it would be simple to install and would create a lot of problems. Much more than the weave at the top of the key. Just MHO.
Watching the game last night, I feel like we actually saw a lot of this. 3 lobs to Kofi led to two dunks and a foul, and on the one where I recall them taking the Kofi option away, Ayo found Griffin (I think) in the corner for a 3.

There was one point in the broadcast where it picked up the Wisconsin players talking about how to defend this and they seemed a bit confused by it. Wonder if it's something they hadn't seen on film, so they weren't ready for it.
 
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