Illini Basketball 2019-2020

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Cary, IL
That's a great point. Most of my perspective on this come from last year because I followed very closely, and I was one of the people who thought the Illini had a chance much later than most simply because the teams ahead of them in the rankings and on the bubble weren't very good themselves. I can appreciate that aspect.

Something to keep in mind is that Q3/4 losses don't really matter to teams in the top 30 besides seeding impact. Only 1 team EVER ranked in the top 30 has not made the tournament; 2006 Missouri State (also Texas Tech but they were under post-season ban). History indicates that if a team is in the top 30 they're safe, and off the bubble. By virtue of being ranked that high the summary of the season is enough to overcome those Q3/4 losses. Illini aren't there yet, and if they continue losing to teams like NW it becomes less likely they will get there considering a NW loss at home will probably drop them 10-15 spots to the mid 50s in NET.

Personally, I have it categorized like this for following and keeping tabs:
Safe, 100% teams make it: Top 30
Likely, 90-95% teams make it: Top 45
Bubble, 20-30% teams make it, Top 45 - 70

Regarding the bubble teams last year 7 teams made it ranked lower than 45 in NET, but 5 of those teams had an RPI better than 45. Only 2 teams had both an RPI and NET worse than 45.

So to address the great point you made I think as a team becomes higher ranked the less impact the Q3/4 losses have on making the tournament. So, as long as Illini stay in that bubble territory Q3/4 losses tend to be large influencing factor, it appears.
So, to summarize, don't lose to NW or Nebby and have a winning conference record. Right?
 
Decided to answer my own question; 30 Creighton, no bad losses, best wins, Tx Tech & Marq (both rated behind them). 31 Purdue lost to Marq (35), UI (36) Tx (53), Nebby (167) there 1 big win, MSU, nothing else of note. 32 Texas Tech, lost at DePaul (63), but no wins of any note. 33 BYU, lost to Boise St (119) and Utah (68). Best win V Tech. Coincidentally, 34 V Tech, lost to BYU and Virginia on road (66), big win over MSU. 35 Marquette, lost to WI (25), Creighton (30), Providence at home (86), beat Nova (20) at home. 36 U of I, I think you know. 37 UNI, lost at Illinois State (207) on road, no major wins. 38 Kentucky, lost to Utah (68) and SC (112) on road and EVANSVILLE (245) at HOME (sorry, in case anyone forgot) :), but they did beat MSU, only major win. 39 Akron, no losses to teams rated below, no major wins.

Strange, MSU is the signature win for 3 of these teams. Hopefully, we can give them a fourth loss in this group.
Illini look great right now, but a NW loss would make them 0-2 Q3, and the highest rated team with 2 Q3 losses right now is Cincinatti @ #64. There season certainly wouldn't be over, but I think it really negates what they've done over the last couple weeks from a numbers perspective. The bubble watch this year looks to be pretty interesting.

https://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty
 
So, to summarize, don't lose to NW or Nebby and have a winning conference record. Right?
Definitely, do that and they'll be totally safe. I think don't lose to Nebby or NW, and 8-12 in conference they'd still have an outside chance.

Edit: Complicating it would be the 20 win metric... not sure how much matters, but if Illini go 8-12 they won't be close to 20 wins.
 
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Cary, IL
Illini look great right now, but a NW loss would make them 0-2 Q3, and the highest rated team with 2 Q3 losses right now is Cincinatti @ #64. There season certainly wouldn't be over, but I think it really negates what they've done over the last couple weeks from a numbers perspective. The bubble watch this year looks to be pretty interesting.

https://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty
Other benefit of playing in the B1G, UI has beaten 4 teams rated higher than them, have 8 more games against teams rated higher and 3 more against teams in top 50. A lot of good opportunity, if they can keep bringing it, as they have.

Also, Cincinnati does not have any wins that compare to our conference wins.
 
Other benefit of playing in the B1G, UI has beaten 4 teams rated higher than them, have 8 more games against teams rated higher and 3 more against teams in top 50. A lot of good opportunity, if they can keep bringing it, as they have.

Also, Cincinnati does not have any wins that compare to our conference wins.
Totally agree. Illini have so many opportunities for quality wins this year. They already have 3 and if Purdue moves up 1 spot they'll have a 4th.
 
not sure where to ask this question, but does anybody here have a favorite Big 10 basketball podcast, preferably one that focuses on Illinois that they could recommend to me? Been searching but haven't found anything to promising.

thanks
Mike Latulip has recently started doing podcasts, called "The Full 94". He talks mainly NBA and Illini/BIG. The best part is he gives a link to whenever the conversation changes so you don't have to listen to everything if it doesn't interest you.

He recently interviewed Malcolm Hill and they had a good discussion about Groce. Latulip gave a juicy little nugget, saying Darius Paul was killing it in practice...to the point he thought he might leave early for the NBA. Not trying to derail the thread, but didn't know where to post and thought guys would enjoy.
 
Let me guess, Illini will have Akron, Kansas, and KSU in our bracket somehow.
Hope so, keep playing like we are and we're moving on to the 2d weekend of the tournament. Maybe we can get a matchup with Auburn next to get to the Elite 8.
 
Mike Latulip has recently started doing podcasts, called "The Full 94". He talks mainly NBA and Illini/BIG. The best part is he gives a link to whenever the conversation changes so you don't have to listen to everything if it doesn't interest you.

He recently interviewed Malcolm Hill and they had a good discussion about Groce. Latulip gave a juicy little nugget, saying Darius Paul was killing it in practice...to the point he thought he might leave early for the NBA. Not trying to derail the thread, but didn't know where to post and thought guys would enjoy.
Imagine Darius and Kofi together at the 4 and 5
 
Mike Latulip has recently started doing podcasts, called "The Full 94". He talks mainly NBA and Illini/BIG. The best part is he gives a link to whenever the conversation changes so you don't have to listen to everything if it doesn't interest you.

He recently interviewed Malcolm Hill and they had a good discussion about Groce. Latulip gave a juicy little nugget, saying Darius Paul was killing it in practice...to the point he thought he might leave early for the NBA. Not trying to derail the thread, but didn't know where to post and thought guys would enjoy.
This is perfect, already listened to the Hill podcast and thought it was great. Thanks.
 
saying Darius Paul was killing it in practice...
Too bad he couldn't have figured out how to be killing it with life in general, hope the kid has figured out some things and is doing well, basketball aside.
 
South Carolina
Thought I'd throw out a potential (and controversial) All Big 10 team with the season now 60% complete. It seems that I probably slighted Rutgers.

1st Team
F Garza - IOWA
F Oturo - MIN
F Tillman - MSU
G Winston - MSU
G Cowan - MD

2nd Team
F Wesson - OSU
F Stevens - PSU
F Cockburn - ILL
G Weiskamp - IOWA
G Dosunmu - ILL

Player of the year ---- Garza or Winston
 
Forgottonia
C. J Frederick of Iowa is the FOW and Garza is POW.
Is Fran up for COY yet? I never expected them to be this good. I’m actually not sure if they are, but they’ve been playing well esp considering their injuries.
 
Thought I'd throw out a potential (and controversial) All Big 10 team with the season now 60% complete. It seems that I probably slighted Rutgers.

1st Team
F Garza - IOWA
F Oturo - MIN
F Tillman - MSU
G Winston - MSU
G Cowan - MD

2nd Team
F Wesson - OSU
F Stevens - PSU
F Cockburn - ILL
G Weiskamp - IOWA
G Dosunmu - ILL

Player of the year ---- Garza or Winston
Jalen Smith has to be in there somewhere. Overall you did very well. A lot will depend on winning vs losing teams. Losing team players don't get the recognition.
 
Is Fran up for COY yet? I never expected them to be this good. I’m actually not sure if they are, but they’ve been playing well esp considering their injuries.
If we win at Michigan and then split the remaining games in the B10 Brad might be COY.
 
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