Illini Basketball 2020-2021

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Loren Tate just mentioned on the radio that Kofi was not invited.
I have enjoyed everyone's thoughts on whether to stay in the draft or return to college based on the likelihood of being able to play in college, the NBA, G League, Europe or where ever else. I think, ultimately, the ability to play (or workout to continue develop your game) in one of these spots next year will be the primary decision driver, because...

Just from a numbers standpoint, logically, if there are only 60 (maybe 70) out of the list of 105 US players invited, plus the 42 international players, that puts the total at 102, minimum. There are 30 NBA teams and 2 draft rounds, so that would suggest your odds of being drafted are 60/102 = 59%.

But, if you know you are not a first rounder, your odds are really 30/72 =42% for being drafted in the second round, or even lower at 30/82 = 37% if 70 people are invited out of the 105. Even lower if you figure that some teams draft kids that weren't even invited. Not good odds, imo. If it were me, I would need a really solid indication (can you get something that is in writing that is contractually binding to this effect? I doubt I'd do that if I were an NBA exec, but you never know unless you ask, right?) from one (preferably 2) of the teams to the effect that "hey kid, if you are still available when we draft in the second round, we will for sure draft you! No question!" Except that you may still go undrafted, and hear something like "Sorry kid, I know we told you we'd draft you, be we had no idea (insert name here) would still be available, and couldn't pass him up."

Only a few more days and we will know for sure.
 
Likes: BlueLeader
The list of 105 potential invitees included international players didn’t it? I thought I saw several players from overseas.
 
There’s definitely international players on the potential list. So are we looking at 105 potential plus 40 something additional international players, or are those 40 something international players already included?
 
Likes: Goode-for-3
I sure hope the staff has been given better info than the fans and media. What a cluster....

I'm not sure it matters much. Even as murky as all the stay or go issues are, I think the NCAA has an even bigger challenge in figuring out how to facilitate a season at all. You can't keep athletes in a "bubble" and expect them to attend classes. Maintaining the illusion of amateurism and the "student-athlete/student first" concept won't be easy under the current conditions. Something is going to have to be sacrificed. Either the level of instruction and expectations on the student, or their level of involvement in athletics will have to be significantly altered.

If there is basketball this season, it sure isn't likely to be pretty.
All I want for Christmas is a good vaccine, a good vaccine....
 
Springfield
Tough decision for Kofi with very little fact of future benefit from which to draw. So much is up in the air. Is it safer and better for him and his family if he plays in Europe, the G league, or Champaign? And which will give him the better opportunity to improve his game?

I don't expect him to return....but if he does...it will be Dos Equis!!

Another question we should be asking: Was Kofi ever interested in or committed to being a student?
 
Forgottonia
Some thing no one is talking about is whether athletes of any sport are at a higher risk than the student population in general. They most certainly will be monitored and tested at an extreme rate relative to others, so any positives will be quickly known. My understanding is at some high schools and many colleges, students will be present even if much of the instruction is online. Different situation at colleges of course, but the students will have contact with each other regardless. My guess is athlete cases are more likely to be found and treated quickly with an overall better outcome than the student population at large.
 
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
Even if athletes have access to better care and enjoy better outcomes, there are reports coming out this week that many who recover from COVID-19 are still exhibiting signs of longer-term heart damage. I won't pretend to know how everyone should navigate a complex and ever-evolving situation, but the discussion should include an understanding that contracting COVID-19 and recovering does not necessarily place you back in your original position. Risk of death is just one of many ways this pandemic may rear its ugly head in the future.
 
So the concerns about whether there will even be a college basketball season are valid and seem to be a major component in the uncertainty about whether Kofi returns.

But, seeing as Kofi is almost certainly not getting drafted, is there anything preventing him from coming back, waiting to see if Illinois basketball is cancelled, and at that point leaving campus and signing with a pro team overseas? Then he can enter the draft next year, with another year of either college or pro ball to develop his game and show the NBA scouts the progress they're looking for. What am I missing?
 
I am confident Kofi is not going to be drafted. So what does he really lose by withdrawing from the draft? If he stays in, he loses the chance to play college ball and his only option is non-NBA pro ball, which is still an option available to him if he withdraws from the draft.
 
I am confident Kofi is not going to be drafted. So what does he really lose by withdrawing from the draft? If he stays in, he loses the chance to play college ball and his only option is non-NBA pro ball, which is still an option available to him if he withdraws from the draft.
That's an interesting point. If he pulls out of the NBA draft, is he still able to opt for non-NBA pro ball?

I would assume so, but does anyone know for sure?
 
That's an interesting point. If he pulls out of the NBA draft, is he still able to opt for non-NBA pro ball?

I would assume so, but does anyone know for sure?
I don't know why he wouldn't be. Maybe not G league, but as far as I know the NCAA doesn't have agreements with foreign leagues, and any kid can drop out of school and get a job, right? Also, the draft isn't until October as of right now, so he could come back to school and wait it out until October and be in no worse a position to sign for a Euro team than he would be if he stayed in the draft and waited for that process to play out.
 
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I don't know why he wouldn't be. Maybe not G league, but as far as I know the NCAA doesn't have agreements with foreign leagues, and any kid can drop out of school and get a job, right? Also, the draft isn't until October as of right now, so he could come back to school and wait it out until October and be in no worse a position to sign for a Euro team than he would be if he stayed in the draft and waited for that process to play out.
If he is going to go the pro route regardless, it would make more sense for him to stay in the draft. If he goes undrafted, he can be a UDFA next year (or even this year), and choose the best situation for his development. If he doesn't declare for the draft he would not be eligible to sign with a NBA team later this year. He would also have to declare next year and be at the mercy of whatever team did pick him. It's still not an easy decision to return to Champaign, even if he won't be drafted. The question for him is still, "What is the best situation for my development?". The answer to which will likely be, wherever he can play in meaningful games against quality competition. I'm not sure NCAA can promise him much in that regard.

It really stinks for guys in his position. I'd love to see him back at U of I for my own personal enjoyment, but if he were my kid, I'm not sure what I would tell him to do.
 
Decision-making under conditions of uncertainty
What league has the been chances of playing basketball this season NCAA, G-League, or one of the European leagues?

Good point about how invested in school a person is. Having to attend class and study takes a lot of time which would otherwise be devoted to basketball.
 
Likes: KevinC
If he is going to go the pro route regardless, it would make more sense for him to stay in the draft. If he goes undrafted, he can be a UDFA next year (or even this year), and choose the best situation for his development. If he doesn't declare for the draft he would not be eligible to sign with a NBA team later this year. He would also have to declare next year and be at the mercy of whatever team did pick him. It's still not an easy decision to return to Champaign, even if he won't be drafted. The question for him is still, "What is the best situation for my development?". The answer to which will likely be, wherever he can play in meaningful games against quality competition. I'm not sure NCAA can promise him much in that regard.

It really stinks for guys in his position. I'd love to see him back at U of I for my own personal enjoyment, but if he were my kid, I'm not sure what I would tell him to do.
I agree that if he's 100% decided he's going pro that makes the most sense. I guess the scenario I'm envisioning is one in which he'd come back to college if not for the uncertainty regarding the college season. If he's decided he's going pro no matter what he should stay in the draft.
 
Decision-making under conditions of uncertainty
What league has the been chances of playing basketball this season NCAA, G-League, or one of the European leagues?

Good point about how invested in school a person is. Having to attend class and study takes a lot of time which would otherwise be devoted to basketball.
To complicate things it’s not just which league has best chances of playing but also practicing. If any of the pro leagues shutdown the players are largely on their own. Especially so for an undrafted first year player.

The NCAA route at least provides a year plus of security. The scholarships won’t be pulled, players will get their housing and stipend, and in January be able to earn NIL revenue, as well as medical, fitness, and training support.
 
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