mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
We would have a very very strong consensus if Lovie won 8 games (or more) or 2 games (or less).
Illini Football 2019
- Status
We would have a very very strong consensus if Lovie won 8 games (or more) or 2 games (or less).
Illini_1979
- Oregon
I was joking (just a little).
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Let's be real honest.
5 is the only number where there's a real debate, and that's also probably the modal outcome for the season. Hold onto your butts.
It is unfortunate that some some so-called Illini fans want Lovie fired. They wanted him fired after the first year or two. He is slowly but surely improving this team bringing it from a dumpster fire under sleazy, incompetent coach Beckman, who never should not have been hired based on his mediocre record in lower college football, etc... Beckman damaged this program so much that it is going to take more than 3 or 4 seasons to bring the program to respectability. Lovie is bringing this program back, but needs time.
Those fans will complain if Lovie wins 8 games this year and then 9 games next year. They will say he is not the coach that can take the team to victory in the BCS Championship. Lovie has a history of winning, just not a history of miracle work on the football field! The recruiting is better, the coaching is better, it takes time. Stop all the Lovie firing talk if you are a true Illini fan and support him so the school can go forward on to bowls and maybe, hopefully eventually ( not this year Lovie bashers) go to the BCS Big game. We could go out and hire a Beckman clone and dine on Lasagna. I do realize that that Beckman was not directly before Lovie but my statements still apply.
When exactly does the Beckman excuse expire? You said longer than 3-4 seasons, give me a break
7-5, to me, represents our luck turning. Either we win all three tossups or beat a good squad. Offensive line stays healthy, QB stays healthy and plays well, no cb injuries. If these three happen, i could Envision some upsets.
Agreed...that's what a lot of seasons define plus or minus on, this season and next are Lovies payoff, plus recruiting has picked up some ,we have the pipeline primed to go forward.
The end of the 2020 season is when it expires to answer your question. If Lovie is fired, then you have to start over with inferior players in this age of transfer portals many will leave. Did you really think Lovie was going to win many games in the first 2 seasons with Beckman recruits? Really? The entire offensive line are Lovie guys and Illinois may have the best line in the conference. Mostly Redshirt Sophomores. I am sure you will complain if Lovie wins the west this year or next and loses to Ohio State in the B1g Championship.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Excuses Expire = Current Year + 1
I think folks are hoping to see evidence to support this statement, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
2019 Season Prediction Time
Nonconference Results: 3-0
Akron 8/31: Never a doubt, we cruise to a 49-7 victory. W
@UConn 9/7: Being the first road game of the season, a little hairy in the first half, but the Illini pull away in the second 34-17. W
Eastern Michigan 9/14: A well played football game by both teams and we prevail 31-20. W
B1G Ten Results: 5-4
Nebraska 9/21: The Nebby hype train hits a bit of a hiccup and the Illini have their first win over a ranked team since 2011*. It is an absolute shoot out 59-53. The question still lingers if Lovie's D can stop college offenses. W
* I thought Minnesota was ranked when we won in 2014 but everything I've found says they were not.
@Minnesota 10/5: The off week could not have come at a better time to prep for The Row-the-Boat Bowl. Lovie spent most of the time looking in the mirror stoically to counter Fleck's general Fleckiness. With the beard trimmed and looking sharp the defense matches the crispness of their coach. Not the beat down we were hoping for but the win we deserve, 24-10. W
Michigan 10/12: The Illini are ranked for the first time since 2011. Coincidentally they're also in their first Top 25 match up since 2011. More or less the Illini are attempting to exercise the demons of 2011. This game, to some, has been the most anticipated game since future schedules were announced. It will live up to the hype under the lights. Memorial Stadium will be packed and the crowd quite rancorous due to a few reasons:
A. Muck Fichigan
B. Copious amounts of alcohol since 7am
C. Continued copious amounts of stadium beers
Late in the 4th quarter the Illini down by 4, Brandon Peters with a strike to Casey Washington for the game winning touchdown. Michigan gets a chance but throws an interception as time expires. Poetic Justice. Crowd storms the field. Peters is carried on shoulders. Lovie shows some emotion. I show some emotion. We all show some emotion. 27-24. W
Wisconsin 10/19: Yeah, big time hangover. Not just from the copious booze, but from that total ESPN Classic we played the week before. Wisconsin, bigly, 42-17. L
@Purdue 10/26: Sometimes when Purdue and Illinois play a competitive football game against each other, they're both horrible. Not this time however. Both teams from the B1G West have proven that they aren't cupcakes anymore. In another Big 12-esk shootout, with 1,100 combined yards, the Boilermakers take this one at home 49-42. L
Rutgers 11/2: Rutgers thank you for following our two game losing streak. We are so glad to see you. Order is restored in a pretty ho-hum not stress inducing contest. The Illini clinch their first winning regular season since *checks notes* 2007. 24-13. W
@Michigan State 11/9: Coming off a big win against Penn State and then conveniently having a bye afterwards spells trouble for our beloved. The Illini trail the whole game but make it interesting and hang around late into the 4th, but it isn't enough. 24-21. L
@Iowa 11/23: This game certainly does not live up to the infamous 63-0 shellacking. The Illini, coming off their latest bye week in likely a decade, storm out to their own 24-7 first half lead. Iowa slowly creeps back to make it 24-21 into the 4th. The Illini have a drive cut short at the 25 leaving it at 4th and 4. Lovie elects to take the field goal. A collective scream at the TV says, "GO FOR IT!" The field goal is made making the score 27-21. With plenty of time left on the clock Iowa chews as much as they can on their march to the goal line to take the lead, 28-27. With less than a minute left Illinois is not able to cross the 50 yard line and losses 28-27. The conversation is only about Lovie's clock management and situational awareness. L
Northwestern 11/30: Fritzy and the kitties make the trek down 57 to a surprisingly solid post Thanksgiving crowd. Those stadium beers have worked wonders all season. The product on the field has also seen significant improvement, which also helps. That improved Illini product brings The Land of Lincoln Trophy back to Champaign where is has a nice place to live in the Smith Center. 28-20. W
The Illini pull off an exciting 8-4 (5-4) campaign. They break the curse of 2011 by getting two wins(!) after opening 6-0. Lovie earns another 2 year extension, which only helps recruiting. The long awaited bid for a bowl game is clinched. Thoughts of the possibilities for the 2020 season are a bit overwhelming for most, but that's what happens when Illini Nation finally gets a chance to come out.
Hope you enjoyed the Kool-Aid. Go Illini.
Nonconference Results: 3-0
Akron 8/31: Never a doubt, we cruise to a 49-7 victory. W
@UConn 9/7: Being the first road game of the season, a little hairy in the first half, but the Illini pull away in the second 34-17. W
Eastern Michigan 9/14: A well played football game by both teams and we prevail 31-20. W
B1G Ten Results: 5-4
Nebraska 9/21: The Nebby hype train hits a bit of a hiccup and the Illini have their first win over a ranked team since 2011*. It is an absolute shoot out 59-53. The question still lingers if Lovie's D can stop college offenses. W
* I thought Minnesota was ranked when we won in 2014 but everything I've found says they were not.
@Minnesota 10/5: The off week could not have come at a better time to prep for The Row-the-Boat Bowl. Lovie spent most of the time looking in the mirror stoically to counter Fleck's general Fleckiness. With the beard trimmed and looking sharp the defense matches the crispness of their coach. Not the beat down we were hoping for but the win we deserve, 24-10. W
Michigan 10/12: The Illini are ranked for the first time since 2011. Coincidentally they're also in their first Top 25 match up since 2011. More or less the Illini are attempting to exercise the demons of 2011. This game, to some, has been the most anticipated game since future schedules were announced. It will live up to the hype under the lights. Memorial Stadium will be packed and the crowd quite rancorous due to a few reasons:
A. Muck Fichigan
B. Copious amounts of alcohol since 7am
C. Continued copious amounts of stadium beers
Late in the 4th quarter the Illini down by 4, Brandon Peters with a strike to Casey Washington for the game winning touchdown. Michigan gets a chance but throws an interception as time expires. Poetic Justice. Crowd storms the field. Peters is carried on shoulders. Lovie shows some emotion. I show some emotion. We all show some emotion. 27-24. W
Wisconsin 10/19: Yeah, big time hangover. Not just from the copious booze, but from that total ESPN Classic we played the week before. Wisconsin, bigly, 42-17. L
@Purdue 10/26: Sometimes when Purdue and Illinois play a competitive football game against each other, they're both horrible. Not this time however. Both teams from the B1G West have proven that they aren't cupcakes anymore. In another Big 12-esk shootout, with 1,100 combined yards, the Boilermakers take this one at home 49-42. L
Rutgers 11/2: Rutgers thank you for following our two game losing streak. We are so glad to see you. Order is restored in a pretty ho-hum not stress inducing contest. The Illini clinch their first winning regular season since *checks notes* 2007. 24-13. W
@Michigan State 11/9: Coming off a big win against Penn State and then conveniently having a bye afterwards spells trouble for our beloved. The Illini trail the whole game but make it interesting and hang around late into the 4th, but it isn't enough. 24-21. L
@Iowa 11/23: This game certainly does not live up to the infamous 63-0 shellacking. The Illini, coming off their latest bye week in likely a decade, storm out to their own 24-7 first half lead. Iowa slowly creeps back to make it 24-21 into the 4th. The Illini have a drive cut short at the 25 leaving it at 4th and 4. Lovie elects to take the field goal. A collective scream at the TV says, "GO FOR IT!" The field goal is made making the score 27-21. With plenty of time left on the clock Iowa chews as much as they can on their march to the goal line to take the lead, 28-27. With less than a minute left Illinois is not able to cross the 50 yard line and losses 28-27. The conversation is only about Lovie's clock management and situational awareness. L
Northwestern 11/30: Fritzy and the kitties make the trek down 57 to a surprisingly solid post Thanksgiving crowd. Those stadium beers have worked wonders all season. The product on the field has also seen significant improvement, which also helps. That improved Illini product brings The Land of Lincoln Trophy back to Champaign where is has a nice place to live in the Smith Center. 28-20. W
The Illini pull off an exciting 8-4 (5-4) campaign. They break the curse of 2011 by getting two wins(!) after opening 6-0. Lovie earns another 2 year extension, which only helps recruiting. The long awaited bid for a bowl game is clinched. Thoughts of the possibilities for the 2020 season are a bit overwhelming for most, but that's what happens when Illini Nation finally gets a chance to come out.
Hope you enjoyed the Kool-Aid. Go Illini.
I'm fine with wanting to give a coach time. I just thinking using the scapegoat coach from 5+ years ago to justify this year's results is pathetic.
This seems like the perfect post to kick off the 2019 Season Prediction thread. Dan, can you make it happen?
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
That is a LOT of Kool-Aid. I'll have what he's having.
Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
If a rebuild is required, the “previous coach sucked” excuse can be used up until each person thinks the rebuild is complete. (And If a rickety shack was built or a strong structure) Some think it’s year 3, some think it’s 4 while a small group would probably go all the way until year 5. (Where there is a large chance for ZERO of the prior coaches’ recruits)
What makes it tough for Lovie is the timing of his hiring. Usually in year 4 a coach would have seniors that he recruited. Lovie has juniors and (RS) sophomores making up large chunks of his 2 deep.
All that to say, the Beckman/Cubit excuse can be used on a sliding scale, with the departure of the last meaningful class recruited by the previous coach being the “FULL STOP” end to the excuse.
Last edited:
Where is one using it as a five year excuse? Please show me?
Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
I view this stage as recovering from Lovie's first initial coaching hires, dudes that didn't want to recruit.
DrewD007
- Woodridge, IL
The offense at "55ish" would actually be a step up. They were 70 in S&P+ offensive ratings last year.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
See, I would sidestep this whole thing, which is more of a moral/identity question than anything else (which is why it's so addictive to people).
The underlying question in all these discussions, the thing that is really being asked, is do you fire the coach and go get a new one. Centering that question on whether the coach "deserves" to be fired barks entirely up the wrong tree, IMO.
It's a much simpler inquiry than that. Considering all factors and using the best information available, is there a higher probability of future success with the current coach, or with a coaching search to find a new one?
Both parts of that probability question are fact-specific and tough to define, which is to say they leave ample room for argument and debate. But that should be the framework in which those debates take place.
I put a high probability of Lovie's success at the outset, which has then dipped with each season coming in way below expectations. The probability of finding success through a coaching search was fairly low in 2016, but if anything the new facilities and more stable roster situation have probably marginally improved that.
So putting rough numbers to it:
At Hiring - 80% chance Lovie succeeds, 30% chance coaching search result succeeds. Not like you'd fire a coach the day you hire them anyway, but regardless it's not a close call.
After 2016 - 60% chance Lovie succeeds, 30% chance coaching search result succeeds. Still not a close call, but disturbing portents were seen that first year.
After 2017 - 45% chance Lovie succeeds, 33% chance coaching search result succeeds. Total dumpster fire season, no pulse through year two, shovels in the ground on facility and roster turnover underway.
After 2018 - 33% chance Lovie succeeds, 33% chance coaching search result succeeds. A razor-sharp call. 12 million reasons to stick with Lovie (a buyout which, by the way, harms the chances for the search by diverting money elsewhere)
After 2019 - ??% chance Lovie succeeds, 35% chance coaching search result succeeds. If we're not good now, the chances are remote (even though not nonexistent!) than we ever will be, and the marketplace is the better play.
I like everything in here, but then at the end, you fail to define good, which is the ultimate purpose of the question. What constitutes a good season? To what extent do injuries play in this (if an ol gets injured game 1, it is difficult to see much success on the offensive side in the big schedule). Obviously part of that falls I Lovie for not having stop gaps. But also, some of his recruits failed. Would this offense looks different with a healthy Boyd? Or what happens if we lose two cbs? It’s hard to imagine success without sufficient cbs. We know we have some development and improvement happening in the roster, do we give Lovie another year? Etc... the issue is: at what point do we just start back over? The current recruiting class looks good to me. And next years roster is deeper, stronger, older, and more experienced. But at what point does a team that has been struggling to be relevant, give up on their coach?
35% feels high considering our history with attracting coaches here. I mean it felt like even with Lovie at the helm we had and continue to have a hard time filling the staff.
Guessing Lovie is at about 50% right now. I think the bar is low enough that a competitive 5-7 stays the course and that's depressing but what are you gonna do?
Guessing Lovie is at about 50% right now. I think the bar is low enough that a competitive 5-7 stays the course and that's depressing but what are you gonna do?
- Status