Illinois 81, Northwestern 76 POSTGAME

[Chukwuwumba]

These 2nd half woes have really been concerning to me. I saw some other people making some general comment on this topic in this thread so I thought I'd share some stats I pulled together.

Note that the info below excludes our 4 “cupcake” games as they skew numbers (even though we only went 3-1 in those games). Games excluded are: Evansville, Missouri Valley, Eastern Tennessee, and FAU.

So, excluding those we have played 25 games in which we are 8-17.

We had the lead at halftime in 13 of the 25 games (52%) but won only 32% of the games (8 of 25).

Looking at just second halves of games, we would be 5-19-1. The only games we haven’t lost the 2nd half are:

• The first NEB game (+1) - LOSS
• The first MIN game (+4) – this is surprisingly positive given bench play in a blowout - WIN
• Maryland (+15!!!) 0 WIN
• Rutgers (+3) – to force OT which we did win - WIN
• The 2nd OSU game (+4) - WIN
• And we tied Penn State in the 2nd half – LOSS

So, when winning the 2nd half, we are 4-1 (or 4-2 if you include the 2nd half tie vs PSU). Let’s include the PSU loss for arguments sake. That means we win at a 67% clip when we win the 2nd half. When we lose the 2nd half, we are 4-15 (21.1% win rate). That’s pretty drastic.

We’ve lost 8 games where we led at half.

In our 8 wins our average point differentials by half are:

• First Half: +4.63
• Second Half: +1.25

In our 17 losses our average point differentials by half are:

• First Half: -1.18
• Second Half: -10.12

That’s a pretty ugly story to tell. We RARELY win the 2nd half, even in games we win; and our point differential by half decreases on average across all games (wins and losses). We rarely get blown out in the first half.

In fact, the only 1st half we lost by double digits all year is the first Nebraska (-16). We’ve had SEVEN double digit 2nd half losses (-21 vs IAST, -14 @ UC vs OSU, -12 vs Miznoz, -39 vs Iowa!!!!, -10 vs Wisconsin the 1st time, -13 in the MIN loss, and -18 vs Purdue).

What does this all mean? I haven’t the slightest clue.

Is it conditioning (we are gassed in the 2nd half)? Is it X’s and O’s (we make bad halftime adjustments, or at least worse than the other team?). Is it bench depth/quality given our style of play (kind of a corollary to conditioning)? That's all for smarter posters than me to figure out.

Good research. Last couple of games I noticed a shorter bench in the 2nd half, especially after contributions from lots of players in the first half....was looking for more tev and Damonte last game in 2nd. But not sure if this is true or not??? Team seems to have trouble right around the 7 min mark. Again, could just be a coincidental. Maybe a longer bench would give some energy and different looks.

 

[PtownIllini8]

I’d have to still argue against that. We routinely play decent first halves and then get out-maneuvered/adjusted at the half.

The last two games BU himself said, “well I really liked how we played in the first half”.

What you said isn't an argument that we got out maneuvered/adjusted after the half. We just go outplayed after half. That happens. They made adjustments to our man D in the 2nd half, and then we adjusted and used the zone.

 

[PtownIllini8]

The point may be that relying on that many FTs is risky. Of course you can't control the other team's D and fouling, but that weave offense burning 10 secs of clock looks pretty ineffective. We don't seem to penetrate or back cut on any of that motion. I think we could have used the pinch post screen and lob at the basket many times last night against NU as Pardon didn't seem to be honoring that threat.

You're saying it's risky to attack the hoop and get to the FT line? When then I say let's play risky!

 

[Gorilla Gorilla]

I think the dribble weave is just to get the help defenders moving, so they have a harder time guarding the high pick and roll when Giorgi steps out to set the ball screen on the (usually) 3rd time through the weave. The opposing player who's job it is to tag the roll man might be out of position, either to help on the roll or to recover to a shooter. That's partly how we kept getting the 3 point shooter open when he replaced (or lifted) into the spot where the screen just happened, which the color commentator (Hummel?) pointed out.

Also, late in the game we showed the weave look, but just pivoted, threw back to the wing who just handed off, and got into the spread action. We threw the lob, which was open, but it was a bad pass and Feliz (I think) just had to catch it and dribble back out. So BU had a counter to the weave in his back pocket that he saved for late in the game, it was a good call, it worked, but the bad pass kept us from scoring.

This

 

[Bailey]

I think the dribble weave is just to get the help defenders moving, so they have a harder time guarding the high pick and roll when Giorgi steps out to set the ball screen on the (usually) 3rd time through the weave. The opposing player who's job it is to tag the roll man might be out of position, either to help on the roll or to recover to a shooter. That's partly how we kept getting the 3 point shooter open when he replaced (or lifted) into the spot where the screen just happened, which the color commentator (Hummel?) pointed out.

Also, late in the game we showed the weave look, but just pivoted, threw back to the wing who just handed off, and got into the spread action. We threw the lob, which was open, but it was a bad pass and Feliz (I think) just had to catch it and dribble back out. So BU had a counter to the weave in his back pocket that he saved for late in the game, it was a good call, it worked, but the bad pass kept us from scoring.

Bravo

 

[joed]

Not a very good game. AJ was in way too long, with Griffin, Jones not so much. Check pts, rebounds, defense of AJ with
pts, rebounds of Griffin and Jones. I will take these two every time over AJ, and they also gain experience.

Where is Samba???? This is the second game with no Samba.
Why does one put a 6' 7" against a 7' 3" Haarms (against Purdue)???
If he is not sick, put Samba in to gain experience. I hope Samba stays for next year, but I sure would not.

As I have said before, the offense and defense requires too much energy, it is not efficient. Second half leaves players tired,
short on shots, assuming they actually get open. And keep the center near the bucket on defense, not past the 3 pts line.
Haarms stayed underneath all the time with great effect.

If the coach is going to have Kofi at the 3pt line on defense, look out.
This team is not going to be much better next year if the offense and defense scheme does not improve.
"This is Howard Cosell speaking of Sports".

 

[Deleted member 29907]

You're saying it's risky to attack the hoop and get to the FT line? When then I say let's play risky!

Nope, its risky for us to rely on our FT shooting prowess...

 

[PtownIllini8]

Nope, its risky for us to rely on our FT shooting prowess...

Sorry, can't agree. Besides easy FTs, we foul guys out like Law and their other guard on Sunday.

 

[PtownIllini8]

Not a very good game. AJ was in way too long, with Griffin, Jones not so much. Check pts, rebounds, defense of AJ with
pts, rebounds of Griffin and Jones. I will take these two every time over AJ, and they also gain experience.

Where is Samba???? This is the second game with no Samba.
Why does one put a 6' 7" against a 7' 3" Haarms (against Purdue)???
If he is not sick, put Samba in to gain experience. I hope Samba stays for next year, but I sure would not.

As I have said before, the offense and defense requires too much energy, it is not efficient. Second half leaves players tired,
short on shots, assuming they actually get open. And keep the center near the bucket on defense, not past the 3 pts line.
Haarms stayed underneath all the time with great effect.

If the coach is going to have Kofi at the 3pt line on defense, look out.
This team is not going to be much better next year if the offense and defense scheme does not improve.
"This is Howard Cosell speaking of Sports".

keep on truckin
joe

I'll take Kofi against Haarms any day of the week. Kofi can play behind Haarms and say good luck. I'll take Kofi man on to Harms, 3 pt lime or anywhere else. Haarms just isn't that tough off the bounce and Kofi is no stiff, which you apparently believe.



AJ had 10 rebounds in 36 minutes, while the 2 freshmen had 2 in a combined 10 minutes, and that doesn't include AJ being a way better defender. I too think those freshmen will be good moving forward, but you can't sit a senior who does all the little thing to help you win. I remember Griff fumbling a dribble and giving NU a layup as a result. Defend, rebound and don't commit silly TOs.

If you think Kofi is some slow, unathletic blob, you should watch this video:

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Sorry, can't agree. Besides easy FTs, we foul guys out like Law and their other guard on Sunday.

You can disagree all you'd like but if we shoot our season average of 70% during that game - we lose. FT shooting is an act alone at the line with no defense - so there is no variable related to the other team and their defense - its all on the team and shooter.

 

[TxChief]

The dude is running away on just his back two legs?!?

You can disagree all you'd like but if we shoot our season average of 70% during that game - we lose. FT shooting is an act alone at the line with no defense - so there is no variable related to the other team and their defense - its all on the team and shooter.

Respectfully, Hard to judge. If they shoot less on FTs, they may have changed tactics during the game. That's why you can't blame a call during the game, unless it's on the last shot.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Respectfully, Hard to judge. If they shoot less on FTs, they may have changed tactics during the game. That's why you can't blame a call during the game, unless it's on the last shot.

Very true - lots of variables. For me, no points other than from the FT line in the last 7 minutes is a scary proposition for this team that probably doesn't work most times. Net is, we should win games like this by 15 but our D was the problem in the end.

 

[Beendownsince99]

Defense has been a let down the last month, besides a half at Purdue. But we weren't getting a lot of turnover s or at least a bunch of live ball to. Which hurts this team Underwood always preaches are d should set up are o. But just like in life there are many ways to win, so I'm happy with the win but do want another statement win before the tournament. So beat Indiana and get some good vibes back. Go Illini

 

[TxChief]

Very true - lots of variables. For me, no points other than from the FT line in the last 7 minutes is a scary proposition for this team that probably doesn't work most times. Net is, we should win games like this by 15 but our D was the problem in the end.

Lived through Don Nelson (Dallas Mavs coach) as a season ticket holder for number of years, who invented, and frustrated Shaq, with the original "Hack-a Shaq" (that was fun).
You're correct, but if the team is playing in a way to force fouls, or the other team thinks they have to commit them, then not necessary the fault of the good guys, especially if it's working. Sometimes, you have to take what they give you. Not sure I can justify that for the NW game, but a lot of that was true. NW was getting beaten off the dribble and fouling ours on the way to the rim.

 

[joed]

I'll take Kofi against Haarms any day of the week. Kofi can play behind Haarms and say good luck. I'll take Kofi man on to Harms, 3 pt lime or anywhere else. Haarms just isn't that tough off the bounce and Kofi is no stiff, which you apparently believe.

AJ had 10 rebounds in 36 minutes, while the 2 freshmen had 2 in a combined 10 minutes, and that doesn't include AJ being a way better defender. I too think those freshmen will be good moving forward, but you can't sit a senior who does all the little thing to help you win. I remember Griff fumbling a dribble and giving NU a layup as a result. Defend, rebound and don't commit silly TOs.

If you think Kofi is some slow, unathletic blob, you should watch this video:

I have already seen the video. Let's take an overall look. Haarms will eat Kofi for lunch next year for several reasons. 1st, Kofi will be out defending somewhere else besides the bucket, just as Giorgi is this year, (Coach BU's defense strategy). Secondly, Kofi is not that good of defender being a freshman, and will foul. Thirdly, Haarms has better moves and is some 4 inches taller according to my check.

Let's take a look at AJ. If you noticed, AJ had 10 rebounds and 3 pts in 36 minutes. How many of those rebounds became points by him/team mates? 44% shooting would result in approximately 8-12 points. But that is not the whole story.

Jones played 3 minutes with 2 pts, zero rebounds. Interpolation is 24 points, zero rebounds in 36 minutes. Rebounds will be greater than zero and points will probably be less than 24.

Griffin played 9 minutes with 4 pts, 2 rebounds. Interpolation is 16 points with 8 rebounds in 36 minutes. Points will probably be a little less than 16 points. Let's combine Jones and Griffin in place of AJ's. We would be talking some combined 18 - 20 points vs 3 points, 6 or more rebounds vs 10, greater athleticism, height. How many times did AJ allow his opponents past him on the dribble, lots. The fewest points he guarded got 9 points.

So AJ allowed at least 9 points vs only scoring 3 himself, 10 rebounds vs his man who got minimum of 2 rebounds, 3 or 6 rebounds, depending upon who he was guarding.

Lastly, the freshmen will get more real experience for next year, less parent anxiety, and tend to stay instead of bolting. We must make sure Samba stays as well as he could make 3 big men, rotating in and out to keep fresh.

 

[Ga65]

I have already seen the video. Let's take an overall look. Haarms will eat Kofi for lunch next year for several reasons. 1st, Kofi will be out defending somewhere else besides the bucket, just as Giorgi is this year, (Coach BU's defense strategy). Secondly, Kofi is not that good of defender being a freshman, and will foul. Thirdly, Haarms has better moves and is some 4 inches taller according to my check.

Let's take a look at AJ. If you noticed, AJ had 10 rebounds and 3 pts in 36 minutes. How many of those rebounds became points by him/team mates? 44% shooting would result in approximately 8-12 points. But that is not the whole story.

Jones played 3 minutes with 2 pts, zero rebounds. Interpolation is 24 points, zero rebounds in 36 minutes. Rebounds will be greater than zero and points will probably be less than 24.

Griffin played 9 minutes with 4 pts, 2 rebounds. Interpolation is 16 points with 8 rebounds in 36 minutes. Points will probably be a little less than 16 points. Let's combine Jones and Griffin in place of AJ's. We would be talking some combined 18 - 20 points vs 3 points, 6 or more rebounds vs 10, greater athleticism, height. How many times did AJ allow his opponents past him on the dribble, lots. The fewest points he guarded got 9 points.

So AJ allowed at least 9 points vs only scoring 3 himself, 10 rebounds vs his man who got minimum of 2 rebounds, 3 or 6 rebounds, depending upon who he was guarding.

Lastly, the freshmen will get more real experience for next year, less parent anxiety, and tend to stay instead of bolting. We must make sure Samba stays as well as he could make 3 big men, rotating in and out to keep fresh.

Think you are underestimating AJ's defense as he was generally given the toughest assignment. Do believe Alan will be tough defender but don't expect him to have to guard the four. Hopefully that will be Giorgi primarily. Kofi will foul a lot but expect (hopefully) a different defensive strategy with him at center but maybe underestimating his speed. Expect much better rebounding with Kofi, Giorgi, and Alan together and that is our major weakness IMO. Will need Antwan or Samba to emerge as backups and will probably see small ball against smaller lineups.

 

[Deleted member 29907]

Lived through Don Nelson (Dallas Mavs coach) as a season ticket holder for number of years, who invented, and frustrated Shaq, with the original "Hack-a Shaq" (that was fun).
You're correct, but if the team is playing in a way to force fouls, or the other team thinks they have to commit them, then not necessary the fault of the good guys, especially if it's working. Sometimes, you have to take what they give you. Not sure I can justify that for the NW game, but a lot of that was true. NW was getting beaten off the dribble and fouling ours on the way to the rim.

Totally agree - you take what the other team is giving you. Honestly if I am NU - I'd rather foul us if I am getting beat rather than give up the semi-easy basket because we are known to be streaky at FTs. I'm not sure why they didn't zone more when the fouls piled up. Perhaps they kept thinking 'surely they can't keep shooting at an 88% clip" so let's foul them.