Pregame: Illinois at Iowa, Saturday, November 23rd, 11:00am CT, BTN

[Twangers]

Getting deep into the tape this morning. It's a very interesting team they have over there in Iowa City.

 

[pruman91]

After watching the idiots game against the goofers, I'll say that the idiots D is very strong against the run but has some weakness in the secondary ...the key is if we can provide enough time for BP to make his reads without getting happy feet...he has found Bhebhe after scrambling many times but over the whole game we cannot face many 3rd and longs to stay in the game on the road...crowd noise will be in play also...our D has to put pressure on Stanley and record some sacks to win the field position battle...

After the last 4 games i won't count the beloved out but it will take a solid effort on both sides of the ball with a continuation of takeaways by the Illini to keep the winning streak going...if we can somehow win this game then i see the Illini getting close to cracking some polls and bring enhanced recognition back our way...

Go Illini !!!!!!

fingers crossed.....

Illini 24
idiots 21

 

[Twangers]

After watching the idiots game against the goofers, I'll say that the idiots D is very strong against the run but has some weakness in the secondary ...the key is if we can provide enough time for BP to make his reads without getting happy feet...he has found Bhebhe after scrambling many times but over the whole game we cannot face many 3rd and longs to stay in the game on the road...crowd noise will be in play also...our D has to put pressure on Stanley and record some sacks to win the field position battle...

After the last 4 games i won't count the beloved out but it will take a solid effort on both sides of the ball with a continuation of takeaways by the Illini to keep the winning streak going...if we can somehow win this game then i see the Illini getting close to cracking some polls and bring enhanced recognition back our way...

Go Illini !!!!!!

fingers crossed.....

Illini 24
idiots 21

Bold: This is problematic.

 

[Subortus]

Maybe I remember it wrong. Looked back at summary and found no evidence.

Your memory is not faulty. The fake punt was last season during the 63-0 loss at home. I was sitting there miserable and cold, and I couldn't believe that Ferentz would stoop so low...

 

[1970 John]

Bold: This is problematic.

Well, it’s been consistent over the season. Is it more reasonable to think it will continue or not continue?

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

My head says their pass rush causes us fits, we get down early, fight back and can’t quite pull it off.

Illinois 17
Iowa 31

My heart says we play inspired after last year, Iowa has a hangover and some defensive touchdowns let us pull off the upset!

Illinois 28
Iowa 24

Just please don’t get blown out!

 

[Twangers]

Well, it’s been consistent over the season. Is it more reasonable to think it will continue or not continue?

Not.

When it comes to turnovers given, Iowa is a top 15 team in the country. Literally. And they're extremely stingy at home (4 turnovers in 6 home games).

 

[lstewart53x3]

Not.

When it comes to turnovers given, Iowa is a top 15 team in the country. Literally. And they're extremely stingy at home (4 turnovers in 6 home games).

We’re also one of the top teams in the nation at forcing turnovers.

I think it’s likely that we force 1, but not the 2-3 needed to win.

Ultimately, I think we get beat soundly.

Iowa 31-13.

 

[Twangers]

We’re also one of the top teams in the nation at forcing turnovers.

I think we actually are the #1 team in the nation in this category. And that's what makes this problematic. We need to turn the football over to win football games. If we can't turn it over 3 times a game (Our average during this 4 game win streak), how are we going to win?

The Iowa team I see on tape is beatable but not via our normal means of achieving victory.

 

[ILL_INI]

Getting deep into the tape this morning. It's a very interesting team they have over there in Iowa City.

Yeah, well, the rest of your post got cut off. You were saying they have a very interesting team.

 

[BrewHawk]

Yeah, well, the rest of your post got cut off. You were saying they have a very interesting team.

We're definitely interesting. Almost paradoxical with your typical Iowa team. Our WRs are actually very good this year. It's gotta be driving Ferentz nuts that we actually have to fling the ball around to be successful on offense. We aren't going to run over people ala Wisconsin. Goodson (true frosh RB) is really solid, but not big enough yet to be an every down back. Defense is steady, but hasn't generated much of a pass rush unless they know they can pin their ears back. I really think Minnesota made a big mistake by not trying to run it down our throats early.

I haven't seen much of your games this year, but if you guys have a stronger run game, that is what I would do. Keep the ball out of the Iowa offense's hands and you might just escape with a win. I think the Hawks are so close to being a really good (top ten) team. It all rests on Stanley's shoulders and we just don't know what we're going to get from him. Our special teams are strong, so not likely to be many opportunities there.

 

[JFGsCoffeeMug]

We're definitely interesting. Almost paradoxical with your typical Iowa team. Our WRs are actually very good this year. It's gotta be driving Ferentz nuts that we actually have to fling the ball around to be successful on offense. We aren't going to run over people ala Wisconsin. Goodson (true frosh RB) is really solid, but not big enough yet to be an every down back. Defense is steady, but hasn't generated much of a pass rush unless they know they can pin their ears back. I really think Minnesota made a big mistake by not trying to run it down our throats early.

I haven't seen much of your games this year, but if you guys have a stronger run game, that is what I would do. Keep the ball out of the Iowa offense's hands and you might just escape with a win. I think the Hawks are so close to being a really good (top ten) team. It all rests on Stanley's shoulders and we just don't know what we're going to get from him. Our special teams are strong, so not likely to be many opportunities there.

Welcome to our boards. Looking forward to an exciting (and injury-free) game!

 

[BZuppke]

My head says their pass rush causes us fits, we get down early, fight back and can’t quite pull it off.

Illinois 17
Iowa 31

My heart says we play inspired after last year, Iowa has a hangover and some defensive touchdowns let us pull off the upset!

Illinois 28
Iowa 24

Just please don’t get blown out!

Let’s just go with the heart then.

 

[BZuppke]

We're definitely interesting. Almost paradoxical with your typical Iowa team. Our WRs are actually very good this year. It's gotta be driving Ferentz nuts that we actually have to fling the ball around to be successful on offense. We aren't going to run over people ala Wisconsin. Goodson (true frosh RB) is really solid, but not big enough yet to be an every down back. Defense is steady, but hasn't generated much of a pass rush unless they know they can pin their ears back. I really think Minnesota made a big mistake by not trying to run it down our throats early.

I haven't seen much of your games this year, but if you guys have a stronger run game, that is what I would do. Keep the ball out of the Iowa offense's hands and you might just escape with a win. I think the Hawks are so close to being a really good (top ten) team. It all rests on Stanley's shoulders and we just don't know what we're going to get from him. Our special teams are strong, so not likely to be many opportunities there.

So I think you’re giving us misinformation/bad advice. We should do the opposite then. Unless you’re doing a double fake out on us. Then we should do what you suggest. Hmmm.

 

[illiniwil]

like any Iowa team, stop the run and force their QB to beat you. the Trubisky method. if we get them throwing the ball around
then we have a chance. otherwise they'll run it down our throats and run up the score...

 

[BrewHawk]

like any Iowa team, stop the run and force their QB to beat you. the Trubisky method. if we get them throwing the ball around
then we have a chance. otherwise they'll run it down our throats and run up the score...

I promise you we are very likely to throw it early. We can't just line it up and establish the run game anymore. I would bring early blitzes, but of course that is high risk/high reward.

 

[Illiniaaron]

I have a bad feeling about this one, as Ferentz teams don't do a lot of the stupid things that some opponents have blessed the Illini with in recent weeks. Illinois should be the fresher team coming off a bye with Iowa having played an emotional, hard-hitting rivalry game last week. But Illinois has not been very good coming off bye weeks in recent history. Would love to see the Illini blow their doors off but I'm afraid Iowa wins comfortably.

 

[BRucks]

There's plenty of bad blood between these two schools. Even the youngsters here probably know about the scum bucket Bruce Pearl and what he did to Deon Thomas in 1989. That transgression, though, pales in comparison to what those savages did to us in '52: https://www.thegazette.com/subject/...d-the-iowa-illinois-football-rivalry-20141114

Some historical background. Zuppke had owned Iowa after the war, thumping them each year from '42-'52, including the game reported on above. As a result of the '52 game, the series was canceled until '67. Though Iowa has had our number of late (winning 11 of 12), the series is still slightly in our favor. It would be much more lopsided had they not dodged us for those 15 years early in Ray Eliot's tenure.

 

[the Castle on Daniel]

I’m also nervous about this one and I am fully prepared to lose it, but as I said, if the boys show up ready for war, we can take this one. Iowa played hard last week and likely benefitted from Minnesota putting it all on the line against PSU the week before. Hoping they find themselves in a similar position this Saturday.

 

[Halloweenie]

I promise you we are very likely to throw it early. We can't just line it up and establish the run game anymore. I would bring early blitzes, but of course that is high risk/high reward.

The games I have seen would say Stanley has strong arm but not great accuracy. Is that correct?

 

[KrushCow31]

11am? Come on now...

 

[Dan]

 

[Twangers]

Yeah, well, the rest of your post got cut off. You were saying they have a very interesting team.

Yeah, watched Minnesota just a bit ago. This team is definitely odd. Non-traditional by Iowa standards yet still overly conservative.

The Iowa teams we’re used to seeing all win the same way offensively. Establish the run game early, use it to set up the play action and some of the bootleg stuff they used a lot with Stanzi and Beathard, win down the seam and along the short hash then once they have a lead into the late third/fourth quarter, run the ball hard and let the big maulers grind you down. That’s how Iowa has always done it. They are unable to do that right now. They have really struggled in the phone booth. All of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa State got tremendous pressure along the interior and it’s forced them into a rushing offense that now relies almost solely upon misdirection and space to move the football. This is where they are non-traditional and it’s going to force us to be very, very disciplined outside if we want to try to contain them. Lining up heavy and crashing gaps the way we did against Wisconsin won’t help us.

As for their overly conservative nature, you still see a pass game that reeks of Kirk Ferentz. The Iowa guy, Brew, said they “wing it around” a lot now. But they don’t, at least not by the accepted definition of that term. It’s true they are throwing the football more than they ever have. During the Beathard days, the year they went to the Rose Bowl, the offense averaged around 25 pass attempts per game. This season they’re on pace for over 30 but when it comes to the routes they’re calling, this offense very closely resembles that time. A lot of short to intermediate seam, a lot of short hash and a lot of short to intermediate slant. That’s pretty much their tree in it’s entirety. A lover of the high octane passing offense would call it “boring”. For me, it’s simply conservative which goes back to their ability to prevent turning the football over. Nate Stanley himself is a big part of this as well. I obviously don’t know which is correct, I’ve never sat and broken down film with the kid but Stanley definitely, 100% shows a high propensity to either diagnose coverages well post-snap or simply understand when he doesn’t know the coverage and do the savvy, senior thing by making the safe throw. Jack Coan threw us the ball late in the 4th quarter because he misread the coverage. Jack Plummer threw us a pick 6 because he misread the coverage. Brian Lewerke threw us a pick 6 on a risky throw because he ignored an underneath route to try and play for the first down on 3rd and 10. Nate Stanley is unlikely to make these mistakes. He’ll either read our coverage and avoid it or he’ll admit to himself that he doesn’t understand what is happening and avoid it. Either way, the throws we BEG QBs to try against us likely won’t be thrown. If push comes to shove, they’ll settle for a FG (This team on tape seems to kick a lot of FGs) or punt the ball away and let their defense do the heavy lifting (And they’re pretty good at it). Very conservative.

Iowa is beatable (All dude respect, I don’t see a top 10 team. You need to consistently move the football to be a top 10 team) but not in the way we’ve been beating teams. Lovie claims Betiku is close to coming back but that worries me. His gap awareness is really low. We can’t lose contain against Iowa. I’d rather we played a lesser pass rusher who could hold the edge. We’re also going to have to consider going to heavy sets offensively. Minnesota had success chipping Epenesa...until they didn’t. They have a lot of kids who can get after the QB and they love to be aggressive with the backers. Heavy TE sets and a chip back on passing downs might limit us to an extent but it may be a necessary evil. Our OL won’t win these battles man on man.

 

[BZuppke]

There's plenty of bad blood between these two schools. Even the youngsters here probably know about the scum bucket Bruce Pearl and what he did to Deon Thomas in 1989. That transgression, though, pales in comparison to what those savages did to us in '52: https://www.thegazette.com/subject/...d-the-iowa-illinois-football-rivalry-20141114

Some historical background. Zuppke had owned Iowa after the war, thumping them each year from '42-'52, including the game reported on above. As a result of the '52 game, the series was canceled until '67. Though Iowa has had our number of late (winning 11 of 12), the series is still slightly in our favor. It would be much more lopsided had they not dodged us for those 15 years early in Ray Eliot's tenure.

You nod off here Rucks - Ray Eliot was coaching in this period.

 

[BZuppke]

Yeah, watched Minnesota just a bit ago. This team is definitely odd. Non-traditional by Iowa standards yet still overly conservative.

The Iowa teams we’re used to seeing all win the same way offensively. Establish the run game early, use it to set up the play action and some of the bootleg stuff they used a lot with Stanzi and Beathard, win down the seam and along the short hash then once they have a lead into the late third/fourth quarter, run the ball hard and let the big maulers grind you down. That’s how Iowa has always done it. They are unable to do that right now. They have really struggled in the phone booth. All of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa State got tremendous pressure along the interior and it’s forced them into a rushing offense that now relies almost solely upon misdirection and space to move the football. This is where they are non-traditional and it’s going to force us to be very, very disciplined outside if we want to try to contain them. Lining up heavy and crashing gaps the way we did against Wisconsin won’t help us.

As for their overly conservative nature, you still see a pass game that reeks of Kirk Ferentz. The Iowa guy, Brew, said they “wing it around” a lot now. But they don’t, at least not by the accepted definition of that term. It’s true they are throwing the football more than they ever have. During the Beathard days, the year they went to the Rose Bowl, the offense averaged around 25 pass attempts per game. This season they’re on pace for over 30 but when it comes to the routes they’re calling, this offense very closely resembles that time. A lot of short to intermediate seam, a lot of short hash and a lot of short to intermediate slant. That’s pretty much their tree in it’s entirety. A lover of the high octane passing offense would call it “boring”. For me, it’s simply conservative which goes back to their ability to prevent turning the football over. Nate Stanley himself is a big part of this as well. I obviously don’t know which is correct, I’ve never sat and broken down film with the kid but Stanley definitely, 100% shows a high propensity to either diagnose coverages well post-snap or simply understand when he doesn’t know the coverage and do the savvy, senior thing by making the safe throw. Jack Coan threw us the ball late in the 4th quarter because he misread the coverage. Jack Plummer threw us a pick 6 because he misread the coverage. Brian Lewerke threw us a pick 6 on a risky throw because he ignored an underneath route to try and play for the first down on 3rd and 10. Nate Stanley is unlikely to make these mistakes. He’ll either read our coverage and avoid it or he’ll admit to himself that he doesn’t understand what is happening and avoid it. Either way, the throws we BEG QBs to try against us likely won’t be thrown. If push comes to shove, they’ll settle for a FG (This team on tape seems to kick a lot of FGs) or punt the ball away and let their defense do the heavy lifting (And they’re pretty good at it). Very conservative.

Iowa is beatable (All dude respect, I don’t see a top 10 team. You need to consistently move the football to be a top 10 team) but not in the way we’ve been beating teams. Lovie claims Betiku is close to coming back but that worries me. His gap awareness is really low. We can’t lose contain against Iowa. I’d rather we played a lesser pass rusher who could hold the edge. We’re also going to have to consider going to heavy sets offensively. Minnesota had success chipping Epenesa...until they didn’t. They have a lot of kids who can get after the QB and they love to be aggressive with the backers. Heavy TE sets and a chip back on passing downs might limit us to an extent but it may be a necessary evil. Our OL won’t win these battles man on man.

Wow. Impressive analysis. Seems like all the more reason we need to get an early lead and force them out of their conservative comfort zone. How about if we win the toss we do the un-Lovie thing and take the ball and try to score early.