Pregame: Illinois at Iowa, Saturday, November 23rd, 11:00am CT, BTN

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#126      

Twangers

T
Twangers
I do still believe we have a number of factors working in our favor, all of which stem from coming off of a bye when Iowa had to fight to to the last minute today. That said, this team is not Michigan State. If we go down 3 touchdowns there will be no crawling out from under that deficit.

I’ll watch the game Monday when I return but Epenesa appeared to be too much to handle.
He’s going to be a problem.
 
#127      

the national

the national
the Front Range
the national
As long as we can shake up the cadence of the game, we might have a shot. When Iowa marches right along, things fall into their favor. Turnovers or big defensive stops can really help disrupt the game flow. If we keep it close and stay within striking distance, We might have a shot.

We’ll need some big plays to challenge their momentum. Minn didn’t manage to do that tonight. The score looked better than the actual game. The second half was boring by Kirk Ferentz design. That better not happen to us or else we are toast.
 
#128      

Fighter of the Nightman

Fighter of the Nightman
Chicago, IL
Fighter of the Nightman
the national said:
As long as we can shake up the cadence of the game, we might have a shot. When Iowa marches right along, things fall into their favor. Turnovers or big defensive stops can really help disrupt the game flow. If we keep it close and stay within striking distance, We might have a shot.

We’ll need some big plays to challenge their momentum. Minn didn’t manage to do that tonight. The score looked better than the actual game. The second half was boring by Kirk Ferentz design. That better not happen to us or else we are toast.
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Yep. I’m hoping we sneak up on them a bit; they were pretty pumped up for today.
 
#129      

ILLHangOut

I
ILLHangOut
I’m not convinced rod smith can successfully call a slugfest game. IMO, our best Chance to win is to slow the game down, and hope our defense can create some turnovers as the difference; classic Lovieball.
 
#130      

kiwanegarris22

K
South Carolina
kiwanegarris22
Just 5 remaining dominoes now to need to fall for our first Big 10 title game!

Nov. 23 -- we need victories by IL, PUR and NW (this is the really tough week)
Nov. 30 -- we need victories by IL and WI (both teams could be favored)

Tiebreaker is then ours. Odds of this occurring? Definitely less than 90%. It all starts at 11am next Saturday. Go Illini!
 
#131      

Hopingfor500

H
Hopingfor500
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Yep. I’m hoping we sneak up on them a bit; they were pretty pumped up for today.
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That's the one thing about winning...it significantly reduces the potential for sneaking up on anybody. After winning four in a row, I'm thinking we're not going to catch Iowa looking ahead to Nebraska. That's the next hurdle for the program. Once you become relevant, you're going to start getting other team's best effort. That's the next challenge for Lovie and his band of warriors. They got relevant, now they have to stay relevant.

To be clear, I am NOT implying that a 14-21 TD loss to Iowa is a step backwards. When Iowa plays well, their as good as, if not better than any team in the conference not named Ohio State.... ESPECIALLY at home. They're a load to handle.
 
#132      

tru82

T
tru82
We threw it with some success last week after we got down, this week, hopefully we mix it up early. Will need Dre to tough out some yards, passes to the backs, Barker, BheBhe....so, you know, the plan is to do everything and execute perfectly. Simple!

on D, I’m basically expecting a lot of yards in the 1H, and stiffen up in the 2H with some turnovers. Hopefully we can withstand their punch and hang around. If we get Betiku and Woods back on the lines, that’d be nice.
 
#133      

kyillinifan

K
kyillinifan
Isn’t that what was for the Wi, Pu,and the MSU game? We have to stop the run. Looking forward to a good game.
 
#134      

Goldtop

G
Goldtop
kiwanegarris22 said:
Just 5 remaining dominoes now to need to fall for our first Big 10 title game!

Nov. 23 -- we need victories by IL, PUR and NW (this is the really tough week)
Nov. 30 -- we need victories by IL and WI (both teams could be favored)

Tiebreaker is then ours. Odds of this occurring? Definitely less than 90%. It all starts at 11am next Saturday. Go Illini!
Click to expand...
So you're saying there's a chance.
 
#135      

OskeeWowzer

O
OskeeWowzer
kiwanegarris22 said:
Nov. 23 -- we need victories by IL, PUR and NW (this is the really tough week)
Nov. 30 -- we need victories by IL and WI (both teams could be favored)

Tiebreaker is then ours. Odds of this occurring? Definitely less than 90%. It all starts at 11am next Saturday. Go Illini!
Click to expand...
Saw somewhere last week that the odds of Illinois getting to the B1G title game were 1/1864 or 0.054%. That was leading into yesterday’s games. I can’t imagine the needle has shifted much. BUT, as you said, this weekend is the big one. If we win and Wisconsin and Minnesota lose, then then odds of us winning the west have to shoot up to 50%ish.

That’d be insane though.
 
#137      

SampsonRelpenk

SampsonRelpenk
Edwardsville, IL
SampsonRelpenk
It'd be nice if there was a way we could tie for first and lose a tiebreaker. Moral victory of "winning" the division without being sacrificed to OSU.
 
#138      

OskeeWowzer

O
OskeeWowzer
bombayIllini said:
How can we play in a title game? At best we tie with MN at 6-3 and they win based on the tiebreaker?
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OskeeWowzer said:
Assuming Illinois is tied with Minnesota and Wisconsin all with a 6-3 record at the end of the regular season, that would mean the following:
  • Illinois beats Iowa and Northwestern
  • Minnesota loses to Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin
  • Wisconsin beats Iowa, and loses to either Nebraska or Purdue and beats the other
According to the Big Ten Conference website, here are the procedures for determining tie breakers:

The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a three team tie:

If three teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage in games between the tied teams.
Since all three of the teams would have a 1-1 record against each other, we can't determine anything based off of this step, so we move to the next one.

2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared based on winning percentage within their division.
Illinois would be 4-2 against B1G West opponents.
Wisconsin would be 4-2 against B1G West opponents.
Minnesota would be 3-3 against B1G West opponents.

Since Minnesota would be removed from the equation after having a worse record than both Illinois and Wisconsin, it comes down to head-to-head between Illinois and Wisconsin. Thus, Illinois would be the B1G West champion due to their win against Wisconsin.

There are 6 more steps, but they wouldn't need to be followed.

To reiterate, the only way Illinois can win the B1G West is if the following things happen:
  • Illinois has to win outright,
  • Minnesota has to lose outright, and
  • Wisconsin has to beat Minnesota and split between Nebraska and Purdue.
You can make up your own mind on the likelihood of any or all of those things happening.
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#140      

BZuppke

BZuppke
Plainfield
BZuppke
I think a lot of this game will come down to Iowa’s mental state. There’s a chance, after beating Minnesota, they come out flat. That’s our best case scenario. Coming off a bye you hope you’re healed up and ready to go but sometimes you’re rusty and out of rhythm. It will be interesting to see how it flushes out. Winnable game.
 
#141      

t7nich

t7nich
Central IL
t7nich
ILLHangOut said:
I’m not convinced rod smith can successfully call a slugfest game. IMO, our best Chance to win is to slow the game down, and hope our defense can create some turnovers as the difference; classic Lovieball.
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Agree. Our offense / Peters is not consistent enough to hang with Iowa. Epenesa is going to be Peters worse nightmare. Our D will need to account for at least 4 tds to keep us in this game.

Probably something like 45-17

Hope I’m wrong
 
#143      

the Castle on Daniel

T
the Castle on Daniel
It'd make my November if Minnesota falls to Northwestern, Wisconsin falls to Purdue, and we beat Iowa, but I don't see all three happening. I'd gladly have both Minny and Wisconsin win if it means we come out of Iowa City with the W.

What happens if Wisconsin loses to Purdue and beats Minnesota? Wisconsin is the champ of the West?
 
#144      

lexwaldez

lexwaldez
lexwaldez
I think Illinois covers in a close loss. We're a lot better, but it is tuff to win in Iowa City.
I'm more interested to see if we can come out in the first quarter and play good football in the first half.
Who knows? Maybe the weather gods will smile upon us again.
 
#145      

Deleted member 654622

D
Guest
Deleted member 654622
That spread means we still do not have the respect of the general pop. I don't know if they are wrong or right. But I am very interested to see how we come out coming off a bye week and healthier.
 
#150      

IlliniFandom

IlliniFandom
IlliniFandom
I love the optimism...but this is one that I'm not sure we are able to take home. I think if it were in Champaign, I might give us a little more of a chance, but still have us lose. I just hope it's competitive to get us going into the NU game with some pride. No reason to not think it'll be close because this team knows no quit! I just need to turn the game on after halftime. I can't stand watching the first 2 quarters!
 
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