Pregame: Illinois at Wisconsin, Monday, February 18th, 7:00pm CT, FS1

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#51      
I read somewhere that the most losses ever for an at-large bid was 14 games. We're sitting at 10-15. So while I think we need to keep fighting to get better, and these games absolutely matter, the only entry to the dance is going to be winning the BTT. NIT is another story, as we should be able to get an at-large there.

Haven't read the whole thread, so apologies if this was already discussed.

Vanderbilt got in at-large in 2017 and Alabama got in at-large in 2018 with 15 losses both at 19-15.
 
#53      
I still contend that Wisconsin is one of the worst match-ups for us in the B10. They are a slow-paced, methodical team. Last year we would play great D against them and they would just run their offense and finally get that open shot with < 3 seconds on the shot clock. Our pressure D should have less effect on the Badgers than most other B10 teams. Additionally, I'm not confident we can bottle Happ up again like we did in the first game, especially at home.

That being said...If I'm not mistaken, they are like tOSU in that they don't play real deep, right? If we can get under their skin, get them in foul trouble, and start getting in to their heads and speed them up we have a chance. It would also help if we could shoot in the 75% range from the FT line and maybe shoot in the 35%+ range from behind the arc.

We're playing as good as anyone in the conference right now and we have a shot in any game. I really wish this one was in Champaign. I think the home-court advantage is the difference. Until we prove we can beat Wisky, I think they have us.

Come on, Illini, prove me wrong and bring home ANOTHER huge victory.
 
#54      
Another little tidbit if we win out - we’ll have defeated every team in B10 except Michigan and Iowa.

If anything, that projects very well for our B10 tourney chances, and next year.
 
#56      
As we approach the weekend of no Illini games, I can't help but step back and just think how INCREDIBLY awesome it is that fans are talking about potentially winning out. Yeah, yeah, probably won't happen. So what? The fact that literally anyone is entertaining it as a possible scenario speaks volumes to this turnaround. We likely will lose two more games, but the fact is we are playing like a team that might lose zero. At Wisconsin is about as tough of a win as you can come by the last 20 years, but we have fared better there than most programs ... let's go get this W.
 
#57      
That being said...If I'm not mistaken, they are like tOSU in that they don't play real deep, right? If we can get under their skin, get them in foul trouble, and start getting in to their heads and speed them up we have a chance. It would also help if we could shoot in the 75% range from the FT line and maybe shoot in the 35%+ range from behind the arc.

They go 8 deep, but lean on their top three (Trice, Happ, Davison) for minutes more than most teams. They all play ~32/game, then four guys play around 20+, and another guy (Ford) cleans up most the rest. So it really depends on who gets in foul trouble for them.
 
#59      

pruman91

Paducah, Ky
setting here reading all my Illini brothers glowing remarks about the Illini, sipping on an Absolut & 7, listening to Kiana Lede / Selfless cd....live is GOOD !!!!
 
#60      

Illini_1979

Oregon
... Additionally, I'm not confident we can bottle Happ up again like we did in the first game, especially at home.

Come on, Illini, prove me wrong and bring home ANOTHER huge victory.
I'm concerned about Happ killing us. He'll be highly motivated after we bottled him up last game.

And I, too, am hoping to be proved wrong.
 
#61      
IMO if we win this game, the tourney talk becomes realistic. Finish the season winning 10 of our last 12, including 3 wins over ranked opponents and 3 wins on the road, then we have to win 3 in the BTT and hope the bubble breaks our way.

I don't think this is necessarily likely, but its not as unrealistic as I thought it was just 2 weeks ago.
 
#62      

Deleted member 29907

D
Guest
I'm concerned about Happ killing us. He'll be highly motivated after we bottled him up last game.

And I, too, am hoping to be proved wrong.
I may be in the minority - but I think if you get in Happ's head early - you can frustrate him and take him partially out of the game. He's pretty one dimensional since he can't shoot from the outside - but he is very good at finding the open shooter.
 
#63      

illini80

Forgottonia
I think part of Happs frustration last game was the turnovers we caused him with the double teams and jumping his normal passing lanes. We probably don’t get him in foul trouble again, but I still think we can frustrate him and keep him in check.
 
#65      
I think part of Happs frustration last game was the turnovers we caused him with the double teams and jumping his normal passing lanes. We probably don’t get him in foul trouble again, but I still think we can frustrate him and keep him in check.

IF that is true, then it will be worse this time around.

Not much should have changed at their end (other than trying to prepare for it by watching more vids, etc).

At our end, not just teh starter, we go pretty much 7 deep without any degradation of intensity. BU mentioned that at tOSU game it was the D that enabled us to win - shooting FG and FT were inferior.

We need to shoot better.

We win this game too.
 
#66      
I think, at this point in time, most stats are out of the window. We are playing the best defense of the BU era. In addition more of our players are getting comfortable with playing this defense (more bodies). It has been often stated there is really no way to replicate our defense (wisky has no clue, just like MSU and tOSU). If we continue to play at this level we win out. The stats that need to be considered are those of the past 5/6 games. Who cares how we played 5 years ago or even last year or earlier this year?

Short answer: disagree. :)

IL: 60
WI: 56


I admire your optimism .....but the odds of winning at Wisconsin will be slim and none.....and the odds of winning at Purdue will be even less than that
 
#67      
I think, at this point in time, most stats are out of the window. We are playing the best defense of the BU era. In addition more of our players are getting comfortable with playing this defense (more bodies). It has been often stated there is really no way to replicate our defense (wisky has no clue, just like MSU and tOSU). If we continue to play at this level we win out. The stats that need to be considered are those of the past 5/6 games. Who cares how we played 5 years ago or even last year or earlier this year?

Short answer: disagree. :)

IL: 60
WI: 56
I totally agree that everyone is discounting how good Illinois is. The Illini have demonstrated for the last 6 games that they can (and will) beat anybody. They have done it with defense. 1. It is much less likely to have an off night if your strength is defense versus offense. 2. The defense is so alien to most opponents making it doubly effective. One way that the defense might fail is if the opponents have a couple of guards who can make their own plays because they will be taken out of their normal offense.
 
#68      
Some stats (from: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/356/illinois-fighting-illini)

Comparing IL vs. WI and IL since the WI game (MD-tOSU)

IL vs. WI /IL vs. Others
FG: 36/46
3P: 19/34
FT: 55/69
TO: 10/13
ST: 10/6

WI vs. IL/Others vs. IL
FG: 51/43
3P: 50/27
FT: 81/75
TO: 17/14
ST: 5/7

We have improved to say the very least.

And, that 6 game stretch has been against really tough teams (2 of them away). So, the numbers since the last WI game are real. Numbers to hang your hat on.
 
#69      
I admire your optimism .....but the odds of winning at Wisconsin will be slim and none.....and the odds of winning at Purdue will be even less than that

Not optimism.

"Data scientist" predictive modeling, class of 79.

Ref above post #72.
 
#70      
I admire your optimism .....but the odds of winning at Wisconsin will be slim and none.....and the odds of winning at Purdue will be even less than that

Before the Ohio State game:

Ramrod2010 said:

I don't think this team is ready to win on the road just yet.

OSU - 79
UI - 72


Response:
So you're sayin, you'll be looking for a landing spot on the bandwagon'late Thursday.

The Wagon's getting really full,but always room for one more pessimist. But you may have to sit on someone's lap after Monday. This Illini team is becoming something special. Wisc game earlier was only 7. And as someone else pointed out, Defense travels.
 
#71      
My mistake, 12, but a close 12*, think I was focused on the prediction from Ramrod above for tOSU game.

*''It certainly wasn't easy for us. Everyone knows winning on the road isn't easy in this conference,'' Wisconsin coach Greg Gard said. ''I guess that's why they call it winning ugly.''

Neither team led by more than seven points until late in the game when Wisconsin began to pull away. The Illini went cold late in the game, going 0-6 from the field and allowing the Badgers to pull ahead. Wisconsin took its largest lead of the game 58-50 and finished on a 7-2 run for the win.
 
#72      
Some stats (from: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/356/illinois-fighting-illini)

Comparing IL vs. WI and IL since the WI game (MD-tOSU)

IL vs. WI /IL vs. Others
FG: 36/46
3P: 19/34
FT: 55/69
TO: 10/13
ST: 10/6

WI vs. IL/Others vs. IL
FG: 51/43
3P: 50/27
FT: 81/75
TO: 17/14
ST: 5/7

We have improved to say the very least.

And, that 6 game stretch has been against really tough teams (2 of them away). So, the numbers since the last WI game are real. Numbers to hang your hat on.
Appreciate the insight.
 
#73      
Some stats (from: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/356/illinois-fighting-illini)

Comparing IL vs. WI and IL since the WI game (MD-tOSU)

IL vs. WI /IL vs. Others
FG: 36/46
3P: 19/34
FT: 55/69
TO: 10/13
ST: 10/6

WI vs. IL/Others vs. IL
FG: 51/43
3P: 50/27
FT: 81/75
TO: 17/14
ST: 5/7

We have improved to say the very least.

And, that 6 game stretch has been against really tough teams (2 of them away). So, the numbers since the last WI game are real. Numbers to hang your hat on.
Again, please?
 
#74      
I totally agree that everyone is discounting how good Illinois is. The Illini have demonstrated for the last 6 games that they can (and will) beat anybody. They have done it with defense. 1. It is much less likely to have an off night if your strength is defense versus offense. 2. The defense is so alien to most opponents making it doubly effective.

It is kind of amusing watching other team gets thrown out of their normal rhythm, sometimes self-destruct, and have that WFT look on their face. :)
 
#75      
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