Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

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That's right. The staff purposely holds the number of top 500 players to about 30% of the class, lest they appear too greedy. Coach Franklin's mother must be soooo embarrassed.
The staff is going to prioritize guys regardless of ranking like Okpala and Randolph (who are just outside the top 500) and when scholarships are short like this year it is going to be hard for Illinois to rake in 8 highly ranked guys and still have room for guys they like regardless of ranking.

What's my evidence that if they had 10 more scholarships to give that we would likely see the top 500 number go up?

1. It's their 3rd going on 4th season of building relationships which is crucial.
2. We are starting to win recruitments with elite recruits, whereas we lost close ones like Jeff Thomas and Ford in the past.
3. We won several hard fought recruitments against other more successful P5 schools for guys like Coleman, Randolph, Cooper, Cumby and Okpara

The original post I responded to made it sound like if we had 10 more rides to give, we would just fill them with a Beckman level recruit. I just don't see evidence of that
 
I was being lazy typing 4 star instead of top 500. But the point remains.

I'm not seeing the hatred for the recruiting class you see. I have the feeling if someone doesn't think the class is as rosy as you think it is, you believe they hate it.
There are posters that have complained about the talent we brought in with this class. One's that I have argued with on here.
 
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Who knows and who cares?

It depends on the number of top recruits are in the area, and who is running point on the recruitment, and .... We targeted some big names in positions of need that happened to be local. We landed them this year. Other years we have not, think Merlin Robertson, for example, comes to mind. There are so many confounding factors.

We also targeted recruits at positions of need. We didn't send out nets as wide this year on every recruit because we were targeting areas of need.

Also, what is the significance of top 500 recruits. Why not top 200? Why not top 750?

If you look at top 300, we had 3. Iowa had 1. Maryland had 2, Indiana had 1, Michigan State had 2.
Significance of top-500? Nothing other than the fact that it's a fairly round number, and it roughly corresponds to the top-100 or 150 in college hoops. All things being equal, it's a pretty good aggregate metric as to how a team is recruiting. No point in rehashing the same argument about some 2* kid blossoming into an NFL hall of famer or some 5* kid becoming a nobody, but on the whole, it's a fairly good metric.

I'll have to dig up the source (SBNation, I believe), but somebody did a study finding that no team in modern history (at least since recruiting rankings were a thing) has won a national title with less than 50% of their roster being at the 4* level or above. They call it the "blue chip ratio". Obviously that's not what we're chasing -- a national title. We're trying to get back to a bowl. But it speaks well to the issue of accumulated talent.

Maryland just landed a top-100 kid today -- Nick Cross, elite safety from Maryland. Flipped from FSU. Parents wanted him to go to PSU, he wanted FSU, they compromised on Maryland. Locksley already with three 4* commits over the past few weeks. Dude can recruit. A shame he can't coach.
 
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The staff is going to prioritize guys regardless of ranking like Okpala and Randolph (who are just outside the top 500) and when scholarships are short like this year it is going to be hard for Illinois to rake in 8 highly ranked guys and still have room for guys they like regardless of ranking.

What's my evidence that if they had 10 more scholarships to give that we would likely see the top 500 number go up?

1. It's their 3rd going on 4th season of building relationships which is crucial.
2. We are starting to win recruitments with elite recruits, whereas we lost close ones like Jeff Thomas and Ford in the past.
3. We won several hard fought recruitments against other more successful P5 schools for guys like Coleman, Randolph, Cooper, Cumby and Okpara

The original post I responded to made it sound like if we had 10 more rides to give, we would just fill them with a Beckman level recruit. I just don't see evidence of that
That's true for only 3 coaches. You need to build relationships but you can't do that when you are having consistent turnover in your staff.
 
My takeaways:

  1. Wisconsin and Nebraska bring in a lot of talent. Wisconsin does great things with their talent. Nebraska....does not
  2. Almost all of Purdue's numbers are from this incoming class. That's not good news for us.
  3. Minnesota is not doing as well recruiting as I was lead to believe. Guessing this is primarily because of the strong recruiting location crossover with Illinois.
  4. Iowa and Northwestern's staff are doing incredible work without top-shelf talent (Caveat is both programs bring in a TON of 500-1000 ranked recruits)
  5. Illinois' numbers show that top-level talent is strong, but the tapering off is apparent in the top 500 list. It gets worse as you look deeper into 500-1000 list.
  6. Brohm must leave
  7. Seriously, how does Nebraska have so much and do so little?

I think Nebraska will turn things around in due time. Especially with their true freshman QB (who has at least 2 more seasons in Lincoln). I'm not convinced Nebraska will ever recruit the way they did during the Osborne years, and the Great Plains aren't exactly loaded with talent. But Frost has a lot of history and good facilities to sell -- and a very passionate fan base.

Iowa definitely gets it done with the talent they get. They and Michigan State consistently overperform their recruiting.

With PSU starting to recruit at an elite level and Locksley now recruiting at Maryland, there's going to be a crazy amount of talent in the B1G East in the years to come. Assuming of course that Ryan Day keeps the ball rolling at Ohio State.
 
That's true for only 3 coaches. You need to build relationships but you can't do that when you are having consistent turnover in your staff.
Lovie as well but you're right with Ward and Butkus leaving you have to replace those with guys who can get the job done, though I'm not sure how much recruiting Butkus was doing.

You have to hope Hudson and other 2 assistants they bring in have existing connections and relationships that will pay off immediately like Patterson did. I've stated before I'm high on Hudson but we still need some recruiting help
 
Significance of top-500? Nothing other than the fact that it's a fairly round number, and it roughly corresponds to the top-100 or 150 in college hoops. All things being equal, it's a pretty good aggregate metric as to how a team is recruiting. No point in rehashing the same argument about some 2* kid blossoming into an NFL hall of famer or some 5* kid becoming a nobody, but on the whole, it's a fairly good metric.

I'll have to dig up the source (SBNation, I believe), but somebody did a study finding that no team in modern history (at least since recruiting rankings were a thing) has won a national title with less than 50% of their roster being at the 4* level or above. They call it the "blue chip ratio". Obviously that's not what we're chasing -- a national title. We're trying to get back to a bowl. But it speaks well to the issue of accumulated talent.

Maryland just landed a top-100 kid today -- Nick Cross, elite safety from Maryland. Flipped from FSU. Parents wanted him to go to PSU, he wanted FSU, they compromised on Maryland. Locksley already with three 4* commits over the past few weeks. Dude can recruit. A shame he can't coach.
Thanks. I appreciate the idea and your thoughts. I wouldn’t argue that higher is not better. But my guess is that there becomes a point, where the difference between recruits is Arbitrary. Maybe 350-800. Roughly higher ranked recruits will be better, and I think mhuml’s metric of team talent is probably a little better than any individual class. Given that our coach is set for the year, I would argue that this recruiting class fills the gaps well. Especially with higher ranked recruits than we typically get. We will just have to wait and see how the year plays out.
 
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That's true for only 3 coaches. You need to build relationships but you can't do that when you are having consistent turnover in your staff.
Given Lovie is a celebrity, I think Illinois has been establishing relationships under his brand. I am not worried about the coaches that are leaving. Not to say that we won’t miss Thad or the others, but I’m not worried about it
 
The staff is going to prioritize guys regardless of ranking like Okpala and Randolph (who are just outside the top 500) and when scholarships are short like this year it is going to be hard for Illinois to rake in 8 highly ranked guys and still have room for guys they like regardless of ranking.

What's my evidence that if they had 10 more scholarships to give that we would likely see the top 500 number go up?

1. It's their 3rd going on 4th season of building relationships which is crucial.
2. We are starting to win recruitments with elite recruits, whereas we lost close ones like Jeff Thomas and Ford in the past.
3. We won several hard fought recruitments against other more successful P5 schools for guys like Coleman, Randolph, Cooper, Cumby and Okpara

The original post I responded to made it sound like if we had 10 more rides to give, we would just fill them with a Beckman level recruit. I just don't see evidence of that
You make it seem so easy to get these top 500 players. If we only had more scholarships...

Evidence for an additional ten rides going to low 3 star recruits? Well, the Illini had five players rated below Northwestern's lowest rated player, and a sixth who was in the ballpark, plus two rides not given to anyone... that brings us to 80% of your hypothetical ten extra rides. I guess easy-peasy to get two more top 1000 players from some other school since the coaches would have built relationships... if they had only known they had those extra rides.
 
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You make it seem so easy to get these top 500 players. If we only had more scholarships...

Evidence for an additional ten rides going to low 3 star recruits? Well, the Illini had five players rated below Northwestern's lowest rated player, and a sixth who was in the ballpark, plus two rides not given to anyone... that brings us to 80% of your hypothetical ten extra rides. I guess easy-peasy to get two more top 1000 players from some other school since the coaches would have built relationships... if they had only known they had those extra rides.
You think the staff's evaluations follow recruiting sites rankings? If they did we wouldn't have offered Seth Coleman or essentially our entire starting offensive line.

I'll try and make it simple. In the 2019 class we prioritized Keith Randolph Defensive End. We also recruited Jason Bargy and in state 4 Star Defensive End but did not make him a priority (yes I know he now has legal problems, which are immaterial for this exercise.) If we had more rides we may have made both these guys targets and aggressively target both. As it was we had to be judicious with our primary targets. In 2020 we should have more rides and perhaps someone in Bargy's spot becomes a prime target along with others.
 
Thanks. I appreciate the idea and your thoughts. I wouldn’t argue that higher is not better. But my guess is that there becomes a point, where the difference between recruits is Arbitrary. Maybe 350-800. Roughly higher ranked recruits will be better, and I think mhuml’s metric of team talent is probably a little better than any individual class. Given that our coach is set for the year, I would argue that this recruiting class fills the gaps well. Especially with higher ranked recruits than we typically get. We will just have to wait and see how the year plays out.
Yep, I totally agree. Certainly, kids in the top-100 in football are the kids you want. And we have two of them in that ballpark. Not bad for a program that has struggled as mightily as we have. Those top-100 kids are basically equivalent of top-25 recruits in hoops. They're a cut above.

When you get to the 300-500 range -- and probably beyond -- yeah, it's tough to really differentiate. At that point, you're really looking for specific measurables and attributes that set a kid apart from other recruits at that position. Maybe your system calls for speed, and you take a speedier kid. Maybe you really need a power RB, so a power back ranked #500 overall is preferable to a finesse back ranked #300. I guess that's why the staff gets paid money to make these calls.
 
You think the staff's evaluations follow recruiting sites rankings? If they did we wouldn't have offered Seth Coleman or essentially our entire starting offensive line.

I'll try and make it simple. In the 2019 class we prioritized Keith Randolph Defensive End. We also recruited Jason Bargy and in state 4 Star Defensive End but did not make him a priority (yes I know he now has legal problems, which are immaterial for this exercise.) If we had more rides we may have made both these guys targets and aggressively target both. As it was we had to be judicious with our primary targets. In 2020 we should have more rides and perhaps someone in Bargy's spot becomes a prime target along with others.
You both make good points. Whether the coaching staff is making the right calls is yet to be determined. I think we have the players on the roster, barring major injuries, to compete in the big ten and are in position to win 6ish games. If the staff thinks a 2* kid is what they need for the team to be better, I could care less about ranking. If we don’t start winning more games, then we need a coach that can win more games. .
 
Illinois will be successful when a coach can do more with what he has and find a scheme that better teams/
better talent can't figure out. Mike White did it with passing QB's, no more talent across the board, but a
scheme with great QB arms.

I think RS is on the right track offensively. We need speed, spread the field and quickly get the ball to a
few fast play makers. That's what Purdue did last year. Defensively, this is much harder to do. I'm not sure
what the defensive scheme is that makes us over perform with lesser talent. As long as were trying to catch
the talent of Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin in the west this will be our downfall. Purdue, Northwestern and
Minnesota are the teams we need to beat now for this staff to succeed.
 
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Illinois will be successful when a coach can do more with what he has and find a scheme that better teams/
better talent can't figure out. Mike White did it with passing QB's, no more talent across the board, but a
scheme with great QB arms.

I think RS is on the right track offensively. We need speed, spread the field and quickly get the ball to a
few fast play makers. That's what Purdue did last year. Defensively, this is much harder to do. I'm not sure
what the defensive scheme is that makes us over perform with lesser talent. As long as were trying to catch
the talent of Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin in the west this will be our downfall. Purdue, Northwestern and
Minnesota are the teams we need to beat now for this staff to succeed.
I believe the staff is trying to get "faster" at every position on the football field. It will be interesting when these current players become Juniors and Seniors. Then we will know if their speed/athleticism can match up against Wisc/Iowa's size and strength.
 
HS kids make up player and tweet out fake Alabama offer. 247 gives him a 3 star rating after Rivals did. Kinda makes you question the ratings justtttt a bit.

Assuming this tweet is true and not made up, it looks pretty bad for Rivals. Looking forward to their comment. I'm not sure I get the indignation at 247. It seems the composite ranking is just running its algorithm quickly and correctly.
 
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