The biggest concern for IW will be reading the defense. Thus far in his career, he has been an Athlete playing QB. Learning how to do that in 4 or 5 weeks is tough. His performance at the elite 11 is an indicator of his current knowledge and where he need to improve. He will get playing time simply because people will push for it. He is a determined kid so I feel confident he will put the work in. The unfortunate part is its just not that easy. As far as his percentages in High School, this season was by far the best competition he faced in his high school career.
Illinois Football Recruiting Thread
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This is why I think he will be eased into action with a smaller package of plays until the college game starts slowing down a bit for him. It's good that IW doesn't have to be THE MAN from the jump. He can supplement along with Rivers
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The sudden interest in rank per player is hilarious. Surely that's the result of some deep introspection about recruit ranking methodologies and has absolutely nothing to do with self-interested spin.
It's also quite amazing how the literal instant the coach gets fired every guy who doesn't become a star under the next coach is suddenly "not a Big Ten player".
Are they physically transported to the MAC I wonder? Like did Chayce Crouch magically wake up in Bowling Green, OH on March 7, 2016 and have to find his way back to Champaign somehow?
Always fun times with you guys.
It's also quite amazing how the literal instant the coach gets fired every guy who doesn't become a star under the next coach is suddenly "not a Big Ten player".
Are they physically transported to the MAC I wonder? Like did Chayce Crouch magically wake up in Bowling Green, OH on March 7, 2016 and have to find his way back to Champaign somehow?
Always fun times with you guys.
I believe that when Lovie arrived, we did not have a starting offense and defense of Big 10 caliber players. We had a handful of solid players that left, but what upper classmen would you suggest he start at which positions? He was bereft of players at most positions. Some of the rankings were high, Megginson comes to mind, but didn't pan out as Power 5 talent. I can't put together 22 upperclassmen that Lovie could have started. I'm curious who you think could have started from what Lovie inherited?
Also, the culture was toxic. I agree with having burned the place down and started over. I don't mind being awful the last few years. I believe that we will see improvement next year and the following year. And if we don't see improvement, Lovie understands that it is time to go. he knows that he was brought here to win games and if he doesn't win more games, it will be time to go.
The difference between Lovie and other coaches that have performed equally bad is considerable. Lovie is a top 50 winning-est coach in NFL history. He also didn't come from college ranks. I think the first accolade is deserving of a longer leash than most other coaches. It also gives should allow him a little more time to figure out how to implement his system in college. I think 2019 and 2020 should be Lovie years as long as we don't see regression in 2019.
NBB1979
UIUCFAN1
- Springfield, IL
Come on Gritty - are you that Naive? Class rankings are inflated with number of recruits - if you don't understand that then what i'm about to post doesn't matter...
However - best classes from 2002 - 2019 in average per player (per 247)
2019 - .8673
2009 - .8561
2007 - .8496
2008 - .8454
2018 - .8381
2017 - .8371
So from that set of data we can extrapalate that Lovie has recruited 3 of the best 6 classes in the last 18 years.
2015 - .8345
2011 - .8317
2010 - .8304
2013 - .8294
2012 - .8279
2014 - .8225
2006 - .8210
2003 - .8171
2016 - .8126
2005 - .8111
2002 - .8111
2004 - .7861
TIFWIW - but I think recruiting has trended up with Lovie and I think it's clearly evidenced here.
Oh please. If we signed 25 guys with a lower rating you would be pointing to the lack of star power and how the numbers were skewed.
Are you asserting that there was a shortage of displeasure on this board about Beckman's recruiting? If you think this is hindsight, I'm sure there are old threads to prove otherwise. I count 3 NFL draft picks in 3 classes with a couple of other free agent signings. Only Smoot remained of those 3 picks for Lovie
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
But the number of good players you have is critical. 25 guys with a slightly lower average per recruit is way better than 12 with a slightly higher average.
In the end it's about building an entire roster. That's where this Team Talent Composite that 247 does now is really interesting. It's essentially a "recruiting class ranking" for the entire roster of teams.
Lots of interesting data to pore over there, but just as a sanity check, Cubit's team in 2015 was 60th in the country in talent, and Lovie in 2018 was 61st.
I expect we will make a jump when this comes out ahead of next year. I'm not exactly sure how it handles redshirting transfers so it will depend some on that. But that is the list we're trying to climb.
It goes back only to 2015 unfortunately, but here's the Illinois numbers:
2015: 60th nationally, 13th Big Ten (ahead of Minny)
2016: 64th nationally, 13th Big Ten (ahead of Purdue)
2017: 64th nationally, 13th Big Ten (ahead of Purdue)
2018: 61st nationally, 12th Big Ten (ahead of Purdue and Rutgers)
It would be a wonderful resource if they backfill their old recruiting data into this and develop it for basketball too, let's hope they do that.
I understand that his performance wasn’t great at the Elite 11, but most the guys that are invited to that could compete for the starting spot day 1 on campus. If it pans out we go with a different option at QB it is hard to imagine Isaiah not being the top slot reciever he is one of the top route runners and most elusive athletes in the class. I know Jeff Thomas is small and quick so he would be fit for the slot too, but I would put him on the outside and let him fly, Isaiah on short routes to get him space.
Ryllini
- Lombard
Should IW end up in the slot, I couldn't imagine another team in the county with as much speed as the four that could possibly be on the field at the same with Williams, Thomas, Corbin, and Cumby. Im not a pie in the sky type of guy, but man those are some fast playmakers to think about.
NBB1979
UIUCFAN1
- Springfield, IL
You realize that it’s impossible to sign 25 every season, right? 85 scholarships to give - some classes are larger than others ....
Edit: if that accounts for transfers - I’d expect a gigantic jump this year as Jeff Thomas and Luke Ford would have 2 of top 4 247 individual scores
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FeelYourPaign
- So Cal
Well said, totally different games played with the same ball
Impact players make the true difference, just look at Clemson. Their QB and WR although freshmen, are future NFLers. The number of players both on defense and offense who are playmakers at Illinois are increasingly with Lovie.
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
The problem with comparing recruiting classes over such a large period of time is that recruiting rankings are not standardized.
For example, you can look at the 2007 and 2019 recruiting classes and we catch a lucky break that one prospect in each recruiting class has the exact same composite score. Both Steve Matas (2007) and Casey Washington (2019) have a composite score of .8323. The difference is that Steve Matas was ranked as the 958th best recruit in 2007, where Casey Washington is the 1580th prospect.
For further comparison, the 958th best prospect in 2019 has a composite score of ~.8550, which is a significant leap from Matas' original composite score. This gets worse the further you look back (2004 commit Andre Young was the 977th ranked recruit that year and had a composite score of .7667! That's the equivalent of the 3200-3300th ranked recruit in 2019). Make those changes throughout the class and a lot of these classes will rise significantly.
Another issue? Some of the other classes have recruits that have no composite score at all (and I've tried to replicate the team average composite score with no success). From what I can tell, 247 ranks at least 3,200 recruits each recruiting class. Easy to assume that those recruits would have been ranked in the top 3,200 (probably top 2,000?).
NBB1979
UIUCFAN1
- Springfield, IL
this is a fair enough criticism - but i don't know of any other way to look at it. 1999-2002 information available on 247 were SIGNIFICANTLY lower... My main point is that Lovie is recruiting very well (especially last 2 seasons) ... I also noticed Jihad Ward was included as a transfer in his class - if you add transfers from this class - that number would go up even more...
Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
I am going to do a quick test:
Illinois gets:
Jeff Thomas .9807 (would be 3rd highest ever)
Luke Ford .9753 (would be 5th highest ever)
Marquez Beason .9613 (8th highest ever)
Isaiah Williams .9502 (9th highest ever)
Shammond Cooper .9027
Moses Okpala .8784
Keith Randolph .8739
Seth Coleman (going to get a jump in ranking)
Now do you read this and see "wow this is a major influx of talent to the current roster"?
Or do you read this and think, "eh, its not really different from what Beckman did. Man Lovie has been terrible and we are terrible and we are always going to be terrible so I feel terrible now I am going to make everyone else feel terrible."?
Just asking
Illinois gets:
Jeff Thomas .9807 (would be 3rd highest ever)
Luke Ford .9753 (would be 5th highest ever)
Marquez Beason .9613 (8th highest ever)
Isaiah Williams .9502 (9th highest ever)
Shammond Cooper .9027
Moses Okpala .8784
Keith Randolph .8739
Seth Coleman (going to get a jump in ranking)
Now do you read this and see "wow this is a major influx of talent to the current roster"?
Or do you read this and think, "eh, its not really different from what Beckman did. Man Lovie has been terrible and we are terrible and we are always going to be terrible so I feel terrible now I am going to make everyone else feel terrible."?
Just asking
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mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
Didn't mean my comment as a criticism, more of providing information from someone who has deep-dived into the recruiting rankings previously. You would have to standardized it, which would take a massive amount of work of comparing previous prospects to the current composite score rankings, then re-assessing their average composite score. Even then, you deal with prospects with no composite scores and other issues. Regarding Jihad Ward, 247/Rivals/ESPN/Scout has usually ranked JUCO transfers but not players from other four-year schools.
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Joel Goodson
- respect my decision™
Totally comparable.
You pick and choose to make your arguments. Yes, Zook had better athletes BUT he didn't recruit balanced classes. Recruit seven five stars but fail to bring ANY offensive linemen for two years and YOU ARE SCREWED. Numbers alone do not tell the tale.
Bringing in better numbers AND addressing positions of need AND bringing in balanced classes AND meeting academic requirements AND maintaining discipline (*cough* Urban Meyer *cough*) while improving year by year... that's a decent metric.
You mentioned not keeping coaches that clearly aren't doing well enough. If we ignore the fact that continuing the revolving door here is 100% guaranteed to fail, lets take your argument and look at Wisconsin like you suggested. Only lets look at the record of one Coach Barry Alvarez.
1990 1-10
1991 5-6
1992 5-6 (you would probably can him here, right?)
1993 10-1 (you kept him so you're a genius?)
1994 7-4 (uh-oh)
1995 4-5 (clear trend down so you can him, right?)
1996 8-5 (not bad but not great)
1997 8-5 (hmmmmmm)
1998 11-1
1999 10-2
2000 9-4
2001 5-7
2002 8-6
2003 7-6
2004 9-3
2005 10-3
You'd have probably canned Alvarez then in year three and missed some fantastic football. If you let Alvarez go after three recruiting classes after the end of a disappointing third year, does Wisconsin football ever become good or relevant? Does sticking with him and creating some stability and lead to their eventual success?
You said Lovie didn't inherit a dumpster fire? You saying that doesn't make it true. We didn't have enough players to field two teams in order to play a spring game AND he was brought in super late when few to no desirable assistants were available. We were crippled at QB and on the O-line; there was zero depth. Those are positions that are, arguably, important to a football team. Dude. It was a dumpster fire. I respectfully offer a different point of view and I think we can agree to disagree.
TLDR - I think you're wrong about many of the things you've stated with much of it completely out of context
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Wouldn't a better way to compare classes be to compare the rankings of this years class (12 commits, or 15 if you want to include the transfers) to the top 12 (or 15) for other years? This makes sense to me as a previous class may have had a better top 12, but the lower ratings of the rest of the recruits would pull the overall rating down.
NBB1979
UIUCFAN1
- Springfield, IL
Sure - you got time to do it? Knock yourself out - I’d love to see ;-)
Naw. Rod prefers what he already has.
to my way of thinking this isn't difficult
a few years ago the glass was broken and empty and there was little reason to believe we'd ever see water again
then we got ourselves a new glass and it was empty but I was damn happy to have a decent glass again
over the last three years or so we poured a little water into the glass and every now and then we spilled a bit
right now I'd say the glass is half full and I find ourselves at a crossroads; some people think the glass is half empty
next year I think we'll look at our glass and a bunch of us will think it's 75% full and things are looking up!
but there's still plenty of "fans" that will look at that glass and say, "yeah, but it's 25% empty"
we'll have to wait and see
*shrug*
a few years ago the glass was broken and empty and there was little reason to believe we'd ever see water again
then we got ourselves a new glass and it was empty but I was damn happy to have a decent glass again
over the last three years or so we poured a little water into the glass and every now and then we spilled a bit
right now I'd say the glass is half full and I find ourselves at a crossroads; some people think the glass is half empty
next year I think we'll look at our glass and a bunch of us will think it's 75% full and things are looking up!
but there's still plenty of "fans" that will look at that glass and say, "yeah, but it's 25% empty"
we'll have to wait and see
*shrug*
I don’t agree with gritty, but his points are a relevant voice around Illinois football and I want to make his point here (which I don’t agree with, but hear often).
He is saying that Lovie deserves this year. If he doesn’t qualify for a bowl, it’s because he didn’t meet his mark and it’s time to move on... and All Gritty has seen is a dumpster fire on the field, underperforming talent and a flailing coach, so he doesn’t have any belief that things will turn around. He would argue that Illinois fans are pretending the glass is half full and it is really only about 10% full. By most fans are scared to get a different glass.
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