Illinois Football Recruiting Thread

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I was typing on the phone and it wouldn't allow me to edit.

You said Illinois has never gotten top recruits out of the State yet 3 of the top QB's over the last ten years chose Illinois. O'toole and Baily with Lunt transferring to Illinois. I also named Juice and Mendenhall as top players from the state that chose Illinois. On the current team you have Green and Ricky Smalling that were top recruits in the State. Illinois also got the top RB from Mt Carmel who never made it too campus. There are more examples to eliminate your argument of Illinois kids and coaches not wanting to chose Illinois.
Okay ill give some data for you then.

From 2010-2021. I took the top 30 prospects in Illinois. That is 12 recruiting classes and 360 prospects. 33/360 choose the beloved which is 9.1%, so less than 10% of Illinois prep players ended up playing at Illinois, by far the lowest percentage from ANY power-five state. On the right is top 15 players in the state. As you can see ND, IOWA and NW all do better with top in-state kids than us and have been for 13 seasons. We don't recruit the state well and haven't since 2010, so maybe its time for a new strategy, that is my main point.

IllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre DameIllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre Dame
2010​
1​
1​
2​
1​
0​
2​
2010​
0​
1​
2​
0​
0​
2​
2011​
5​
2​
4​
1​
1​
1​
2011​
2​
1​
3​
0​
1​
1​
2012​
2​
3​
5​
1​
0​
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2012​
1​
1​
4​
0​
0​
0​
2013​
5​
4​
4​
0​
2​
1​
2013​
2​
2​
1​
0​
2​
0​
2014​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
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2014​
0​
3​
0​
0​
1​
2​
2015​
6​
5​
1​
2​
0​
3​
2015​
2​
1​
0​
1​
0​
3​
2016​
1​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
2016​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1​
2017​
6​
2​
3​
2​
0​
3​
2017​
3​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2​
2018​
3​
3​
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1​
2019​
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1​
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1​
1​
2020​
0​
5​
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2020​
0​
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1​
1​
2021​
0​
1​
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1​
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2021​
0​
1​
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4​
1​
2​
33​
35​
38​
17​
7​
18​
12​
17​
18​
7​
7​
16​
 
Last edited:
Okay ill give some data for you then.

From 2010-2021. I took the top 30 prospects in Illinois. That is 13 recruiting classes and 390 prospects. 33/390 choose the beloved which is .0846%, so less than 1% of Illinois prep players ended up playing at Illinois, by far the lowest percentage from ANY power-five state. On the right is top 15 players in the state. As you can see ND, IOWA and NW all do better with top in-state kids than us and have been for 13 seasons. We don't recruit the state well and haven't since 2010, so maybe its time for a new strategy, that is my main point.

IllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre DameIllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre Dame
2010​
1​
1​
2​
1​
0​
2​
2010​
0​
1​
2​
0​
0​
2​
2011​
5​
2​
4​
1​
1​
1​
2011​
2​
1​
3​
0​
1​
1​
2012​
2​
3​
5​
1​
0​
0​
2012​
1​
1​
4​
0​
0​
0​
2013​
5​
4​
4​
0​
2​
1​
2013​
2​
2​
1​
0​
2​
0​
2014​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
2​
2014​
0​
3​
0​
0​
1​
2​
2015​
6​
5​
1​
2​
0​
3​
2015​
2​
1​
0​
1​
0​
3​
2016​
1​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
2016​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1​
2017​
6​
2​
3​
2​
0​
3​
2017​
3​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2​
2018​
3​
3​
3​
2​
0​
1​
2018​
1​
2​
2​
0​
0​
1​
2019​
2​
3​
4​
2​
1​
1​
2019​
1​
2​
1​
2​
1​
1​
2020​
0​
5​
5​
0​
1​
1​
2020​
0​
3​
2​
0​
1​
1​
2021​
0​
1​
3​
6​
1​
2​
2021​
0​
1​
2​
4​
1​
2​
33​
35​
38​
17​
7​
18​
12​
17​
18​
7​
7​
16​
Great data, but your math teacher is frowning: 33/390 = 0.0846 = 8.46%.

Generally, I should think we would be slightly ahead of NW and significantly ahead of Iowa, if our world was "in order".

It is also interesting to note that for each year, the sums of each row of 6 schools is only about half of the totals (30 and 15). So, lots of kids going elsewhere, too, which would seem to be an opportunity.

The zeroes in 2020 and 2021 for us indicate a downward trend, which gets to the main issue at hand.
 
Last edited:
Likes: thunderwear
Great data, but your math teacher is frowning: 33/390 = 0.0846 = 8.46%.

Generally, I should think we would be slightly ahead of NW and significantly ahead of Iowa, if our world was "in order".

It is also interesting to note that for each year, the sums of each row of 6 schools is only about half of the totals (30 and 15). So, lots of kids going elsewhere, too, which would seem to be an opportunity.

The zeroes in 2020 and 2021 for us indicate a downward trend, which gets to the main issue at hand.
If you look at the data 23/25 players that went to Notre Dame or Michigan were in the top 15 in the state. They basically only come into Illinois to take the top talent out of Chicago. Iowa and Minn tend to work more in down state and take less top prospects and more depth. NW is solid and takes usually 2-5 kids each year in-state and then works the border states. Migh State and Ohio State have taken a lot of players as well, i should have included them. Migh state has around 30 and Ohio state around 18 within the same timeline.
 
Okay ill give some data for you then.

From 2010-2021. I took the top 30 prospects in Illinois. That is 12 recruiting classes and 360 prospects. 33/360 choose the beloved which is 9.1%, so less than 10% of Illinois prep players ended up playing at Illinois, by far the lowest percentage from ANY power-five state. On the right is top 15 players in the state. As you can see ND, IOWA and NW all do better with top in-state kids than us and have been for 13 seasons. We don't recruit the state well and haven't since 2010, so maybe its time for a new strategy, that is my main point.

IllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre DameIllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre Dame
2010​
1​
1​
2​
1​
0​
2​
2010​
0​
1​
2​
0​
0​
2​
2011​
5​
2​
4​
1​
1​
1​
2011​
2​
1​
3​
0​
1​
1​
2012​
2​
3​
5​
1​
0​
0​
2012​
1​
1​
4​
0​
0​
0​
2013​
5​
4​
4​
0​
2​
1​
2013​
2​
2​
1​
0​
2​
0​
2014​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
2​
2014​
0​
3​
0​
0​
1​
2​
2015​
6​
5​
1​
2​
0​
3​
2015​
2​
1​
0​
1​
0​
3​
2016​
1​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
2016​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1​
2017​
6​
2​
3​
2​
0​
3​
2017​
3​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2​
2018​
3​
3​
3​
2​
0​
1​
2018​
1​
2​
2​
0​
0​
1​
2019​
2​
3​
4​
2​
1​
1​
2019​
1​
2​
1​
2​
1​
1​
2020​
0​
5​
5​
0​
1​
1​
2020​
0​
3​
2​
0​
1​
1​
2021​
0​
1​
3​
6​
1​
2​
2021​
0​
1​
2​
4​
1​
2​
33​
35​
38​
17​
7​
18​
12​
17​
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7​
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16​
I understood your point. My point is this staff and previous staff have NEVER been all in with recruiting the State. Since you are Stat guy, how many of the kids you have listed actually had an Illinois offer? That's the number you should be reporting. Illinois didn't offer all 360 kids in your example. There is also another handful of kids that wanted to commit that Illinois wouldn't take. How can you land a kid when power 5 Coaches show the kids way more attention than Illinois. On top of that, if you are not the top 30 (per recruiting sources) in the state, you are not worth recruiting for Illinois.

Here is my example, in 2020 ESL had multiple top 30 kids in the State. So looking at the numbers you have above, going into the summer last year only two had Illinois offers (AJ and Powell). All 10 kids were presented to the staff and they watched them workout. Spraggins didn't receive an Illinois offer until blowing up while attending a Camp at Lindenwood. At this point you now have only offered 3. We now know Powells offer wasn't commit-able and technically neither was Spraggins. So basically AJ was the only kid offered and Jimbo was at the school more than Lovie. You tell me, how is that recruiting the State? Also what are the true numbers versus that BS chart you put up. You can't claim the state isn't loyal if you are not recruiting the State. That is the point. How many of the top 15 actual had Illinois offers? How many of those kids received offers after they had 20 plus offers from other schools? How can Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Michigan and several others offer kids within your State before you do? Who is doing the homework?

All I am asking is be honest with the narrative. Wanting to get kids from elsewhere is not an issue. Pretending like you want kids from Illinois but not actively recruiting them is the issue.
 
I'm just curious as to what other schools are doing for Illinois kids that's so much greater than what Illinois is doing or is able to do. This isn't a rhetorical question.
 
Are you saying you have this data for every state with a power 5 program?
A version of it yes. It’s hard to take thirty in some other states cause they don’t have 30 P5 level players. Also can be difficult when certain states have 2 P5 programs. I typically just take whatever the 30th players composite score is in Illinois and take a kid with that same ranking in another state and go up.
 
South Carolina
A version of it yes. It’s hard to take thirty in some other states cause they don’t have 30 P5 level players. Also can be difficult when certain states have 2 P5 programs. I typically just take whatever the 30th players composite score is in Illinois and take a kid with that same ranking in another state and go up.
Impressive, that's a lot of work.
 
We're at or near the bottom of the Big 10 in recruiting.

Indiana and NW have passed us. Look at the history of players from Illinois to U of IL to the NFL.

I like the coaches and the coaching and the uptick in wins; need better recruiting and it includes the state. we can't get skunked for top players in illinois, and that has happened.
 
I am generally on the side of the coaching staff and I have no issue with going out of state. I also would not blame a guy like Lovie that has been to the top of the football world if he holds the opinion that kids should be begging him, not the other way around. However, a portion of the head coaches responsibility is recruiting. It does dishearten me to read that Lovie doesn't make an effort to visit schools. All things considered with St. Louis, I would prefer the head coach of Illinois to be a common face at least within the perennial St. Louis schools. Chicago.....meh. Way more under the table politics that would be dealt with a lot easier once we are winning
 
Likes: KevinC

I'm being serious. It's not simply "winning." Arkansas has a top 30 class and Bielema drove that program to low-tiered mediocrity. North Carolina is getting guys and even Purdue. We're not talking about top programs like Alabama, Ohio State and LSU. Even Tennessee is making a resurgence in recruiting and they haven't been much of a program since Fulmer was the coach. So again I'm asking, what are these players getting or what do they perceive they can get elsewhere?
 
I understood your point. My point is this staff and previous staff have NEVER been all in with recruiting the State. Since you are Stat guy, how many of the kids you have listed actually had an Illinois offer? That's the number you should be reporting. Illinois didn't offer all 360 kids in your example. There is also another handful of kids that wanted to commit that Illinois wouldn't take. How can you land a kid when power 5 Coaches show the kids way more attention than Illinois. On top of that, if you are not the top 30 (per recruiting sources) in the state, you are not worth recruiting for Illinois.

Here is my example, in 2020 ESL had multiple top 30 kids in the State. So looking at the numbers you have above, going into the summer last year only two had Illinois offers (AJ and Powell). All 10 kids were presented to the staff and they watched them workout. Spraggins didn't receive an Illinois offer until blowing up while attending a Camp at Lindenwood. At this point you now have only offered 3. We now know Powells offer wasn't commit-able and technically neither was Spraggins. So basically AJ was the only kid offered and Jimbo was at the school more than Lovie. You tell me, how is that recruiting the State? Also what are the true numbers versus that BS chart you put up. You can't claim the state isn't loyal if you are not recruiting the State. That is the point. How many of the top 15 actual had Illinois offers? How many of those kids received offers after they had 20 plus offers from other schools? How can Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Michigan and several others offer kids within your State before you do? Who is doing the homework?

All I am asking is be honest with the narrative. Wanting to get kids from elsewhere is not an issue. Pretending like you want kids from Illinois but not actively recruiting them is the issue.
It's not a "bs chart", its a statistical representation of where kids from Illinois have been going, if that bothers you then okay. 290 players have been offered by Illinois since 2010, 33 have played for them. To me that isn't a great return on investment. If you wanna argue that lovie isn't engaged or is lazy with his recruiting style, then that is a fair argument. But to claim that top players want to play in Illinois is ridiculous and isn't supported by any data. We have had 3 coaching staffs since 2010 and the problems have persisted through all of them. I firmly believe that lovie originally wanted to recruit the state hence his 29 in-state offers and 8 in state commits in his first year. Once the excitement dropped and the loses pilled, his offers to instate kids and commits both dropped (6 commits in 2018 with 17 offers, 21 offers in 2019 with 5 commits, 0 commits with 19 offers in 2020, 0 commits with 20 offers in 2021). I think the way to fix things within the state is to win, it fixes all problems. Lovie shouldn't be out-recruited by jimbo at ESL, that is ridiculous and i agree.
 
I'm being serious. It's not simply "winning." Arkansas has a top 30 class and Bielema drove that program to low-tiered mediocrity. North Carolina is getting guys and even Purdue. We're not talking about top programs like Alabama, Ohio State and LSU. Even Tennessee is making a resurgence in recruiting and they haven't been much of a program since Fulmer was the coach. So again I'm asking, what are these players getting or what do they perceive they can get elsewhere?
The teams that have out recruited us in state have had recent success, loyal fanbases (except NU), great facilities and they aren't in a cornfield (except Iowa). Plus as I've said before, kids don't want to stay in Illinois so this is their chance to get out.
 
The teams that have out recruited us in state have had recent success, loyal fanbases (except NU), great facilities and they aren't in a cornfield (except Iowa). Plus as I've said before, kids don't want to stay in Illinois so this is their chance to get out.
You are 100% spot on, people want out of Illinois for multiple reason. This is obviously going to be true with high school kids as well.

" While the population of Illinois has increased nearly every year in the past five decades, the state’s population declined in 2014, 2015 and 2016. The state’s population shrank by 0.3% in 2016, the second fastest pace of decline of any state. A large share of the population loss was due to residents leaving the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metro area. "
 
Likes: KevinC
It's not a "bs chart", its a statistical representation of where kids from Illinois have been going, if that bothers you then okay. 290 players have been offered by Illinois since 2010, 33 have played for them. To me that isn't a great return on investment. If you wanna argue that lovie isn't engaged or is lazy with his recruiting style, then that is a fair argument. But to claim that top players want to play in Illinois is ridiculous and isn't supported by any data. We have had 3 coaching staffs since 2010 and the problems have persisted through all of them. I firmly believe that lovie originally wanted to recruit the state hence his 29 in-state offers and 8 in state commits in his first year. Once the excitement dropped and the loses pilled, his offers to instate kids and commits both dropped (6 commits in 2018 with 17 offers, 21 offers in 2019 with 5 commits, 0 commits with 19 offers in 2020, 0 commits with 20 offers in 2021). I think the way to fix things within the state is to win, it fixes all problems. Lovie shouldn't be out-recruited by jimbo at ESL, that is ridiculous and i agree.
I agree it represent where kids from Illinois are going. What I am calling BS is the notion that Illinois wanted all 290 players but they chose to go elsewhere. What is the true number of recruits they wanted that did not come? That number determines if the recruiting effort was wasted or not. Pretending money and effort was spent recruiting 290 players and only getting 33 is far from accurate. That is the only issue I have. I am guessing at least 150 of those offers were just verbal with absolutely no effort behind it. I can be wrong as I am not on the staff but I don't think I am far off.
 
Likes: thunderwear
It's not a "bs chart", its a statistical representation of where kids from Illinois have been going, if that bothers you then okay. 290 players have been offered by Illinois since 2010, 33 have played for them. To me that isn't a great return on investment. If you wanna argue that lovie isn't engaged or is lazy with his recruiting style, then that is a fair argument. But to claim that top players want to play in Illinois is ridiculous and isn't supported by any data. We have had 3 coaching staffs since 2010 and the problems have persisted through all of them. I firmly believe that lovie originally wanted to recruit the state hence his 29 in-state offers and 8 in state commits in his first year. Once the excitement dropped and the loses pilled, his offers to instate kids and commits both dropped (6 commits in 2018 with 17 offers, 21 offers in 2019 with 5 commits, 0 commits with 19 offers in 2020, 0 commits with 20 offers in 2021). I think the way to fix things within the state is to win, it fixes all problems. Lovie shouldn't be out-recruited by jimbo at ESL, that is ridiculous and i agree.
Yes, the staff should definitely invest resources in the state!

This is a good time To renew relationships. Starting HS football this year will not be easy. Money needed for the schools to play; will it be available? Are there fundraisers for sports (in general) in order to play)? Whitman, Lovie and other coaches should start building trust with respective sport coaches in the state, seeing what they will need to play/have a season. I think that’s how you start building. That would mean more in future.
 
Okay ill give some data for you then.

From 2010-2021. I took the top 30 prospects in Illinois. That is 12 recruiting classes and 360 prospects. 33/360 choose the beloved which is 9.1%, so less than 10% of Illinois prep players ended up playing at Illinois, by far the lowest percentage from ANY power-five state. On the right is top 15 players in the state. As you can see ND, IOWA and NW all do better with top in-state kids than us and have been for 13 seasons. We don't recruit the state well and haven't since 2010, so maybe its time for a new strategy, that is my main point.

IllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre DameIllinoisNWIowaMinnMighNotre Dame
2010​
1​
1​
2​
1​
0​
2​
2010​
0​
1​
2​
0​
0​
2​
2011​
5​
2​
4​
1​
1​
1​
2011​
2​
1​
3​
0​
1​
1​
2012​
2​
3​
5​
1​
0​
0​
2012​
1​
1​
4​
0​
0​
0​
2013​
5​
4​
4​
0​
2​
1​
2013​
2​
2​
1​
0​
2​
0​
2014​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
2​
2014​
0​
3​
0​
0​
1​
2​
2015​
6​
5​
1​
2​
0​
3​
2015​
2​
1​
0​
1​
0​
3​
2016​
1​
2​
4​
0​
0​
1​
2016​
0​
0​
0​
0​
0​
1​
2017​
6​
2​
3​
2​
0​
3​
2017​
3​
0​
1​
0​
0​
2​
2018​
3​
3​
3​
2​
0​
1​
2018​
1​
2​
2​
0​
0​
1​
2019​
2​
3​
4​
2​
1​
1​
2019​
1​
2​
1​
2​
1​
1​
2020​
0​
5​
5​
0​
1​
1​
2020​
0​
3​
2​
0​
1​
1​
2021​
0​
1​
3​
6​
1​
2​
2021​
0​
1​
2​
4​
1​
2​
33​
35​
38​
17​
7​
18​
12​
17​
18​
7​
7​
16​
Excellent chart. I'll have to go back and look at my old pre-season football magazines, but I thought we used to pull in a good 8-10 kids from the state pretty much every year since I started collecting them in the 70's, and I assume most if not all those kids were top 30 type prospects. If you were to just look at the top 10, I would guess our success rate was a good bit lower, probably 2-3 of the top 10 at best. Iowa and Wisky have always done pretty well in Illinois, but NW used to recruit at a MAC level or below. My how times have changed!
 
Excellent chart. I'll have to go back and look at my old pre-season football magazines, but I thought we used to pull in a good 8-10 kids from the state pretty much every year since I started collecting them in the 70's, and I assume most if not all those kids were top 30 type prospects. If you were to just look at the top 10, I would guess our success rate was a good bit lower, probably 2-3 of the top 10 at best. Iowa and Wisky have always done pretty well in Illinois, but NW used to recruit at a MAC level or below. My how times have changed!
I actually have some of that information for you. I had this stuff saved from another analysis I've been working on. Only 33 of our 70 instate commits since 2010 have been in the top 30 players in the state.
CommitsTXFLGAILMO
2010​
0​
6​
2​
13​
0​
2011​
1​
4​
2​
9​
0​
2012​
0​
5​
0​
6​
0​
2013​
1​
4​
0​
8​
1​
2014​
2​
3​
0​
4​
0​
2015​
2​
2​
1​
7​
0​
2016​
3​
6​
2​
3​
2​
2017​
0​
8​
0​
9​
2​
2018​
4​
10​
0​
6​
1​
2019​
4​
2​
0​
5​
4​
2020​
0​
7​
1​
0​
3​
2021​
1​
2​
2​
0​
1​
18​
59​
10​
70​
14​
OffersTXFLGAILMO
2010​
5​
19​
4​
10​
1​
2011​
8​
37​
9​
26​
0​
2012​
4​
51​
30​
27​
8​
2013​
23​
41​
12​
26​
8​
2014​
25​
40​
18​
38​
7​
2015​
25​
48​
31​
25​
11​
2016​
66​
56​
36​
32​
13​
2017​
68​
77​
49​
29​
7​
2018​
48​
71​
15​
17​
12​
2019​
48​
34​
14​
21​
18​
2020​
50​
60​
15​
19​
17​
2021​
33​
44​
22​
20​
8​
403​
578​
255​
290​
110​
 
Likes: KevinC
I actually have some of that information for you. I had this stuff saved from another analysis I've been working on. Only 33 of our 70 instate commits since 2010 have been in the top 30 players in the state.
CommitsTXFLGAILMO
2010​
0​
6​
2​
13​
0​
2011​
1​
4​
2​
9​
0​
2012​
0​
5​
0​
6​
0​
2013​
1​
4​
0​
8​
1​
2014​
2​
3​
0​
4​
0​
2015​
2​
2​
1​
7​
0​
2016​
3​
6​
2​
3​
2​
2017​
0​
8​
0​
9​
2​
2018​
4​
10​
0​
6​
1​
2019​
4​
2​
0​
5​
4​
2020​
0​
7​
1​
0​
3​
2021​
1​
2​
2​
0​
1​
18​
59​
10​
70​
14​
OffersTXFLGAILMO
2010​
5​
19​
4​
10​
1​
2011​
8​
37​
9​
26​
0​
2012​
4​
51​
30​
27​
8​
2013​
23​
41​
12​
26​
8​
2014​
25​
40​
18​
38​
7​
2015​
25​
48​
31​
25​
11​
2016​
66​
56​
36​
32​
13​
2017​
68​
77​
49​
29​
7​
2018​
48​
71​
15​
17​
12​
2019​
48​
34​
14​
21​
18​
2020​
50​
60​
15​
19​
17​
2021​
33​
44​
22​
20​
8​
403​
578​
255​
290​
110​
Nice chart. I should not have called it a BS Chart. I apologize for that.
That being said, from your chart, the staff has a 24% effective rate for Illinois and 4% effective for Ga but it makes more sense to focus effort in Georgia. 4% for Texas and 10% for Florida. I am truly not understanding the logic. Your charts says the staff love Florida and Texas twice as much as Illinois however walk away with pretty much nothing. Meanwhile the instate school shows no loyalty but produce the most commitments per offer. I am back to missing your point again.
 
Likes: thunderwear
Chicago, IL
I feel like the last 50 or so posts complaining about in state recruiting and the coaching staffs work ethic should be in another thread.

I think this thread should be news about committed recruits, or recruits close to commiting. But that's just me........
 
Last edited:
Cincinnati, OH
I feel like the last 50 or so posts complaining about in state recruiting and the coaching staffs work ethic should be in another thread.

I think this thread should be news about committed recruits, or recruits close to commiting. But that's just me........
If this is our standard, we would have went from Pearl Harbor Day to a couple days before Cinco de Mayo without a single post of positive news in this thread.
 
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