Illinois Football Recruiting Thread
- Status
You are correct in that our class underperformed. This is even worse when you consider our standing prior to the season. The interest from recruits was high.
what caused this? My assertion would be this is because the season was shaping up to get a coach fired before Wisconsin. In that time, we lost mookie cooper, Johnson, moore, Arinze, St. John, Spraggins, mclaughlin, Singleton, van ness, and ultimately Doyle. This equates to all of our top recruits. Would we have signed them, who knows. But did losing to emu followed by a should have won against Nebraska and a whooping by Minnesota affect our chances. I would guess yes.
The question is, can we land a good class in 2021? This is key to Lovies tenure. Failing to win the first 5 or 6 could really hurt us.
good, realistic analysis.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Olin is a fan of Lovie....maybe got a chance here?
illini80
- Forgottonia
WBBM sports report after the super bowl mentioned Allegretti. Mentioned that he was a graduate of Lincoln-Way East High School. No mention of U of I. That was no accident.
My take:
1) I do not think we underperformed in recruiting. As far as I could see (based on 247 numbers) 2019 was an aberration (in recruiting) and the portal (I do not include this under "recruiting") really bailed us out. I think 2020 has brought us back on the ground.
I happen to think we overperformed last season. (Which is why I question our "consistency" moving forward.) (Also, as an aside, I think other teams will be really prepared for us here on out. We could across another WI/MSU, but I really doubt that would happen.)
2) Even if we had signed all those good players, we would have been more promising or confident next year and hopefully, win consistently the following years. The reason I say this is that even IF we sign a great class, that class has to outdo other B10 West on the field - who have been recruiting good classes for ages. I would not expect 1 or even 2 good IL classes to consistently outperform 4 good classes at other (B10) schools. Can it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Not likely.
3) Win/Loss matters. Part of the culture. However, consistently having W > L is based on recruiting and coaching. The past few years record speaks for itself. The future? Well, the future will let us know
Last edited:
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
How would this chart look different if instead of average composite score by class (which of course takes class size into account), it took average recruit rating? I imagine we wouldn't look so bad. Would love to see it include average ratings of transfers also in with each class, though not sure how they would classify them by class (would take a lot of work to figure out who'd have to sit out each year versus who didn't, etc. for each team). At any rate, I don't put a lot of stock in that chart given how small our class was this year.
That said, I do agree with most on here that recruiting absolutely needs to improve for us to continue to be competitive and get us where we want to be.
Deleted member 656517
D
Guest
Can’t say for certain but I’d imagine most writers and editors of Chicago papers went to Northwestern’s journalism school
B10 West Approx:
Good chart, bombayIllini.
Illinois recruiting managed to essentially fall out of the basement this year. They need to figure this out and quick. As others have said, there's risk of a big fall off after 2020/2021 seasons. Lovie pulled himself out of the fire this year with getting 6 wins and a bowl, so it can be done, let's hope that happens here in recruiting.
Academically rigorous schools like Northwestern, Duke and Wake, to name a few, seem to know exactly what type of kids to get that fit both their program and school. From there, they're consistently good at developing who they get, which translates to relative success on the field. Lovie and staff could learn a few things from those schools and their blueprints in my view. There is no debating there is massive room for improvement in the recruiting program for Illinois.
Illinois recruiting managed to essentially fall out of the basement this year. They need to figure this out and quick. As others have said, there's risk of a big fall off after 2020/2021 seasons. Lovie pulled himself out of the fire this year with getting 6 wins and a bowl, so it can be done, let's hope that happens here in recruiting.
Academically rigorous schools like Northwestern, Duke and Wake, to name a few, seem to know exactly what type of kids to get that fit both their program and school. From there, they're consistently good at developing who they get, which translates to relative success on the field. Lovie and staff could learn a few things from those schools and their blueprints in my view. There is no debating there is massive room for improvement in the recruiting program for Illinois.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
So, everyone improved, except us. I know, small class size, but still.
In my opinion people are sticking their head in the sand using small class size as an excuse. Average ranking should go up if you are recruiting for a small class.
I've said it before, we will know where we really stand when it's time to fill a large class
Because average star power should also be considered when looking at our recruiting rankings (class size does have a massive effect), here are the average star ratings laid out similar to how bombay did it above.
Here are the year by year calculations (of note, these calculations and the ones from the tweet above are factoring in 2 classes not recruited by Lovie...food for thought)
Just for fun, I figured what adding Jadon Thompson would have done to our class had our admissions not been so stringent.
Random thoughts:
1. We haven't been the worst on average though Purdue will probably pass us up as 2015 falls off and 2021 is added in. Jeff Brohm is a helluva recruiter apparently.
2. We have increased slightly, though I'm not sure how much "rating inflation" plays into that or how many actual decimal points it accounts for.
3. It's hard to trust even these numbers as here are the lowest rated recruits from the 2017 class (which is Lovie's lowest star average class). Let me know if how many of these guys are playing (or played) like a sub .82 recruit since they were all rated as such: Blake Hayes, Jamal Woods, Dawson Degroot, Bennet Williams, Nate Hobbs and Isaiah Gay.
4. Losing Thompson absolutely sucked.
Here are the year by year calculations (of note, these calculations and the ones from the tweet above are factoring in 2 classes not recruited by Lovie...food for thought)
Just for fun, I figured what adding Jadon Thompson would have done to our class had our admissions not been so stringent.
Random thoughts:
1. We haven't been the worst on average though Purdue will probably pass us up as 2015 falls off and 2021 is added in. Jeff Brohm is a helluva recruiter apparently.
2. We have increased slightly, though I'm not sure how much "rating inflation" plays into that or how many actual decimal points it accounts for.
3. It's hard to trust even these numbers as here are the lowest rated recruits from the 2017 class (which is Lovie's lowest star average class). Let me know if how many of these guys are playing (or played) like a sub .82 recruit since they were all rated as such: Blake Hayes, Jamal Woods, Dawson Degroot, Bennet Williams, Nate Hobbs and Isaiah Gay.
4. Losing Thompson absolutely sucked.
Deleted member 29907
D
Guest
Also can't say for certain, but I wonder how many kids these days can spell newspaper or even know what one is - unless they are in an article and likely that's the only thing they read.
Well...based on the facts..no one can be satisfied with being last in the West in recruiting.... I am sure a visit from the Bobs is soon to come.
Last edited:
mhuml32
- Cincinnati, OH
And it would be a pain in the @$% to calculate, as it's a constantly moving target. For example, it's fairly thin earlier in the list:
186th ranked recruit
2015 - Gabe Megginson - .9218
2020 - Caziah Holmes - .9237
.9237 would the 177th ranked recruit in 2015, only a 9-spot bump...but when you get farther down the list, it grows substantially
923rd ranked recruit
2015 - Jimmy Fitzgerald - .8484
2020 - Khary Crump - .8564
To give you an example of that gap, .8564 would be the 733rd ranked recruit in 2015, which is almost a 200-spot leap in the recruiting rankings.
That is a very well understood relationship (IF I understand you).
It is always MUCH MORE easier for a lower graded player to make bigger leap than a higher graded player to make a similar leap.
Here is the graph (since 50 years at least):
So, let us assume you have a kid or grand kid that is pulling F (0). For that kid to pull a C (0.8 in this graph) requires a relatively small increase in effort (0.0 to 0.20 on the X-axis)(stop watch TV for 25%, or the like).
But if the same kid were to be pulling a B (0.9), then to get to an A (cloase to 1, not 1) requires a relatively large effort (from 0.5 to close to 1.0 on the X-axis).
So, actually, if a coach (FB/BB) were to recruit a C level player (say a 2* or low 3* or 800-900 in FB) it is much easier to coach that kid up and show tangible results.
However, the question I have is can that same coach recruit a mid 4* or above kid and coach that kid to at least maintain that level or better still coach that kid up.
I am betting recruiters that consistently recruit 3* and coach them up cannot recruit a 4*+ and even maintain that level, leave alone coach them up. And, if a caoch can coach up a 4*+ kid, then the question is how come that coach cannot recruit at that level (4*+)?
I think these are great criticisms. I don’t disagree with any of them. I think they are each competing narratives and only time will tell what is correct.
A few things to consider to add complexity to the arguments
1. The difference between the number 1 and 2 recruit in the nation is not possible to decipher. The difference between 1 and 1000 is more palpable. The question is, to What extent is there a difference? How far do the gaps need to be have any level of confidence in the ranking differential? Will a grade of 84 translate to be better than a grade of 83? What factors does this depend on? System fit? Work ethic? Growth? I would venture to bet a team of 5* (Alabama) will likely be better than a team of 3* (Illinois). But will a team with a class average grade of 83 be better than a a grade of 84? I’m not so sure I buy the rankings are that precise. Heck, a person that doesn’t exist got a 3* ranking.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.awfu...-catfished-their-way-to-a-3-star-ranking.html
The argument that this is all we have to go by doesn’t work. Although a 5* is likely Going to be better than a 3*, I don’t buy that an 83 is worse than an 84. I’m not saying our 83 is better than another teams 84, I just don’t buy there’s a statistically significant difference. I can tell you with near certainty the confidence intervals overlap.
2. How do we deal with past staff assessment and ability to coach up? I don’t have a way to judge talent assessment for system fit or ability to coach up. I’m not arguing that these are in our favor. But how do we address them? For example, Nate Hobbs was ranked a 77 by 247 and his composite was 81. He had 1 p5 offer, it was us. Statistically speaking, his 81 brought down our clasS ranking. In the 17 class, the other recruits that brought down our average were: Blake hayEs, woods, bennet Williams, and Isaiah gay. The 18 class, was brought down by ware, Edwin Carter, syd brown, and Daniel barker. The 19 class was brought down by: Witherspoon, Barnes, Washington, and moore.
did we coach them up? Did we have better scouting? Were the rankings wrong? Or are they just low/middle tier 2* or 3* recruits? How do we account for their impact? Do other schools get similar production from low tier recruits? Was it bad rankings?
3. Given the staffs ability with low tier talent, does this higher tier talent fro the current class mean we will get even more production? I’m not super excited about the class. But I’m also not disappointed. Lineman are hard to rank, and I think we have some gems. Frenchie, Spann, Riggins, Newton, Cooper, Gardner. Those are solid program building recruits. The OL is hard to tell, but we got some big ones. Will it translate, will the staff be able to develop them? I believe we will.
To be fair, im not arguing a point. I’m just thinking out loud. ultimately, considering we lost to eastern Michigan, I’m glad with where we ended the class. Add back cj Dixon and Thompson, and our class looks very consistent with the big ten classes. Can we coach them up? Did we find gems? Only time will tell. I don’t see an end to the need for transfers anytime soon. But I think the staff will be able to find and utilize strong transfers. I also think we need to improve with recruiting. We aren’t great, but the staff has recruited a team that can compete in the big ten. And I’d be happy to qualify for a few more bowls. To me, that’s the next step in the rebuild, Minnesota has qualified for roughly 15 bowls in the last 20 years and only recently have they even been decent. Being consistent, adding Better talent and depth is what we need. The rankings for incoming class is better than rankings of those that left. The classes are balancing. Ultimately, I thinkthis will translate as long as the 21 class has better talent than the class of 17 graduates.
A few things to consider to add complexity to the arguments
1. The difference between the number 1 and 2 recruit in the nation is not possible to decipher. The difference between 1 and 1000 is more palpable. The question is, to What extent is there a difference? How far do the gaps need to be have any level of confidence in the ranking differential? Will a grade of 84 translate to be better than a grade of 83? What factors does this depend on? System fit? Work ethic? Growth? I would venture to bet a team of 5* (Alabama) will likely be better than a team of 3* (Illinois). But will a team with a class average grade of 83 be better than a a grade of 84? I’m not so sure I buy the rankings are that precise. Heck, a person that doesn’t exist got a 3* ranking.
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.awfu...-catfished-their-way-to-a-3-star-ranking.html
The argument that this is all we have to go by doesn’t work. Although a 5* is likely Going to be better than a 3*, I don’t buy that an 83 is worse than an 84. I’m not saying our 83 is better than another teams 84, I just don’t buy there’s a statistically significant difference. I can tell you with near certainty the confidence intervals overlap.
2. How do we deal with past staff assessment and ability to coach up? I don’t have a way to judge talent assessment for system fit or ability to coach up. I’m not arguing that these are in our favor. But how do we address them? For example, Nate Hobbs was ranked a 77 by 247 and his composite was 81. He had 1 p5 offer, it was us. Statistically speaking, his 81 brought down our clasS ranking. In the 17 class, the other recruits that brought down our average were: Blake hayEs, woods, bennet Williams, and Isaiah gay. The 18 class, was brought down by ware, Edwin Carter, syd brown, and Daniel barker. The 19 class was brought down by: Witherspoon, Barnes, Washington, and moore.
did we coach them up? Did we have better scouting? Were the rankings wrong? Or are they just low/middle tier 2* or 3* recruits? How do we account for their impact? Do other schools get similar production from low tier recruits? Was it bad rankings?
3. Given the staffs ability with low tier talent, does this higher tier talent fro the current class mean we will get even more production? I’m not super excited about the class. But I’m also not disappointed. Lineman are hard to rank, and I think we have some gems. Frenchie, Spann, Riggins, Newton, Cooper, Gardner. Those are solid program building recruits. The OL is hard to tell, but we got some big ones. Will it translate, will the staff be able to develop them? I believe we will.
To be fair, im not arguing a point. I’m just thinking out loud. ultimately, considering we lost to eastern Michigan, I’m glad with where we ended the class. Add back cj Dixon and Thompson, and our class looks very consistent with the big ten classes. Can we coach them up? Did we find gems? Only time will tell. I don’t see an end to the need for transfers anytime soon. But I think the staff will be able to find and utilize strong transfers. I also think we need to improve with recruiting. We aren’t great, but the staff has recruited a team that can compete in the big ten. And I’d be happy to qualify for a few more bowls. To me, that’s the next step in the rebuild, Minnesota has qualified for roughly 15 bowls in the last 20 years and only recently have they even been decent. Being consistent, adding Better talent and depth is what we need. The rankings for incoming class is better than rankings of those that left. The classes are balancing. Ultimately, I thinkthis will translate as long as the 21 class has better talent than the class of 17 graduates.
Man, you guys with your .8431 vs .8579 ranking arguments are really picking nits aren't you??? I can't tell you how many different posts I've read on both the football AND basketball forums over the years how once you get past a certain point in the rankings the differences are minuscule, for a plethora of reasons, and not worth debating..... I mean the difference between a 100 and 150 player in basketball or and 800 vs 1000 in football are purely subjective and once you factor in a teams needs/style/class balance/evaluation skills/etc... those numbers don't mean squat! Personally I'm willing to give both coaching staffs enough credit to coach up a player an additional .0148 in order to make up that HUGE discrepancy you all are worried about......
Last edited:
No problem! I had some time at work.
And nope, actually I’m not even stationed at a C-130 base anymore.
A couple 4 star players could be that 0.0148 difference. We may be splitting hairs if trying to differentiate middle of the pack guys, but the lower average is also a symptom of no headline players (like the couple we had last year). Tell me you aren't concerned that we landed 0 big fish
Deleted member 654622
D
Guest
I was really hoping to not be in the position of needing some high impact transfers to make this class acceptable again. I do not think it is realistic to expect to land that talent every year. However, here we are. If we can get a DT and a O lineman in the portal at the very least, I will be complacent. If there really is a one year delay between on field success and recruiting success then this is the essential make or break year for Lovie. He needs to make a bowl game, and bring in a top half of the B1G recruiting class. The sheer size of that class should bump us to middle already. We need to bring in some top end talent. I am talking 4ish 4 star recruits. He has made a lot of changes in his coaching staff the last few years. It needs to pay off now or we need to start looking.
Let's hope we can start filling this next class early. Already got a QB
Let's hope we can start filling this next class early. Already got a QB
I do not, nor will I ever, claim to be some big insider. That said, the one "big fish" that I, for a variety of weird reasons, actually had some insight into why he did not commit here chose elsewhere based on nothing involving our recruiting/coaches/record/etc. He was never going to play for a B1G school. Honestly, the fact that for a few days in November we were actually his first choice, gives me more hope than a lot of you on this board have.
I'm willing to admit that it may be a false hope.
- Status