What I'm saying is net/net we benefited from a lot of lucky breaks last year. We were lucky MSU fell apart in the 4th quarter, we were lucky Chryst forgot he had a Heisman caliber running back at the end of the UW game, we got lucky PU was down to their third string QB in a rainstorm that helped us greatly, we were lucky Nebraska didn't beat us by 40 given how badly they outplayed us. I can't really point to any offsetting bad breaks - it's not like we outplayed EMU; they were a better team that day. Those breaks could very well go against us next year and we end up 3-9 or 4-8; I'm not sure our talent makes us much if any better than that.
While MSU may have played sub-par or made bad decisions, we still had to make the plays to win. We were down, what 28-3 or something like that going into the 4th quarter? That's a VERY tough hill to climb regardless of how bad the other team plays down the stretch. We beat them because we called a better game and MSU didn't execute. It wasn't luck that caused Bhe Bhe to make play after play. And it wasn't luck that caused Peters to throw a dart to Daniel Barker for the win.
Chryst didn't forget he had a Heisman caliber running back, but he did just see said running back fumble to give Illinois the ball the drive before. Maybe he was trying to keep the ball away from gang tackles (knowing our ability to force fumbles) and was trying to get it out into space where his receivers could catch it and fall down. (or at least only be tackled by 1 or 2 guys) Hindsight is 20/20.
Weather helped us against PU but only because Jeff Brohm refused adjust his own game for it. Which was basically the exact opposite of the NW game.
We weren't lucky against Nebraska because we forced like 5 turnovers. We FORCED the turnovers. That's not luck (at least not always) and it kept us in a game where we were a poor match to their offensive style. But that is exactly what Lovie tries to do with his defense.
Anyway, this is a long post and it's basically to re-emphasize the point that we earned 6 wins. We didn't luck into them...lucking into a win is sort of like that Fresno State offensive lineman catching a deflected pass during the 2pt conversion and falling into the end-zone for a win. That's about as close to luck as you can get.
We earned 6 wins, and 6 teams earned wins against us.
Here is an expert from the post Northwestern game write-up by Robert from Illiniboard. It's kind of a nice depiction of the mirror image season we had with our wins and losses. Sure we made plays in some games, but we didn't execute in others. That's what happens to 6-6 teams.
"Wet games where one team dominated the line of scrimmage: Purdue win, Northwestern loss
One team clearly dominated the other team in a complete mismatch: Akron win, Minnesota loss
Field goal in the NEZ of Memorial Stadium decides the outcome: Wisconsin win, Eastern Michigan loss
Illinois has the ball, down four, driving for the winning score: Michigan State win, Nebraska loss
"That game really shouldn't have been that close for the favorite": 8-point UConn win, 9-point Iowa loss
"Whoa, this game is tight" and then two quick turnovers and the game is over: Rutgers win, Michigan loss
There's even symmetry with the schedule. Two wins, then four losses, then four wins, then two losses."
"https://www.illiniboard.com/2019/11/30/whooped/