Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (April-June 2016)

[TownieMatt]

Ha, they kind of are. I think Loren Tate says it best actually. The star ranking is a pretty good indicator of what type of prospect you're getting, but it's not fool proof, and once they step foot on campus you see exactly what type of kid you got and the stars no longer matter.

I don't even mean in terms of talent. I just mean that different evaluators rank kids differently. A three star there is a four star here. A five star here is a four star there. It's pretty rare for kids outside the top 20 or so to be rated equally across the board. Yet kids usually get labeled a "3 Star Prospect" or whatever it may be.

 

[Bomb Squad 217]

I don't even mean in terms of talent. I just mean that different evaluators rank kids differently. A three star there is a four star here. A five star here is a four star there. It's pretty rare for kids outside the top 20 or so to be rated equally across the board. Yet kids usually get labeled a "3 Star Prospect" or whatever it may be.

Yeah it's really only the top 10 or so that you can bet on. Even then, they don't all pan out. Anywhere from 25ish to 100 can all be relatively similar players. A lot of stock needs to be put into where they went to school, are they well coached, do they have a former pro father/mother, level of competition like great Midwest competition vs the soft players from the south. Etc.

 

[midastouch11]

I don't even mean in terms of talent. I just mean that different evaluators rank kids differently. A three star there is a four star here. A five star here is a four star there. It's pretty rare for kids outside the top 20 or so to be rated equally across the board. Yet kids usually get labeled a "3 Star Prospect" or whatever it may be.

I agree for sure. There is a much bigger difference in football because the kids rarely square off, but there is still a range in basketball. Although I think there are decently clear divisions inside a top 100. Even among 5-star prospects, you have your Jabari Parker's that could be drafted in the lottery out of high school, and then you have Carlton Bragg's that are crazy talented but going to take a couple years to round out their game.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Scout is now up to #130 getting 4 stars and everybody gets a participation ribbon.

 

[FT35]

You forgot Brian cook. Was frank a blue chip?

I stole this from one of Robert's LLUOI articles (for DJ Williams), but here are the RSCIs for Top 100 recruits since Frank Williams committed:

#19 Dee Brown
#20 Brian Cook
#21 Frank Williams
#24 Jereme Richmond
#28 Richard McBride
#29 Meyers Leonard
#33 Quentin Snider
#35 DJ Richardson
#36 Alex Legion
#38 DJ Williams
#40 Leron Black
#48 Deron Williams
#49 Brandon Paul
#49 Brian Carlwell
#53 Brian Randle
#57 Kendrick Nunn
#62 Roger Powell
#65 Mike Shaw
#66 Myke Henry
#69 Tracy Abrams
#70 Malcolm Hill
#71 Demitri McCamey
#76 Crandall Head
#77 Shaun Pruitt
#77 Nick Smith
#78 James Augustine
#78 Nnanna Egwu
#86 Aaron Spears

 

[mhuml32]

I stole this from one of Robert's LLUOI articles (for DJ Williams), but here are the RSCIs for Top 100 recruits since Frank Williams committed:

#19 Dee Brown
#20 Brian Cook
#21 Frank Williams
#24 Jereme Richmond
#28 Richard McBride
#29 Meyers Leonard
#33 Quentin Snider
#35 DJ Richardson
#36 Alex Legion
#38 DJ Williams
#40 Leron Black
#48 Deron Williams
#49 Brandon Paul
#49 Brian Carlwell
#53 Brian Randle
#57 Kendrick Nunn
#62 Roger Powell
#65 Mike Shaw
#66 Myke Henry
#69 Tracy Abrams
#70 Malcolm Hill
#71 Demitri McCamey
#76 Crandall Head
#77 Shaun Pruitt
#77 Nick Smith
#78 James Augustine
#78 Nnanna Egwu
#86 Aaron Spears

This does make me realize that after the top 50 it becomes a real crapshoot.

 

[WesterveltVictoryCigar]

#33 Quentin Snider

 

[Newman]

Scout is now up to #130 getting 4 stars and everybody gets a participation ribbon.

ESPN goes up past 180.

 

[TCTORNADO]

ESPN goes up past 180.

Rivals @ 110.

 

[TCTORNADO]

DJWilliams RSCI:

#38 to #62 to #78 (final)

 

[urbanite]

DJWilliams RSCI:

#38 to #62 to #78 (final)

Yeah, the numbers in that list for the 2014 and 2015 classes are not final rankings.

#37 Jalen Coleman-Lands
#37 Quentin Snider
#46 Leron Black

 

[TownieMatt]

Yeah it's really only the top 10 or so that you can bet on. Even then, they don't all pan out. Anywhere from 25ish to 100 can all be relatively similar players. A lot of stock needs to be put into where they went to school, are they well coached, do they have a former pro father/mother, level of competition like great Midwest competition vs the soft players from the south. Etc.

I've said this a million times on this board, but I'll say it again. The first thing I look at with a recruit is what schools have offered. College coaches are the best evaluators of talent, not the guys that decide how many stars a kid gets. That's especially true for kids that aren't in big markets or don't play on one of the high level AAU circuits (EYBL, etc.).

Take Mike Finke for example. According to the recruiting sites, he was a 3-star (barely a top 200 player), but he had offers from Iowa, Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Illinois. Conversely, take someone like Ben Coupet from Simeon. He's ranked about the same as Finke was by the recruiting sites, but his best offer is probably DePaul.

Trust the offers, not the stars.

 

[FT35]

Yeah, the numbers in that list for the 2014 and 2015 classes are not final rankings.

#37 Jalen Coleman-Lands
#37 Quentin Snider
#46 Leron Black

Correct. The post is from November of 2013.

 

[TCTORNADO]

I've said this a million times on this board, but I'll say it again. The first thing I look at with a recruit is what schools have offered. College coaches are the best evaluators of talent, not the guys that decide how many stars a kid gets. That's especially true for kids that aren't in big markets or don't play on one of the high level AAU circuits (EYBL, etc.).

Take Mike Finke for example. According to the recruiting sites, he was a 3-star (barely a top 200 player), but he had offers from Iowa, Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Illinois. Conversely, take someone like Ben Coupet from Simeon. He's ranked about the same as Finke was by the recruiting sites, but his best offer is probably DePaul.

Trust the offers, not the stars.

A lot of offers are not commitable, a lot are falsified and offers are fluid.

 

[Adnarel]

This does make me realize that after the top 50 it becomes a real crapshoot.

No kidding. Augie and Nnanna both #78? Whew.

 

[Bomb Squad 217]

I've said this a million times on this board, but I'll say it again. The first thing I look at with a recruit is what schools have offered. College coaches are the best evaluators of talent, not the guys that decide how many stars a kid gets. That's especially true for kids that aren't in big markets or don't play on one of the high level AAU circuits (EYBL, etc.).

Take Mike Finke for example. According to the recruiting sites, he was a 3-star (barely a top 200 player), but he had offers from Iowa, Wisconsin, Kansas State, and Illinois. Conversely, take someone like Ben Coupet from Simeon. He's ranked about the same as Finke was by the recruiting sites, but his best offer is probably DePaul.

Trust the offers, not the stars.

That's not a bad process at all. Trusting the offers, more times than not, in sure will yield better results. There's always going to be a couple low ranked kids with minimal offers who explode into the college scene and everyone will blame the coach for missing that eval and all that blah blah. Then everyone uses that example as a reason to argue every kid they think has potential but has minimal offers and is unranked.

 

[illini8507]

A lot of offers are not commitable, a lot are falsified and offers are fluid.

And if a kid commits as a sophomore he's going to have a lot less offers than even a marginal talent who waits it out til the spring of his senior year...

 

[Foggy Notion]

actually, their last rankings were Richmond 4* and Meyers 5*

Richmond was a McDonald's All American.

 

[Johnny Lawrence]

That 2010 class ended up with three 4 stars on Rivals: Richmond, Leonard, and Head. Richmond had been a five star at one point, but he dropped down.

I know it's subjective but how is a McDonald's All American not a 5 star? Especially if 4 stars are reaching back to the 150 range.

 

[TheBucket]

What does RSCI stand for? Where would Tilmon fall on their rankings?

On ESPN Top 60, he's ranked 28. On 247 Sports, he's ranked 14.

 

[illini8507]

What does RSCI stand for? Where would Tilmon fall on their rankings?

On ESPN Top 60, he's ranked 28. On 247 Sports, he's ranked 14.

Rsci is the average of all the different recruiting services; scout, rivals, espn, 247, etc

 

[IlliniRSE]

Recruiting Services Consensus Index

 

[TheBucket]

Rsci is the average of all the different recruiting services; scout, rivals, espn, 247, etc

Got it... so here is what I have learned on Tilmon:

Verbal Commits - 17
ESPN - 28
Scout - 10
Rivals - 16
247 - 14

Average = 17. Obviously that is subject to change and also depends on what other recruit's averages are. But he'd top the list as of this moment...

 

[FT35]

I know it's subjective but how is a McDonald's All American not a 5 star? Especially if 4 stars are reaching back to the 150 range.

Marcus Griffin was a McDonald's All American. Sergio Mclain was Mr. Basketball in Illinois for the same year but was not a McDonald's All American. I'm sure they have to look at positions and how each player fits on the roster, regardless of their ranking.

 

[Obelix]

Marcus Griffin was a McDonald's All American. Sergio Mclain was Mr. Basketball in Illinois for the same year but was not a McDonald's All American. I'm sure they have to look at positions and how each player fits on the roster, regardless of their ranking.

Griff was ranked higher than Sergio, so his selection was not due to position. Sergio got Mr. Basketball because he was considered the leader and glue to that team, not so much because of his ranking.