Illiniwek06
- N of I-80
Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (August 2018)
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I believe that same year Pickett committed pretty early as well, can't find the info on 247 since he obviously later asked out.
Edit: Found it, he committed in January.
Illwinsagain
- Cary, IL
Not the shipping, but the taxes!
That also was on Thomas.
Not to pick on this post specifically, but there have been a couple of posts here about coaches that have raised my eyebrows a bit. Kruger's last year at Florida was rough, but context is important. Florida had all of three NCAA appearances in its history prior to Kruger's arrival, two of which were later vacated. He'd also put together a very solid stretch at K-State prior to that (though there have been rumblings about just how it came to pass that Mitch Richmond wound up in Manhattan, but whatever).
There was also a post calling Frank Martin's tenure at South Carolina 'pathetic' (I think), but that overlooks the fact that USC had exactly one season above .500 in the SEC since the turn of the millennium prior to his arrival. Both of those guys started in shoulder-deep holes at programs with little traditional appeal and wound up in the Final Four.
I don't think that it's a coincidence that both posters have also been among the loudest to complain about Underwood's performance in his first season here. I can understand dissatisfaction at the results he posted last year, but it seems like the perception of the state of Illinois' program has a pretty significant impact on how that first season is judged.
What I see is a team that's been irrelevant for a decade, that had maybe three B1G-caliber starters (with one being a freshman and one making his sophomore leap), and that boasts facilities that are a C+ at best. I mean, go take a tour at Oregon and then walk through Ubben and you might get some insight into the mind of Francis Okoro.
Basketball programs are much easier to turn around in a hurry than football programs, and as such I'm expecting significant improvement this year. But I've not seen much that disturbs me from Underwood just yet given the context.
I guess this is a good example of how one's interpretation depends on one's viewpoint, but I would argue that the rest is context, as your first paragraph somewhat underscores. Our (generally) high expectations for Underwood were based off his previous success as HC at two different programs (and a heavy dose of Orange kool-aid, high expectations for MS, etc.). Underwood's capabilities as a coach didn't suddenly diminish when he came to Illinois, but his situation did. The context of that situation is far more nuanced than simply 'the previous coach didn't bring us back to prominence'. This, along with a decent sample size, matters when judging performance, which is why this will be a much more fruitful debate (fingers crossed that there is no need for one!) in the spring. Yes, we need a good recruiting class and results on the court - no debate there. But if we are going to debate Underwood's job performance after 1.5 years, it should be contextualized. If we want to use more black/white metrics (make tourney or not, get x number of 5-stars, etc.), then we need to allow for a sufficient sample size first.
These are both good posts and I think they broadly express a similar sentiment. That contextualizing the circumstances of last season differently than Obelix and I do leads to different conclusions about that season, but critically ALSO leads to different expectations for next season.
I've made my case about what we've seen at excruciating length. But, if we're a markedly better team next year, not even NCAA tournament good, just like NIT bubble good (and our best players don't turn around and transfer away), then the context under which I'm understanding the situation is wrong and will need to be significantly revised. I look forward to doing that, I'm praying I have to.
If my read on the situation is right though, then we're likely to be just as bad if not worse next year, and where my frustration will come in is if smart posters like the two I'm quoting here don't have the same recognition that new data is damaging to the viability of their hypotheses about the situation. Because that would be demonstrating that the emotional positioning of defending the "too new to criticize" coach is doing the work, not an objective assessment of the situation. That gets me upset and I spend too much time hectoring people about that, but that is NOT what I think about all of you, or even most of you. There are multiple equally thoughtful ways to look at our current situation, and I appreciate reading them. Indeed, Obelix and I actually have pretty dramatically different viewpoints.
(Just as an aside, we could be 14-18 again next year but if it's because we just totally lack bigs and Trent and Ayo are both studs, and we have two more stud big recruits incoming, it could still flip the script in my mind. The point of the next 15 months is to get into position where there is significant objective reason to believe that we are back to being a sustainable tournament-quality basketball team in 2019-20 and beyond. That's my measuring stick. It's most likely that tangible on-court team performance improvement in 2018-19 does the lions share of that, but there are other possibilities.)
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It has certainly been excruciating.
In all seriousness, I think that there are objective reasons to believe that this upcoming year's team will be better than last (specifically, talent and continuity among the coaching staff). There are also objective concerns (experience and SoS). I think that it's very possible that we could see a markedly improved team on the floor but still finish well out of the money due to the difficulty of the early schedule. If that happens, it'll be tough for me to maintain objectivity in evaluating prospects for the remainder of Underwood's tenure.
I'm curious what you mean by the bolded.
This ridiculous arm chair AD stuff IMO should stop. Newsflash:
1 season is not the time to make an evaluation.
2 seasons is not the time to make an evaluation.
3 seasons is not the time to make an evaluation, but we're getting there.
4 seasons, now you can scream and shout if you think we're not relevant or definitely headed there.
I completely agree that college coaching is about winning and putting fans in seats. Whitman invested more than we had in any previous coach --about double what we paid for Groce, with generous buyout terms. I think we always expected a top-25 level program, but attracting good coaching has gotten more expensive, and Illinois, sadly is not the destination it once was. Booster support, and the damage done by Weber/Groce have really hurt it. Despite that, Whitman believed Underwood was the guy to turn it around, and plunked down real money. From that standpoint, Underwood will need to show progress heading into season 4 and beyond.
HOWEVER, the only situation where Underwood doesn't get full support, is some disaster for "cause". His buyout going into year 5 will be the first time it's potentially affordable to make an evaluation other than "He has our full support". Even then, you're looking at $4.7 mil., which makes it pretty tempting to run another year. I don't see any point in even looking for a pitchfork for a couple years. We're in this for the long haul, and should think accordingly.
This is exactly what I've been trying to say without all the contract details. (Props to you on that). I mean how can you write off a coach before you even give him a chance to develop the players he recruits.
Deleted member 186590
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18 months is not too early to evaluate a coach's job performance. Right now his performance is:
1) One of the worst seasons in Illinois basketball history (no first year bump for a good X's & O's coach replacing a bad one)
2) A good 2018 recruiting class - getting Ayo was key
3) Losing a lot of good players to transfer or early departure (style fit perhaps, but not a good sign losing that many)
4) Whiffing on priority 2019 recruits thus far
This is poor performance so far - there just isn't another way to spin it. It was a questionable hire - like many argued at the time - to throw that much money at a coach that has no real tournament success and wasn't that highly sought after. It would be one thing if he was taking a shot at a young coach on the rise, knowing he might take some growing pains to develop, but bring excitement back to the program. That is not the case with BU, he's not going to become a beacon attracting talent to come here all of a sudden. Can anyone think of another example of a coach in his mid 50's with one year of high major HC experience all of a sudden becoming a prominent coach leading his teams to conference titles and runs in the tourny on a consistent basis? The profile rarely/never turns into a consistent successful winner that we're hoping for. I know that is not what anyone wants to hear, because as others have pointed out, we're pot committed to him for several more years, but this will likely not end well.
1) One of the worst seasons in Illinois basketball history (no first year bump for a good X's & O's coach replacing a bad one)
2) A good 2018 recruiting class - getting Ayo was key
3) Losing a lot of good players to transfer or early departure (style fit perhaps, but not a good sign losing that many)
4) Whiffing on priority 2019 recruits thus far
This is poor performance so far - there just isn't another way to spin it. It was a questionable hire - like many argued at the time - to throw that much money at a coach that has no real tournament success and wasn't that highly sought after. It would be one thing if he was taking a shot at a young coach on the rise, knowing he might take some growing pains to develop, but bring excitement back to the program. That is not the case with BU, he's not going to become a beacon attracting talent to come here all of a sudden. Can anyone think of another example of a coach in his mid 50's with one year of high major HC experience all of a sudden becoming a prominent coach leading his teams to conference titles and runs in the tourny on a consistent basis? The profile rarely/never turns into a consistent successful winner that we're hoping for. I know that is not what anyone wants to hear, because as others have pointed out, we're pot committed to him for several more years, but this will likely not end well.
These two run in direct conflict with each other.
I think his aggressive style of play is plenty attractive. As these players in the 18 class progress and start winning we will pick up steam in recruiting. Find some suitable backups for Higgs and Kane this year and this train is ROLLIN!!! A little positivity to counter the negative Nancy's round here.
Deleted member 342779
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Underwood was a fantastic hire. The record was poor last year , but they improved in a lot of areas, and the culture of accountability was established.
He’s going to win at Illinois and win big. That it didn’t happen in 1 year is more about today’s instant gratification expectations, then his ability to coach and lead a program.
Let it bake..
He’s going to win at Illinois and win big. That it didn’t happen in 1 year is more about today’s instant gratification expectations, then his ability to coach and lead a program.
Let it bake..
Any AD worth their salt is evaluating their coaches at least once a year, why in the world would they not be? You don't think that at any point since March, JW has evaluated how last season went and how recruiting is going? You think that after having 6 players with remaining eligibility transfer out, he didn't sit down with the staff and try to evaluate what was going on? That is truly some ridiculous arm chair AD stuff. Regarding firing BU, I don't think I've seen that mentioned once, so I'm not sure where that's coming from.
After a full year, its absolutely fair to evaluate a coach, in fact, it's absurd to not evaluate what the coach has done (employers don't wait 4 years to start reviewing employees, at least they don't if they want a successful business). Now, drawing conclusions about a coach after a year, that's ridiculous. And of course, there's gonna be a lot of spin in both directions on pretty much every aspect, even more so early on in a coaches tenure.
Last year was a historically bad year. Some of that blame has to be put on Underwood. Likewise, Groce and Whitman shoulder some of it too. Now, Underwood actually might be the least to blame out of those three, but he had a hand in it, you can't argue that. There are coaches out there (would they have signed on instead of BU? Perhaps, perhaps not, thats a whole other discussion) that would've had better seasons, whether that be because they pulled better talent immediately, or coached better to the players they had. These are pretty much useless points, but its still fact that BU had a hand in how poorly last year's team played.
Personally, I think this program has fallen too far to not give BU a solid 4 years to turn it around, but I will admit I'm a lot more skeptical now than I was last year that he can do it. For now, I'll continue to looks for negative (and positive) trends during his employment. However, it remains that if we start making and winning multiple NCAAT games, he's already brought the program back from the Groce hole.
This isn't exactly related to the point the OP was making, but for the most part the guys you've mentioned don't have B1G talent. Black is the only one I could see getting significant minutes on a top-six team in this league, and I can't really fault Underwood for his departure as he's got a degree and is no longer playing college basketball. The other guys, maybe they get some minutes here or there, but do you see Lucas getting 20 mpg at Ohio State or Michigan? I don't.
Continuity is important, but I can't blame Underwood for wanting to start over given what he inherited.
Pretty much what it says -- if the record doesn't track with the quality of play, it'll be difficult for me to avoid letting the strain of losing impact how I view the team. I went through something like that last December. In the absence of a ton of data points on Smith and Alstork, I had wishcast them into productive B1G regulars and wrote off some of the early losses to luck. There's an element of truth to the luck thing, but in retrospect I changed my opinion about what was actually happening on the court given some time to let it sit.
None of that matters to anyone but me, it's just an idle musing.
Henson, you missed the NCAA the first five years and six of the first seven as head coach of the Illini.
BananaShampoo
Captain 'Paign
- Phoenix, AZ
Should probably point out here that the Tourney only went to 64 teams in 1985 - 10 years into Henson's tenure at Illinois. When he started only 32 teams got in and it gradually expanded to 64 teams by 1985.Henson, you missed the NCAA the first five years and six of the first seven as head coach of the Illini.
First message on this board. Sorry if this is out of place but wanted to give my thoughts on our recruiting so far with this staff.
I think that our incoming class has a lot to like about it, along with our returners. Ayo and Tev are obviously the two big gets. Our backcourt depth for the next two years is in a solid place IMO and as guys like Williams, Feliz, Griffin, Ayo, Griffin and Tev adapt to Underwood’s system and the Big Ten more, we should be in a good spot.
Obviously the big-man troubles are a little concerning. But realistically, with the potential our backcourt has, it is not a complete meltdown if we miss out on a guy like Liddell or Cockburn. We just need a few serviceable bigs on this roster to become really competitive. If we can roll out in 2019 with Higgs, Kane, Bez and two of Timme/Tshiebwe/Jitobah or like players I think we will see a very good team next year. It’s a process! I-L-L!
I think that our incoming class has a lot to like about it, along with our returners. Ayo and Tev are obviously the two big gets. Our backcourt depth for the next two years is in a solid place IMO and as guys like Williams, Feliz, Griffin, Ayo, Griffin and Tev adapt to Underwood’s system and the Big Ten more, we should be in a good spot.
Obviously the big-man troubles are a little concerning. But realistically, with the potential our backcourt has, it is not a complete meltdown if we miss out on a guy like Liddell or Cockburn. We just need a few serviceable bigs on this roster to become really competitive. If we can roll out in 2019 with Higgs, Kane, Bez and two of Timme/Tshiebwe/Jitobah or like players I think we will see a very good team next year. It’s a process! I-L-L!
You're arguing some narrow semantics. If you mean "Evaluate" as a rubber stamp, sure, but if you mean "Evaluate" as an actual, meaningful exercise of actually considering options and change, no.
Whitman has zero thought of doing anything other than providing his full support to Underwood, period. And the reason that he's going to do that is that he already made that commitment to the tune of an 8 figure buyout (i.e. about $12 million currently). He'd be undermining himself if he started undermining Underwood, and that won't change anytime soon. Just ain't gonna happen.
Per my post above, that simply isn't applicable here. Employers don't typically have the long-term implications that a coach and program has, nor are they under multi-year deals with expensive buy-outs, affects on recruiting, season tix, etc.
I feel similarly about having our eyes open. But whether it's a good thing or a bad thing, he's here for several more seasons. Might as well get used to that fact.
ILL in IA
- Iowa City
I'm no insider, but I would guarantee Smith contributes nothing to Mizz this year
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