Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (May 2019)

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Let me know when you perfect the formula for predicting which of said lower rated recruits will contribute over a 4 year period.
A lot of programs have done it in the past (Wisconsin, Butler, Gonzaga, etc.). It's not as easy to sustain success with as it is for the Blue Bloods, but the formula is putting together kids that have the ability and fire to compete and know how to win. Once a program proves they know how to win and established that identity, then opportunities to attract high talent more consistently becomes easier. Just my opinion.
 
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In order to get Kaubke the staff would have to be actively pursuing him.
I believe you know and that really sucks. His ranking has dropped off from previous rankings if I'm not mistaken but that doesn't matter to me. I wish they would lock up someone early. I think he will be an exceptional college player.
 
Wilmette, IL
I believe you may want to go look at who we are actually recruiting. It's not like we are actually going and just recruiting all of the kids recruited by Duke and Kentucky and no one else. In fact, we have not heavily recruited many 5 star recruits lately. We have gone after some that are borderline 4/5 star guys, and have done okay in that realm (Dosunmu, Cockburn), and I'd personally like to keep doing that. We have lost out on a lot of recruits, but who doesn't outside of the blue bloods (and really, even they do).

Would I like to see more success in recruiting? Yes. That doesn't mean I want a team full of Matt Chastains.
It would be like those basketball scenes in "Flubber!"
 
He isn't in the tier 1 category and wouldn't be a take right now. They feel they can get two guys in the top tier sooo
What is your take on the Kouma situation? There seems to be something going on with one side or the other. Of course not signing doesn't mean he isn't coming, but we haven't heard of any visits or any reasons for not signing either.
 
It's a question of maximizing the expected value of each scholarship.

It's a game of Deal or No Deal, essentially. There is a mathematically correct way to play.

Basketball recruits don't have their expected values printed in bright bold letters on them, so it's a little more complicated, but it's the same basic concept.

Illinois has over and over and over and over and over and over and over again declined or slow played recruits who were better than what they ended up accepting in vain hope of not just landing top talent, but landing ALL of the top talent that we were targeting, a wild long shot bet. The house always wins when you take risks like that.
But you never get in the high rollers game playing the nickel slots.
 
Illini optimist
Charleston
One of the best paragraphs was in the second article:

“... Illinois hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2013 and has arguably underachieved in every season since the program made the national championship game in 2005. Reversing that trend won’t be automatic.”
 
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Not sure how everyone else views it but I think you need a balance of 7-8 players that can play and compete now. Once you have those players you can gamble on players with a high ceiling that may develop (example: Samba). We have at this point Trent, Ayo, Giorgi, and Dre as proven and Kofi as assumed ready. The question is are Samba, Tevian, and Alan ready. If two are ready we will be pretty good but Holyfield would have reduced the need to one. Kouma would fit into the development pool but if Samba isn't ready for major mins we will struggle again although less than last year. Some teams (Whisky) redshirt those developmental players to give them more time. The last player we redshirted (other than injuries) was Finke. Rebuilding is about having those pieces develop and if they existed at all they transferred last year. Last year's class netted three ready now and high ceilings on all but Higgs. If success as high this year we will be in great shape but doesn't look good at this point.
 
It's a question of maximizing the expected value of each scholarship.

It's a game of Deal or No Deal, essentially. There is a mathematically correct way to play.
No offense intended, but glad you're not heading up our recruiting.

Beyond the elite recruits, the ability to evaluate and PROJECT is critical. At this age, it ain't moneyball. Character, effort, development, and fit are all very important at a future skill level that's TBD. And the further out you recruit, the more of a crap shoot you're taking. I'm personally not a fan of year round recruiting, nor do I think we're strong at it, but I'm actually happy with the rebuild so far. I'm giving Underwood a complete pass on the first year where the roster transition was untenable. That's a big ask, so I don't blame fans who won't overlook it. But if you do, we held onto a lot of talent this year from a young team. We came out of the gate against a brutal schedule that stopped us from making the tourney, but we have a great ceiling IMO. I see a lot of improvement coming, and were it not for that rough transition, I think we'd all be pretty excited.

Really hoping we see better closing rates with recruits, but wins on the court will count a lot more.
 
One of the best paragraphs was in the second article:

“... Illinois hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2013 and has arguably underachieved in every season since the program made the national championship game in 2005. Reversing that trend won’t be automatic.”
I think this one is better. https://watchstadium.com/news/big-t...k-the-best-jobs-in-the-conference-10-11-2018/

“The fan base has no clue – such unrealistic expectations. They are nuts. Plus, Chicago has players – but it might take a little more than a scholarship to get a lot of them.” – Big Ten assistant coach
That describes the majority of the posters on this board, "nuts" with "unrealistic expectations".
 
Not sure how everyone else views it but I think you need a balance of 7-8 players that can play and compete now. Once you have those players you can gamble on players with a high ceiling that may develop (example: Samba). We have at this point Trent, Ayo, Giorgi, and Dre as proven and Kofi as assumed ready. The question is are Samba, Tevian, and Alan ready. If two are ready we will be pretty good but Holyfield would have reduced the need to one. Kouma would fit into the development pool but if Samba isn't ready for major mins we will struggle again although less than last year. Some teams (Whisky) redshirt those developmental players to give them more time. The last player we redshirted (other than injuries) was Finke. Rebuilding is about having those pieces develop and if they existed at all they transferred last year. Last year's class netted three ready now and high ceilings on all but Higgs. If success as high this year we will be in great shape but doesn't look good at this point.
I don't expect Samba to play extended minutes. He can develop into a good B10 5 one day. I dont expect him to make a huge jump in just one off season. His basketball skill set was incredibly limited last year. He hasnt been playing very long. If he does suddenly develop a quality shot and handles then Orlando should be someone all bigs would want to learn from I hope Samba surprises me.
I do think we will land someone. If we don't then I think if Kofi and GB can avoid foul trouble we will be way ahead of last season.
 
I don't expect Samba to play extended minutes. He can develop into a good B10 5 one day. I dont expect him to make a huge jump in just one off season. His basketball skill set was incredibly limited last year. He hasnt been playing very long. If he does suddenly develop a quality shot and handles then Orlando should be someone all bigs would want to learn from I hope Samba surprises me.
I do think we will land someone. If we don't then I think if Kofi and GB can avoid foul trouble we will be way ahead of last season.
Hope you are right about landing someone else because we need major minutes from someone in addition to Kofi and Giorgi. Don't have any idea about Samba but don't think we need significant offense from him. If he can defend and rebound we are way ahead of last year. Do think that is more likely than Kofi not having foul trouble. If we could get functional minutes from Kipper it would also help but we would still be undersized. Also am not optimistic about Kipper based on last year's performance as I thought he was our biggest disappointment. Need OA to pull one out of his hat.
 
Stylin' and Profilin'
I think this one is better. https://watchstadium.com/news/big-t...k-the-best-jobs-in-the-conference-10-11-2018/



That describes the majority of the posters on this board, "nuts" with "unrealistic expectations".
That person is spot on - if referring to Illinois fans who started watching after about 2008. They have "no clue" how good we were and for how long. Yes, it's fading in the rear view mirror, but to imply fans have no clue when expecting better than sub-500 performance is insulting. Meanwhile, programs with no better historical resumes seem to be doing fine; are their fans nuts?
 
That person is spot on - if referring to Illinois fans who started watching after about 2008. They have "no clue" how good we were and for how long. Yes, it's fading in the rear view mirror, but to imply fans have no clue when expecting better than sub-500 performance is insulting. Meanwhile, programs with no better historical resumes seem to be doing fine; are their fans nuts?
This is exactly right. Those people thinking that Illini fans are "unrealistic" are using the last dozen or so years as a baseline od our performance rather than an aberrant period of subpar performance. The longer the dry spell is the more reasonable that perception becomes. Let's hope next season is a turnaround year and that losing seasons are not normal but rather unthinkable and the perennial question becomes what seed we get in the tourney and not whether we make it in.
 
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