Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread (October 2018)

[Emerson Bigguns]

How is only have two (three if you wanna count Adonis) C options not eerily similar to our PG problems with Tracy, Jaylon, and Khalid? Heck, I'd bet (at least for this next year) that Tracy was a better starting PG than Giorgi or Samba will be. Now, backup wise the C situation might look brighter, but inexperience is huge, especially for bigs.

We traded our PG problem for a C problem (and honestly, a PF problem too). We lose Samba or Giorgi, and we are in just as much crap as we were when Tracy went down, maybe even more. Malcolm at PG was more effective than Kipper will be defending 6'11"+ guys in the paint constantly. Spin it how you want, but the fact is we missed on all our high PF/C targets, just like Groce did with PG. At least Groce had a good excuse of Snider spurning us at the 11th hour.

I must have missed the seasons where Groce was bringing in elite big men, and our ONLY issue was point guard play... One thing I know for certain is that if you don't have good guard play, you don't have a chance. Trent and Ayo have a chance to be a special back-court at some point. (probably no sooner than 2019-2020)

Despite our size disadvantage, we were able to create turnovers at an elite level last season, somewhat mitigating the fact that we were the worst defensive rebounding team in the nation. If we can just get to mediocre in rebounding, and take better care of the basketball, we should be good for 5-6 more wins this season. That may not sound like much, but we will need to get to average before we can get to good.

 

[Dbell1981]

Weber listened to complainers on the internet, and that's why he doesn't coach here anymore.

And again, this idea that it was completely knowable that Mike Shaw and Brian Carlwell were totally useless players from the moment they committed is such revisionist garbage it barely merits a response. That's not what a single soul said at the time and you perfectly well know it.

Anything, ANYTHING, throw any combination of words you can find at the truth to make it go away and let Loyalty get back to holding up a boombox outside the house of whoever the next Diane Court is. This one will understand how special we are.

IllinoisLloydDobler.com

My point is let's wait to see what these recruits turn out to be before you judge them. Those classes that were good on paper turned out to be pretty lackluster. You can add Stan Simpson, Darius Paul and D.J. Williams to the list of decent rated busts or at least players who didn't pan out. Recruiting rankings aren't everything.

 

[coryfor3]

Class of Walker, Tshiebwe, Shannon, and Guerrier looks mighty fine right now.

Yeah that seems to be how things are going.

 

[jmilt7]

Delete

 

[Second and Chalmers]

And pretty much everyone (not no one) realized that Shaw wasn't going to be the player that people thought when he was younger.

He was RSCI #65 in 2011. He had at times during his high school career been ranked much higher, and was definitely (not unlike DJ Williams) regarded as a somewhat enigmatic talent where the light wasn't always on. "Boom or bust" would be a fair label. "Predictable that he would never impact our team whatsoever" is a risible falsehood spoken only as a rickety support to an equally risible broader argument.

Every single other program in the B1G has had guys like that as well. Every single other program in the B1G has had results more reflective of their recruiting level than us.

 

[Obelix]

Winning is the solution to the problem of Illini recruiting.

Actually, recruiting is the solution to winning.

I see posters claiming "win, win, win" and the recruiting will come. Well, if you can "win, win, win" (i.e., win consistently) then you have already solved your problem without recruiting (unless someone means the extra push towards national contention, which we are so far from it is not even worth mentioning).

The other common misconception is that if we win and have a good season, the recruiting floodgates will open. That is not true. We not only won, but we won extremely big in the early years of Weber (with Self's players) yet it was evident that recruiting was taking a downward trend. At the end, either you are a very good recruiter, or you are not. JMO.

 

[ChiefIllini]

I must have missed the seasons where Groce was bringing in elite big men, and our ONLY issue was point guard play... One thing I know for certain is that if you don't have good guard play, you don't have a chance. Trent and Ayo have a chance to be a special back-court at some point. (probably no sooner than 2019-2020).

Well, I never said anything about Groce's issues with the other positions. That team had issues from the AD down to the players. What I was arguing is that BU has partially inherited, but also fed into a serious problem up front, at least in terms of a traditionally built roster.

You cannot deny similar types of misses with C's that Groce dealt with in PG's. I think BU has given a better effort at covering it up. Time will tell if it works. I don't want to be too critical of how last two recruiting classes yet, but its obvious misses, and big ones at that (literally and figuratively), have at least bothered BU.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

I did watch both Carlwell and Shaw in HS and while you are right that the vast majority had over-valued their abilities at the time, I did unfortunately post that Carlwell was very overrated and caught many negative responses as a result. But Carlwelll was vastly overrated, independent of the accident. Shaw was good as a freshman in HS, I though he would develop more. Very close friends with Wayne Blackshear, they had expressed interest to play together but by the time their recruitment rolled around they had opposite trajectories and unfortunately for Shaw, it was downwards.

Much of Shaw's career in college was really dominated by injuries, eventually he had to retire from college early. The family believes that some of the lingering injury effects started in HS, way before much more serious injuries dominated in college. Without the medical problems and lingering injuries, Shaw may had ended up a different player based on his early (freshman in HS) days.

I think Shaw's was the first recruitment that I learned about commitable offers. Blackshear commits and Shaw has an offer and doesn't follow him? Oh, well, it's not all the offer that you might think it is.

That said, I was a fan like most others. I was happy to get Shaw, especially as it added to our street cred to some degree. But I think most understood why he fell to us.

 

[Deleted member 643761]

He was RSCI #65 in 2011. He had at times during his high school career been ranked much higher, and was definitely (not unlike DJ Williams) regarded as a somewhat enigmatic talent where the light wasn't always on. "Boom or bust" would be a fair label. "Predictable that he would never impact our team whatsoever" is a risible falsehood spoken only as a rickety support to an equally risible broader argument.

Every single other program in the B1G has had guys like that as well. Every single other program in the B1G has had results more reflective of their recruiting level than us.

"Predictable that he would never impact our team whatsoever"

I can't find the quote above. Was it spoken by your friendly strawman?

 

[NB2D]

You have to recruit players that fit your system. The guy that is going to Ohio State would have been a good fit here, but there will be others that WANT TO PLAY HERE.

 

[illiniCA]

Actually, recruiting is the solution to winning.

I see posters claiming "win, win, win" and the recruiting will come. Well, if you can "win, win, win" (i.e., win consistently) then you have already solved your problem without recruiting (unless someone means the extra push towards national contention, which we are so far from it is not even worth mentioning).

The other common misconception is that if we win and have a good season, the recruiting floodgates will open. That is not true. We not only won, but we won extremely big in the early years of Weber (with Self's players) yet it was evident that recruiting was taking a downward trend. At the end, either you are a very good recruiter, or you are not. JMO.

Do you really think winning and recruiting are uncorrelated?

 

[Second and Chalmers]

"Predictable that he would never impact our team whatsoever"

I can't find the quote above. Was it spoken by your friendly strawman?

"free-falling" was the term used. Great Petty tune. Inaccurate description.

 

[Obelix]

Do you really think winning and recruiting are uncorrelated?

On the contrary, I believe they are indeed correlated. But correlation does not mean causation.

The causal effect of recruiting to winning is much higher than the other way around.

 

[sacraig]

I think one thing a lot of folks seem to overlook is facilities. Take a situation like the one we just went through, for example. Now, I am not saying that this is what pushed Liddell to Ohio State over us, but it's a plausible factor in similar situations. A guy come in and sees several schools. All have second-year coaches with not a lot of track record at said school but solid track records elsewhere. All are power conference schools (arguably) in driving distance. So, what makes the decision? You have to think that, for someone with NBA potential, he wants those top flight training facilities on day one to help maximize his potential as soon as possible, such as what Ohio State has. Meanwhile, we have committed to upgrading our facilities, but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

So, in short, I don't think winning solves everything. I think winning helps. New training facilities help. Building up some swagger around the program helps. I think we are on our way to doing all of these things, but it takes time, and our program had been dragged so far through the dirt prior to this that it's almost like starting with nothing. Ayo is an outlier, not a trend. We need that to be a trend.

 

[IlliniBus]

Sorry to keep beating the dead horse, but how much different would our recent history be if we managed to keep the Illinois kids that went to Ohio St.? The unfortunately long list includes Evan Turner, Lenzelle Smith Jr., Sam Thompson, Keita Bates-Diop,and now EJ Liddell. All were "getable" and those types of kids were the bread and butter of Illinois recruiting during our successful runs; very good players just a notch below blue blood status. Sprinkle in a top player every now and then (Frank Williams, Cook, Dee) and that was the recipe for success. What is funny is that we have managed to maintain a similar pace with the high end talent (Richmond, Leonard, Ayo) but it is the next tier where we have fallen off.

My other point is that I can't believe it's Ohio St. doing this to us. I lived in Columbus for 4 years and it is a fine school in a nice town, but I just don't see what the draw is for these Illinois kids to go to a mid-tier basketball program two states away with no special connections. Basketball will always be second fiddle to football and all the jokes about that are absolutely true. Yes they've had some recent success starting with Matta getting fortunate with Oden/Conley when IU was a mess and then in the Sullinger years, but it's not like they've been some powerhouse for a long time now. It's been 6 years since they made it out of the first weekend of the tournament. There are a number of other programs that would make a ton more sense if they were doing this to us. Michigan St. with all their success. Indiana with their history and proximity. Even Wisconsin with the run they went on recently. Purdue under Painter. But Ohio St.??? I just don't get it.

 

[Obelix]

You have to recruit players that fit your system. The guy that is going to Ohio State would have been a good fit here, but there will be others that WANT TO PLAY HERE.

Recruiting is about convincing talented recruits to play here. It is not just about players who want to play here a priori.

 

[sacraig]

Recruiting is about convincing talented recruits to play here. It is not just about players who want to play here a priori.

Unless you are Duke or Kentucky... which we are not.

I really wish this "players that want to play here" narrative would die a quiet death.

 

[McBrush]

It is not just one thing. Yes, Illinois needs to recruit well. Winning will help spread the brand. Coaching will help develop players. Fans will help encourage worth. Players need to work hard and stay clean to continue developing. A bunch of other things and a huge dose of luck all go together to create good teams.

From what I feel like I am seeing from a totally clueless and outside perspective is that we are trying really hard to create a winning team. The coaches are encouraging themselves and the players to get better. It seems like they are recruiting all of the players that they and fans want to have on our team. Yes, most of the top recruits may go elsewhere, but what more can they do about it besides moving on to the next option. Recruiting seems like very hard work and no one can predict why each recruit goes in the direction they choose. Try convincing a teenager to do anything. Illinois has a good looking backcourt right now. Underwood cannot help the fact that Groce left him without any real center upperclassman. The past year he recruited Kane and Giorgi. We have potential big men on our radar this year. We may not get them, but that is the trouble of recruiting, only one of Illinois and so many other schools to choose from.

 

[bluemountain]

If we think it has ever been anything but ABI, you are kidding yourself. Go back to the year before the Flyin Illini. We lost out on the top 4 in-state prospects that year - LaPhonso went to ND, Anderson went to IU, Acie Earl and Ray Thompson went to Iowa. Andy Kaufmann was a pretty good player, but not in the same class as these guys. I guess we also recruited PJ Bowman that year so that's something. The year before that Marcus Liberty was set to go to Syracuse until persuaded otherwise. the year after Deon was set to go to Iowa until persuaded otherwise. In 1998 we landed Frankie, but lost out on Q, Simmons, Wright, Lance Williams and a few other top guys I can't remember. In 1980 we landed Bontemps and Richardson, but lost on Doc Rivers, Isaiah, Terry Cummings and others.

I'm not sure what it is, but with rare exceptions we really struggle in Chicago with the top guys and get nothing out of St. Louis. You can pretty well list the MCDAA caliber guys on two hands - EJ, Winters, Lib, Deon, Nick, Hamilton, Dee, Richmond. Our bread and butter has been Peoria talent with a few out of staters and underrated guys like Gill, Battle, Augustine and Head. With a better coach Nunn, Hill, etc would have fit the same mold.

What we saw with Liddell is discouraging, but perfectly in keeping with UI history. It would have been more surprising had he chosen Illinois

 

[IllFanInMi]

Preci

On the contrary, I believe they are indeed correlated. But correlation does not mean causation.

The causal effect of recruiting to winning is much higher than the other way around.

Precisely, winning with less talent at mid majors gets you a promotion to a power school, winning (when talent temporarily cycles down) with less talent at a power school, keeps your job, not being able to recruit talent needed to consistently win at a power school costs your job.

Having good to exceptional years with less talent can and does happen, but it’s an outlier. It’s much easier to say win first and recruiting will come than it is to actually do it.

Saying the above, I like this team and appreciate the talent on the roster, so show us what you got BU!

 

[Obelix]

Unless you are Duke or Kentucky... which we are not.

I agree that is why I said "not just about." There may be some of UI, but certainly not many right now. The same set is much bigger for Duke and Kentucky but even for those schools, there is usually much competition for the same recruits between them as many top recruits want blue-bloods but need convincing on which one.

 

[TwoElevenEastDaniel]

If we think it has ever been anything but ABI, you are kidding yourself. Go back to the year before the Flyin Illini. We lost out on the top 4 in-state prospects that year - LaPhonso went to ND, Anderson went to IU, Acie Earl and Ray Thompson went to Iowa. Andy Kaufmann was a pretty good player, but not in the same class as these guys. I guess we also recruited PJ Bowman that year so that's something. The year before that Marcus Liberty was set to go to Syracuse until persuaded otherwise. the year after Deon was set to go to Iowa until persuaded otherwise. In 1998 we landed Frankie, but lost out on Q, Simmons, Wright, Lance Williams and a few other top guys I can't remember. In 1980 we landed Bontemps and Richardson, but lost on Doc Rivers, Isaiah, Terry Cummings and others.

I'm not sure what it is, but with rare exceptions we really struggle in Chicago with the top guys and get nothing out of St. Louis. You can pretty well list the MCDAA caliber guys on two hands - EJ, Winters, Lib, Deon, Nick, Hamilton, Dee, Richmond. Our bread and butter has been Peoria talent with a few out of staters and underrated guys like Gill, Battle, Augustine and Head. With a better coach Nunn, Hill, etc would have fit the same mold.

What we saw with Liddell is discouraging, but perfectly in keeping with UI history. It would have been more surprising had he chosen Illinois

1998's other big miss was Corey Maggette if I remember correctly.

 

[illiniCA]

On the contrary, I believe they are indeed correlated. But correlation does not mean causation.

The causal effect of recruiting to winning is much higher than the other way around.

Sure but you don't think tending downward in wins and going 4-14 in conference make it more difficult to recruit?


My main point is.... I think it will be very difficult to recruit top 50 players consistently unless we winning more or showing improvement. It seems more likely that we could get top 100 players and hopefully a coaching staff starts to bridge the gap between potential and wins.

 

[rtbritt]

Sure but you don't think tending downward in wins and going 4-14 in conference make it more difficult to recruit?


My main point is.... I think it will be very difficult to recruit top 50 players consistently unless we winning more or showing improvement. It seems more likely that we could get top 100 players and hopefully a coaching staff starts to bridge the gap between potential and wins.

Obviously this is all true. But it comes down to recruiting here, too. We won pretty consistently in the early 2000s, capping that off with the championship game in 04-05, and we didn't recruit well, so we fell off.

If you win, you have to keep recruiting well to win. If you lose, you have to recruit well to start winning.

Definitely, winning helps, and when you have a combination of winning, good recruiting, and good coaching, you will see good things long-term.

 

[IlliniinIowa]

As was suggested above, winning is a key.

"I chose Ohio State because those guys are winners, and I thought I was gonna come in and win," Liddell, a four-star forward, told cleveland.com on Monday night.
"I believe playing with those guys, we can come in and win, and have a big season."

Ouch. Slap in the face of not only Illinois players but also Missouri.