Think this could be a matchup issue? I don't see what this algorithm could be using to give us such high odds.
Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Wednesday, December 11th, 8:00pm CT, BTN
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Michigan is #5 in the country and we have a 65% chance of winning???
Did the ILLINI hire coach K while i was sleeping ha ha
A simple Google search indicates that this predictor is pretty accurate. And, as a UoI class of 79 predictive modeler, I can say such models are very good at what they are designed to do. I (with others on a team) have designed models to predict 25 years out, lived long enough to study the results and been pretty thrilled at our accuracy.
Now, as far as this model is concerned, it is up to the BB team to prove it right. The stars are aligned.
And, here was my prediction, earlier in the thread:
Michigan has beaten UNC, Gonzaga, and Iowa. As others have suggested we will need to pay to our potential the whole game, and it would not hurt if the stars were aligned.` It will be interesting to see how the team responds after pissing away the game at Maryland. Hope all the pieces start falling and fitting together.
So it is going to take some favorable officiating you say? Hopefully the donors are on board
Deleted member 29907
D
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That would move our odds downward.
I never got hooked on fonicsSo it is going to take some favorable officiating you say? Hopefully the donors are on board
I think Ayo either needs to step up, or back off. He again led the team in FGA against Maryland, and only shot 33%. He's probably our best player, but his efficiency is horrible right now. We're not going to win against good teams unless he starts giving some of his shots to guys like Trent. Trent and Kofi should be leading the team in FGAs right now; no excuses.
illini80
- Forgottonia
I dont disagree, but our guys are not good at getting to the open spot. Not sure if it was Ayo or probably Dre but there was one glaring example late against MD where we were driving and I think it was Trent open but with a guy in the passing lane. Had Trent moved up 5 ft the passing lane would have been clear. Instead the driver had no place to go.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Boy, it's hard not to get my hopes back up for this game ... we have SHOWED that we have the ability to play with top teams. We just need some mental toughness switch to "flick on" at some point, and that often seems like a hopeless pipe dream to cling to, but ... GOD, it's literally all we need! Teams would kill for our talent. If we could beat Michigan tomorrow, we would be right back on track for an awesome season, IMO. It sucks that we blew it vs. Miami and couldn't hang on to what would have been an amazing win at UMD, but a win vs. Michigan is just as impressive at the end of the day. We are currently ranked #43 in the Pomeroy ratings, with these games remaining (current rankings used):
vs. #11 Michigan
vs. #182 Old Dominion
vs. #56 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
vs. #326 North Carolina A&T
at #4 Michigan State
vs. #6 Purdue
at #48 Wisconsin
vs. #74 Rutgers
vs. #98 Northwestern
at #6 Purdue
at #11 Michigan
vs. #76 Minnesota
at #30 Iowa
vs. #8 Maryland
vs. #4 Michigan State
at #74 Rutgers
at #24 Penn State
vs. #156 Nebraska
at #98 Northwestern
vs. #26 Indiana
at #1 Ohio State
vs. #30 Iowa
I simply included those rankings to give some perspective, but assuming we lose to Michigan and keep playing how we have been playing, I am seeing us limping into a 17-14 (10-10) record and an NIT appearance. HOWEVER, a win vs. Michigan immediately gets us back into the territory of reasonably expecting to beat one of MSU or Maryland at home and possibly stealing some wins at Wisconsin, Purdue or Iowa. If this team shows us they can win this one with a good effort, I will go back to thinking we might be able to stay off the Bubble - and that was always the goal this year for the program. This game would do such wonders for our fans' and players' confidence. We need it.
I hate to sound so melodramatic, and I will never truly lose faith in our guys (it's a long season, and anything could happen), but this could be a real turning point. And they're just simply not unbeatable. We can do this. I hope the guys believe that and come out with the effort necessary to do it. Let's get it, Illini!
vs. #11 Michigan
vs. #182 Old Dominion
vs. #56 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
vs. #326 North Carolina A&T
at #4 Michigan State
vs. #6 Purdue
at #48 Wisconsin
vs. #74 Rutgers
vs. #98 Northwestern
at #6 Purdue
at #11 Michigan
vs. #76 Minnesota
at #30 Iowa
vs. #8 Maryland
vs. #4 Michigan State
at #74 Rutgers
at #24 Penn State
vs. #156 Nebraska
at #98 Northwestern
vs. #26 Indiana
at #1 Ohio State
vs. #30 Iowa
I simply included those rankings to give some perspective, but assuming we lose to Michigan and keep playing how we have been playing, I am seeing us limping into a 17-14 (10-10) record and an NIT appearance. HOWEVER, a win vs. Michigan immediately gets us back into the territory of reasonably expecting to beat one of MSU or Maryland at home and possibly stealing some wins at Wisconsin, Purdue or Iowa. If this team shows us they can win this one with a good effort, I will go back to thinking we might be able to stay off the Bubble - and that was always the goal this year for the program. This game would do such wonders for our fans' and players' confidence. We need it.
I hate to sound so melodramatic, and I will never truly lose faith in our guys (it's a long season, and anything could happen), but this could be a real turning point. And they're just simply not unbeatable. We can do this. I hope the guys believe that and come out with the effort necessary to do it. Let's get it, Illini!
The philosophy I subscribe to in basketball is that you're going to have so many possessions per game. The team that can score more efficiently than the other team is going to win. If the game was as simple as trading possessions after a make or miss then the possessions for each team would be equal minus end-of-half scenarios. Turnovers, offensive rebounds, and fouls alter the possession count; so those things are implicitly very important.
When a team has possession of the ball, and is able to attempt a shot on a possession - its their duty as a team to make an efficient attempt. Otherwise, they are just serving the other teams defense. An ill-advised shot is not much different than a turnover aside from the chance for an offensive rebound.
My thought is that either Ayo is not doing what is in the best interest of the team, or the coaches are prioritizing reputation over production when developing and executing these game plans.
Ayo has combined for 29 shots between the two losses to Miami and Maryland which has led the team. Tied for second is Feliz/Kofi with 15 shots, and third is Trent with 14. There is absolutely no reason for Ayo to have twice as many shots than the other 3 players who are all playing objectively much better than Ayo. Just look at the production below. Half of Ayo's shots should be going to Trent/Kofi/Feliz; especially Trent and Kofi whose production is off the charts right now.
I'm not trying to pick on Ayo, but this team will not win many games if Ayo is going to take his 13 FGA/G regardless of how well he and the other players are performing. As fans we might as well cross our fingers and just hope he's having a good day each game. This is the Penn State model; feed your best player no matter what and hope he has a lights out night because across the lineup you're an underdog. We have enough good players finally were this teams does not need to play that way anymore.
Ayo
9-26 FGA
1-7 3PA
2-3 FT
7 AST
4 STL
4 TO
Tent + Kofi Combined
20-29 FGA
6-11 3PA
7-8 FT
4 AST
2 STL
8 TO
Feliz
8-15 FGA
0-1 3PA
6-9 FT
5 AST
0 STL
4 TO
When a team has possession of the ball, and is able to attempt a shot on a possession - its their duty as a team to make an efficient attempt. Otherwise, they are just serving the other teams defense. An ill-advised shot is not much different than a turnover aside from the chance for an offensive rebound.
My thought is that either Ayo is not doing what is in the best interest of the team, or the coaches are prioritizing reputation over production when developing and executing these game plans.
Ayo has combined for 29 shots between the two losses to Miami and Maryland which has led the team. Tied for second is Feliz/Kofi with 15 shots, and third is Trent with 14. There is absolutely no reason for Ayo to have twice as many shots than the other 3 players who are all playing objectively much better than Ayo. Just look at the production below. Half of Ayo's shots should be going to Trent/Kofi/Feliz; especially Trent and Kofi whose production is off the charts right now.
I'm not trying to pick on Ayo, but this team will not win many games if Ayo is going to take his 13 FGA/G regardless of how well he and the other players are performing. As fans we might as well cross our fingers and just hope he's having a good day each game. This is the Penn State model; feed your best player no matter what and hope he has a lights out night because across the lineup you're an underdog. We have enough good players finally were this teams does not need to play that way anymore.
Ayo
9-26 FGA
1-7 3PA
2-3 FT
7 AST
4 STL
4 TO
Tent + Kofi Combined
20-29 FGA
6-11 3PA
7-8 FT
4 AST
2 STL
8 TO
Feliz
8-15 FGA
0-1 3PA
6-9 FT
5 AST
0 STL
4 TO
How do we bounce back after a crushing loss? That's what I'm most interested in.
They bounced back after Miami but they can’t finish at all
Well said. I LOVE Ayo's game, but he's not an elite shooter or facilitator. He's unbelievable on the break and at getting to the rim but it's getting predictable. You have to keep the defense guessing w/ some no-look passes to the corner, lobs to big Kof, etc. Special players do whatever it takes to win, and I do believe Ayo has the fire/desire to get there but he's got to do better. And far too few assists between ALL of these players. 16 total assists over 2 games from your top guards is weak
The Underwood video above.... “should have taken the administrative technical”. Um, how about you just don’t burn it after the first FT?
IMO this is a must win game. Especially with us losing to Miami at home.
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