Iowa and MSU are (by what I've read) are projected to have down years, but I would shocked to see them as anything less than touchdown favorites, at this point at least.
If we're actually good, and MSU and Iowa are actually down, the lines will reflect that.
Remember when we were favored as an unranked team against #5 Wisconsin in 2007? I remember us being strangely big favorites for that Syracuse road game that looked like a stumbling block earlier in the year too. Vegas knows.
We need to go from the 109th best team in the nation to something like the 70th, or better. If we do that, the wins will be there.