Looking back on recent Illini Basketball history

[Second and Chalmers]

I tried to keep up with this, so forgive me if I bring up something discussed already. But one thing I believe may be overlooked when discussing the talent levels of the teams and overachieving, and underachieving, is an imbalance of talent on the roster, and how thin we have been at guard post-2008. And by guard, I mean primary ball handlers. At a quick glance, the last time we went 2 deep a pg without a significant drop off from starter to backup would be the backcourt of Frazier and McCamey in 08. You have to have some elite talent 2-5 to win consistently without a good PG.

And I know the PG situation has been discussed for a long time. But looking this over again further removed made it stand out so much more.

Just to kinda put this theory to the test, if we were in an alternate universe where we kept John Groce and we were looking at a rotation something like Frazier, Mark Smith, Te'Jon, JCL, Da'Monte, Kipper, Javon Pickett, Black, Tilmon and Finke, does that seem like a good (comfortable tourney) team to you?

I know that's kind of a loaded question in a lot of ways, but I don't intend it that way at all. For me the answer is a relatively certain "no". But if those mid-Groce teams were just a PG away from being really good, surely Trent is that guy, right? That hypothetical Groce roster is definitely balanced by position and class.

 

[Obelix]

Just to kinda put this theory to the test, if we were in an alternate universe where we kept John Groce and we were looking at a rotation something like Frazier, Mark Smith, Te'Jon, JCL, Da'Monte, Kipper, Javon Pickett, Black, Tilmon and Finke, does that seem like a good (comfortable tourney) team to you?

I assume you mean last year, as we do not know what his next class would have been. I do not think they would have been favored to go in the tournament but would have better than last year's team.

Speaking of Groce, I thought he started very promising, overachieved in his first year, motivated, quickly got into highly ranked recruitments out of nowhere (e.g., Nunn, DJax, Snider), there was an overall aura of expected success and optimism. In retrospect, recruiting-wise there was an inflection point that Groce never recovered from. In a single week, he was delivered two very quick (national) knockout punches (i.e., Cliff, Snider) and he never seemed to be able to get up on his feet after that. He was never the same IMO, he lost that early momentum. By the time he was able to get up for his next fight (i.e., Frazier, Tilmon - finally delivering on his main two positional gaps) it was too late.

 

[ILL in IA]

Just to kinda put this theory to the test, if we were in an alternate universe where we kept John Groce and we were looking at a rotation something like Frazier, Mark Smith, Te'Jon, JCL, Da'Monte, Kipper, Javon Pickett, Black, Tilmon and Finke, does that seem like a good (comfortable tourney) team to you?

I know that's kind of a loaded question in a lot of ways, but I don't intend it that way at all. For me the answer is a relatively certain "no". But if those mid-Groce teams were just a PG away from being really good, surely Trent is that guy, right? That hypothetical Groce roster is definitely balanced by position and class.

Tough to say how last year goes. But if we are going hypotheticals, I feel confident Groce makes the tournament in each of his first 3 seasons if he has a healthy Tracy Abrams and competent pg play.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I assume you mean last year, as we do not know what his next class would have been.

We'd still have all of those players next year, right? That's probably what the roster looks like for 18 and 19 in a hypothetical Groce world, barring the (very real) risk of a bunch of them getting kicked off the team for some nonsense, or transferring or whatever.

In retrospect, recruiting-wise there was an inflection point that Groce never recovered from. In a single week, he was delivered two very quick (national) knockout punches (i.e., Cliff, Snider) and he never seemed to be able to get up on his feet after that. He was never the same IMO, he lost that early momentum. By the time he was able to get up for his next fight (i.e., Frazier, Tilmon - finally delivering on his main two positional gaps) it was too late.

I just find this so silly when he both landed RSCI Top 50 players Leron Black and Jalen Coleman-Lands in lengthy recruitments against major, frankly superior schools during this period he was "on the canvas" as well as taking some good rosters and losing some TERRIBLE games with them.

Did Cliff's hat trick during the early part of the 2013-14 season really cause us to lose games to the likes of a 16-17 (6-12) Georgia Tech team? Or a 14-19 (6-12) Northwestern team? Or a 15-17 (5-13) Purdue team? (remember that one random awful Painter team? Groce lost to them in Champaign). Or even perhaps a 17-15 (7-11) Indiana team?

Win one of those games and we probably make the tourney that year. Certainly with two. Think that might have helped the Groce era stagger to its feet?

I feel confident Groce makes the tournament in each of his first 3 seasons if he has a healthy Tracy Abrams and competent pg play.

For the record, this season I'm talking about was Groce's second, and Tracy Abrams started all 35 games.

 

[ILL in IA]

We'd still have all of those players next year, right? That's probably what the roster looks like for 18 and 19 in a hypothetical Groce world, barring the (very real) risk of a bunch of them getting kicked off the team for some nonsense, or transferring or whatever.



I just find this so silly when he both landed RSCI Top 50 players Leron Black and Jalen Coleman-Lands in lengthy recruitments against major, frankly superior schools during this period he was "on the canvas" as well as taking some good rosters and losing some TERRIBLE games with them.

Did Cliff's hat trick during the early part of the 2013-14 season really cause us to lose games to the likes of a 16-17 (6-12) Georgia Tech team? Or a 14-19 (6-12) Northwestern team? Or a 15-17 (5-13) Purdue team? (remember that one random awful Painter team? Groce lost to them in Champaign). Or even perhaps a 17-15 (7-11) Indiana team?

Win one of those games and we probably make the tourney that year. Certainly with two. Think that might have helped the Groce era stagger to its feet?



For the record, this season I'm talking about was Groce's second, and Tracy Abrams started all 35 games.

You are correct on Abrams, I was mistaken on his sitting out the second year Groce was here. But I do think year 3 we dance with a healthy Tracy. The team went 9-9 in conference with Tate and Starks at PG. Woof.
But to the points above, wasn't Cliff in the same class as Black? Didn't the hat trick happen the day Leron sent in his LOI? So the JCL was the only major recruitment Groce would have won after Cliff.

It's my opinion that Groce had all the makings to be really good here. He had so many strange things happen that derailed the roster/recruiting. Individually you look at them and say its bad luck and not a deal breaker, but it happened so many times they couldn't get past it.

 

[Obelix]

We'd still have all of those players next year, right? That's probably what the roster looks like for 18 and 19 in a hypothetical Groce world, barring the (very real) risk of a bunch of them getting kicked off the team for some nonsense, or transferring or whatever.

There is an entire 2018 recruiting class that you are missing.

I just find this so silly when he both landed RSCI Top 50 players Leron Black and Jalen Coleman-Lands in lengthy recruitments against major, frankly superior schools during this period he was "on the canvas" as well as taking some good rosters and losing some TERRIBLE games with them.

There were both good recruits, but Groce's main problem was positional recruiting, the inability to mainly land a PG (second was landing a healthy C/low post player). Recruiting is not just about rankings, it is about positional recruiting was well and not leaving gaps. Coleman-Lands was never and will never be a PG, and contrary to the some fans claiming that he was the PG that Groce really wanted to begin with, we only got JCL after we struck out with our top 2 PG targets (Brunson, Evans) and actually after JCL ended up with less options after ND, UM, and MSU stopped recruiting him (for whatever reason).

Positional recruiting with no gaps is extremely important. Now, you may want to argue about it with the positionless basketball crowd that claims it does not matter, but certainly not me.

Did Cliff's hat trick during the early part of the 2013-14 season really cause us to lose games to the likes of a 16-17 (6-12) Georgia Tech team? Or a 14-19 (6-12) Northwestern team? Or a 15-17 (5-13) Purdue team? (remember that one random awful Painter team? Groce lost to them in Champaign). Or even perhaps a 17-15 (7-11) Indiana team?

I am still trying to figure out what part of "recruiting-wise" in my statement you may have missed. Maybe I should bold it (... done!).

 

[Second and Chalmers]

You are correct on Abrams, I was mistaken on his sitting out the second year Groce was here. But I do think year 3 we dance with a healthy Tracy. The team went 9-9 in conference with Tate and Starks at PG. Woof.
But to the points above, wasn't Cliff in the same class as Black? Didn't the hat trick happen the day Leron sent in his LOI? So the JCL was the only major recruitment Groce would have won after Cliff.

It's my opinion that Groce had all the makings to be really good here. He had so many strange things happen that derailed the roster/recruiting. Individually you look at them and say its bad luck and not a deal breaker, but it happened so many times they couldn't get past it.

You're absolutely right on Black, got my years mixed up. But yeah, there was JCL, who was (easy to forget due to how the *ahem* local conventional wisdom endlessly referred to eventual RSCI #40 Jeremiah Tilmon as a "five star") the single highest-ranked recruit Groce ever got.

I agree that the John Groce era was a tale of constant strange occurrences. But for me, the strange things that kept happening in his tenure was going on the road to a basement B1G team that wasn't half as good as us and scoring like 45 points and losing. And for that reason, Brad Underwood could prove to be the love child of Todd Lickliter and Kelvin Sampson and I'll still never doubt the decision to fire Groce for a moment. I liked him a lot, and I loved the basketball that he wanted to play, but that tenure was never going anywhere in the win column.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

There is an entire 2018 recruiting class that you are missing.

Okay, add some freshmen to the mix if you like. I highly doubt Groce would have gotten Ayo, but whatever.

Do you think that hypothetical Groce roster is a good team with Groce as the coach?

 

[Obelix]

Okay, add some freshmen to the mix if you like. I highly doubt Groce would have gotten Ayo, but whatever.

Do you think that hypothetical Groce roster is a good team with Groce as the coach?

I answered you, those 10 last year (although still some players could have been added last year -- we do not know who), I do not think they would have been favored to go in the tournament but would have finished better than last year's team. Anything above that would have depended on additions.

LOL... I love "add some freshmen" to the team, are you serious? Like it does not matter who and what positions you add people? What do you think of Underwood's team in 2019-20, just add some freshmen to the team? And what about our 2019 recruiting class? (again, just add some random freshmen to that class).

 

[Second and Chalmers]

LOL... I love "add some freshmen" to the team, are you serious? Like it does not matter who and what positions you add people? What do you think of Underwood's team in 2019-20, just add some freshmen to the team? And what about our 2019 recruiting class? (again, just add some random freshmen to that class).

It matters greatly to the team 3 years from now, but if we had that roster, how much would new freshmen play barring some superstar addition that Groce probably wasn't getting?

At good capital-p programs, next season's success doesn't hinge on large contributions from the freshmen in most years and isn't prognosticated as such.

Carsen Edwards might be the best player in the country next year. He was just a guy as a freshman, Purdue would have been fine without him. That's a program.

 

[Obelix]

It matters greatly to the team 3 years from now, but if we had that roster, how much would new freshmen play barring some superstar addition that Groce probably wasn't getting?

I am honestly lost for words... You are not only asking about a hypothetical scenario (which there is no way of knowing), but you are talking about an unknown team skipping 1.5 recruiting classes (Spring 2017, Fall 2017, Spring 2018) composed of random imaginary players. And of all people, you are asking ME the question, who I hold strong beliefs on the value of recruiting, players, talent, positional recruiting etc.

I think we win the national championship.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

random imaginary players.

Let's re-up the list here (I realize I forgot somebody ).

Trent Frazier (So.), Mark Smith (So.), Te'Jon Lucas (Jr.), Jalen Coleman-Lands (Sr.), Aaron Jordan (Sr.), Da'Monte Williams (So.), Javon Pickett (So.), Kipper Nichols (Jr.), Leron Black (R-Sr.), Jeremiah Tilmon (So.), Michael Finke (R-Sr.)

It's a hypothetical, sure, but that's our roster for next year under John Groce if all goes well and stable. Not random at all.

How much are true freshmen who aren't Top 10 players in the country going to play on that team? I really don't think Groce lands Ayo, but how much run does Ayo even get on that team? Does Tevian Jones even get on the floor? Does Samba Kane or Ebo?

You've responded to my question. You don't think that team is going much of anywhere without an extra push from highly-ranked new freshmen. A team that probably starts three top 50 recruits needing that extra speaks volumes to me about the coach, but whatever. (For the record, I think that team is just another carbon copy of '14-15, so I agree with you)

The reason that question is relevant is because that roster does NOT have a "gap" at any position. It has multiple high-major caliber non-freshmen at all five spots. So I think that tells us something about the idea that the Groce era was undone by "gaps", which was not exactly your argument, but was raised by someone else.

Anyway, you brought up our golden eras earlier. One aspect of those golden eras was highly recruited, very talented, later to become core players barely playing as freshmen. Roger Powell and Robert Archibald spring to mind. Luther Head didn't play all that much as a freshman. If Rich McBride and Shaun Pruitt weren't "overrated", would it have mattered? Surely not.

Good programs might get an unexpected big contribution from a non-elite freshman, think Trey Burke. But they aren't routinely relying on those guys. They're growing them for the future in practice and in bit part bench roles.

I'm pretty sure we largely agree on this, right? Not sure why you've reacted so strongly.

 

[ChiefIllini]

Trent Frazier (So.), Mark Smith (So.), Te'Jon Lucas (Jr.), Jalen Coleman-Lands (Sr.), Aaron Jordan (Sr.), Da'Monte Williams (So.), Javon Pickett (So.), Kipper Nichols (Jr.), Leron Black (R-Sr.), Jeremiah Tilmon (So.), Michael Finke (R-Sr.)

I understand this is a purely hypothetical roster, but I highly doubt Black remains on the roster. I'd wager heavily against Finke (assuming we don't take his brother), Smith (for similar reason as last year), and JCL (I think he was gone regardless, though he's probably the msot likely to stay.

Let's say that entire roster remains. Yeah that's a good team. I still am not sure its top 4 in the B1G with Groce. We probably make the tourney, maybe win a game, but thats really the ceiling with Groce. That's the true issue of any Groce led team. I think its debatable to say whether or not his first year contained the most talent of any roster he had, but it isn't debatable to say that that roster was the best coached roster he ever had. You have to hand it to Weber, his teams were fundamentally and defensively sound. I think what we saw that first year was what a Groce team could be if him or his assistants could've properly coached up guys and ran what he wanted. I think thats obvious because every year from then on out, the teams became less fundamentally sound (except for FT shooting) and became less of a team and more of five guys playing basketball.

No way in this world would that team have performed to its abilities. To me, that's the defining characteristic of the Groce era, not missing out on top 50 guys or having Tate as a starter PG for like 3 years. A coach should be able to a) pick the right pieces and b) assemble them in a way to succeed. He did neither. And he had a long enough time to figure out how to.

 

[Obelix]

You've responded to my question. You don't think that team is going much of anywhere without an extra push from highly-ranked new freshmen.

That's not what I said, so please do not put words in my mouth. What I said was that team starting last season would not have been favored (projected) to make the tournament, but would have finished the season with a better record (than what we actually did). The best players would still be Frazier, Tilmon, Black, Kipper and probably (as you added) JCL. Two of them true freshmen (Frazier, Tilmon) having an impact. How much better would have depended on any further additions in the Spring (2017) including possible 5th year transfer (not just freshmen) or otherwise and how these players would mesh together. You do not know, neither would anyone else would ever know. As I had said multiple times in the past, unfortunately, Groce's last class did address some of obvious positional gaps, yet it was too late for him (Frazier, Tilmon).

On this year, we have absolutely no idea. I think the same 5 would have been really good, Tilmon with Black, allowing Kipper in his natural position and Frazier at PG, JCL could score (and I believe he will be good at DePaul). Plus with DW you can add rebounding, rotation, etc. But you can't assume that Groce would have taken 1.5 years off in recruiting and would not have added any players or that players would not have been able to contribute, especially when in the year before (last year), Tilmon and Frazier would obviously be critical elements to the team even as Freshmen. This is not a steady state of a really amazing team that no freshman will play. As with this year (and last year with Frazier), if you are good (independent of the rankings), you will find a spot on the rotation.

You can't also assume that there would be no attrition either and project Mark Smith or TJL to just take space on the bench but not contribute. There will likely be no mass exodus, but if Mark Smith did not play and was not a contributor (under Groce), he would likely still transfer. If not, it would mean that his last year may have gone better.

You do not know. We have no idea what even this team this year will be, let alone project a team 1.5-2 years from now assuming BU makes no addition, or that all of his additions do not contribute as underclassmen.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I think the same 5 would have been really good, Tilmon with Black, allowing Kipper in his natural position and Frazier at PG, JCL could score (and I believe he will be good at DePaul). Plus with DW you can add rebounding, rotation, etc. But you can't assume that Groce would have taken 1.5 years off in recruiting

I can, that's why it's called a hypothetical.

But you have thoroughly and thoughtfully answered the hypothetical, which I greatly appreciate, now let's move on here.

 

[Spanky]

We did land 3 of them from Central Illinois in '97, '98, and '99 (Griffin, Williams, and Cook), but they all played no role in the national runner-up team anyway, which goes to show you don't have to have burger boys as 60% of your starting 5 to have a very good team. .

No, you just need 3 guys ranked 50+ to all develop into NBA draft picks in your starting 5 (Deron, Augie, Head), and land a McDonald's All American in Dee on top of that to have a very good team.

Again, when is that ever going to happen, or should be expected to happen? Landing an in-state McDAA, I think you can hope to do that. I don't know about expecting it, but I think that is attainable - but the key to that team wasn't Dee. It was the other guys. You make it sound like that's easy or should be expected. All these coaches - Self, Weber, Groce, Underwood - they obviously all want their lower ranked guys to develop into NBA players. But most don't. And what made Illinois far greater than anyone could have expected was Deron/Augie/Head all playing way above their heads on the same team. That isn't a repeatable circumstance. That was luck. It's just like the guy that showed the kids recruited from 09-11 were similar ranked to 01-03. But one team had a ton of success, and the other didn't with the same coaching staff. So it wasn't just plugging in recruiting numbers and saying "ok we're great again". It didn't happen. And it should not have been expected to happen because even back in 01-03 there's nobody that would have projected that team to be a top 2 team in the country when those guys were recruited. It was luck, fortunate circumstances, whatever you want to call it.

IMO, if you want to have a great team, then you either need an amazing high level coach (that can always get more out of the whole, than the individual parts) or you have to recruit at the very top of the totem pole. If you don't have either of those things, then you can luck your way into some success (by having lot of rare local talent to recruit, or having guys play way above their heads). And IMO, that is how 2000-2006 happened. But to me, that's not a sustainable method to replicate 2000-2006.

And when people bring up the 1980s, I'd love if Illinois could own Chicago again. I'd love if it was expected that guys on the level of Deon Thomas, Marcus Liberty, Kendall Gill, Nick Anderson were expected to attend Illinois. But that dynamic, isn't there anymore and IMO it's never coming back because of the current demographics of the school. The alumni being created is not a state pride alumni base. It's a world-wide alumni base, with lot of graduates and state residents leaving Illinois. Then you just have the ease of national recruiting (with technology) compared to the 1980s, where a great kid in Chicago can be just as easily recruited by Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, UCLA as they can by Illinois.

I almost think 2000-2006 set an unreasonable expectation level that if you asked Underwood about that - he'd tell you "well, give me 3 local McDonald's All Americans, and I'll have a good team....or just let 3 of my recruits that nobody expects to become NBA players, let them become NBA draft picks and I'll have a good team"....I bet even he has to look at that era and think "man, those guys were really lucky". But somehow, that lucky streak created an expectation level among Illini fans that are now gonna be pissed off at me if I can't meet that.

 

[wewillwint]

Good point, but relatively speaking Kansas and Kentucky (and to a lesser degree Duke) always had more media, and national TV presence even back then. The big difference IMO has been AAU, where most recruits spend a lot more time always traveling in their off season out of state on the Nike/Adidas/Under Armor national circuits and events constantly interacting with multiple coaches/recruiters than back in the 80s. But good recruiters adapt to different dynamics and there are always good recruiters in every era.

The ACC were televised on the east coast in the 70's. Way more media presence - you could virtually watch every game. Of course, there was not the exposure in the Midwest, but I imagine it influenced recruits in the ACC territory to attend schools there.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

But somehow, that lucky streak created an expectation level among Illini fans that are now gonna be pissed off at me if I can't meet that.

One advantage of our last decade is that that's no longer true. The next guy to bring us steady competence in either sport is going to be a demigod here.

 

[goillini30]

You are correct on Abrams, I was mistaken on his sitting out the second year Groce was here. But I do think year 3 we dance with a healthy Tracy. The team went 9-9 in conference with Tate and Starks at PG. Woof.
But to the points above, wasn't Cliff in the same class as Black? Didn't the hat trick happen the day Leron sent in his LOI? So the JCL was the only major recruitment Groce would have won after Cliff.

It's my opinion that Groce had all the makings to be really good here. He had so many strange things happen that derailed the roster/recruiting. Individually you look at them and say its bad luck and not a deal breaker, but it happened so many times they couldn't get past it.

He really needed a good X's and O's assistant coach

 

[champaignchris]

It's my opinion that Groce had all the makings to be really good here. He had so many strange things happen that derailed the roster/recruiting. Individually you look at them and say its bad luck and not a deal breaker, but it happened so many times they couldn't get past it.

I think you can say the exact same thing about Weber in the couple years immediately after Dee graduated, particularly with the strangeness of the Gordon recruitment and the Jamar Smith/Brian Carlwell crash, which essentially ended the Illini careers of probably the best players from two consecutive recruiting classes.

 

[ChiefIllini]

It's my opinion that Groce had all the makings to be really good here. He had so many strange things happen that derailed the roster/recruiting. Individually you look at them and say its bad luck and not a deal breaker, but it happened so many times they couldn't get past it.

Every coach will have strange things happen to them. The thing with Groce is that yeah he had tough luck on a lot of recruitments and injuries. If Abrams never gets hurt, if we land, at the least Snider, Groce might have had a couple more tourney appearances.

And you might argue he had more things happen poorly out of his control than other coaches. That's true. He probably did. Without even diving into how he was in game or at teaching, Groce never had backup plans deep enough to account for things like that. Good/great coaches do that. Sure shoot for the moon, miss 9/10, but always have an above mediocre backup plan. Jaylon Tate should've never averaged more than ~12 mins a game any season he was here. He also shouldn't have been a starter. Groce's lack of depth and PG play are in large part because of misfortune, but he needed to plan better, plain and simple.

At the end of the day, I think his ceiling at UIUC was a first weekend NCAAT. He met that quota once in 5 years.

 

[MadSeason]

These stats are somewhat outdated but I think the point remains the same. In 2016-2017 Illinois produced the 3rd most D1 basketball players in the nation. https://herosports.com/news/college...d1-mens-basketball-kentucky-texas-deaaron-fox

Missing certain targets here and there should be no excuse for the titanic failure that was Weber/Groce with the talent pool available. Henson, Kruger and Self took advantage of the natural advantage of being smack dab in the middle of one of the most talent ridden states in the Country. There was a lot of room for error when coaching at Illinois. You could miss on a lot of top targets and still land a very quality team. The lack of talent evaluation and poor coaching from Weber and Groce was jaw dropping.

 

[ugottabjoshinme]

I think, during the last recruiting cycle, someone snapped a photo of some of the things that were presented to recruits on OVs. It is probably a lot of what they've been told already, but with more pomp and circumstance and in the setting of the actual gym and actual locker room and actual weight room where it will all take place.

Like the Get Mark Alstork to 20ppg powerpoint slide.

 

[Second and Chalmers]

I'd love to look back at that and laugh, but at the time it didn't seem that far fetched.

Honestly he's up there with Richmond and Shaw and Crandall Head as the biggest busts in recent Illini history.

 

[TCTORNADO]

Honestly he's up there with Richmond and Shaw and Crandall Head as the biggest busts in recent Illini history.

And to think we had 2 on the same team, Mark Smith has got to be on there somewhere.