Missouri 79, Illinois 63 POSTGAME

[Calvin]

What those on this board think will have no impact on Underwoods tenure.

Fans have a bigger impact now than they ever have. High major programs rely on boosters, sponsorships, and the goodwill of the herd. Ticket sales (i.e fan support) and other revenue isn't going to meet the targets they sold to the administration, possibly by a lot. They can't afford the alternative, but once fans leave, they need a reason to come back. The forum is not the average fan by any means, but it's a very loyal subset.

 

[Jules]

Thanks for providing this, my dude.

The DBPM (Defense Box Plus/Minus) data you linked confirms what I was suggesting before: that very low playing time (and therefore less possessions, which is what OBPM and DBPM are measured against) distorts and misrepresents Tyler Underwood's contributions.

Tyler has played less, seen his most playing time against the weakest level of competition we've faced, poached a steal here or there (half of his steals, 2/4, have come against ETSU and Evansville), and this is entirely what is responsible for his inflated DBPM. He is averaging 3.8 steals per 40 minutes, and this is distorting the mathematics of his defensive advanced states calculations.

If we took Tyler's DBPM at face value, and mute all context (as you did), what a +5.1 DBPM implies is that Tyler Underwood is one of the two most efficient defensive players on the team.

Interestingly, Samba Kane has a DBPM of +6.3, which results from the same statistical circumstances that affect Tyler's advanced stats: less minutes equals less possessions, wherein an extra steal or block here or there will spike the mess out of a player's advanced stats. Samba is averaging 4.1 blocks per 40 minutes.

Damonte Williams, who is clearly a more skilled on ball defender, and who shows *visible* understanding/anticipation of defensive principles, has a DBPM of +3.5.

Aaron Jordan - DBPM of +2.7
Ayo Dosunmu - DBPM of +1.7
Andres Feliz - DBPM of +1.4
Kipper - DBPM of +0.6
Trent Frazier - DBPM of -0.2

So, Alan Griffin's DBPM of +2.0 ranks among the top 3 of any Illini guard.

* * * * *​

After digging into these numbers, it made me wonder if Coach Underwood's answer to the press, "Tyler is way ahead defensively", was a prepared statement in anticipation of handling the nepotism question/implication. The advanced stats/DPBM is his alibi. Like a politician, which a professional or collegiate coach kind of is, Coach knows that such a statement would be enough to satisfy those who don't want to believe that he might be playing his son for selfish reasons - a piece of superficial data that would sufficiently pacify those who could not or would not see with their own eyes that young Underwood is a liability on the court. If Coach Underwood is truly invested in understanding advanced stats, he will know more clearly than either you or I that Tyler's DBPM is one of the least informative statistics of any player on the team, given the context.

The hardest thing for anyone - and especially a man - to do is question his own perspectives/worldview. Everyday we see in the loud theater of American politics what happens when people are unable to consider opposing viewpoints. But if these exchanges have any value, it is to offer us meaningful challenges to our own beliefs. You (and others) believe that there is a sincere reason, one beneficial to the team, that Tyler Underwood is getting minutes when he is, and you offered the advanced stats as a logical basis for your beliefs. You are clearly an intelligent person, and the construction of your argument was intelligent. But now that the basis of your argument has been comprehensively neutralized, providing evidence that your thinking on the issue was flawed, will you question other facets of your beliefs, such as this matter being a bigger deal than you were previously willing to acknowledge?

Happy Holidays,

- 0n3

So

 

[Jules]

So he would sscrew up his career here in order to play his walk-on son! Don’t buy it no matter what the stats say!

 

[swampyd]

I waited to post anything until I got to watch the televised game, because watching it live, you miss out on some of the back stories. I don’t get the TU vs AG talk. This game was lost because your Junior KN and your Senior AJ didn’t rise to the occasion. You would hope they would lay it all out there. I’m ok with them both seeing their starter minutes being cut. AJ had Mark Smith guarding him he should have scored 25 points not 10. We know Mark is a bad defender and was put on AJ because Counzo knew he wouldn’t put pressure on Mark. I love AJ’s hustle plays, but he plays a lot of minuets for the little scoring and effect on the offense he does. Kipper is what he is, we all hoped he would be the player we saw in flashes of last year. Unfortunately he is the player that we saw last year. When he is hot ride him, when he’s not he should be sitting.

Freshmen are going to have clunkers and Ayo made an early mistake that took him out of the game. It is tough to get in the flow of the game, if you miss a lot of time due to fouls. My guess is that BU thought maybe the moment was to big for AG and didn’t want to hurt his confidence. He is the coach and a good one at that so, why would I questions his thought process.(yes it’s a fan forum) To me the discussion is AG vs AJ not AG vs TU. AG has shown some great flashes but also has made terrible decisions with the ball. I’m assuming that’s why he didn’t see any minuets in this game.

Trent needs help and I don’t care who steps up. Until someone else decides they are the guy, then regardless who coaches, the Illini will continue to lose games to quality opponents.

 

[SKane]

I suppose if you accept the idea that we are going to give a coach four years no matter what, then the huge buyouts for years 1-3 don't matter very much. Is the buyout $12,000,000? Not gonna fire him. Is the buyout $12.00? Still not gonna fire the guy after year two.

As for me, I choose to believe the team's biggest flaw is that it is extremely young. If these guys stick around through BUs fourth term at the helm, they are going to be a pretty good team. I honestly believe that. It's just that I'm having a harder and harder time believing they all stick around.

One reason that an AD would want a low buy-out in the first two years of a contract would be if the AD decides decide to fire a coach for cause. Usually the coach gets nothing (or very little) if the firing is for cause. Most of the time, the coach will argue that cause does not exist. The buy-out sets a ceiling for the coaches' payout if a coach is fired for cause.

 

[skyIdub]

I waited to post anything until I got to watch the televised game, because watching it live, you miss out on some of the back stories. I don’t get the TU vs AG talk. This game was lost because your Junior KN and your Senior AJ didn’t rise to the occasion. You would hope they would lay it all out there. I’m ok with them both seeing their starter minutes being cut. AJ had Mark Smith guarding him he should have scored 25 points not 10. We know Mark is a bad defender and was put on AJ because Counzo knew he wouldn’t put pressure on Mark. I love AJ’s hustle plays, but he plays a lot of minuets for the little scoring and effect on the offense he does. Kipper is what he is, we all hoped he would be the player we saw in flashes of last year. Unfortunately he is the player that we saw last year. When he is hot ride him, when he’s not he should be sitting.

Freshmen are going to have clunkers and Ayo made an early mistake that took him out of the game. It is tough to get in the flow of the game, if you miss a lot of time due to fouls. My guess is that BU thought maybe the moment was to big for AG and didn’t want to hurt his confidence. He is the coach and a good one at that so, why would I questions his thought process.(yes it’s a fan forum) To me the discussion is AG vs AJ not AG vs TU. AG has shown some great flashes but also has made terrible decisions with the ball. I’m assuming that’s why he didn’t see any minuets in this game.

Trent needs help and I don’t care who steps up. Until someone else decides they are the guy, then regardless who coaches, the Illini will continue to lose games to quality opponents.

This is a total garbage take of AJ. No one on the team has played with more fire than AJ this season. He does more with less than anyone on this team.

Try again.

 

[alexander58]

Fans have a bigger impact now than they ever have. High major programs rely on boosters, sponsorships, and the goodwill of the herd. Ticket sales (i.e fan support) and other revenue isn't going to meet the targets they sold to the administration, possibly by a lot. They can't afford the alternative, but once fans leave, they need a reason to come back. The forum is not the average fan by any means, but it's a very loyal subset.

As a coach, you need support. But, if you give one second of thought to what fans think before you make a decision, you shouldn’t be coaching.

 

[Jules]

So Underwood would screw up his career here to play his walk-on son. Don’t buy it no matter what the stats say.

 

[Jules]

This is a total garbage take of AJ. No one on the team has played with more fire than AJ this season. He does more with less than anyone on this team.

Try again.

Smith only scored 5 points. AJ scored 10. I think he had a pretty good game! AJ always gives it all he has.

 

[mattcoldagelli]

You’ll never hear me criticize Whitman regarding the Underwood hire. At the time, I thought was an incredible coup, as did 99.9% of people who are paid to follow college basketball.

 

[Cook]

The bottom line is that us fans just want a program to be proud of. Certainly that would start with winning at a high level (which btw would also earn a lot of leeway and forgiveness for other things from Whitman on down). Even if we're not winning, just off the top of my head here's some things I'm sure we'd all like from our coach:

Avoid a recruiting bungle like the THT situation that makes UI look bad, demonstrate you're a tireless recruiter and relationship builder (particularly in our own state and even when those areas don't have a recruit you're after at that moment), maintain strong bonds and open dialogue with players and their parents, be viewed as a fair, just, and praiseworthy leader and developer of young men athletically and personally, demonstrate decision making that is irreproachable so as to avoid even a hint of nepotism, don't repeatedly lose your cool and go apesh** on your players during games (key word repeatedly), and last but not least... win decisively more than your share of coaching match-ups, show an astute well-conceived game plan, line-up, and substitution strategy. Demonstrate you can effectively install and teach your offense and defense in practice that results in correct execution in games and shows a continuous forward progress/improvement.

 

[GortTheRobot]

You’ll never hear me criticize Whitman regarding the Underwood hire. At the time, I thought was an incredible coup, as did 99.9% of people who are paid to follow college basketball.

Yep. Although I have serious doubts about him lasting any more than two seasons after this one, it was a move that was applauded by more than just Illini fans.

Meaning two more additional seasons, not just these first two.

 

[Cook]

This is a total garbage take of AJ. No one on the team has played with more fire than AJ this season. He does more with less than anyone on this team.

Try again.

Yep, it was everyone not named Trent, AJ, or Giorgi who were the problem, we got what we needed from them.

 

[SKane]

I don't have any problem with the hire. Just about everyone thought it was excellent.

I do have a problem with the contract that Whitman gave BU and Lovie.

I seem to recall that Whitman said that he was looking for "demonstrable results" in football and basketball. I don't know whether Whitman ever revealed what he meant by "demonstrable results" but he clearly believes that Lovie achieved them. As for BU, I guess we will see whether the season turns around somehow.

 

[Deleted member 626650]

You’ll never hear me criticize Whitman regarding the Underwood hire. At the time, I thought was an incredible coup, as did 99.9% of people who are paid to follow college basketball.

I was cautiously optimistic, but firmly on the Keatts hype train.

 

[Jules]

We must have a lot of attorneys on here that know a lot about contract law.

 

[ChuckM]

AJ had Mark Smith guarding him he should have scored 25 points not 10. We know Mark is a bad defender and was put on AJ because Counzo knew he wouldn’t put pressure on Mark. I love AJ’s hustle plays, but he plays a lot of minuets for the little scoring and effect on the offense he does. Kipper is what he is, we all hoped he would be the player we saw in flashes of last year. Unfortunately he is the player that we saw last year. When he is hot ride him, when he’s not he should be sitting.

I'm not sure M. Smith was as bad a defender as many think he was. I'm thinking it had a lot to do with Underwood's defense instead.

According to defensive ratings when you compare his rating to last year they are worlds apart. (108.8 to 96.1) Frazier's is 104.6, Ayo - 102.4, Kipper - 105.5, and Jordan - 102.3. Now I know that Illinois' schedule has been harder but read anything on Mark Smith and they will say what a good defender he has been this year.

 

[FlyinIllini22]

I just want to point out that Ayo didn't foul out. We might have gotten another 10 minutes out of him but will never know. Obviously I disagree with the thinking of sitting a guy in the first half with 2 fouls.

 

[ChuckM]

I just want to point out that Ayo didn't foul out. We might have gotten another 10 minutes out of him but will never know. Obviously I disagree with the thinking of sitting a guy in the first half with 2 fouls.

It's not all about fouling out. If he would have stayed in after picking up 2 fouls in less than 5 minutes he would have had to back off the rest of the half and not played aggressively. If he picked up his 3rd foul in the first half then ithe same would be said for how he played in the second half. The right thing to do was sit him.

I'm also not sure if the Illini aren't better with either Trent or Ayo on the floor instead of both of them on at the same time.

 

[Rap73]

It's not all about fouling out. If he would have stayed in after picking up 2 fouls in less than 5 minutes he would have had to back off the rest of the half and not played aggressively. If he picked up his 3rd foul in the first half then ithe same would be said for how he played in the second half. The right thing to do was sit him.

I'm also not sure if the Illini aren't better with either Trent or Ayo on the floor instead of both of them on at the same time.

I WOULD LIKE to see a lineup of Ayo at the point, Trent and A J on the wings and Samba and Georgi at the 5 and 4.

 

[SKane]

We must have a lot of attorneys on here that know a lot about contract law.

There is at least one of them.

 

[dbeverly26]

I'm not sure M. Smith was as bad a defender as many think he was. I'm thinking it had a lot to do with Underwood's defense instead.

According to defensive ratings when you compare his rating to last year they are worlds apart. (108.8 to 96.1) Frazier's is 104.6, Ayo - 102.4, Kipper - 105.5, and Jordan - 102.3. Now I know that Illinois' schedule has been harder but read anything on Mark Smith and they will say what a good defender he has been this year.

Defensive Rating is not a particularly useful stat in the context you've provided. The only individual stats on defense that we have are steals and blocks. For the rest of the rating, it is completely dependent on team defense. As you might expect, anyone would look better having Tilmon standing behind him as opposed to Mike Finke, or GB. (And as far as "Underwood's defense" goes, DRtg heavily rewards steals, so you'd expect that system to kick out better numbers for guards than a dull, garden-variety defense would.)

It's not unreasonable to say that Smith has improved, or at the very least is playing better than last year. I'd go so far as to say that's expected. But it's kind of disingenuous to look at who his teammates are, and the fact that he's made the leap from frosh to soph. and say that he's a different player just because of the system he's in.

 

[Deleted member 11196]

You need to pay better attention because I have clearly said on many posts that there is absolutely no way Illinois is making a change. I have argued actually with people who believe there is even a wild wild chance. But just because you have negotiated a terrible contract that locks you in long term (not just this year), and just because it is almost impossible to make a change for PR reasons (which IMO is absolutely true), that does not mean that you have made a good coaching choice on someone who is a good "fit" or that the contract/buyout you have given the aforementioned coach is a justifiably good contract (which is what some posters are arguing). Both of them were bad decisions that are hard to reverse, both from a financial perspective (exposure) AND PR. We are stuck!

With all due respect sir, I wasn't even responding to your post - So it's not necessary for you to attempt to scold this 85 year old fan... Nor was I actually thinking about contracts nor the quality of the hiring decision. It was merely a generalized reaction to what I view as the predominant line being hashed out on this board. A coach must win, and win often, and additionally they must win NOW... As soon as a coach loses a game that some fan believed in their mind should have been won, they call for the coaches head... And with each new hire, the honeymoon seems to get shorter and shorter... Just an observation.

 

[destindog]

Just curious but why is DaMonte Williams not getting much time especially over Feliz? I thought he was a good defensive player last year. I haven't seen all the games and I could be wrong but it seems he played more last year than this year. Seems Feliz drives into the lane a lot but can't do anything once he is there.

 

[UncleBob]

With all due respect sir, I wasn't even responding to your post - So it's not necessary for you to attempt to scold this 85 year old fan... Nor was I actually thinking about contracts nor the quality of the hiring decision. It was merely a generalized reaction to what I view as the predominant line being hashed out on this board. A coach must win, and win often, and additionally they must win NOW... As soon as a coach loses a game that some fan believed in their mind should have been won, they call for the coaches head... And with each new hire, the honeymoon seems to get shorter and shorter... Just an observation.

Bravo!!