NCAA Tournament Bracketology

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#51
Lunardi still has us as an 8 seed after the IU win
The great and powerful Lunardi had us as an 8 seed since before the Penn State road victory. Four game winning streak later, we still haven't moved off the 8. He might be losing some of his magic.
Lunardi doesn't seem to be high on illinois, or big ten. Heard him last night on ESPN radio and he downplayed how good people think the big ten conference is this year. Not sure what his deal is this year. Also not sure how illinois has been stuck as an 8 seed every updated bracket for the last 2 weeks as Illinois has won 4 in a row including a top 10 win on the road.
 
#52
No one knows exactly how the decisions will be made because there is a human factor. Net is a guidance. I don’t believe tv matchups should be a part of seeding, but clearly they are. I assume that comes into play after the selections are made. There was a point of emphasis in the past to weigh the last 10 more heavily than the earlier games. That was taken out several years ago and they are supposed to weigh all games the same. Of course the human element comes into play at that point. If you look at the AP poll they clearly have more of a recency bias. I feel good about where we are and the way we are playing. That’s all we can control at this point, so the rest is just noise to me. 🤷‍♂️

Other than the tourney winners, it never seemed to me that conference tourney games meant as much as regular season games. I’ve never heard how that is addressed officially. Anyone know? McCamey’s last year we had a decent tourney run but it didn’t seem to matter iirc.
I think they took out the last ten because there were a good number of instances where it really didn't make sense. a team might finish 4-6 but five losses on the road to ranked opponents. Situations like that.

Your point about the AP rankings is exactly right and you just know that the committee is considering that type of thing as well, which they should.

I think the tourney games matter although if the committee is meeting ahead of those and slotting teams there's a certain bias to thinking you were right when you spoke out on Monday even if Wednesday and Thursday games might paint a different picture.

I vaguely recall a BTT game where we thought our loss would cost us a bid and give it to the team that beat us. Instead we got in and the other team didn't? Not sure.

Nice to be off the bubble and just pissing and moaning about seed.
 
#53
There is a chance on Selection Sunday that 8 B1G teams are in that 3-6 range. So there's a chance we deserve a 6 but drop to a 7 to try and seperate that cluster.
 
#54
Yes, which is odd because last bracket he had us playing a lower seeded 1. Kansas is the #1 overall so i am very frustrated at this and i would not be shocked if they put us up for a possible match with self to create a buzz. I dont want that. We really need to win another 4 or so games in a row
Just because we keep winning doesnt mean we move up. The teams above us or close to us need to lost to jump them. Maybe beating OSU at OSU would help us jump them.
Baylor or Sand Deigo State losing doesnt really help us any, Now Texas Tech or someone like that could move us up.
Iowa and OSU are both ranked above us, so...
 
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#55
the Front Range
Iowa and OSU are both ranked above us, so...
opportunities to make a few more statements 😉

I bet we finish with a 6 or 7 seed depending how many Ws we rack up. 6 if we win out and 7 if we lose out. The BTT is sorta separate in my mind. I doubly it greatly factors unless we totally bomb.
 
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#57
We got 2 huge Quad 1 opportunities right in front of us. If they want to prove they are not an 8/9 seed then that chance is right in front of them. Win these games and the computers will like us a whole lot more.
 
#58
Lunardi doesn't seem to be high on illinois, or big ten. Heard him last night on ESPN radio and he downplayed how good people think the big ten conference is this year. Not sure what his deal is this year. Also not sure how illinois has been stuck as an 8 seed every updated bracket for the last 2 weeks as Illinois has won 4 in a row including a top 10 win on the road.
If this was the ACC he would have 10 teams seeded at 6 or better
 
#59
South Carolina
Lunardi doesn't seem to be high on illinois, or big ten. Heard him last night on ESPN radio and he downplayed how good people think the big ten conference is this year. Not sure what his deal is this year. Also not sure how illinois has been stuck as an 8 seed every updated bracket for the last 2 weeks as Illinois has won 4 in a row including a top 10 win on the road.
Given we've not been in the tourney for several years, I had forgotten how frustrated I always get with Lunardi at this time of year. I used to write him all the time about his ILLINI prognostications. He routinely projects us at about 2 slots worse than the NCAA Selection Committee. I just checked Katz who currently has us as a 6-seed (which is more accurate as of March 3rd.) Bottom-line, it's obvious that Lunardi works for ESPN. He just hates the Illini.

Vitale and Bilas have traditionally shown us more love than anyone else at the flagship. I think I once tried to bet Lunardi $100 that we'd end up with a better seed than his final bracket had projected. His expertise is around identifying the bubble teams.....not projected Big 10 seeds.
 
#61
I’d be curious to see what posters were saying in 2009 (5-seed) and 2013 (7-seed). I remember oh so specifically Clark Kellog saying on air while we were losing to Purdue in the 2009 BTT that we’d be an “8 or a 9.”
 
#62
Duke’s NET is 6. One could argue Lunardi has them to low. KY is 14, so 3 may be right. Haven’t really paid much attention to what teams are 2, 3, and 4 seeds.
So is the NET going to be the sole source for seeding? What about strength of schedule, road wins, etc.?
 
#63
New York
So is the NET going to be the sole source for seeding? What about strength of schedule, road wins, etc.?
NET is one thing they consider. It’s a sorting tool that helps them with their analysis but it’s not the final word.
 
#64
Lunardi doesn't seem to be high on illinois, or big ten. Heard him last night on ESPN radio and he downplayed how good people think the big ten conference is this year. Not sure what his deal is this year. Also not sure how illinois has been stuck as an 8 seed every updated bracket for the last 2 weeks as Illinois has won 4 in a row including a top 10 win on the road.
Any of the big name analysts is going to have some conflicts of interest or at least some bias. I take a lot more stock in the bracket matrix. The herd still has us as an 8 seed, albeit the top 8 seed. AP has us in the top 25, so there's a disconnect in perceptions somewhere. That said, looking at the bracket matrix consensus, I'm not seeing a lot of teams ahead of us that I think are definitely behind us.

Fact is, we struggled early, and that will still be on our resume. How we finish could easily move us up several lines. I see a number of 6/7 teams that we're pretty close to.
 
#65
Admin
Here's a repost from the February thread, the comparison of the seeds & the NET rankings of last year's NCAA Tournament teams.

(Skipped everything below the 11 seeds as they were all automatic qualifiers)

* = Automatic qualifier

2019 NCAA Tournament

Seed___NET___Team
1______1_____Virginia
1______2_____Gonzaga
1______3_____Duke*
1______7_____North Carolina

2______5_____Tennessee
2______6_____Kentucky
2______8_____Michigan State*
2______9_____Michigan

3______4_____Houston
3______10____Texas Tech
3______12____Purdue
3______14____LSU

4______11____Virginia Tech
4______16____Florida State
4______20____Kansas
4______24____Kansas State

5______17____Wisconsin
5______18____Auburn*
5______19____Mississippi State
5______28____Marquette

6______15____Buffalo*
6______21____Iowa State*
6______26____Villanova*
6______27____Maryland

7______13____Wofford*
7______22____Louisville
7______23____Nevada
7______25____Cincinnati*

8______29____Utah State*
8______34____VCU
8______36____Ole Miss
8______42____Syracuse

9______30____UCF
9______37____Oklahoma
9______39____Baylor
9______45____Washington

10_____31____Florida
10_____43____Iowa
10_____57____Seton Hall
10_____61____Minnesota

11_____32____Saint Mary's*
11_____47____Belmont (Last 4 In)
11_____55____Ohio State
11_____56____Temple (Last 4 In)
11_____63____Arizona State (Last 4 In)
11_____73____St. John's (Last 4 In)


First 4 Out-

60 UNC Greensboro
59 Alabama
52 TCU
54 Indiana

 
#66
So, it's not a perfect comparison, but here was our 2009 resume that the committee deemed worthy of a 5-seed (there was no NET then, and I know they don't consider conference record ... but I'm including rankings and conference record to provide SOME type of comparison metric):

Record: 24-9 (11-7)
AP Rank: RV (was #23 to end the regular season)
RPI Rank: 23
SOS Ranking: 23
BTT Record: 1-1 (W vs. Michigan, L vs. #24 Purdue)
Ranked Wins: vs. #25 Missouri (St. Louis), at #9 Purdue, vs. #25 Michigan, vs. #12 Purdue
Record vs. NCAAT Teams: 9-6
Bad Losses: None, really ... possibly vs. PSU at home?

Now, this year's team (replacing Ranked with Quad 1?), as of today:

Record: 20-9 (12-6)
AP Rank: 23
NET Rank: 36
SOS Ranking: 24
BTT Record: N/A
Quad 1 Wins: vs. #24 Michigan, at #30 Wisconsin, at #35 Purdue, at #24 Michigan, at #26 Penn State
Record vs. Probable NCAAT Teams: 6-7
Bad Losses: vs. #108 Miami (FL), vs. #92 Missouri (St. Louis)

So, I'd say for this point in the season, we have a pretty darn high ceiling, and a 5-seed or 6-seed is totally attainable. Add a split with OSU and Iowa, and that resume looks a LOT better, IMO. Add a sweep of the two, and we are definitely knocking on the door of protected seed territory. At that point, the BTT would just be icing on the cake, with us playing for even better seeding. I would say at WORST, we are looking at an 8-seed or a 9-seed ... Lunardi is just lazy and doesn't care about us and clearly hasn't updated our spot, haha. I know that sounds conspiracy-theory like, but if we are an 8-seed now - as of TODAY - then we should have been out before the PSU win, let alone a four-game winning streak on top of that.

We control our destiny, and we can practically erase those early season losses in the next two weeks. Let's go do it.
 
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#67
So is the NET going to be the sole source for seeding? What about strength of schedule, road wins, etc.?
I never said NET would be the lone source for seeding. NET supposedly takes into consideration some/all of things you mentioned. And with that, Duke is at 6 in NET and KY is still at 14. Divide those numbers by 4 and the seedings where they are being considered seem about right. Last year, the team that was at 6 in NET was a 2 seed, while the team with 14 was a 3 seed. Divide the 36 that the Illini are at in NET by 4 and you get a 9 seed. Last year the NET 36 team had an 8 seed.

But you do realize none of this matters. This is just some people guessing where teams will be seeded -- for the most part based upon the NET and then their own biases. Only thing that matters is the committee, and I'm sure they will take other things into consideration because last year the seedings didn't jive with the NET. I will point out though that last year the 6 seeds from major conferences had NETs of 21, 26, and 27, so a fair amount of difference to where the Illini are right now. Win the next two or split and then have a good BTT run and they can get there, but I don't think they're a 6 seed right now. But one thing I can guarantee is that wherever the Illini are seeded a good many people on here will likely think it is too low.
 
#68
Forgottonia
Here's a repost from the February thread, the comparison of the seeds & the NET rankings of last year's NCAA Tournament teams.

(Skipped everything below the 11 seeds as they were all automatic qualifiers)

* = Automatic qualifier
A number of teams in the 30’s NET in the 8-9 seeds, so I guess based on that it’s easy to see why some would have us there. I still think we have a chance to end up a 6-7. But based solely on these 2019 seedings we might need to win 3 or 4 more to get there.
 
#69
Here's a repost from the February thread, the comparison of the seeds & the NET rankings of last year's NCAA Tournament teams.

(Skipped everything below the 11 seeds as they were all automatic qualifiers)

* = Automatic qualifier
A number of teams in the 30’s NET in the 8-9 seeds, so I guess based on that it’s easy to see why some would have us there. I still think we have a chance to end up a 6-7. But based solely on these 2019 seedings we might need to win 3 or 4 more to get there.
Seeing that list does make more sense as to the 8-9 seed and that’s honestly where I am expecting us to end up. I’m hopeful that a couple wins this week plus a solid showing next week would change that. Unfortunately it appears that there’s so much placed on our non-conference schedule that I’m not overly optimistic it would bring us up far in the NET
 
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#71
I see the Big Ten with multiple teams in the sweet 16, but none in the Final Four. It's the deepest conference in the country(by far), but MSU without Langford and Maryland without depth....no true threat to cut the nets down.
If his were a normal year, I would agree with you, but here are no great teams and few if any really good teams. Baylor right now is a No. 1 seed.....color me very unimpressed. KU and UK are pretty tough and I'd like to see us stay away from them, unless Azibuke's ankle keeps him out.
 
#72
If his were a normal year, I would agree with you, but here are no great teams and few if any really good teams. Baylor right now is a No. 1 seed.....color me very unimpressed. KU and UK are pretty tough and I'd like to see us stay away from them, unless Azibuke's ankle keeps him out.
I think Dotson is the key as much as Azibuke. If either get injured/foul trouble, Kansas could be gone.
 
#74
How can Michigan receive a better seed than Illinois when we beat them twice and are substantially ahead of them in the conference standing? It seems as though those putting these mock brackets together put more stock in what teams did in November and December than what they have done in January and February which doesn't make sense to me. Isn't the whole idea supposed to be to improve as the season progresses. It appears that one basket at the end of the Miami game in December could be the difference between an 8 seed and a 5 or 6 seed. Frustrating!
 
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#75
Tyngsborough, MA
How can Michigan receive a better seed than Illinois when we beat them twice and are substantially ahead of them in the conference standing? It seems as though those putting these mock brackets together put more stock in what teams did in November and December than what they have done in January and February which doesn't make sense to me. Isn't the whole idea supposed to be to improve as the season progresses. It appears that one basket at the end of the Miami game in December could be the difference between an 8 seed and a 5 or 6 seed. Frustrating!
I may be exaggerating, but that was Bobby Knight's approach. He did pretty well.
 
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