NCAA Tournament Bracketology

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#76
I'd really like to see us get in the 20's in NET which means we need to go at least 2-1 here on out. That would definitely bump us off the 8 line.

COVID-19: First team (Chi State) cancels away game in WA due to virus concerns. Watch out for what happens in that Spokane, WA region.
 
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#77
Springfiled, IL.
No help on NET from last night. Purdue and Rutgers only moved up 2 spots and Iowa drop out of the top 30 so are game on Sunday is now a Quad 2 game.
 
#78
South Carolina
I'm taking this one game at a time. If Illinois beats OSU, they move up to a 7 seed, and if they lose, they'll likely remain an 8 seed.
We're NOT an 8-seed currently. 100% guaranteed. I can easily find 8 teams in the Composite Matrix who will be ranked behind us. A team that is 1/2 game out of 1st place in the Big 10 will not be an 8 seed.
 
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#79
Chicago, IL
I'd really like to see us get in the 20's in NET which means we need to go at least 2-1 here on out. That would definitely bump us off the 8 line.

COVID-19: First team (Chi State) cancels away game in WA due to virus concerns. Watch out for what happens in that Spokane, WA region.
Not to be rude, just curious. How does Chicago State still have a D1 basketball team?
 
#80
New York
I'd really like to see us get in the 20's in NET which means we need to go at least 2-1 here on out. That would definitely bump us off the 8 line.

COVID-19: First team (Chi State) cancels away game in WA due to virus concerns. Watch out for what happens in that Spokane, WA region.
Chicago State was headed to Seattle. Spokane is a couple hundred miles away, and all of the reported cases have been in Seattle. Unless there are reported cases extending out toward Spokane in the next two weeks, I wouldn’t expect a cancellation or move. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the NCAA is looking at backup plans right now.
 
#82
We're NOT an 8-seed currently. 100% guaranteed. I can easily find 8 teams in the Composite Matrix who will be ranked behind us. A team that is 1/2 game out of 1st place in the Big 10 will not be an 8 seed.
You're right. We're not any seed currently. People have to relax about these mock brackets. Just people guessing based on the NET and their biases. Only seedings that matter are those released on March 15. Just win baby.
 
#83
New York
Mizzou down to 93 in the NET. If they fall out of Top 100, our loss moves to Q3. Always want them to lose but hoping they don’t fall below 100.
 
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#85
I'd really like to see us get in the 20's in NET which means we need to go at least 2-1 here on out. That would definitely bump us off the 8 line.

COVID-19: First team (Chi State) cancels away game in WA due to virus concerns. Watch out for what happens in that Spokane, WA region.
I'm not sure that will be enough. Not much movement in the rankings this late in the season. Thursday @ OSU might not even get us into the top 30 with a win.
 
#86
I'm not sure that will be enough. Not much movement in the rankings this late in the season. Thursday @ OSU might not even get us into the top 30 with a win.
You do realize "into the top 30" and "in the 20's" are at most 1 number apart right?
 
#88
Forgottonia
We're NOT an 8-seed currently. 100% guaranteed. I can easily find 8 teams in the Composite Matrix who will be ranked behind us. A team that is 1/2 game out of 1st place in the Big 10 will not be an 8 seed.
There was a nice interview with brad Evans on Werner’s latest podcast. He’s about as locked into the process as anyone. He specifically pointed out that conference record has zero bearing. They don’t look at it.
 
#89
What I'm struggling with is why a Missouri loss isn't an anchor around Auburn's neck, who the brackets seem to still love. Understood its road vs. neutral site, but they haven't beaten anyone decent on the road and their most impressive win is at home against a very good, but not great, Kentucky team.

Would love to get off of the 8/9 line, but I'm so glad to be complaining about seeding this time of year rather than figuring out if we will get in. This is fun!
 
#90
Chicago State was headed to Seattle. Spokane is a couple hundred miles away, and all of the reported cases have been in Seattle. Unless there are reported cases extending out toward Spokane in the next two weeks, I wouldn’t expect a cancellation or move. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the NCAA is looking at backup plans right now.
Don't want to fear monger, but I guess I will. My wife's best friend from her youth lives less than a mile from the nursing home in Kirkland and Seattle is the gateway to Alaska, so I have been paying a lot of attention to what is going on in Seattle. Estimates through DNA analysis by a reputable scientist (@trvrb) are now that there are likely around five hundred infected persons in the area (a range of 80-1500) as of March 2, and that it will double every 6.1 days. Lack of testing of anyone who is not severely ill and the long incubation time is keeping the official number low at present. One case has already made it to North Carolina from Kirkland. Teachers are threatening to boycott work because there is no effective containment measures being adopted. I expect the number to grow considerably over time and as testing becomes more available. Given the connections between Seattle and Spokane, it is not unreasonable to expect that there may well be coronavirus concerns in Spokane by the time of the NCAA tourney. There could be action taken such as limiting large gatherings occurring in the NW by that time.
Here is an article discussing issue and quoting @trvrb
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03...us-without-dramatic-action-new-analysis-says/
But I am a lawyer and not a doctor so take what I say with the appropriate skepticism.
 
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#91
Just glad to be needing to buy an annual USA Today again with all the teams breakdowns, so I can over think both my brackets as well as my wagers on the first 2 days of the tournament.
 
#92
I'd really like to see us get in the 20's in NET which means we need to go at least 2-1 here on out. That would definitely bump us off the 8 line.

COVID-19: First team (Chi State) cancels away game in WA due to virus concerns. Watch out for what happens in that Spokane, WA region.
Not college basketball, but in Columbus, OH, they are canceling the expo portion of the Arnold Sports Festival. They're still having the competitions, but closing those to spectators too. Will be a big hit to Columbus as it usually brings in 200,000 people through the course of the event and brings $50M to the area. During the announcement, they did mention that this is a unique situation because of how many of the athletes competing come from outside the U.S.
 
#95
There was a nice interview with brad Evans on Werner’s latest podcast. He’s about as locked into the process as anyone. He specifically pointed out that conference record has zero bearing. They don’t look at it.
Well, I didn't listen to the podcast, but I'd suggest that there's a way he's right without totally dismissing conference performance.

One of the reasons that conference record and last ten were publicly minimized/dismissed is that they're not fair. Some teams had tougher conference schedules than others. Some teams had an easier run for their last 10 games than other teams. So the idea that you'd fix your attention on a number that doesn't have a equitable application across the college basketball landscape is not good.

That said, I have zero doubt that your conference performance does matter. Your late season performance does matter. These will be evidenced by record but it has to be taken in context.

On the positive side for us, road wins have always been a big part of evaluating performance and we really look good there.

I think this article from a year ago, talking about the '18 selections ahead of the '19 selections was interesting.

The Golden Eagles are No. 21 in the NET rankings and No. 30 on KenPom.com, largely because they have had a lot of close wins and a couple of blowout losses. (Both NET and KenPom are deeply rooted in margin of victory and efficiency.) But they have seven Quadrant 1 wins—tied for the third-most in the nation.

As a result, the committee disregarded the new sorting tool and vaulted Marquette ahead of a lot of teams—including NET No. 10 Virginia Tech, which was left out of the top 16 likely because of some combination of its 3-4 Quadrant 1 record and its abysmal nonconference schedule.

Two other teams were positively impacted by Quadrant 1 wins. Michigan State was a No. 2 seed with a nation-best nine Quadrant 1 wins, despite entering the day on a three-game losing streak. And Kansas—ranked 18th in NET—was the committee's No. 10 overall team thanks to eight Quadrant 1 victories. Beating quality opponents matters, folks.
 
#96
Recency bias should not play into who gets into the tourney; however, it may affect seeding. NET has us sitting as a 8 or 9 seed, but I think we get a higher seed based on how we've played since January and the teams we beat especially on the road. Could be wrong though as my wife reminds me constantly.
 
#97
There was a nice interview with brad Evans on Werner’s latest podcast. He’s about as locked into the process as anyone. He specifically pointed out that conference record has zero bearing. They don’t look at it.
OK, how about the fact that we have more Quag 1A wins than anyone in the country and have a chance to add to that tomorrow?
 
#98
Not college basketball, but in Columbus, OH, they are canceling the expo portion of the Arnold Sports Festival. They're still having the competitions, but closing those to spectators too. Will be a big hit to Columbus as it usually brings in 200,000 people through the course of the event and brings $50M to the area. During the announcement, they did mention that this is a unique situation because of how many of the athletes competing come from outside the U.S.
Your last sentence was the decision maker. Anything where flights and people are coming in from overseas is a different animal.
 
#99
South Carolina
Just glad to be needing to buy an annual USA Today again with all the teams breakdowns, so I can over think both my brackets as well as my wagers on the first 2 days of the tournament.
While always painful to do do in the past ---- I also once again look forward to that game in the March Madness bracket where I finally have to go against my heart and choose our opponent to win.
 
Biden was close, but off on Virginia (for sure) and Oklahoma (probably). I enjoyed the way he said Minnesota, though.
 
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