There was a nice interview with brad Evans on Werner’s latest podcast. He’s about as locked into the process as anyone. He specifically pointed out that conference record has zero bearing. They don’t look at it.
Well, I didn't listen to the podcast, but I'd suggest that there's a way he's right without totally dismissing conference performance.
One of the reasons that conference record and last ten were publicly minimized/dismissed is that they're not fair. Some teams had tougher conference schedules than others. Some teams had an easier run for their last 10 games than other teams. So the idea that you'd fix your attention on a number that doesn't have a equitable application across the college basketball landscape is not good.
That said, I have zero doubt that your conference
performance does matter. Your late season
performance does matter. These will be evidenced by record but it has to be taken in context.
On the positive side for us, road wins have always been a big part of evaluating performance and we really look good there.
I think
this article from a year ago, talking about the '18 selections ahead of the '19 selections was interesting.
The Golden Eagles are No. 21 in the NET rankings and No. 30 on KenPom.com, largely because they have had a lot of close wins and a couple of blowout losses. (Both NET and KenPom are deeply rooted in margin of victory and efficiency.) But they have seven Quadrant 1 wins—tied for the third-most in the nation.
As a result, the committee disregarded the new sorting tool and vaulted Marquette ahead of a lot of teams—including NET No. 10 Virginia Tech, which was left out of the top 16 likely because of some combination of its 3-4 Quadrant 1 record and its abysmal nonconference schedule.
Two other teams were positively impacted by Quadrant 1 wins. Michigan State was a No. 2 seed with a nation-best nine Quadrant 1 wins, despite entering the day on a three-game losing streak. And Kansas—ranked 18th in NET—was the committee's No. 10 overall team thanks to eight Quadrant 1 victories. Beating quality opponents matters, folks.