NCAA Tournament Bracketology

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#4
South Carolina
Jerry Palm seems to have it right this morning on the CBS web site. He has us safely securing a 6-seed and I would argue that we should still be higher than Penn State, whom he has as a 5-seed. (They've lost 5 of 6, finished 11-9 in the Big 10 and those factors will count......at least in the backs of the minds of the Committee.) Generally speaking and without knowing anything about prospective conference tournament upsets, I would suggest:

Win 3 games = 4 seed (24-10 and Big 10 champs)
Win 2 games = 5 seed (23-11)
Win 1 game = 6 seed (22-11)
Win 0 games = 7 seed (21-11)

A 6-seed gives us a game against an 11-seed, which could be one of the First 4 teams (i.e. currently UCLA, Cincinnati, Wichita St. or Richmond.)
 
#5
Caveat: haven't followed bracketology closely this year, and I'm not factoring how we do in the BTT.

My impression is that we're a 7 seed. We have 1 bad loss, not a big deal, and 1 Q2 loss. We have 13 Q1 games, with a 5-8 record. There are 19 teams that have a .500 or better Q1 winning percentage, and another 9 that are reasonably close to us in NET with 5 or more Q1 wins. So as it stands, I think our best case is a 6 seed, and we could easily be a 7 seed. I'd be a little disappointed with an 8 seed if the bracket came out today, but it wouldn't shock me.

I would guess that every win in the BTT is worth half a seed line, and would give us a case for the 5 line if we won it.

As a fan, I'm very happy with what these guys have done. Huge turn-around from last season, playing tough despite an inconsistant start to the season, national ranking, one game from co-champs in the BIG, top group in the BTT, and a couple NBA caliber players who are fun to watch. Many others who have dedicated themselves to their role and given great cohesion. A fun bunch to follow this year. Hope they can keep it rolling, but really, I'm thrilled with the progress.
 
#6
I don’t understand how we aren’t a 6 seed at *worst*. This talk of a 7-8 seed seems ridiculous to me. What’s the point in the AP and coaches poll if we are ranked 21?

if we win Friday I think we deserve a 5 seed, just my opinion
 
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#8
Jerry Palm seems to have it right this morning on the CBS web site. He has us safely securing a 6-seed and I would argue that we should still be higher than Penn State, whom he has as a 5-seed. (They've lost 5 of 6, finished 11-9 in the Big 10 and those factors will count......at least in the backs of the minds of the Committee.) Generally speaking and without knowing anything about prospective conference tournament upsets, I would suggest:

Win 3 games = 4 seed (24-10 and Big 10 champs)
Win 2 games = 5 seed (23-11)
Win 1 game = 6 seed (22-11)
Win 0 games = 7 seed (21-11)

A 6-seed gives us a game against an 11-seed, which could be one of the First 4 teams (i.e. currently UCLA, Cincinnati, Wichita St. or Richmond.)
He also has us lined up for a faceoff with Duke in the second round (the real second round).
 
#9
I don’t understand how we aren’t a 6 seed at *worst*. This talk of a 7-8 seed seems ridiculous to me. What’s the point in the AP and coaches poll if we are ranked 21?

if we win Friday I think we deserve a 5 seed, just my opinion
Depends on what you think the committee will care about most. I think our seeding depends heavily on how much they care about the apparent strength of the B1G. Right now, our NET is 38 and our RPI is 46. Those are 9/10 rankings. We've played the most Quad 1A games (11) and have a 4-7 record (5-8 Q1 overall). Nothing to write home about, but that lines up more with a 6/7 seed. Honestly, our AP ranking is probably the best thing out there right now for us.

NET, RPI, kenpom, etc. are far from perfect, I'm not trying to argue that. It's basically a guessing game as to what you think will be most important. Personally I see these as the outcome of the tournament:

Lose Friday: 7 seed (current bracketmatrix line)
Lose Saturday: 6 seed
Lose Sunday: 6 seed
Win Sunday: 5 seed

I don't see us pushing into protected territory unless we absolutely light up a couple teams this weekend. Making the championship game is interesting. Two more Q1 wins is awesome, does it mean we get to a 5 seed? I would like to think yes, but I'm inclined to say no, just because of how weak our NET ranking is. The losses to Mizzou and Miami are weighing more negatively than any win we have (fun fact: no wins against NET top 20 teams). We win those we are probably a top 15 team.
 
#10
Andy Katz has us in the Greensboro bracket as a 5 seed playing 4 seed Duke. I think none of us would be surprised to get screwed over like that...but knocking off Duke in front of their home crowd would be extra sweet.
 
#11
Sunday's B1G championship game will have ZERO impact on the seeding. By that time, the bracket is set and the only situation where that game matters is if someone like Purdue was still alive for an automatic berth. They would have two brackets ready, but the only changes would be for the 10/11 seeds, not the higher seeds, IMO.

I think we're a 7 now, and can move up to a 6 with a win Friday (definitely with another win Saturday), but I don't see a 5 or 4 happening.
 
#12
Andy Katz has us in the Greensboro bracket as a 5 seed playing 4 seed Duke. I think none of us would be surprised to get screwed over like that...but knocking off Duke in front of their home crowd would be extra sweet.
I’d love to play Duke as a 5v4 and I think we match up well with them as long as we play the slightest bit of defense
 
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#13
M tipping over
Pdx
Well if we pull off a 5 seed, not sure I want to play Liberty as a 12. They've won 30 games already.
 
#14
Andy Katz has us in the Greensboro bracket as a 5 seed playing 4 seed Duke. I think none of us would be surprised to get screwed over like that...but knocking off Duke in front of their home crowd would be extra sweet.
yes it would be sweet...but it wouldn't be totally home crowd considering many of the tickets are pre-sold and for every Duke fan there is an NC State or Carolina fan that is probably rooting against Duke.
 
#15
Well if we pull off a 5 seed, not sure I want to play Liberty as a 12. They've won 30 games already.
Liberty is a great example of why record should not be used to evaluate the strength of a team. Two of their wins are non-Division I, three of their wins are Quad 3, and one of their wins is Quad 2. The other 24 wins are Quad 4.
 
#17
uh, Maine
I'm happy that this thread exists on IL. Been way too long. Finally, Coach Walker can serve his 2 game suspension...(or at least 1 game)...but I'm thinking 2 games. We'll need him for the Sweet 16 game.
 
#18
I don’t understand how we aren’t a 6 seed at *worst*. This talk of a 7-8 seed seems ridiculous to me. What’s the point in the AP and coaches poll if we are ranked 21?

if we win Friday I think we deserve a 5 seed, just my opinion
Honestly, there really isn't a point to the AP and coaches poll anymore.
 
#19
Honestly, there really isn't a point to the AP and coaches poll anymore.
You might be right, but it seems everyone else’s seed projection falls pretty evenly in line with their ranking. I know our losses to Miami and Miznoz hurt but I think the committee takes into account how well the team is playing currently for those well inside the bubble
 
#20
I'd almost prefer the 6 seed to the 5 seed. The 5/12 seed matchup seems like it ends up in an upset a lot of the time.
 
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#22
The entire body of work matters here, and unfortunately the Illini's efforts prior to the first Michigan game were effectively disastrous. Their best non conference result was winning at Grand Canyon.

Incidentally, a good measure of where Illinois currently is in the bracket seeding is by looking at their strength of record metric: https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/dir/asc/view/overview/sort/sorrank

This metric more or less accurately seeds teams based on how they did against their schedule compared to an average team. Prior to yesterday's game, Illinois was sitting 27th, or at a 7 seed. Now they're up to 23rd, a 6 seed. After each win the rating increases, after each loss it decreases. It's also bullish on the entire B1G, but the conference was and is ridiculous.
 
#23
North Bethesda, Maryland
It’s ridiculous for UM and PSU to be higher seeds than we are. Iowa should be no more than the same seed, and tOSU should be on our line as well. BIG regular season doesn’t count for much if you finish in the top four of a loaded conference and teams under you are considered better.
 
#24
Orange Krush Class of 2013
Stanford, CA
I'd almost prefer the 6 seed to the 5 seed. The 5/12 seed matchup seems like it ends up in an upset a lot of the time.
Just out of curiosity, I looked up the # of wins per decade for the 11, 12, and 13 seeds. The "there's a 12-5 upset every year" doctrine is something I grew up with and has been remarkably consistent — only 2000, 2007, 2015, and 2018 haven't had one. Years without 11-6 upsets, though, are also pretty rare — only 1992, 1997, 1999, 2004. So actually, in terms of "always pulling off an upset", one could argue that 11 is the new 12. Case in point:

Years13-seed wins12-seed wins11-seed wins
1990 – 19997149
2000 – 200991613
2010 – 201981521

20 years ago, the last three or four at-large bids were almost always 12 seeds. These days most of the 12s are auto-bids. Not sure if that's due to more conferences than before, or just fewer multi-bid conferences, but whatever the reason, the average 12 seed in 2020 is not as good as in 2010 or 2000 (although I am too lazy to pull the KenPom ratings to prove this).

To make matters worse, 4 samples per year is very few, so the odds of "12 seeds are great at upsets" seeming reasonable just by chance, even over a decade of tournaments, is pretty high. In other words, the 14 to 9 discrepancy in the 90s is not that unlikely even if 12 and 11 seeds were exactly equal in those years.

At any rate, I would expect that over the next 20 years, the most likely outcome is (# of 11 seed wins) > (# of 12 seed wins) with much higher probability than when 11s and 12s were all bubble teams.

Data source (someone should probably check my counting)
 
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#25
M tipping over
Pdx
I'd love it if we could stop acting scared of teams like Liberty or GCU.
I'd love that too, but we've only just recently pulled ourselves out of irrelevance. Forgive us if we feel a little snakebit.
 
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