Really tough to explain that one, at least to me.So Michigan goes UP one in the NET after losing at home to Illinois and Illinois stays the same after winning on the road at Michigan. Explain please
So Michigan goes UP one in the NET after losing at home to Illinois and Illinois stays the same after winning on the road at Michigan. Explain please
The NET is based on your results against ALL opponents; it is not based on single head-to-head results. If everyone you've played against wins on the same night, your NET can go up even if you lose or don't play. If they all lose, your NET can drop even if you win.So Michigan goes UP one in the NET after losing at home to Illinois and Illinois stays the same after winning on the road at Michigan. Explain please
Look at Missouri and Miami's records.So Michigan goes UP one in the NET after losing at home to Illinois and Illinois stays the same after winning on the road at Michigan. Explain please
I know it does not work this way, but what would our NET be if we completely removed the Miami and Miznoz games from our schedule? I've gotta suspect we'd be top 20.
Very good explanation. ThanksNot an exact answer to your question but we dropped 14 spots in Torvik's T-Rank due to the Miami game (from 26 to 40) and 9 spots due to the Missouri game (from 31 to 40). We're now sitting at 26.
Using Torvik some more the 3 games the hurt Illinois the most (and it's not even close) were Miami, Missouri, MSU.
Illinois has a BARTHAG of 0.8796 which is pretty close to the game by game average or 0.8634.
Miami was a game score of 16.0, Missouri 40.0, and MSU 45.0. If you take those 3 games away then the new average for Illinois becomes 0.9622. That would be good enough for somewhere between 1st and 2nd in T-Rank. If instead of just fully removing those 3 games, if we instead changed all 3 to match our 4th lowest score (71.0 vs Arizona) Illinois' average Game Score would be 0.9224. That would be good enough for somewhere between 9th and 10th in T-Rank. Either way it's clear those are the 3 games holding us back the most at this point.
As you indicated, it doesn't work that way and Illinois dug itself a nice little hole with those 3 losses. The MSU one doesn't sting quite as bad because "quality losses" even when they are complete blow outs don't look as bad on your resume overall but it is definitely still holding us back in the advanced metrics.
We need to be especially careful at home against Minnesota this week. A loss there could really de-rail a lot of the momentum we've built while a win would put us in great position heading into a very tough road game @ Iowa.
Sold! I'll take the 5-seed right now; no need to play out the remainder of the regular season. Let's fast forward to the Big 10 tourney in Indy this weekend, and wait to find out our opening venue next Sunday.
Not an exact answer to your question but we dropped 14 spots in Torvik's T-Rank due to the Miami game (from 26 to 40) and 9 spots due to the Missouri game (from 31 to 40). We're now sitting at 26.
Using Torvik some more the 3 games the hurt Illinois the most (and it's not even close) were Miami, Missouri, MSU.
Illinois has a BARTHAG of 0.8796 which is pretty close to the game by game average or 0.8634.
Miami was a game score of 16.0, Missouri 40.0, and MSU 45.0. If you take those 3 games away then the new average for Illinois becomes 0.9622. That would be good enough for somewhere between 1st and 2nd in T-Rank. If instead of just fully removing those 3 games, if we instead changed all 3 to match our 4th lowest score (71.0 vs Arizona) Illinois' average Game Score would be 0.9224. That would be good enough for somewhere between 9th and 10th in T-Rank. Either way it's clear those are the 3 games holding us back the most at this point.
As you indicated, it doesn't work that way and Illinois dug itself a nice little hole with those 3 losses. The MSU one doesn't sting quite as bad because "quality losses" even when they are complete blow outs don't look as bad on your resume overall but it is definitely still holding us back in the advanced metrics.
We need to be especially careful at home against Minnesota this week. A loss there could really de-rail a lot of the momentum we've built while a win would put us in great position heading into a very tough road game @ Iowa.
Look at Missouri and Miami's records.
I guess I'm learning a little bit that NET emcompasses everything, I think.
Example: All of our wins that are considered good wins against good teams...if those teams lose out the rest of the way, then it severely affects our NET rating? We could win out, but if all our our good wins lose their value, our NET cannot go up? And those teams that we've lost to, they keep losing, our NET keeps going down.
Something like that.
Yes, as for the NET rankings, Arizona, Missouri, and Miami are all on slides thereby sucking us down more than our wins are buoying us up.Look at Missouri and Miami's records.
I get that, but even so, we've won 6 straight, while others have had slides.Look at Missouri and Miami's records.
My guess is most of our good wins have been close games and scoring margin is taken into account. Also 2 of our losses were blowouts and 2 others were to bad teams. Miami almost beat FSU which would have helped, but instead they and Mizzou keep losing.An instructive explanation of the NET.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ed-ncaa-adopts-new-college-basketball-ranking
I still don't know why we're not better ranked though...
Maybe I'm just overreacting to something I don't understand, but this tells me that we need 12 conference wins to get into the tournament. If we were to finish 11-9(a 5-6 finish)...would our NET tank bad enough to give us issues?
I can't believe they've won 6 Big Ten games in a row, three on the road....and this is even a conversation.