NET Rankings / Bracketology

Status
Not open for further replies.
#1
Gained 2 spots over the course last week in NET. Right now we're in guaranteed spot territory with a NET of 28 as only one team ever in the NET or RPI top 30 has not made the tourney.

Some posters here like the metrics for making predictions, and I'm assuming wagers. Ultimately, though, selection and seeding comes down to the team sheets. Looking at the history of those and the committee selections there are some very strong trends that predict committee selection:

- NET/RPI top 45
- 20 wins in a P5 conference
- 7 or more Q1 wins (we have 4 right now, PU and MI are so close to being Q1 we should be rooting for them)

Its been awhile since I looked at the numbers but I think it was >95% of teams with at least one of those accomplishments gets a bid. Just something to keep in mind as we hit the toughest part of the schedule... losing a few (and maybe even all) of the next handful of games isn't the end of the world.
 
#2
Purdue gains 10 spots in NET after dominating Iowa at home highlighting the effect of margin of victory and offensive efficiency. The Illini could really use a few dominant wins over good teams to boost the resume.
 
#5
At this point, if we're "just" playing to make the tourney, I'll be disappointed. These guys can earn a good seed and do some real damage in the dance.
Agreed. We need to play out our schedule at a high level to:

1. Win B10 championship
2. Get a good seed in the tourney
3. Continue to improve and make a deep run in the tourney
 
#6
My goal for this team would be to make it to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament, this is going to be more fun than we have had in a long time. 5 big ten teams in the sweet 16 is doable
 
#7
Stylin' and Profilin'
Just a question about NET - how does a conference schedule for, say, San Diego St. or Gonzaga not seriously affect their NET ranking? Wins trump everything? Asking for a friend
 
#8
My goal for this team would be to make it to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA tournament, this is going to be more fun than we have had in a long time. 5 big ten teams in the sweet 16 is doable
Our starters are as good as any and I love our team..Match ups matter but I dont wanna set limits. One game at a time, win and keep rolling. We will be in the top if not win the B10 sp after that ..Let's Roll.... We are getting better. I dont wanna set limits for our team especailly this year when there isnt an elite team like our 04 05 team. Who ever wins it will be a surprise . Why not us?
 
#9
Just a question about NET - how does a conference schedule for, say, San Diego St. or Gonzaga not seriously affect their NET ranking? Wins trump everything? Asking for a friend
It's important for those teams to not only win, but win big. They both have done that the majority of games. And they both have good wins out of conference. SDSU is 8-0 in quad 1 and 2 games. We are 7-4 in those games, but also have 2 bad losses.
 
Likes: Gamefan49
#10
Stylin' and Profilin'
It's important for those teams to not only win, but win big. They both have done that the majority of games. And they both have good wins out of conference. SDSU is 8-0 in quad 1 and 2 games. We are 7-4 in those games, but also have 2 bad losses.
I wasn't really trying to compare either to Illinois as a team, but perhaps conference v. conference. Maybe I'm being unfair to the teams of those conferences, but I wonder what affect it would have on the B1G (for example) to plop Fresno St. or Santa Clara for everyone to play.
 
#11
Bright side with NET is that even after 3 straight losses Illini haven't dropped much. Michigan and Rutgers on the verge of becoming Q1 wins again which would be great for the resume (currently 31, and 33).

Seems like this team is accurately ranked in that 25 - 35 range, and that's assuming a healthy Ayo. Winning one of the next two, and then 4 of the final 5 should be enough to solidify a spot off the bubble.

I think the key is they really can't afford a loss to NEB/NW/IND, and hitting that 20 win mark.
 
#12
Orange Krush '04 & '05
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...ollege-basketball-rankings-2019-20-version-30

Jay Bilas Index:

Tier 2: Elite Eight possibles
18. Illinois Fighting Illini

The Illini are not the pressing, scrambling team of last season but are a far better team because they have size, toughness and a terrific playmaker in Ayo Dosunmu, whose status is uncertain after a scary fall on Tuesday night. The only other issue? Consistent perimeter shooting. The Illini shoot barely 30% from deep, but they chase down and secure their own misses with the best in the business.
 
Likes: Retro62
#13
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...ollege-basketball-rankings-2019-20-version-30

Jay Bilas Index:

Tier 2: Elite Eight possibles
18. Illinois Fighting Illini

The Illini are not the pressing, scrambling team of last season but are a far better team because they have size, toughness and a terrific playmaker in Ayo Dosunmu, whose status is uncertain after a scary fall on Tuesday night. The only other issue? Consistent perimeter shooting. The Illini shoot barely 30% from deep, but they chase down and secure their own misses with the best in the business.
Good to see the respect from the national guys.

Its hard for me to predict what this team is capable of because they play to the competition whether its Maryland/MSU or Miami/Nichols. I could totally see them making a run or losing first round at this point.
 
#14
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
NET Men's Basketball Rankings (thru 2/12/20):

8 MD
11 MSU
18 PSU
22 OSU
26 Iowa
30 Mich
31 Purdue
32 Wisc
33 Rutgers
36 Illinois
40 Minny
64 IU
154 NU
168 Nebby

Things are starting to look pretty grim for Indiana.
 
#15
NET Men's Basketball Rankings (thru 2/12/20):

8 MD
11 MSU
18 PSU
22 OSU
26 Iowa
30 Mich
31 Purdue
32 Wisc
33 Rutgers
36 Illinois
40 Minny
64 IU
154 NU
168 Nebby

Things are starting to look pretty grim for Indiana.
Yeah, they are ruining our dream of twelve B1G teams in the NCAA Tournament, but I will forgive them. /s
 
#16
NET Men's Basketball Rankings (thru 2/12/20):

8 MD
11 MSU
18 PSU
22 OSU
26 Iowa
30 Mich
31 Purdue
32 Wisc
33 Rutgers
36 Illinois
40 Minny
64 IU
154 NU
168 Nebby

Things are starting to look pretty grim for Indiana.
Assume their win against Iowa last night helps a bit
 
#17
I'm not overly comfortable with ours @ 36, given the next two. Am I wrong in thinking that? Still don't understand the NET.
 
#19
I'm not overly comfortable with ours @ 36, given the next two. Am I wrong in thinking that? Still don't understand the NET.
We're good at 36. I've posted this a few times, so I don't want to harp on it too much, but based on historical results only a couple teams in the top 45 won't get a bid. Usually, it's because there is something glaring such as NCState having the one of the 10 easiest non-conference schedules out of all 350 NCAA teams last year. Or, some teams don't have any meaningful road wins so they get left out, etc.

One of my missions is to help prevent worry creeping through the board since its been so long since the team has qualified for the tourney, haha.

Another thing worth mentioning is that out of the years I checked every single team with 7 or more Q1 wins has made the tourney. Right we have 5 with Rutgers home win sitting on the verge of being Q1.

There really isn't much history to compare the strength of the B10 in the modern era with the Quadrant emphasis, so that's an unknown how the committee will handle it. By the end of the B10 tournament there might be a few teams with 20 Q1 games, that's an absurd amount. So, I don't how the committee would hypothetically treat a team that has 15 losses, but played 20 Q1 games when comparing them to a team from the ACC thats played less than half as many Q1 games. (llini for example have already played 11, and Duke only 5).
 
#21
Just win against Nebraska, at Northwestern, Indiana, Iowa and the first BTT tourney game. That's 21 wins and a 12-8 conference record. Probably will end up being somewhere on the 8-10 line for the NCAAs.
 
#22
We're good at 36. I've posted this a few times, so I don't want to harp on it too much, but based on historical results only a couple teams in the top 45 won't get a bid. Usually, it's because there is something glaring such as NCState having the one of the 10 easiest non-conference schedules out of all 350 NCAA teams last year. Or, some teams don't have any meaningful road wins so they get left out, etc.

One of my missions is to help prevent worry creeping through the board since its been so long since the team has qualified for the tourney, haha.

Another thing worth mentioning is that out of the years I checked every single team with 7 or more Q1 wins has made the tourney. Right we have 5 with Rutgers home win sitting on the verge of being Q1.

There really isn't much history to compare the strength of the B10 in the modern era with the Quadrant emphasis, so that's an unknown how the committee will handle it. By the end of the B10 tournament there might be a few teams with 20 Q1 games, that's an absurd amount. So, I don't how the committee would hypothetically treat a team that has 15 losses, but played 20 Q1 games when comparing them to a team from the ACC thats played less than half as many Q1 games. (llini for example have already played 11, and Duke only 5).
Agreed, this year is going to be one of a kind.

Big Ten/Big East teams in top 50 - 17
Pac12/Big12/SEC/ACC - 19
 
#23
We are going to struggle I am afraid to even make the tournament. We should make it , but if:

@PSU loss
Nebraska win
Indiana win
Iowa win
@Northwestern loss
@tOSU loss

That would make us 18 - 12 (one of our wins does not count). That and a 1st round BTT loss and I don’t think we get in? Terrible out of conference results would do us in. At Northwestern will not easy.
 
#24
Tennessee
I

i am very confused if this was bad or just average coaching? Ayo is very important to this team as he is a guy who can get his own shot. Problem we have is we have very limited shooters and we don’t run very good offensive sets. We don’t have a real point guard to get guys like Frazier, Griffen and Kofi clean looks. We are going to struggle I am afraid to even make the tournament. We should make it , but if:

@PSU loss
Nebraska win
Indiana win
Iowa win
@Northwestern loss
@tOSU loss

That would make us 18 - 12 (one of our wins does not count). That and a 1st round BTT loss and I don’t think we get in? Terrible out of conference results would do us in. At Northwestern will not easy.
I can't see ILL losing to Northwestern, with or without Ayo.

Beat NW gives a 12-8 and conference and a probable win in the first BTT game.

All the ingredients are still there for a seven or higher seed in the tournament.
 
#25
I can't see ILL losing to Northwestern, with or without Ayo.

Beat NW gives a 12-8 and conference and a probable win in the first BTT game.

All the ingredients are still there for a seven or higher seed in the tournament.
I bet we are no more than like 6 point favorites it Northwestern. But let’s say we win that game (we should I agree). So 12-8 in the BiG and 19-11 overall going in to the BTT correct? I don’t think that gets us a top 4 seed and double bye in the BTT, so that means playing on Thursday against the likes of a Purdue, Minny, or Michigan we could loose that game so overall 19-12, that is bubblicious to its core?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.