NET Rankings / Bracketology

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#27
Not this year and not in this conference this year....solidly still in, seeding less than ideal.
That's where I'm at too. This conference is going to get 11 one way or another. The conference is ridiculous. Most every night it's two top 50 teams playing.

While we were a 4/5 three weeks ago, now we're probably looking at 9/10 when all the dust settles.
 
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#28
Not this year and not in this conference this year....solidly still in, seeding less than ideal.
Give me an 11 or 12 seed all day over a 8/9 seed. Still think this team can beat anyone if their shots are falling, but would love to have more margin for error against a 6 and 3 seed than an 8 and 1 seed.
 
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#29
Give me an 11 or 12 seed all day over a 8/9 seed. Still think this team can beat anyone if their shots are falling, but would love to have more margin for error against a 6 and 3 seed than an 8 and 1 seed.
Hope you guys are correct very concerned with our non con record and loosing big games at home. I really feel our margin of error is shrinking quite a bit. If we stumble against say IU or Iowa and loose all the road games? Yikes we will be very much on the bubble. We should get in I agree, but we can’t just keep loosing. After we get torched at PSU, I think we need 4 out of last 5. Still our 1st round tournament game will not be a pushover in the BTT.
 
#30
the Front Range
We still have a lot to prove. Our NET has been lagging behind most of the pack in the Big Ten (currently ranked 10th in the big ten - here's the Link). We need to get more signature wins under our belt. Winning at Penn St and beating iowa at home would be huge for this team.
 
#32
Regardless of how we finish (not winning at all withstanding) I thin we are at the worst a solid 8-9 and more likely a 6-7 seed when we get bracketed.
i think your dead wrong here AZ. I think we are bubble (Net in the 40’s?) and horrible losses out of con. Now if we win 5 out of our last 6 then we will be a 7 I agree. On the other had, win only 3 start to sweat as the BTT becomes very very important. In my opinion, you orange and blue glasses are tinting your view of the quality of this team and how the committee will view their record. They should get in, but is far from a lock right now.
 
#33
From Team Rankings.
After losing to Rutgers 72-57 yesterday, Illinois is now projected to finish the regular season 19-12 (11-9 Big Ten).

The odds that the Fighting Illini make the NCAA tournament are down to 47%, a decrease of 19% since yesterday.

We currently rank Illinois as the #34 team in the country, and the #10 team in the Big Ten.

Next game: Tue, Feb 18 at #13 Penn State. Our power ratings give the Fighting Illini a 29% chance to win.
 
#34
From Team Rankings.
After losing to Rutgers 72-57 yesterday, Illinois is now projected to finish the regular season 19-12 (11-9 Big Ten).

The odds that the Fighting Illini make the NCAA tournament are down to 47%, a decrease of 19% since yesterday.

We currently rank Illinois as the #34 team in the country, and the #10 team in the Big Ten.

Next game: Tue, Feb 18 at #13 Penn State. Our power ratings give the Fighting Illini a 29% chance to win.
If we lose on Tuesday (which I expect), we'd be at 16-10. For the prediction of 19-12 to come true, they believe we're going 3-2 in the last five. I'm guessing the assumed losses are Iowa and Ohio State, with the assumed wins being Northwestern, Nebraska and Indiana.

I have to believe that an 11 win Big Ten team is going to make the tournament. I won't say comfortably, but that should be enough. An important question is if that document takes being with or without Ayo into consideration. The 15 point loss to Rutgers obviously skewed the projections. With Ayo, we don't lose by 15(if at all).

If Ayo comes back, we'll be fine. If not, we're not a tournament team. That's the case for about 90% of the teams in the country. Take away the best player, heart and soul and go to guy of any team is going to create this situation.

If Ayo comes back, I see 4-1 with a BTT win in our future. If not, 3-2(or 2-3) with a first round BTT KO could very well be our fate.

Time will tell. That last 10 seconds vs MSU was very, very unfortunate.
 
#35
It seems we are better than Purdue, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska. We are roughly even with Rutgers, Ohio State, Indiana (we are probably better), Wisconsin, and Minnesota We are worse than Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa. If Ayo comes back after PSU and plays decent, we should be in the NCAA.
 
#36
It seems we are better than Purdue, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska. We are roughly even with Rutgers, Ohio State, Indiana (we are probably better), Wisconsin, and Minnesota We are worse than Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa. If Ayo comes back after PSU and plays decent, we should be in the NCAA.
The NET LOVES Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. They have the numbers in their favor driven by the non conference debacle. Losses to Miami (at home) and getting throttled vs Missouri (on a neutral site) and at Arizona by 20+ has put us in a perilous position. None of the teams above have those disasters on their resume.

We need a strong finish to eliminate that doubt. We had squashed it as of three weeks ago. A four(probably five) gave losing streak brings that back into play.
 
#37
Not time to panic yet! Rutgers is a good team that plays hard. Going in to the season we wanted to relevant, and be a team that got in the dance conversation every year. Guess what we are that team now with those quality player and recruits. 7 games ago I thought if we got through the toughest 8 game gauntlet of our season at 4-4 I'd be thrilled. We are 3-4 with at Penn St left. We'll be a heavy underdog in this one, but the schedule lightens up after that. I still see us finishing 12-8 in the B10 with 8-10 tourney seed. All in all I am still thrilled with the team we have.
 
#38
The NET LOVES Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. They have the numbers in their favor driven by the non conference debacle. Losses to Miami (at home) and getting throttled vs Missouri (on a neutral site) and at Arizona by 20+ has put us in a perilous position. None of the teams above have those disasters on their resume.

We need a strong finish to eliminate that doubt. We had squashed it as of three weeks ago. A four(probably five) gave losing streak brings that back into play.
Understand..but a system that loves Michigan and Purdue over us when we beat them home and away requires some judgement to take place beyond the raw numbers. Particularly, when Purdue is 14 and 12.
 
#39
Understand..but a system that loves Michigan and Purdue over us when we beat them home and away requires some judgement to take place beyond the raw numbers. Particularly, when Purdue is 14 and 12.
Unfortunately, when the selections are made, head to head does not come into play unless it is literally a situation where the two teams are vying for the last position. Conference records does not come into play. It is one teams resume vs the other 360(or whatever)teams. It gets into the "whole body of work" factor, which is what the NET took is supposed to address. So, while we took care of Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue, the whole body of work states that they have had a more impressive season on the whole. Michigan has a win over Gonzaga, while we lost to Miami and Missouri. That's a big, big deal.

The good news is that it doesn't take winning streaks vs losing streaks into consideration. That was the benefit or detriment when they used to use the what have you done in the last ten criteria. 16-9 is 16-9, regardless of how you arrived. Finally, you have to remember that one of our 16 wins doesn't count when it comes to the body of work because the opponent wasn't DI. The committee is really looking at 15-9.

So, while your point is understandable, the reality is the decision comes from Illinois vs the field and not Illinois vs the Big Ten.
 
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#40
St. Peters MO
Is it the quad when you play the game or is it adjusted to the quad after the season is over.
 
#44
you orange and blue glasses are tinting your view of the quality of this team and how the committee will view their record.
I don't wear glasses...my view of the quality of this team withstanding, I believe the commitee will see it for what it is...an middle/upper echelon team in the nations toughest conference. The quality of our conference is not in question, the level of team may or may not be...what remains of my vision on this team or yours may be different, I don't think the commitee will see this though.

The B1G conference play will weigh heavily on the seeding process imo.
 
#45
Geneseo, IL
It seems we are better than Purdue, Michigan, Northwestern, and Nebraska. We are roughly even with Rutgers, Ohio State, Indiana (we are probably better), Wisconsin, and Minnesota We are worse than Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State, and Iowa. If Ayo comes back after PSU and plays decent, we should be in the NCAA.
Not sure Illinois is better than Michigan right now.
 
#46
I don't wear glasses...my view of the quality of this team withstanding, I believe the commitee will see it for what it is...an middle/upper echelon team in the nations toughest conference. The quality of our conference is not in question, the level of team may or may not be...what remains of my vision on this team or yours may be different, I don't think the commitee will see this though.

The B1G conference play will weigh heavily on the seeding process imo.
hope your correct, but shy of winning 5 of our last 6, and/or a deep run in the BTT I think we are bubbling to the top. Now i will day 4 of 6 we are on the right side of bubble. Three of six and first round BTT loss? What a friendly wager on it? I really hope it is moot and we win at least 4 of 6, but if not beer says we are play in game with 3/6 and loss in 1st round.
 
#48
Forgottonia
I don’t expect us to win, but I do expect us to play better than we did against Rutgers. Will be very disappointed if we don’t.

My not so hot take is after this game we are likely almost down to zero margin for error. With a Net of 38 we are getting very close to the bubble. I’m not expecting Ayo to play, but realllly hope this is his last game out.
 
#49
I don’t expect us to win, but I do expect us to play better than we did against Rutgers. Will be very disappointed if we don’t.

My not so hot take is after this game we are likely almost down to zero margin for error. With a Net of 38 we are getting very close to the bubble. I’m not expecting Ayo to play, but realllly hope this is his last game out.
Yes the situation is getting pretty ugly. I almost think we need to win this one because even though the matchups are favorable, 5 straight is not likely.
 
#50
BU:1 Trash cans:0
Chicago
hope your correct, but shy of winning 5 of our last 6, and/or a deep run in the BTT I think we are bubbling to the top. Now i will day 4 of 6 we are on the right side of bubble. Three of six and first round BTT loss? What a friendly wager on it? I really hope it is moot and we win at least 4 of 6, but if not beer says we are play in game with 3/6 and loss in 1st round.
Bart Torvik still has us at a 92.1% chance to make the tournament. Projected 8.1 seed. We're still okay. The Big Ten is very likely going to send a bunch of teams to the tourney. We should be one of them.
 
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